Climate change and water in the UK: past changes and future prospects

Climate change is expected to modify rainfall, temperature and catchment hydrological responses across the world, and adapting to these water-related changes is a pressing challenge. This paper reviews the impact of anthropogenic climate change on water in the UK and looks at projections of future change. The natural variability of the UK climate makes change hard to detect; only historical increases in air temperature can be attributed to anthropogenic climate forcing, but over the last 50 years more winter rainfall has been falling in intense events. Future changes in rainfall and evapotranspiration could lead to changed flow regimes and impacts on water quality, aquatic ecosystems and water availability. Summer flows may decrease on average, but floods may become larger and more frequent. River and lake water quality may decline as a result of higher water temperatures, lower river flows and increased algal blooms in summer, and because of higher flows in the winter. In communicating this important work, researchers should pay particular attention to explaining confidence and uncertainty clearly. Much of the relevant research is either global or highly localized: decision-makers would benefit from more studies that address water and climate change at a spatial and temporal scale appropriate for the decisions they make

The impact of over 80 years of land cover changes on bee and wasp pollinator communities in England

Change in land cover is thought to be one of the key drivers of pollinator declines, and yet there is a dearth of studies exploring the relationships between historical changes in land cover and shifts in pollinator communities. Here, we explore, for the first time, land cover changes in England over more than 80 years, and relate them to concurrent shifts in bee and wasp species richness and community composition. Using historical data from 14 sites across four counties, we quantify the key land cover changes within and around these sites and estimate the changes in richness and composition of pollinators. Land cover changes within sites, as well as changes within a 1 km radius outside the sites, have significant effects on richness and composition of bee and wasp species, with changes in edge habitats between major land classes also having a key influence. Our results highlight not just the land cover changes that may be detrimental to pollinator communities, but also provide an insight into how increases in habitat diversity may benefit species diversity, and could thus help inform policy and practice for future land management.

Population ecology of the Asian house rat (Rattus tanezumi) in complex lowland agroecosystems in the Philippines

Context. Rattus tanezumi (the Asian house rat) is the principal rodent pest of rice and coconut crops in the Philippines. Little is known about the population and breeding ecology of R. tanezumi in complex agroecosystems; thus, current methods of rodent control may be inappropriate or poorly implemented. Aims. To investigate the habitat use, population dynamics and breeding biology of R. tanezumi in complex lowland agroecosystems of the Sierra Madre Biodiversity Corridor, Luzon, and to develop ecologically based rodent management (EBRM) strategies that will target specific habitats at specific times to improve cost-efficiency and minimise non-target risks. Methods. An 18-month trapping study was conducted in rice monoculture, rice adjacent to coconut, coconut groves, coconut-based agroforest and forest habitats. Trapped animals were measured, marked and assessed for breeding condition. Key results. Five species of rodent were captured across all habitats with R. tanezumi the major pest species in both the rice and coconut crops. The stage of the rice crop was a major factor influencing the habitat use and breeding biology of R. tanezumi. In rice fields, R. tanezumi abundance was highest during the tillering to ripening stages of the rice crop and lowest during the seedling stage, whereas in coconut groves abundance was highest from the seedling to tillering stage of nearby rice crops. Peaks in breeding activity occurred from the booting stage of the rice crop until just after harvest, but >10% of females were in breeding condition at each month of the year. Conclusions. In contrast with the practices applied by rice farmers in the study region, the most effective time for lethal management based on the breeding ecology of R. tanezumi is likely to be during the early stages of the rice crop, before the booting stage. Farmers generally apply control actions as individuals. We recommend coordinated community action. Continuous breeding throughout the year may necessitate two community campaigns per rice cropping season. To limit population growth, the most effective time to reduce nesting habitat is from the booting stage until harvest. Implications. By adopting EBRM strategies, we expect a reduction in costs associated with rodent control, as well as improved yield and reduced risk to non-target species.

