896 resultados para Law of Propagation of Uncertainty


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Para reseñar los efectos de la Constitución Española en el Derecho Privado Español se recuerdan en primer lugar algunas generalidades sobe el Derecho Constitucional Español y a continuación se repasan, a título de ejemplo, los efectos de la Constitución sobre los derechos de la personalidad, el derecho a la propiedad privada y el derecho al matrimonio.

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Whilst the principle of proportionality indisputably plays a crucial role in the protection of fundamental rights, it is still unclear to what extent it applies to other fields in international law. The paper therefore explores the role it plays in selected fields of public international law, beyond human rights. The examination begins in the classical domain of reprisals and in maritime boundary delimitation and continues to analyse the role played in the law of multilateral trade regulation of the World Trade Organization and in bilateral investment protection. In an attempt to explain differences in recourse to proportionality in the various fields, we develop in our conclusions a distinction between horizontal and vertical constellations of legal protection.

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Dust attenuation affects nearly all observational aspects of galaxy evolution, yet very little is known about the form of the dust-attenuation law in the distant universe. Here, we model the spectral energy distributions of galaxies at z ~ 1.5–3 from CANDELS with rest-frame UV to near-IR imaging under different assumptions about the dust law, and compare the amount of inferred attenuated light with the observed infrared (IR) luminosities. Some individual galaxies show strong Bayesian evidence in preference of one dust law over another, and this preference agrees with their observed location on the plane of infrared excess (IRX, L_TIR/L_UV) and UV slope (β). We generalize the shape of the dust law with an empirical model, A_ λ,σ =E(B-V)k_ λ (λ / λ v)^ σ where k_λ is the dust law of Calzetti et al., and show that there exists a correlation between the color excess E(B-V) and tilt δ with δ =(0.62±0.05)log(E(B-V))+(0.26±0.02). Galaxies with high color excess have a shallower, starburst-like law, and those with low color excess have a steeper, SMC-like law. Surprisingly, the galaxies in our sample show no correlation between the shape of the dust law and stellar mass, star formation rate, or β. The change in the dust law with color excess is consistent with a model where attenuation is caused by scattering, a mixed star–dust geometry, and/or trends with stellar population age, metallicity, and dust grain size. This rest-frame UV-to-near-IR method shows potential to constrain the dust law at even higher redshifts (z>3).

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In Apriaden Pty Ltd v Seacrest Pty Ltd the Victorian Court of Appeal decided that termination of a lease under common law contractual principles following repudiation is an alternative to reliance upon an express forfeiture provision in the lease and that it is outside the sphere of statutory protections given against the enforcing of a forfeiture. The balance of authority supports the first aspect of the decision. This article focuses on the second aspect of it, which is a significant development in the law of leases. The article considers the implications of this decision for essential terms of clauses in leases, argues that common law termination for breach of essential terms should be subject to compliance with these statutory requirements and, as an alternative, suggests a way forward through appropriate law reform, considering whether the recent Victorian reform goes far enough.

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The decision as to which procurement system to adopt is a complex and challenging task for clients of construction projects. Despite a plethora of tools and techniques available for selecting a procurement method, clients are still uncertain about what method to adopt for a given construction project to achieve success. This paper examines ‘how and why’ procurement methods are selected by public sector clients in Queensland (QLD) and Western Australia (WA). Findings from workshops with senior managers in procurement selection revealed that traditional lump sum methods (TLS) are preferred even though alternative forms could be better suited for a given project. Participants of the workshops agreed that alternative procurement forms should be considered for projects but an embedded culture of uncertainty avoidance meant the selection of TLS methods. It was perceived that only a limited number of contractors operating in the marketplace have the resources and experience to deliver projects using the non-traditional methods.

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This study investigated the effects of factors like member satisfaction and social rituals on desirable outcomes such as attendance, intention to rejoin and merchandise sales. This study focuses on the inaugural members of a new team in Australia’s A-League to gain insight into how loyalty develops amongst fans of new sporting organisations. The results show the importance to sports marketers of satisfying members and building ritual behaviour, as both are correlated with all of the positive outcomes investigated here.

