987 resultados para Jet lag
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Recent progress in neuroscience has yielded major findings regarding brain maturation during adolescence. Unlike the body, which reaches adult size and morphology during this period, the adolescent brain is still maturing. The prefrontal cortex appears to be an important locus of maturational change subserving executive functions that may regulate emotional and motivational issues. The recent expansion of the adolescent period has increased the lag between the onset of emotional and motivational changes activated by puberty and the completion of cognitive development-the maturation of self-regulatory capacities and skills that are continuing to develop long after puberty has occurred. This "disconnect" predicts risk for a broad set of behavioral and emotional problems. Adolescence is a critical period for high-level cognitive functions such as socialization that rely on maturation of the prefrontal cortex. Intervention during the period of adolescent brain development provides opportunities and requires an interdisciplinary approach.
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The primary goal of the project was to document the demographic profile of OWI offenders in Iowa. The study is based on both aggregate and case-level data. The case level data produced a final sample of 118,675 OWI convictions. That occurred from 2000 through 2009. The great majority of convicted offenders were White males. From 2000 through 2009 the percentage of convictions received by women increased by 34%. Defendants’ average age of was 30 years old, and the age cohorts of 15 to 24, 25 to 34, and 34 to 45 were overrepresented among convicted offenders. Whites were underrepresented among OWI defendants. African Americans, Hispanics and Native Americans were overrepresented. From 2000 through 2009, the percentage of aggravated misdemeanor felony OWI convictions received by Hispanics and African Americans increased significantly. The percentage of OWI convictions received by women and African Americans increased significantly after implementation of the .08 BAC law. We did not find convincing evidence of a direct relationship between enforcement trends and the alcohol related traffic fatalities (ARTFs). However, the ten year Iowa conviction trends did provide evidence of a conviction lag effect on Iowa’s ARTFs. The research findings established the basis for a phase two project that would assess the efficacy of OWI sentencing practices in Iowa.
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Con motivo de la síntesis de Anthyllis para Flora iberica ha sido necesario revisar la nomenclatura y la taxonomía del agregado de Anthyllis henoniana, en el que se han incluido las Anthyllis sufruticosas inermes con glomérulos pauciflorus (4-7 flores), hojas subdísticas y folíolos pulvinulados. En este grupo se han reunido dos especies (A. henoniana Coss. y A. subsimplex Pomel) descritas de las estepas desérticas argelinas, junto a otra (A. sericea Lag.) descrita de los matorrales pedregosocalcáreos de Albacete. Los tres nombres han recibido diversos tratamientos taxonómicos, desde ser considerados como coespecíficos (JAFRI & ELGADI, Fl. Lybia 86:114.1980), hasta como tres entidades específicas independientes [BATTANDIER in BATTANDIER & TRABUT, Fl. Algérie (Dicot.) 1:250. 1889), o como dos especies distintas (GREUTER and al., Med-Checklist4:6-7.1989].
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This paper analyses the differential impact of human capital, in terms of different levels of schooling, on regional productivity and convergence. The potential existence of geographical spillovers of human capital is also considered by applying spatial panel data techniques. The empirical analysis of Spanish provinces between 1980 and 2007 confirms the positive impact of human capital on regional productivity and convergence, but reveals no evidence of any positive geographical spillovers of human capital. In fact, in some specifications the spatial lag presented by tertiary studies has a negative effect on the variables under consideration.
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Inhibitory receptors are involvedin the induction of T cell dysfunctionand exhaustion in chronic viral infectionsand in tumors. In the presentstudy, we analyzed the expressionpattern of 3 different inhibitory receptors(PD-1, Lag-3, 2B4) in a murine Bcell lymphoma model. Furthermore,we functionally characterized CD8+T cells expressing inhibitory receptorsfor cytokine production and proliferation.Expansion and secretion ofpro-inflammatory cytokines of CD8+T cells from lymphoma-bearing E-myc mice were significantly reducedcompared to the healthy controls.Similarly, expansion and effectorfunction of CD8+ TCR transgenic(p14) Tcells specific for the gp-33 antigenof lymphocytic choriomeningitisvirus (LCMV) was reduced inlymphoma-bearing E-myc mice afteractivation with LCMV. The functionalimpairment of CTL in the presenceof lymphoma was reversible aftertransfer to naive C57BL/6 recipients.In vitro co-culture experimentsrevealed that the proliferation ofanti-CD3-activated CD8+ T cellsfrom WT mice was significantly inhibitedby CD19+ lymphoma cellsfrom E-myc mice, whereas no inhibitionwas observed after co-culturewith normal B cells. Supernatants ofin vitro cultured lymphoma B cellsand blood sera from lymphoma-bearingE-myc mice significantly reducedT cell proliferation in vitro, ascompared to supernatants from normalB cells cultures or sera of healthyanimals. These experiments indicatethat the lymphoma B cells inactivateCTL by a soluble factor. Expressionanalysis of different important immunologicalcytokines revealed that themacrophage migration inhibitory factor(MIF) is selectively overexpressedin malignant B cells. This finding wasconfirmed by analyzing MIF proteinin culture supernatants and in celllysates. Therefore, lymphoma B cellsmay reduce T cell function and suppresslymphoma surveillance by secretionof MIF.
