Association study of genes related to bone formation and resorption and the extent of radiographic change in ankylosing spondylitis

Objective: To identify genetic associations with severity of radiographic damage in ankylosing spondylitis (AS). Method: We studied 1537 AS cases of European descent; all fulfilled the modified New York Criteria. Radiographic severity was assessed from digitised lateral radiographs of the cervical and lumbar spine using the modified Stoke Ankylosing Spondylitis Spinal Score (mSASSS). A two-phase genotyping design was used. In phase 1, 498 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were genotyped in 688 cases; these were selected to capture >90% of the common haplotypic variation in the exons, exon-intron boundaries, and 5 kb flanking DNA in the 5' and 3' UTR of 74 genes involved in anabolic or catabolic bone pathways. In phase 2, 15 SNPs exhibiting p<0.05 were genotyped in a further cohort of 830 AS cases; results were analysed both separately and in combination with the discovery phase data. Association was tested by contingency tables after separating the samples into 'mild' and 'severe' groups, defined as the bottom and top 40% by mSASSS, adjusted for gender and disease duration. Results: Experiment-wise association was observed with the SNP rs8092336 (combined OR 0.32, p=1.2×10-5), which lies within RANK (receptor activator of NF?B), a gene involved in osteoclastogenesis, and in the interaction between T cells and dendritic cells. Association was also found with the SNP rs1236913 in PTGS1 (prostaglandin-endoperoxide synthase 1, cyclooxygenase 1), giving an OR of 0.53 (p=2.6×10-3). There was no observed association between radiographic severity and HLA-B*27. Conclusions: These findings support roles for bone resorption and prostaglandins pathways in the osteoproliferative changes in AS.

Co-benefits of addressing climate change can motivate action around the world

Personal and political action on climate change is traditionally thought to be motivated by people accepting its reality and importance. However, convincing the public that climate change is real faces powerful ideological obstacles1, 2, 3, 4, and climate change is slipping in public importance in many countries5, 6. Here we investigate a different approach, identifying whether potential co-benefits of addressing climate change7 could motivate pro-environmental behaviour around the world for both those convinced and unconvinced that climate change is real. We describe an integrated framework for assessing beliefs about co-benefits8, distinguishing social conditions (for example, economic development, reduced pollution or disease) and community character (for example, benevolence, competence). Data from all inhabited continents (24 countries; 6,196 participants) showed that two co-benefit types, Development (economic and scientific advancement) and Benevolence (a more moral and caring community), motivated public, private and financial actions to address climate change to a similar degree as believing climate change is important. Critically, relationships were similar for both convinced and unconvinced participants, showing that co-benefits can motivate action across ideological divides. These relationships were also independent of perceived climate change importance, and could not be explained by political ideology, age, or gender. Communicating co-benefits could motivate action on climate change where traditional approaches have stalled.

Online hidden Markov model parameter estimation and minimax robust quickest change detection in uncertain stochastic processes

Stochastic (or random) processes are inherent to numerous fields of human endeavour including engineering, science, and business and finance. This thesis presents multiple novel methods for quickly detecting and estimating uncertainties in several important classes of stochastic processes. The significance of these novel methods is demonstrated by employing them to detect aircraft manoeuvres in video signals in the important application of autonomous mid-air collision avoidance.

Predictors of physical activity in colorectal cancer survivors after participation in a telephone-delivered multiple health behavior change intervention

Purpose: Physical activity improves the health outcomes of colorectal cancer (CRC) survivors, yet few are exercising at levels known to yield health benefits. Baseline demographic, clinical, behavioral, and psychosocial predictors of physical activity at 12 months were investigated in CRC survivors. Methods: Participants were CRC survivors (n = 410) who completed a 12-month multiple health behavior change intervention trial (CanChange). The outcome variable was 12 month sufficient physical activity (≥150 min of moderate–vigorous physical activity/week). Baseline predictors included demographics and clinical variables, health behaviors, and psychosocial variables. Results: Multivariate linear regression revealed that baseline sufficient physical activity (p < 0.001), unemployment (p = 0.004), private health insurance (p = 0.040), higher cancer-specific quality of life (p = 0.031) and higher post-traumatic growth (p = 0.008) were independent predictors of sufficient physical activity at 12 months. The model explained 28.6 % of the variance. Conclusions: Assessment of demographics, health behaviors, and psychosocial functioning following a diagnosis of CRC may help to develop effective physical activity programs.

