Countercyclical regulation in Solvency II: merits and flaws. CEPS Commentary, 25 June 2012

October 2011 saw the latest draft of Solvency II, the European Union’s code for regulation of the insurance industry. This commentary, a collective effort by a group of academics specializing in financial, banking and insurance institutions, argues that the latest proposals need to be drafted again, urgently.

Contrasting Seasonal Survivorship of Two Migratory Songbirds Wintering in Threatened Mangrove Forests

Long-distance migrants wintering in tropical regions face a number of critical conservation threats throughout their lives, but seasonal estimates of key demographic parameters such as winter survival are rare. Using mist-netting-based mark-recapture data collected in coastal Costa Rica over a six-year period, we examined variation in within- and between-winter survivorship of the Prothonotary Warbler (Protonotaria citrea; 753 young and 376 adults banded), a declining neotropical habitat specialist that depends on threatened mangrove forests during the nonbreeding season. We derived parallel seasonal survivorship estimates for the Northern Waterthrush (Seiurus noveboracensis; 564 young and 93 adults banded), a cohabitant mangrove specialist that has not shown the same population decline in North America, to assess whether contrasting survivorship might contribute to the observed differences in the species’ population trajectories. Although average annual survival probability was relatively similar between the two species for both young and adult birds, monthly estimates indicated that relative to Northern Waterthrush, Prothonotary Warblers exhibited: greater interannual variation in survivorship, especially within winters; greater variation in survivorship among the three study sites; lower average between-winter survivorship, particularly among females, and; a sharp decline in between-winter survivorship from 2003 to 2009 for both age groups and both sexes. Rather than identifying one seasonal vital rate as a causal factor of Prothonotary Warbler population declines, our species comparison suggests that the combination of variable within-winter survival with decreasing between-winter survival demands a multi-seasonal approach to the conservation of this and other tropical-wintering migrants.

Declines of Aerial Insectivores in North America Follow a Geographic Gradient

North American birds that feed on aerial insects are experiencing widespread population declines. An analysis of the North American Breeding Bird Survey trend estimates for 1966 to 2006 suggests that declines in this guild are significantly stronger than in passerines in general. The pattern of decline also shows a striking geographical gradient, with aerial insectivore declines becoming more prevalent towards the northeast of North America. Declines are also more acute in species that migrate long distances compared to those that migrate short distances. The declines become manifest, almost without exception, in the mid 1980s. The taxonomic breadth of these downward trends suggests that declines in aerial insectivore populations are linked to changes in populations of flying insects, and these changes might be indicative of underlying ecosystem changes.

Data management for the ocean sciences - perspectives for the next decade

There is remarkable agreement in expectations today for vastly improved ocean data management a decade from now -- capabilities that will help to bring significant benefits to ocean research and to society. Advancing data management to such a degree, however, will require cultural and policy changes that are slow to effect. The technological foundations upon which data management systems are built are certain to continue advancing rapidly in parallel. These considerations argue for adopting attitudes of pragmatism and realism when planning data management strategies. In this paper we adopt those attitudes as we outline opportunities for progress in ocean data management. We begin with a synopsis of expectations for integrated ocean data management a decade from now. We discuss factors that should be considered by those evaluating candidate “standards”. We highlight challenges and opportunities in a number of technical areas, including “Web 2.0” applications, data modeling, data discovery and metadata, real-time operational data, archival of data, biological data management and satellite data management. We discuss the importance of investments in the development of software toolkits to accelerate progress. We conclude the paper by recommending a few specific, short term targets for implementation, that we believe to be both significant and achievable, and calling for action by community leadership to effect these advancements.

Evaluating the potential for statistical decadal predictions of sea surface temperatures with a perfect model approach

We explore the potential for making statistical decadal predictions of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in a perfect model analysis, with a focus on the Atlantic basin. Various statistical methods (Lagged correlations, Linear Inverse Modelling and Constructed Analogue) are found to have significant skill in predicting the internal variability of Atlantic SSTs for up to a decade ahead in control integrations of two different global climate models (GCMs), namely HadCM3 and HadGEM1. Statistical methods which consider non-local information tend to perform best, but which is the most successful statistical method depends on the region considered, GCM data used and prediction lead time. However, the Constructed Analogue method tends to have the highest skill at longer lead times. Importantly, the regions of greatest prediction skill can be very different to regions identified as potentially predictable from variance explained arguments. This finding suggests that significant local decadal variability is not necessarily a prerequisite for skillful decadal predictions, and that the statistical methods are capturing some of the dynamics of low-frequency SST evolution. In particular, using data from HadGEM1, significant skill at lead times of 6–10 years is found in the tropical North Atlantic, a region with relatively little decadal variability compared to interannual variability. This skill appears to come from reconstructing the SSTs in the far north Atlantic, suggesting that the more northern latitudes are optimal for SST observations to improve predictions. We additionally explore whether adding sub-surface temperature data improves these decadal statistical predictions, and find that, again, it depends on the region, prediction lead time and GCM data used. Overall, we argue that the estimated prediction skill motivates the further development of statistical decadal predictions of SSTs as a benchmark for current and future GCM-based decadal climate predictions.