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(from the journal abstract) Scientific interest for the concept of alliance has been maintained and stimulated by repeated findings that a strong alliance is associated with facilitative treatment process and favourable treatment outcome. However, because the alliance is not in itself a therapeutic technique, these findings were unsuccessful in bringing about significant improvements in clinical practice. An essential issue in modern psychotherapeutic research concerns the relation between common factors which are known to explain great variance in empirical results and the specific therapeutic techniques which are the primary basis of clinical training and practice. This pilot study explored sequences in therapist interventions over four sessions of brief psychodynamic investigation. It aims at determining if patterns of interventions can be found during brief psychodynamic investigation and if these patterns can be associated with differences in the therapeutic alliance. Therapist interventions where coded using the Psychodynamic Intervention Rating Scale (PIRS) which enables the classification of each therapist utterance into one of 9 categories of interpretive interventions (defence interpretation, transference interpretation), supportive interventions (question, clarification, association, reflection, supportive strategy) or interventions about the therapeutic frame (work-enhancing statement, contractual arrangement). Data analysis was done using lag sequential analysis, a statistical procedure which identifies contingent relationships in time among a large number of behaviours. The sample includes N = 20 therapist-patient dyads assigned to three groups with: (1) a high and stable alliance profile, (2) a low and stable alliance profile and (3) an improving alliance profile. Results suggest that therapists most often have one single intention when interacting with patients. Large sequences of questions, associations and clarifications were found, which indicate that if a therapist asks a question, clarifies or associates, there is a significant probability that he will continue doing so. A single theme sequence involving frame interventions was also observed. These sequences were found in all three alliance groups. One exception was found for mixed sequences of interpretations and supportive interventions. The simultaneous use of these two interventions was associated with a high or an improving alliance over the course of treatment, but not with a low and stable alliance where only single theme sequences of interpretations were found. In other words, in this last group, therapists were either supportive or interpretative, whereas with high or improving alliance, interpretations were always given along with supportive interventions. This finding provides evidence that examining therapist interpretation individually can only yield incomplete findings. How interpretations were given is important for alliance building. It also suggests that therapists should carefully dose their interpretations and be supportive when necessary in order to build a strong therapeutic alliance. And from a research point of view, to study technical interventions, we must look into dynamic variables such as dosage, the supportive quality of an intervention, and timing. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2005 APA, all rights reserved)
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Résumé: Valoriser le géopatrimoine par la médiation indirecte et la visualisation des objets géomorphologiques Le géopatrimoine regroupe des objets géologiques lato sensu auxquels certaines valeurs sont attribuées, en fonction de leur intérêt pour la science, de leur rareté, de leurs particularités culturelles ou écologiques, etc. Valoriser le géopatrimoine signifie avant tout faire partager cette approche aux non-spécialistes, en expliquant ce qui fait la valeur de ces objets. Cette valorisation peut s'effectuer, entre autres, sous la forme d'une activité touristique et contribuer ainsi au développement régional. Faire comprendre l'origine, la singularité et la valeur des formes du relief implique le recours à une communication éducative, désignée par le terme de médiation. Les implications de la dimension éducative du processus, comme la prise en compte des connaissances et attentes du public, la création d'un environnement favorable à l'apprentissage ou l'attractivité du contenu, sont souvent négligées. Du point de vue conceptuel, un modèle de la médiation indirecte (c'est-à-dire au moyen de supports médiatiques) a été proposé et appliqué au développement empirique de produits de médiation et à leur évaluation. Ce modèle ne garantit pas la réussite de la communication éducative, mais contribue à créer un cadre favorable au processus. De plus, plusieurs lignes directrices pour le choix du type de média et sa mise en forme ont été définies sur la base d'une compilation de résultats de la psychologie cognitive sur l'usage des médias pour l'apprentissage. Des méthodes qualitatives et quantitatives variées ont été mobilisées : enquêtes par questionnaire ex situ et in situ, auprès des visiteurs de géomorphosites de montagne, réalisation de médias interactifs testés ensuite auprès de divers publics (parcours enregistré, pré- et