A randomized controlled trial of a multiple health behavior change intervention delivered to colorectal cancer survivors: Effects on sedentary behavior

BACKGROUND Sedentary behavior may independently contribute to morbidity and mortality among survivors of colorectal cancer. In the current study, the authors assessed whether a telephone-delivered multiple health behavior change intervention had an effect on the sedentary behavior of recently diagnosed colorectal cancer survivors. METHODS A total of 410 participants were recruited through the Queensland Cancer Registry and randomized to the health coaching (intervention) or usual-care (control) group. Eleven health coaching sessions addressing multiple health behaviors, including sedentary behavior, were delivered over a period of 6 months. Data were collected at baseline (before randomization), at 6 months, and at 12 months via a telephone interview. RESULTS At 12 months, there was a significant decrease noted in the hours per day of sedentary time in both the health coaching (−1.21; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], −1.71 to −0.70) and usual-care groups (−0.55; 95% CI, −1.06 to −0.05), but the between-group difference was not found to be statistically significant (−0.65; 95% CI, −1.37 to 0.06 [P = .07]). In stratified subgroup analyses, the multiple health behavior change intervention was found to have a significant effect on total sedentary time (hours/day) at 12 months in survivors of colorectal cancer who were aged > 60 years (−0.90; 95% CI, −1.80 to −0.01 [P = .05]), male (−1.33; 95% CI, −2.44 to −0.21 [P = .02]), and nonobese (−1.10; 95% CI, −1.96 to −0.25; [P = .01]). CONCLUSIONS Incorporating simple messages about limiting sedentary behaviors into a multiple health behavior change intervention was found to have modest effects on sedentary behavior. A sedentary behavior-specific intervention strategy may be required to achieve substantial changes in sedentary behavior among colorectal cancer survivors

Mapping the arts: Industry concentrations, distribution, and change in the US, 1980-2010

This paper studies arts industries in all 366 US metropolitan statistical areas between 1980 and 2010. Our analysis provides evidence that the arts are an important component of many regional economies, but also highlights their volatility. After radical growth and diffusion between 1980 and 2000, in the last decade, the arts industries are defined more by shrinkage and reconcentration in fewer metropolitan areas. Further, we find that the vast majority of metros have strengths in particular sets of arts industries. As we discuss in the conclusion, these conditions present challenges and opportunities for urban cultural policy that goes beyond the current focus on the arts as consumption amenities.

Use of observed within-person variation of cardiac troponin in emergency department patients for determination of biological variation and percentage and absolute reference change values

BACKGROUND Many patients presenting to the emergency department (ED) for assessment of possible acute coronary syndrome (ACS) have low cardiac troponin concentrations that change very little on repeat blood draw. It is unclear if a lack of change in cardiac troponin concentration can be used to identify acutely presenting patients at low risk of ACS. METHODS We used the hs-cTnI assay from Abbott Diagnostics, which can detect cTnI in the blood of nearly all people. We identified a population of ED patients being assessed for ACS with repeat cTnI measurement who ultimately were proven to have no acute cardiac disease at the time of presentation. We used data from the repeat sampling to calculate total within-person CV (CV(T)) and, knowing the assay analytical CV (CV(A)), we could calculate within-person biological variation (CV(i)), reference change values (RCVs), and absolute RCV delta cTnI concentrations. RESULTS We had data sets on 283 patients. Men and women had similar CV(i) values of approximately 14%, which was similar at all concentrations <40 ng/L. The biological variation was not dependent on the time interval between sample collections (t = 1.5-17 h). The absolute delta critical reference change value was similar no matter what the initial cTnI concentration was. More than 90% of subjects had a critical reference change value <5 ng/L, and 97% had values of <10 ng/L. CONCLUSIONS With this hs-cTnI assay, delta cTnI seems to be a useful tool for rapidly identifying ED patients at low risk for possible ACS.