Evidence of resilience to past climate change in Southwest Asia: early farming communities and the 9.2 and 8.2 ka events

Climate change is often cited as a major factor in social change. The so-called 8.2 ka event was one of the most pronounced and abrupt Holocene cold and arid events. The 9.2 ka event was similar, albeit of a smaller magnitude. Both events affected the Northern Hemisphere climate and caused cooling and aridification in Southwest Asia. Yet, the impacts of the 8.2 and 9.2 ka events on early farming communities in this region are not well understood. Current hypotheses for an effect of the 8.2 ka event vary from large-scale site abandonment and migration (including the Neolithisation of Europe) to continuation of occupation and local adaptation, while impacts of the 9.2 ka have not previously been systematically studied. In this paper, we present a thorough assessment of available, quality-checked radiocarbon (14C) dates for sites from Southwest Asia covering the time interval between 9500 and 7500 cal BP, which we interpret in combination with archaeological evidence. In this way, the synchronicity between changes observed in the archaeological record and the rapid climate events is tested. It is shown that there is no evidence for a simultaneous and widespread collapse, large-scale site abandonment, or migration at the time of the events. However, there are indications for local adaptation. We conclude that early farming communities were resilient to the abrupt, severe climate changes at 9250 and 8200 cal BP.

Can a native rodent species limit the invasive potential of a non-native rodent species in tropical agroforest habitats?

BACKGROUND Little is known about native and non-native rodent species interactions in complex tropical agro-ecosystems. We hypothesised that the native non-pest rodent Rattus everetti may be competitively dominant over the invasive pest rodent Rattus tanezumi within agroforests. We tested this experimentally by using pulse removal for three consecutive months to reduce populations of R. everetti in agroforest habitat and assessed over 6-months the response of R. tanezumi and other rodent species. RESULTS Following removal, R. everetti individuals rapidly immigrated into removal sites. At the end of the study period, R. tanezumi were larger and there was a significant shift in their microhabitat use with respect to the use of ground vegetation cover following the perturbation of R. everetti. Irrespective of treatment, R. tanezumi selected microhabitat with less tree canopy cover, indicative of severely disturbed habitat, whereas, R. everetti selected microhabitat with a dense canopy. CONCLUSION Our results suggest that sustained habitat disturbance in agroforests favours R. tanezumi, whilst the regeneration of agroforests towards a more natural state would favour native species and may reduce pest pressure in adjacent crops. In addition, the rapid recolonisation of R. everetti suggests this species would be able to recover from non-target impacts of short-term rodent pest control.

Structure-based energetics of protein interfaces guides foot-and-mouth disease virus vaccine design

Virus capsids are primed for disassembly, yet capsid integrity is key to generating a protective immune response. Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) capsids comprise identical pentameric protein subunits held together by tenuous noncovalent interactions and are often unstable. Chemically inactivated or recombinant empty capsids, which could form the basis of future vaccines, are even less stable than live virus. Here we devised a computational method to assess the relative stability of protein-protein interfaces and used it to design improved candidate vaccines for two poorly stable, but globally important, serotypes of FMDV: O and SAT2. We used a restrained molecular dynamics strategy to rank mutations predicted to strengthen the pentamer interfaces and applied the results to produce stabilized capsids. Structural analyses and stability assays confirmed the predictions, and vaccinated animals generated improved neutralizing-antibody responses to stabilized particles compared to parental viruses and wild-type capsids.