post-questionnaires) et entretiens collectifs. Les résultats obtenus éclairent divers aspects de la problématique. L'étude du public a montré, par exemple, que le géotourisme possède un réel public parmi les visiteurs des sites de montagnes : trois-quarts d'entre eux expriment de l'intérêt pour des explications sur la géologie et l'évolution du paysage. Cette thèse a exploré ces aspects liés au processus d'apprentissage en se focalisant sur les médias visuels, surtout interactifs. La plupart des médias visuels couramment utilisés en géomorphologie ont été considérés. Le développement de versions interactives de ces médias sous forme d'applications web a fourni un aperçu concret des possibilités des nouvelles technologies. Les utilisateurs apprécient en particulier a richesse du contenu, le haut degré d'interactivité et la variété de ces applications. De tels médias incitent à visiter le site naturel et semblent aussi répondre aux intérêts de publics variés. Abstract: Geoheritage promotion through non-personal interpretation and visualisation of geomorphological features Geoheritage concerns all geological features lato sensu to which some values are attributed, according to their scientific interest, their rarity, their cultural or ecological dimensions, etc. Geoheritage promotion implies sharing this point of view with non-specialists, explaining what gives value to those objects. Geotourism is one of the many ways to achieve geoheritage promotion, while contributing also to regional development. In order to make non-specialists understand the origin, the specificity and the value of landforms, educational communication is needed, that is called interpretation (French: médiation). This education dimension has several, and often neglected, implications, like taking into account public's knowledge and expectations, creating a favourable learning environment, attractive design, etc. From the conceptual point of view, a model for non-personal interpretation has been proposed and applied for the empirical development and for the assessment of interpretive products. This model does not guarantee success of educational communication, but help creating a favourable environment for this process. Moreover, some guidelines were defined from a compilation of several results of cognitive psychology on media use for learning. They guide the choice of the kind of media and its design. Several qualitative and quantitative methods were applied: survey questionnaires ex situ and in situ by mountain geomorphosites visitors, interactive medias developed and then tested by different kinds of users (with usertracking, pre- and post-survey questionnaires), group interviews. The results answered different aspects of the research questions. Visitor surveys revealed for example that geotourism could attract many visitors of mountain areas: three quarters of them say they are interested in getting explanations about geology and landscape (in particular its dynamic dimensions). This thesis examined those aspects with a focus on visual medias, both statics and interactive. Most of currently used medias in geomorphology were considered. Interactive versions of those medias were developed in web applications; they gave a concrete overview on the opportunities that new technologies offer. The content richness, the high interaction level and the diversity of the applications are the most liked aspects by the users. Such medias drive to visit the natural site and seem to correspond to the interests of various kinds of publics. Zusammenfassung: Aufwertung des erdwissenschaftlichen Erbes durch mediale Vermittlung und Visualisierung von geomorphologischen Objekten Das erdwissenschaftliche Erbe besteht aus geologischen Gegebenheiten lato sensu, denen entsprechend ihrer Bedeutung für die Wissenschaft, ihrer Seltenheit, ihrer kulturellen oder ökologischen Besonderheiten usw. bestimmte Werte zugeordnet werden. Das erdwissenschaftliche Erbe aufzuwerten bedeutet in erster Linie, diesen Ansatz Nichtspezialisten näher zu bringen, indem ihnen erklärt wird, was den Wert dieser Gegebenheiten ausmacht. Dies kann etwa im Rahmen eines touristischen Angebots geschehen und so die regionale Entwicklung unterstützen. Um Entstehung, Besonderheit und Wert von Geländeformen verständlich zu machen, wird eine pädagogische Kommunikationsform verwendet, die als mediale Vermittlung (franz. médiation) bezeichnet wird. Die Bedeutung der pädagogischen Dimension des Vermittlungsprozesses wie etwa der Einbezug des Wissens und der Erwartungen des Publikums, die Gestaltung eines positiven Lernklimas oder die Attraktivität des Inhalts wird oft vernachlässigt. Auf konzeptueller Ebene wurde ein Modell der indirekten Interpretation erarbeitet (d. h. anhand von Medien), das bei der empirischen Entwicklung der Interpretationsprodukte und ihrer Evaluation Anwendung fand. Dieses Modell garantiert zwar nicht den Erfolg der pädagogischen Kommunikation. Es trägt aber dazu bei, einen für den Prozess günstigen Kontext zu schaffen. Des Weiteren wurden mehrere Richtlinien für die Wahl des Medientyps und dessen Ausgestaltung anhand einer Zusammenstellung von Resultaten der kognitiven Psychologie über den Gebrauch von Medien in Lernprozessen definiert. Es wurden verschiedene qualitative und quantitative Methoden eingesetzt: Befragung mittels Fragebogen der