Estudo da influência dos alelos do HLA classe I e II e do polimorfismo dos genes de citocinas na infecção pelo HTLV-1

INTRODUÇÃO: O vírus linfotrópico para células T humanas (HTLV-1) é o principal agente causador da Paraparesia Espástica Tropical / Mielopatia associada ao HTLV-1 (PET/MAH) e da Leucemia da célula T do Adulto (LTA). A maioria dos indivíduos infectados permanece assintomática, somente 2 a 5% irão desenvolver uma das duas doenças. Fatores da interação HTLV-1/ hospedeiro estão envolvidos no risco de desenvolver doença. A lesão neurológica na PET/MAH parece ser consequência de uma reação inflamatória, desencadeada pelo reconhecimento de células infectadas por linfócitos T citotóxicos, com consequente liberação de citocinas e lesão medular. OBJETIVO: Identificar marcadores genéticos, que possam ajudar no prognóstico e tratamento dos pacientes portadores do HTLV-1. MÉTODOS: Nas amostras de 117 portadores do HTLV-1 assintomáticos e 171 pacientes com acometimento neurológico em acompanhamento na cidade do Rio de Janeiro, foram realizadas as tipificações dos genes do HLA Classe I e II, dos polimorfismos dos genes das citocinas -308TNF-\03B1,-174IL-6, +874IFN-\03B3, códon 10 e 25TGF-\03B21 e -1082 - 819-592IL-10, e a quantificação da carga proviral. Os dados foram organizados em um banco de dados no programa SPSS. As frequências alélicas e genotípicas foram obtidas por contagem direta. O equilíbrio de Hardy-Weinberg foi avaliado para os polimorfismos das citocinas no sitio http://bioinfo.iconcologia.net/ubbweb/SNPStats_web, em relação ao HLA foram utilizadas as ferramentas disponíveis no sítio \201CLos Alamos HIV database tools\201D. As comparações entre os grupos foram realizadas através de tabelas de contingência 2x2 (quiquadrado, exato de Fisher e odds ratios), valores de p\22640,05 foram considerados significantes RESULTADOS E CONCLUSÕES: O alelo A*02 não influencia a condição clínica nem os níveis da carga proviral. Os alelos A*29 e B*44 foram mais frequentes entre os indivíduos assintomáticos e a sua presença influenciou os níveis da carga proviral sugerindo proteção ao desenvolvimento de doença neurológica. O alelo A*68 foi mais frequente entre os pacientes com doença neurológica, porém sua presença não influenciou nos níveis da carga proviral. O alelo C*04 foi mais frequente entre os portadores assintomáticos e não influenciou os níveis de carga proviral, já o alelo DRB1*03 predominou entre os pacientes com doença neurológica e a sua presença entre os indivíduos assintomáticos acarretou níveis mais elevados de carga proviral, sugerindo ser um possível fator de risco para o desenvolvimento de doença neurológica. Na análise do polimorfismo genético das citocinas, o polimorfismo de IL-10, com perfil fenotípico de baixo produtor da citocina foi mais frequente no grupo dos assintomáticos, enquanto que o fenótipo de produtor intermediário predominou entre os sintomáticos. O perfil fenotípico da população estudada foi caracterizado como: baixo produtor da citocina -308TNF-\03B1, intermediário a alto produtor para códon 10 e códon 25 TGF-\03B2, baixo a intermediário produtor para -1082,-819,- 592 IL-10, alto produtor para -174 IL-6 e baixo a intermediário produtor para +874IFN-\03B3

LXR as a novel antithrombotic target

Liver X receptors (LXRs) are transcription factors involved in the regulation of cholesterol homeostasis. LXR ligands have athero-protective properties independent of their effects on cholesterol metabolism. Platelets are involved in the initiation of atherosclerosis and despite being anucleate express nuclear receptors. We hypothesized that the athero-protective effects of LXR ligands could be in part mediated through platelets and therefore explored the potential role of LXR in platelets. Our results show that LXR-β is present in human platelets and the LXR ligands, GW3965 and T0901317, modulated nongenomically platelet aggregation stimulated by a range of agonists. GW3965 caused LXR to associate with signaling components proximal to the collagen receptor, GPVI, suggesting a potential mechanism of LXR action in platelets that leads to diminished platelet responses. Activation of platelets at sites of atherosclerotic lesions results in thrombosis preceding myocardial infarction and stroke. Using an in vivo model of thrombosis in mice, we show that GW3965 has antithrombotic effects, reducing the size and the stability of thrombi. The athero-protective effects of GW3965, together with its novel antiplatelet/thrombotic effects, indicate LXR as a potential target for prevention of athero-thrombotic disease.

Evolutionary analysis of novel serine proteases in the venom gland transcriptome of Bitis gabonica rhinoceros

Background: Serine proteases are major components of viper venom and target various stages of the blood coagulation system in victims and prey. A better understanding of the diversity of serine proteases and other enzymes present in snake venom will help to understand how the complexity of snake venom has evolved and will aid the development of novel therapeutics for treating snake bites. Methodology and Principal Findings: Four serine protease-encoding genes from the venom gland transcriptome of Bitis gabonica rhinoceros were amplified and sequenced. Mass spectrometry suggests the four enzymes corresponding to these genes are present in the venom of B. g. rhinoceros. Two of the enzymes, rhinocerases 2 and 3 have substitutions to two of the serine protease catalytic triad residues and are thus unlikely to be catalytically active, though they may have evolved other toxic functions. The other two enzymes, rhinocerases 4 and 5, have classical serine protease catalytic triad residues and thus are likely to be catalytically active, however they have glycine rather than the more typical aspartic acid at the base of the primary specificity pocket (position 189). Based on a detailed analysis of these sequences we suggest that alternative splicing together with individual amino acid mutations may have been involved in their evolution. Changes within amino acid segments which were previously proposed to undergo accelerated change in venom serine proteases have also been observed. Conclusions and Significance: Our study provides further insight into the diversity of serine protease isoforms present within snake venom and discusses their possible functions and how they may have evolved. These multiple serine protease isoforms with different substrate specificities may enhance the envenomation effects and help the snake to adapt to new habitats and diets. Our findings have potential for helping the future development of improved therapeutics for snake bites.