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Objective We aimed to predict sub-national spatial variation in numbers of people infected with Schistosoma haematobium, and associated uncertainties, in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, prior to implementation of national control programmes. Methods We used national field survey datasets covering a contiguous area 2,750 × 850 km, from 26,790 school-aged children (5–14 years) in 418 schools. Bayesian geostatistical models were used to predict prevalence of high and low intensity infections and associated 95% credible intervals (CrI). Numbers infected were determined by multiplying predicted prevalence by numbers of school-aged children in 1 km2 pixels covering the study area. Findings Numbers of school-aged children with low-intensity infections were: 433,268 in Burkina Faso, 872,328 in Mali and 580,286 in Niger. Numbers with high-intensity infections were: 416,009 in Burkina Faso, 511,845 in Mali and 254,150 in Niger. 95% CrIs (indicative of uncertainty) were wide; e.g. the mean number of boys aged 10–14 years infected in Mali was 140,200 (95% CrI 6200, 512,100). Conclusion National aggregate estimates for numbers infected mask important local variation, e.g. most S. haematobium infections in Niger occur in the Niger River valley. Prevalence of high-intensity infections was strongly clustered in foci in western and central Mali, north-eastern and northwestern Burkina Faso and the Niger River valley in Niger. Populations in these foci are likely to carry the bulk of the urinary schistosomiasis burden and should receive priority for schistosomiasis control. Uncertainties in predicted prevalence and numbers infected should be acknowledged and taken into consideration by control programme planners.

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The expansion of economics to ‘non-market topics’ has received increased attention in recent years. The economics of sports (football) is such a sub-field. This paper reports empirical evidence of team and referee performances in the FIFA World Cup 2002. The results reveal that being a hosting nation has a significant impact on the probability of winning a game. Furthermore, the strength of a team measured with the FIFA World Ranking does not play the important role presumed, which indicates that the element of uncertainty is working. The findings also indicate that the influence of a referee on the game result should not be neglected. Finally, the previous World Cup experiences seem to have the strongest impact on referees' performances during the game.

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There is not a single, coherent, jurisprudence for civil society organisations. Pressure for a clearly enuciated body of law applying to the whole of this sector of society continues to increase. The rise of third sector scholarship, the retreat of the welfare state, the rediscovery of the concept of civil society and pressures to strengthen social capital have all contributed to an ongoing stream of inquiry into the laws that regulate and favour civil society organisations. There have been almost thirty inquiries over the last sixty years into the doctrine of charitable purpose in common law countries. Those inquiries have established that problems with the law applying to civil society organisations are rooted in the common law adopting a ‘technical’ definition of charitable purpose and the failure of this body of law to develop in response to societal changes. Even though it is now well recognised that problems with law reform stem from problems inherent in the doctrine of charitable purpose, statutory reforms have merely ‘bolted on’ additions to the flawed ‘technical’ definition. In this way the scope of operation of the law has been incrementally expanded to include a larger number of civil society organisations. This piecemeal approach continues the exclusion of most civil society organisations from the law of charities discourse, and fails to address the underlying jurisprudential problems. Comprehensive reform requires revisiting the foundational problems embedded in the doctrine of charitable purpose, being informed by recent scholarship, and a paradigm shift that extends the doctrine to include all civil society organisations. Scholarly inquiry into civil society organisations, particularly from within the discipline of neoclassical economics, has elucidated insights that can inform legal theory development. This theory development requires decoupling the two distinct functions performed by the doctrine of charitable purpose which are: setting the scope of regulation, and determining entitlement to favours, such as tax exemption. If the two different functions of the doctrine are considered separately in the light of theoretical insights from other disciplines, the architecture for a jurisprudence emerges that facilitates regulation, but does not necessarily favour all civil society organisations. Informed by that broader discourse it is argued that when determining the scope of regulation, civil society organisations are identified by reference to charitable purposes that are not technically defined. These charitable purposes are in essence purposes which are: Altruistic, for public Benefit, pursued without Coercion. These charitable puposes differentiate civil society organisations from organisations in the three other sectors namely; Business, which is manifest in lack of altruism; Government, which is characterised by coercion; and Family, which is characterised by benefits being private not public. When determining entitlement to favour, it is theorised that it is the extent or nature of the public benefit evident in the pursuit of a charitable purpose that justifies entitlement to favour. Entitlement to favour based on the extent of public benefit is the theoretically simpler – the greater the public benefit the greater the justification for favour. To be entitled to favour based on the nature of a purpose being charitable the purpose must fall within one of three categories developed from the first three heads of Pemsel’s case (the landmark categorisation case on taxation favour). The three categories proposed are: Dealing with Disadvantage, Encouraging Edification; and Facilitating Freedom. In this alternative paradigm a recast doctrine of charitable purpose underpins a jurisprudence for civil society in a way similar to the way contract underpins the jurisprudence for the business sector, the way that freedom from arbitrary coercion underpins the jurisprudence of the government sector and the way that equity within families underpins succession and family law jurisprudence for the family sector. This alternative architecture for the common law, developed from the doctrine of charitable purpose but inclusive of all civil society purposes, is argued to cover the field of the law applying to civil society organisations and warrants its own third space as a body of law between public law and private law in jurisprudence.