Besucher von geomorphologischen Geotopen im Gebirge - ex situ und in situ -, Erarbeitung von interaktiven Medien, die anschliessend anhand verschiedener Zielgruppen gestestet wurden (Aufnahme des Besuchparcours, Vor- und Nachfragebögen) sowie kollektive Interviews. Die Ergebnisse geben Aufschluss zu verschiedenen Aspekten der Fragestellung. Die Befragung des Publikums hat zum Beispiel deutlich gemacht, dass der Geotourismus unter den Besuchern von Berggebieten tatsächlich auf eine Nachfrage stösst: drei Viertel von ihnen zeigen ein Interesse für Erläuterungen zur Geologie und der Landschaftsentwicklung. Die vorliegende Doktorarbeit hat die genannten Aspekte der Lernprozesse untersucht, wobei der Fokus auf visuellen, insbesondere interaktiven Medien lag. Die meisten gängigen visuellen Medien der Geomorphologie wurden berücksichtigt. Die Entwicklung von interaktiven Versionen dieser Medien in Form von Web-Anwendungen hat die Möglichkeiten der neuen Technologien veranschaulicht. Die Benutzer schätzten insbesondere die Vielfalt des Inhalts, die hohe Interaktivität und die Diversität dieser Anwendungen. Solche Medien laden dazu ein, ein Naturgebiet zu besuchen und scheinen den Interessen der verschiedenen Publikumsgruppen entgegenzukommen.
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Résumé : Le cancer, qui est responsable d'un quart des décès en Suisse, exhibe un état cellulaire désordonné, qui lui-même, est la conséquence d'un dérèglement des gènes. Le gène le plus fréquemment altéré, dans les cas de cancers humains, est p53. Ce gène encode un facteur de transcription, impliqué dans la régulation de nombreux gènes impliqués dans le cycle cellulaire, l'apoptose ou la différenciation. Notre laboratoire a récemment identifié seize nouveaux gènes, dont l'expression est régulée par p53, parmi lesquels sept4, su jet de cette thèse. La protéine 5EPT4 appartient à la famille des septines, qui est impliquée dans la cytokinèse. Dans ce travail, nous avons confirmé la régulation de l'expression de sept4 par p53 dans des tissus de souris, et étonnamment, seul un des deux promoteurs du gène sept4 est contrôlé par p53. En outre, l'approche immunohistologique nous a permis de supposer une implication de la protéine SEPT4 dans le mécanisme de l'exocytose. Cette hypothèse a été confirmée par l'interaction de SEPT4 avec la protéine syntaxine 1A, et par son activité inhibitrice sur la sécrétion stimulée. En élargissant l'étude de la protéine SEPT4, nous avons découvert que celle-ci avait comme partenaire fonctionnel, la protéine Pinl, une enzyme qui catalyse l'isomérisation cis-trans du lien peptidique précédant une proline. bans ce contexte, nous avons démontré que l'interaction entre ces deux protéines reposait sur le domaine WW de Pinl, un type de domaine reconnaissant les motifs phosphoséryl-prolyl et phosphothréonyl-prolyl. Ce dernier résultat nous a conduit à examiner la phosphorylation de 5EPT4. Nous avons démontré que la partie N-terminale de SEPT4 était phosphorylée par la kinase Cdk5. La co¬expression de Cdk5 et de SEPT4 stimule la dégradation de SEPT4, indépendamment de la voie du protéasome. Ainsi, l'ensemble de nos observations fournissent l'évidence de l'engagement de la protéine SEPT4 dans la régulation de l'exocytose, et soutiennent le rôle de p53 dans le contrôle de l'exocytose, via SEPT4, ce qui constituerait un nouveau rôle fonctionnel pour ce gardien du génome. Summary: Cancer, which is responsible for a quarter of the deaths in Switzerland, exhibits a disordered cellular state, which itself, is the consequence of an altered state of genes. The most frequently altered gene in human cancer is p53. This gene encodes a transcription factor, implicated in the regulation of numerous genes involved in cell cycle, apoptosis or differentiation. Our laboratory has recently identified sixteen new genes whose expression is regulated by p53, amongst them septin 4, which is the subject of this thesis. The SEPT4 protein belongs to the septin family which is implicated in cytokinesis. In the present work, we have confirmed the regulation of sept4 expression by p53 in mouse tissues, and surprisingly, only one of the two sept4 promoters is regulated by p53. In addition, the immunohistologic approach enabled us to suppose a role of SEPT4 in exocytosis. This assumption was confirmed by the interaction of SEPT4 with syntaxin 1A, and by its inhibiting activity on stimulated secretion. By widening the analysis of SEPT4, we identified Pin1 as an interacting protein. Pin1 is an enzyme which catalyzes the cis-trans isomerization of the peptide bond preceding a proline residue. In this context, we showed that the interaction between these two proteins depends on the WW domain of Pin 1. This domain has been shown to function as a phosphoserine- or phosphothreonine¬binding module. This last result prompted us to examine phosphorylation of SEPT4. We demonstrated that the N-terminal portion of SEPT4 was phosphorylated by the Cdk5 kinase. The co-expression of Cdk5 with 5EPT4 stimulates SEPT4 degradation, independently of the proteasome pathway. Thus, these observations provide evidence for the engagement of SEPT4 in the regulation of exocytosis, and supports the role of p53 in the control of exocytosis, via SEPT4, which constitutes a new functional role for this guardian of the genome.