Facing the wave of change: Stakeholder perspectives on climate adaptation for Australian seafood supply chains

Climate change is one of the most important issues confronting the sustainable supply of seafood, with projections suggesting major effects on wild and farmed fisheries worldwide. While climate change has been a consideration for Australian fisheries and aquaculture management, emphasis in both research and adaptation effort has been at the production end of supply chains—impacts further along the chain have been overlooked to date. A holistic biophysical and socio-economic system view of seafood industries, as represented by end-to-end supply chains, may lead to an additional set of options in the face of climate change, thus maximizing opportunities for improved fishery profitability, while also reducing the potential for maladaptation. In this paper, we explore Australian seafood industry stakeholder perspectives on potential options for adaptation along seafood supply chains based on future potential scenarios. Stakeholders, representing wild capture and aquaculture industries, provided a range of actions targeting different stages of the supply chain. Overall, proposed strategies were predominantly related to the production end of the supply chain, suggesting that greater attention in developing adaptation options is needed at post-production stages. However, there are chain-wide adaptation strategies that can present win–win scenarios, where commercial objectives beyond adaptation can also be addressed alongside direct or indirect impacts of climate. Likewise, certain adaptation strategies in place at one stage of the chain may have varying implications on other stages of the chain. These findings represent an important step in understanding the role of supply chains in effective adaptation of fisheries and aquaculture industries to climate change.

Creating change in government to address the social determinants of health: How can efforts be improved?

Background The evidence base for the impact of social determinants of health has been strengthened considerably in the last decade. Increasingly, the public health field is using this as a foundation for arguments and actions to change government policies. The Health in All Policies (HiAP) approach, alongside recommendations from the 2010 Marmot Review into health inequalities in the UK (which we refer to as the ‘Fairness Agenda’), go beyond advocating for the redesign of individual policies, to shaping the government structures and processes that facilitate the implementation of these policies. In doing so, public health is drawing on recent trends in public policy towards ‘joined up government’, where greater integration is sought between government departments, agencies and actors outside of government. Methods In this paper we provide a meta-synthesis of the empirical public policy research into joined up government, drawing out characteristics associated with successful joined up initiatives. We use this thematic synthesis as a basis for comparing and contrasting emerging public health interventions concerned with joined-up action across government. Results We find that HiAP and the Fairness Agenda exhibit some of the characteristics associated with successful joined up initiatives, however they also utilise ‘change instruments’ that have been found to be ineffective. Moreover, we find that – like many joined up initiatives – there is room for improvement in the alignment between the goals of the interventions and their design. Conclusion Drawing on public policy studies, we recommend a number of strategies to increase the efficacy of current interventions. More broadly, we argue that up-stream interventions need to be ‘fit-for-purpose’, and cannot be easily replicated from one context to the next.

Spatially explicit perceptions of ecosystem services and land cover change in forested regions of Borneo

Spatially explicit information on local perceptions of ecosystem services is needed to inform land use planning within rapidly changing landscapes. In this paper we spatially modelled local people's use and perceptions of benefits from forest ecosystem services in Borneo, from interviews of 1837 people in 185 villages. Questions related to provisioning, cultural/spiritual, regulating and supporting ecosystem services derived from forest, and attitudes towards forest conversion. We used boosted regression trees (BRTs) to combine interview data with social and environmental predictors to understand spatial variation of perceptions across Borneo. Our results show that people use a variety of products from intact and highly degraded forests. Perceptions of benefits from forests were strongest: in human-altered forest landscapes for cultural and spiritual benefits; in human-altered and intact forests landscapes for health benefits; intact forest for direct health benefits, such as medicinal plants; and in regions with little forest and extensive plantations, for environmental benefits, such as climatic impacts from deforestation. Forest clearing for small scale agriculture was predicted to be widely supported yet less so for large-scale agriculture. Understanding perceptions of rural communities in dynamic, multi-use landscapes is important where people are often directly affected by the decline in ecosystem services.