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The reliability of Critical Infrastructure is considered to be a fundamental expectation of modern societies. These large-scale socio-technical systems have always, due to their complex nature, been faced with threats challenging their ongoing functioning. However, increasing uncertainty in addition to the trend of infrastructure fragmentation has made reliable service provision not only a key organisational goal, but a major continuity challenge: especially given the highly interdependent network conditions that exist both regionally and globally. The notion of resilience as an adaptive capacity supporting infrastructure reliability under conditions of uncertainty and change has emerged as a critical capacity for systems of infrastructure and the organisations responsible for their reliable management. This study explores infrastructure reliability through the lens of resilience from an organisation and system perspective using two recognised resilience-enhancing management practices, High Reliability Theory (HRT) and Business Continuity Management (BCM) to better understand how this phenomenon manifests within a partially fragmented (corporatised) critical infrastructure industry – The Queensland Electricity Industry. The methodological approach involved a single case study design (industry) with embedded sub-units of analysis (organisations), utilising in-depth interviews and document analysis to illicit findings. Derived from detailed assessment of BCM and Reliability-Enhancing characteristics, findings suggest that the industry as a whole exhibits resilient functioning, however this was found to manifest at different levels across the industry and in different combinations. Whilst there were distinct differences in respect to resilient capabilities at the organisational level, differences were less marked at a systems (industry) level, with many common understandings carried over from the pre-corporatised operating environment. These Heritage Factors were central to understanding the systems level cohesion noted in the work. The findings of this study are intended to contribute to a body of knowledge encompassing resilience and high reliability in critical infrastructure industries. The research also has value from a practical perspective, as it suggests a range of opportunities to enhance resilient functioning under increasingly interdependent, networked conditions.

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This research investigated the impact of Education Queensland's employment policy and practices for beginning secondary teachers appointed on temporary engagement. The context was the public secondary school sector within the state of Queensland, Australia. The study was set within a context of the changing nature of work from full-time permanent employment towards casual, fixed-term contracts, temporary and part-time employment, a trend reflected in the employment patterns for teachers within Australia. Two broad categories of literature relating to the research problem of this thesis were reviewed, namely the beginning teacher and permanency or tenure. The focus in the research literature on beginning teachers was the professional experiences of teachers within the classroom and school. There was a paucity of research that considered the working and industrial conditions of temporary employment for beginning teachers or the personal and professional implications of this form of employment. The review of the context and literature was conceptualised as a Beginning Temporary Teacher Theoretical Framework which served to inform the study. Using a qualitative case study methodology, the research techniques employed for the thesis were semi-structured interview and document analysis. A simultaneously conducted research project in which the researcher participated entitled 'Winning the Lottery? Beginning Teachers on Temporary Engagement' foregrounded this thesis in terms of refining the research question, contributing to the literature and in the selection of the participants. For this case study the perspectives of four distinct yet inter-related categories of professionals were sought. These included four beginning secondary teachers, three school administrators, a Senior Personnel Officer with Education Queensland, and a representative from the Queensland Teachers' Union. The research findings indicated that none of the beginning teachers or other professionals viewed starting a career in teaching on temporary engagement as the ideal. The negative features identified were the differential treatment received and the high level of uncertainty associated with temporary employment. Differential treatment tended to indicate 'less' entitlements, in terms of access to induction and professional development, recreational and sick leave, acceptance by and expectations of other colleagues, and avenues of redress in grievance cases. Moreover, interviews indicated a high level of uncertainty in terms of starting within the teaching profession, commencing at a new school, and a regular income. In addition, frequent changes in schools and/or cohorts of students exacerbated levels of uncertainty. The beginning teachers reported significantly decreased motivation, self-esteem and sense of belonging, and increased stress levels. There was an even more marked negative impact on those beginning teachers who had experienced a higher number of temporary engagements and schools in their first year of teaching. Conversely, strong staff support and a reasonable length of time in the one school improved the quality of the beginning teachers' experiences. The overall impact of being on temporary engagement resulted in delayed permanent position appointments, decreased commitment to particular schools and to Education Queensland as the employing authority, and for two of the beginning teachers, it produced a desire to seek alternative employment. The implementation of Education Queensland's policies relating to working conditions and entitlements for these temporary beginning teachers at the school level was revealed to be less than satisfactory. There was a tendency towards 'just-in- time' management of the beginning teacher on temporary engagement. The beginning teachers received 'less-than-messages' about access to and use of departmental documentation, support through induction and professional development, and their transition from temporary to permanent employment. To ensure a more systematic, supportive and inclusive process for managing the temporary beginning teacher, a conceptual framework entitled 'Continuums of Tension' was developed. The four continuums included permanent employment - temporary employment; system perspective - individual perspective; teaching as a profession - teaching as a job; and the permanent beginning teacher - university graduate. The general principles of the human resource policies of Education Queensland were based on a commitment to permanent employment, a system's perspective, viewing teaching as a profession and a homogeneous group of permanent beginning teachers. Contrasting with this, the beginning teacher on temporary engagement tended to operate from the position of temporary employment and a perspective that was individually based. Their priorities therefore included the 'occupational' aspects of being a temporary teacher striving to become permanent. Thus there existed a tension or contradiction between the general principles of human resource policies within Education Queensland and the employment experiences of beginning teachers on temporary engagement. The study proposed three actions for resolution to address the aforementioned tensions. The actions included: (a) the effective provision and targeted communication of information; (b) support, induction and professional development; and (c) a coordinated approach between Education Queensland, Queensland Teachers' Union, the Universities and the beginning teacher. These actions are fm1her refined to include: (a) an induction kit to suppm1 the individual through the pre-employment to permanent employee phases, (b) an extrapolation of the roles and responsibilities of Education Queensland personnel charged with supporting the beginning temporary teacher, and (c) a series of recommendations to effect a coordinated approach amongst the key stakeholders. The theoretical and conceptual frameworks have provided a means of addressing the identified needs of the beginning teacher on temporary engagement. As such, this study has contributed to the research literature on teacher employment and professionalism and aims to provide a beginning temporary teacher with managed professional and occupational support.

