Decadal predictability of the Atlantic Ocean in a coupled GCM: forecast skill and optimal perturbations using Linear Inverse Modelling

The decadal predictability of three-dimensional Atlantic Ocean anomalies is examined in a coupled global climate model (HadCM3) using a Linear Inverse Modelling (LIM) approach. It is found that the evolution of temperature and salinity in the Atlantic, and the strength of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC), can be effectively described by a linear dynamical system forced by white noise. The forecasts produced using this linear model are more skillful than other reference forecasts for several decades. Furthermore, significant non-normal amplification is found under several different norms. The regions from which this growth occurs are found to be fairly shallow and located in the far North Atlantic. Initially, anomalies in the Nordic Seas impact the MOC, and the anomalies then grow to fill the entire Atlantic basin, especially at depth, over one to three decades. It is found that the structure of the optimal initial condition for amplification is sensitive to the norm employed, but the initial growth seems to be dominated by MOC-related basin scale changes, irrespective of the choice of norm. The consistent identification of the far North Atlantic as the most sensitive region for small perturbations suggests that additional observations in this region would be optimal for constraining decadal climate predictions.

The PML for rough surface scattering

In this paper we investigate the use of the perfectly matched layer (PML) to truncate a time harmonic rough surface scattering problem in the direction away from the scatterer. We prove existence and uniqueness of the solution of the truncated problem as well as an error estimate depending on the thickness and composition of the layer. This global error estimate predicts a linear rate of convergence (under some conditions on the relative size of the real and imaginary parts of the PML function) rather than the usual exponential rate. We then consider scattering by a half-space and show that the solution of the PML truncated problem converges globally at most quadratically (up to logarithmic factors), providing support for our general theory. However we also prove exponential convergence on compact subsets. We continue by proposing an iterative correction method for the PML truncated problem and, using our estimate for the PML approximation, prove convergence of this method. Finally we provide some numerical results in 2D.(C) 2008 IMACS. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Linear Contributions of Different Time Scales to Teleconnectivity

The contributions of different time scales to extratropical teleconnections are examined. By applying empirical orthogonal functions and correlation analyses to reanalysis data, it is shown that eddies with periods shorter than 10 days have no linear contribution to teleconnectivity. Instead, synoptic variability follows wavelike patterns along the storm tracks, interpreted as propagating baroclinic disturbances. In agreement with preceding studies, it is found that teleconnections such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Pacific–North America (PNA) pattern occur only at low frequencies, typically for periods more than 20 days. Low-frequency potential vorticity variability is shown to follow patterns analogous to known teleconnections but with shapes that differ considerably from them. It is concluded that the role, if any, of synoptic eddies in determining and forcing teleconnections needs to be sought in nonlinear interactions with the slower transients. The present results demonstrate that daily variability of teleconnection indices cannot be interpreted in terms of the teleconnection patterns, only the slow part of the variability.

A survey on sampling and probe methods for inverse problems

The goal of the review is to provide a state-of-the-art survey on sampling and probe methods for the solution of inverse problems. Further, a configuration approach to some of the problems will be presented. We study the concepts and analytical results for several recent sampling and probe methods. We will give an introduction to the basic idea behind each method using a simple model problem and then provide some general formulation in terms of particular configurations to study the range of the arguments which are used to set up the method. This provides a novel way to present the algorithms and the analytic arguments for their investigation in a variety of different settings. In detail we investigate the probe method (Ikehata), linear sampling method (Colton-Kirsch) and the factorization method (Kirsch), singular sources Method (Potthast), no response test (Luke-Potthast), range test (Kusiak, Potthast and Sylvester) and the enclosure method (Ikehata) for the solution of inverse acoustic and electromagnetic scattering problems. The main ideas, approaches and convergence results of the methods are presented. For each method, we provide a historical survey about applications to different situations.

Linear and nonlinear generalized Fourier transforms

This article presents an overview of a transform method for solving linear and integrable nonlinear partial differential equations. This new transform method, proposed by Fokas, yields a generalization and unification of various fundamental mathematical techniques and, in particular, it yields an extension of the Fourier transform method.

On integral equation and least squares methods for scattering by diffraction gratings

In this paper we consider the scattering of a plane acoustic or electromagnetic wave by a one-dimensional, periodic rough surface. We restrict the discussion to the case when the boundary is sound soft in the acoustic case, perfectly reflecting with TE polarization in the EM case, so that the total field vanishes on the boundary. We propose a uniquely solvable first kind integral equation formulation of the problem, which amounts to a requirement that the normal derivative of the Green's representation formula for the total field vanish on a horizontal line below the scattering surface. We then discuss the numerical solution by Galerkin's method of this (ill-posed) integral equation. We point out that, with two particular choices of the trial and test spaces, we recover the so-called SC (spectral-coordinate) and SS (spectral-spectral) numerical schemes of DeSanto et al., Waves Random Media, 8, 315-414 1998. We next propose a new Galerkin scheme, a modification of the SS method that we term the SS* method, which is an instance of the well-known dual least squares Galerkin method. We show that the SS* method is always well-defined and is optimally convergent as the size of the approximation space increases. Moreover, we make a connection with the classical least squares method, in which the coefficients in the Rayleigh expansion of the solution are determined by enforcing the boundary condition in a least squares sense, pointing out that the linear system to be solved in the SS* method is identical to that in the least squares method. Using this connection we show that (reflecting the ill-posed nature of the integral equation solved) the condition number of the linear system in the SS* and least squares methods approaches infinity as the approximation space increases in size. We also provide theoretical error bounds on the condition number and on the errors induced in the numerical solution computed as a result of ill-conditioning. Numerical results confirm the convergence of the SS* method and illustrate the ill-conditioning that arises.