Effects of a multiple health behavior change intervention for colorectal cancer survivors on psychosocial outcomes and quality of life: A randomized controlled trial

Background Multiple health behavior change can ameliorate adverse effects of cancer. Purpose The purpose of this study was to determine the effects of a multiple health behavior change intervention (CanChange) for colorectal cancer survivors on psychosocial outcomes and quality of life. Methods A total of 410 colorectal cancer survivors were randomized to a 6-month telephone-based health coaching intervention (11 sessions using acceptance and commitment therapy strategies focusing on physical activity, weight management, diet, alcohol, and smoking) or usual care. Posttraumatic growth, spirituality, acceptance, mindfulness, distress, and quality of life were assessed at baseline, 6 and 12 months. Results Significant intervention effects were observed for posttraumatic growth at 6 (7.5, p < 0.001) and 12 months (4.1, p = 0.033), spirituality at 6 months (1.8, p = 0.011), acceptance at 6 months (0.2, p = 0.005), and quality of life at 6 (0.8, p = 0.049) and 12 months (0.9, p = 0.037). Conclusions The intervention improved psychosocial outcomes and quality of life (physical well-being) at 6 months with most effects still present at 12 months. (Trial Registration Number: ACTRN12608000399392).

Studying change in popular culture: A "middle-range" approach

"This chapter reviews the capacity of the discipline field to account for the velocity and quality of digitally-driven transformations, while making a case for a "middle range" approach that steers between unbridled optimism ("all-change") and determined scepticism ("Continuity") about the potential of such change. The chapter focuses on online screen distribution as a case study, considering the evidence for, and significance of, change in industry structure and the main payers, how content is produced and by whom, the nature of content, and the degree to which online screen distribution has reached thresholds of mainstream popularity."

Cumulative effects on the change of residual value in PPP projects: A comparative case study

Public private partnerships (PPPs) have been adopted widely to provide public facilities and services. According to the PPP agreement, PPP projects would be transferred to the public sector. However, problems related to the subsequent management of ongoing PPP projects have not been studied thoroughly. Residual value risk (RVR) can occur if the public sector cannot obtain the project in the desired conditions as required in the agreement when a project is being transferred. RVR has been identified as an important risk in PPPs and has greatly influenced the outputs of the projects. In order to further observe the change of residual value (RV) during the process of PPP projects and to reveal the internal mechanism for reducing the RVR, a comparative case study of two PPP projects in mainland China and Hong Kong was conducted. Based on the case study, different factors leading to RVR and a series of key risk indicators (KRIs) were identified. The comparison demonstrates that RVR is an important risk that could influence the success of PPP projects. The cumulative effects during the concession period can play significant roles in the occurrence of RVR. Additionally, the cumulative effects in different cases can make the RVR different because of different stakeholders’ efforts on the projects and ways to treat RVR. Finally, alternatives for the public sector to treat RVR were proposed. The findings of this research can reduce RVR and improve the performance of PPP projects.

Climate change and forests in India

Forests play a critical role in addressing climate change concerns in the broader context of global change and sustainable development. Forests are linked to climate change in three ways. i) Forests are a source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions: ii) Forests offer mitigation opportunities to stabilise GHG concentrations: iii) Forests are impacted by climate change. This paper reviews studies related to climate change and forests in India: first, the studies estimating carbon inventory for the Indian land use change and forestry sector (LUCF), then the different models and mitigation potential estimates for the LUCF sector in India. Finally it reviews the studies on the impact of climate change on forest ecosystems in India, identifying the implications for net primary productivity and bio-diversity. The paper highlights data, modelling and research gaps relevant to the GHG inventory, mitigation potential and vulnerability and impact assessments for the forest sector in India.

Problems with geoengineering schemes to combat climate change

The accelerated rate of increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration in recent years has revived the idea of stabilizing the global climate through geoengineering schemes. Majority of the proposed geoengineering schemes will attempt to reduce the amount of solar radiation absorbed by our planet. Climate modelling studies of these so called 'sunshade geoengineering schemes' show that global warming from increasing concentrations of CO2 can be mitigated by intentionally manipulating the amount of sunlight absorbed by the climate system. These studies also suggest that the residual changes could be large on regional scales, so that climate change may not be mitigated on a local basis. More recent modelling studies have shown that these schemes could lead to a slow-down in the global hydrological cycle. Other problems such as changes in the terrestrial carbon cycle and ocean acidification remain unsolved by sunshade geoengineering schemes. In this article, I review the proposed geoengineering schemes, results from climate models and discuss why geoengineering is not the best option to deal with climate change.