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Creative processes, for instance, the development of visual effects or computer games, increasingly become part of the agenda of information systems researchers and practitioners. Such processes get their managerial challenges from the fact that they comprise both well-structured, transactional parts and creative parts. The latter can often not be precisely specified in terms of control flow, required resources, and outcome. The processes’ high uncertainty sets boundaries for the application of traditional business process management concepts, such as process automation, process modeling, process performance measurement, and risk management. Organizations must thus exercise caution when it comes to managing creative processes and supporting these with information technology. This, in turn, requires a profound understanding of the concept of creativity in business processes. In response to this, the present paper introduces a framework for conceptualizing creativity within business processes. The conceptual framework describes three types of uncertainty and constraints as well as the interrelationships among these. The study is grounded in the findings from three case studies that were conducted in the film and visual effects industry. Moreover, we provide initial evidence for the framework’s validity beyond this narrow focus. The framework is intended to serve as a sensitizing device that can guide further information systems research on creativity-related phenomena.

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In Powers of Horror, Julia Kristeva writes about lost children. These are what she calls “dejects,” who, in the psychodrama of subject formation, fail to fully absent the body of the mother, to accept the Law of the Father and the Symbolic, and subsequently to establish “clear boundaries which constitute the object-world for normal subjects.” Dejects are “strays” looking for a place to belong, a place that is bound up with the Imaginary mother of the pre-Oedipal period. Kristeva’s sketch of the deject as one who is unable to negotiate a proper path to the Symbolicis useful to a reading of Hartnett’s Of A Boy (2002),a novel that also deals with lost children and imaginary mothers. However, in its portrayal of children who are doomed to never achieve adulthood, Of A Boy enacts a haunting retrieval of the pre-Oedipal from the dark side of phallocentric representation, privileging the semiotic (Kristeva’s concept) and the maternal as necessary disruptive checks on a patriarchal Symbolic Order.

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This paper argues a model of adaptive design for sustainable architecture within a framework of entropy evolution. The spectrum of sustainable architecture consists of efficient use of energy and material resource in the life-cycle of buildings, active involvement of the occupants into micro-climate control within the building, and the natural environment as the physical context. The interactions amongst all the parameters compose a complex system of sustainable architecture design, of which the conventional linear and fragmented design technologies are insufficient to indicate holistic and ongoing environmental performance. The latest interpretation of the Second Law of Thermodynamics states a microscopic formulation of an entropy evolution of complex open systems. It provides a design framework for an adaptive system evolves for the optimization in open systems, this adaptive system evolves for the optimization of building environmental performance. The paper concludes that adaptive modelling in entropy evolution is a design alternative for sustainable architecture.

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Intelligible and accurate risk-based decision-making requires a complex balance of information from different sources, appropriate statistical analysis of this information and consequent intelligent inference and decisions made on the basis of these analyses. Importantly, this requires an explicit acknowledgement of uncertainty in the inputs and outputs of the statistical model. The aim of this paper is to progress a discussion of these issues in the context of several motivating problems related to the wider scope of agricultural production. These problems include biosecurity surveillance design, pest incursion, environmental monitoring and import risk assessment. The information to be integrated includes observational and experimental data, remotely sensed data and expert information. We describe our efforts in addressing these problems using Bayesian models and Bayesian networks. These approaches provide a coherent and transparent framework for modelling complex systems, combining the different information sources, and allowing for uncertainty in inputs and outputs. While the theory underlying Bayesian modelling has a long and well established history, its application is only now becoming more possible for complex problems, due to increased availability of methodological and computational tools. Of course, there are still hurdles and constraints, which we also address through sharing our endeavours and experiences.