The proteome of the infectious bronchitis virus Beau-R Virion

Infectious bronchitis is a highly contagious respiratory disease of poultry caused by the coronavirus IBV. It was thought that coronavirus virions were composed of three major viral structural proteins, until investigations of other coronaviruses showed that coronavirus virions also include viral non-structural and group specific proteins as well as host cell proteins. To study the proteome of IBV virions, virus was grown in embryonated chicken eggs and purified by sucrose gradient ultracentrifugation and analysed by mass spectrometry proteomic. Analysis of three preparations of purified IBV yielded the three expected structural proteins plus thirty-five additional virion-associated host proteins. Virion-associated host proteins had a diverse range of functional attributions, being involved in cytoskeleton formation, RNA binding and protein folding pathways. Some of these proteins were unique to this study, whilst others were found to be orthologous to proteins identified in SARS-CoV virions, and also virions from a number of other RNA and DNA viruses. Together these results demonstrate that coronaviruses have the capacity to incorporate a substantial variety of host protein, which may have implications for the disease process.

Negotiating the British landscape

According to many accounts, a key paradigm for understanding art in Post WWII Britain is one of Englishness versus internationalism or abstraction versus realism . These terms have a rich inflection of meanings that have been subject to interrogation over the last few decades. Anwar Shemza came to Britain and practiced his art at a time when these competing claims were at their height. In a postcolonial reading entitled “Black Diaspora Artists in Britain: Three ‘Moments’ in Post-War Britain” Stuart Hall recently used David Scott’s framework of a ‘problem space’, that is discursively defined through questions, tensions and conjunctures, that couched the entry of what he describes as first waive British commonwealth artists into critical visibility in Britain. This can be characterized in part by the reviews of WG Archer and GM Butcher, both supporters of Shemza and prominent critics of the period. Hall includes Shemza in this framework that defines the work and his aspirations as constituted through the tensions of what was perceived to be anti-colonialist aims of modernism through universalism and the ‘nativist’ current in anti-colonial nationalism . This text will focus particularly on the problematic of Landscape as a ‘problem space’ of vernacular and modernism, over here and over there. The aim is not to define Shemza within the tradition of English landscape nor to exclude him but to position him within a discursive field of landscape and modernism in mid twentieth Century art.

G6f-like is an ITAM-containing collagen receptor in thrombocytes

Collagen activates mammalian platelets through a complex of the immunoglobulin (Ig) receptor GPVI and the Fc receptor γ-chain, which has an immunoreceptor tyrosine-based activation motif (ITAM). Cross-linking of GPVI mediates activation through the sequential activation of Src and Syk family kinases and activation of PLCγ2. Nucleated thrombocytes in fish are activated by collagen but lack an ortholog of GPVI. In this study we show that collagen activates trout thrombocytes in whole blood and under flow conditions through a Src kinase driven pathway. We identify the Ig receptor G6f-like as a collagen receptor and demonstrate in a cell line assay that it signals through its cytoplasmic ITAM. Using a morpholino for in vivo knock-down of G6f-like levels in zebrafish, we observed a marked delay or absence of occlusion of the venous and arterial systems in response to laser injury. Thus, G6f-like is a physiologically relevant collagen receptor in fish thrombocytes which signals through the same ITAM-based signalling pathway as mammalian GPVI, providing a novel example of convergent evolution.

The environmental setting of Epipalaeolithic aggregation site Kharaneh IV

The archaeological site of Kharaneh IV in Jordan's Azraq Basin, and its relatively near neighbour Jilat 6 show evidence of sustained occupation of substantial size through the Early to Middle Epipalaeolithic (c. 24,000 - 15,000 cal BP). Here we review the geomorphological evidence for the environmental setting in which Kharaneh IV was established. The on-site stratigraphy is clearly differentiated from surrounding sediments, marked visually as well as by higher magnetic susceptibility values. Dating and analysis of off-site sediments show that a significant wetland existed at the site prior to and during early site occupation (~ 23,000 - 19,000 BP). This may explain why such a substantial site existed at this location. This wetland dating to the Last Glacial Maximum also provides important information on the palaeoenvironments and potential palaeoclimatic scenarios for today's eastern Jordanian desert, from where such evidence is scarce.

Understanding 2H/1H systematics of leaf wax n-alkanes in coastal plants at Stiffkey saltmarsh, Norfolk, UK

Interpretation of sedimentary n-alkyl lipid d2H data is complicated by a limited understanding of factors controlling interspecies variation in biomarker 2H/1H composition. To distinguish between the effects of interrelated environmental, physical and biochemical controls on the hydrogen isotope composition of n-alkyl lipids, we conducted linked d2H analyses of soil water, xylem water, leaf water and n-alkanes from a range of C3 and C4 plants growing at a UK saltmarsh (i) across multiple sampling sites, (ii) throughout the 2012 growing season, and (iii) at different times of the day. Soil waters varied isotopically by up to 35& depending on marsh sub-environment, and exhibited site-specific seasonal shifts in d2H up to a maximum of 31 per mil. Maximum interspecies variation in xylem water was 38 per mil, while leaf waters differed seasonally by a maximum of 29 per mil. Leaf wax n-alkane 2H/1H, however, consistently varied by over 100 per mil throughout the 2012 growing season, resulting in an interspecies range in the ewax/leaf water values of -79 per mil to –227 per mil. From the discrepancy in the magnitude of these isotopic differences, we conclude that mechanisms driving variation in the 2H/1H composition of leaf water, including (i) spatial changes in soil water 2H/1H, (ii) temporal changes in soil water 2H/1H, (iii) differences in xylem water 2H/1H, and (iv) differences in leaf water evaporative 2H-enrichment due to varied plant life forms, cannot explain the range of n-alkane d2H values we observed. Results from this study suggests that accurate reconstructions of palaeoclimate regimes from sedimentary n-alkane d2H require further research to constrain those biological mechanisms influencing species-specific differences in 2H/1H fractionation during lipid biosynthesis, in particular where plants have developed biochemical adaptations to water-stressed conditions. Understanding how these mechanisms interact with environmental conditions will be crucial to ensure accurate interpretation of hydrogen isotope signals from the geological record.

Are Good or Bad Borrowers Discouraged From Applying for Loans?

This paper takes the concept of a discouraged borrower originally formulated by Kon and Storey [Kon, Y., Storey, D.J., 2003. A theory of discouraged borrowers. Small Business Economics 21, 37–49] and examines whether discouragement is an efficient self-rationing mechanism. Using US data it finds riskier borrowers have higher probabilities of discouragement, which increase with longer financial relationships, suggesting discouragement is an efficient self-rationing mechanism. It also finds low risk borrowers are less likely to be discouraged in concentrated markets than in competitive markets and that, in concentrated markets, high risk borrowers are more likely to be discouraged the longer their financial relationships. We conclude discouragement is more efficient in concentrated, than in competitive, markets.

The Role of Collateral in Entrepreneurial Finance

Previous research has suggested collateral has the role of sorting entrepreneurs either by observed risk or by private information. In order to test these roles, this paper develops a model which incorporates a signalling process (sorting by observed risk) into the design of an incentivecompatible menu of loan contracts which works as a self-selection mechanism (sorting by private information). It then tests this Sorting by Signalling and Self-Selection Model, using the 1998 US Survey of Small Business Finances. It reports for the first time that: high type entrepreneurs are more likely to pledge collateral and pay a lower interest rate; and entrepreneurs who transfer good signals enjoy better contracts than those transferring bad signals. These findings suggest that the Sorting by Signalling and Self-Selection Model sheds more light on entrepreneurial debt finance than either the sorting-by-observed-risk or the sorting-by-private information paradigms on their own.

The concentration of creditors: evidence from small businesses

This article examines the determinants of concentration of creditors. The empirical evidence drawn from this article supports the proposition of Bolton and Scharfstein (1996) that for negotiation reasons, high-quality borrowers tend to borrow from multiple sources and is contrary to the theoretical prediction of Bris and Welch (2005). This finding implies the existence of hold-up problems in financing small businesses where information conveyance is difficult between lenders. It is further supported by the evidence that dispersed bank relationships are associated with relationships of a longer history and a closer physical distance to lenders.