Space Competition and Time Delays in Human Range Expansions. Application to the Neolithic Transition
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Space competition effects are well-known in many microbiological and ecological systems. Here we analyze such an effectin human populations. The Neolithic transition (change from foraging to farming) was mainly the outcome of a demographic process that spread gradually throughout Europe from the Near East. In Northern Europe, archaeological data show a slowdown on the Neolithic rate of spread that can be related to a high indigenous (Mesolithic) population density hindering the advance as a result of the space competition between the two populations. We measure this slowdown from a database of 902 Early Neolithic sites and develop a time-delayed reaction-diffusion model with space competition between Neolithic and Mesolithic populations, to predict the observed speeds. The comparison of the predicted speed with the observations and with a previous non-delayed model show that both effects, the time delay effect due to the generation lag and the space competition between populations, are crucial in order to understand the observations
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Recently a fingering morphology, resembling the hydrodynamic Saffman-Taylor instability, was identified in the quasi-two-dimensional electrodeposition of copper. We present here measurements of the dispersion relation of the growing front. The instability is accompanied by gravity-driven convection rolls at the electrodes, which are examined using particle image velocimetry. While at the anode the theory presented by Chazalviel et al. [J. Electroanal. Chem. 407, 61 (1996)] describes the convection roll, the flow field at the cathode is more complicated because of the growing deposit. In particular, the analysis of the orientation of the velocity vectors reveals some lag of the development of the convection roll compared to the finger envelope.
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The coupling between topography, waves and currents in the surf zone may selforganize to produce the formation of shore-transverse or shore-oblique sand bars on an otherwise alongshore uniform beach. In the absence of shore-parallel bars, this has been shown by previous studies of linear stability analysis, but is now extended to the finite-amplitude regime. To this end, a nonlinear model coupling wave transformation and breaking, a shallow-water equations solver, sediment transport and bed updating is developed. The sediment flux consists of a stirring factor multiplied by the depthaveraged current plus a downslope correction. It is found that the cross-shore profile of the ratio of stirring factor to water depth together with the wave incidence angle primarily determine the shape and the type of bars, either transverse or oblique to the shore. In the latter case, they can open an acute angle against the current (upcurrent oriented) or with the current (down-current oriented). At the initial stages of development, both the intensity of the instability which is responsible for the formation of the bars and the damping due to downslope transport grow at a similar rate with bar amplitude, the former being somewhat stronger. As bars keep on growing, their finite-amplitude shape either enhances downslope transport or weakens the instability mechanism so that an equilibrium between both opposing tendencies occurs, leading to a final saturated amplitude. The overall shape of the saturated bars in plan view is similar to that of the small-amplitude ones. However, the final spacings may be up to a factor of 2 larger and final celerities can also be about a factor of 2 smaller or larger. In the case of alongshore migrating bars, the asymmetry of the longshore sections, the lee being steeper than the stoss, is well reproduced. Complex dynamics with merging and splitting of individual bars sometimes occur. Finally, in the case of shore-normal incidence the rip currents in the troughs between the bars are jet-like while the onshore return flow is wider and weaker as is observed in nature.
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A laboratory investigation was undertaken to determine the limiting model Reynolds number above which the scour behavior of rock protected structures can be reproduced in hydraulic models scaled according to the Froude criterion. A submerged jet was passed over an initially full scour pocket containing uniform glass spheres and the rate of scour was measured as a function of time. The dimensions of the scour pocket and jet and the particle diameters were varied as needed to maintain strict geometric similarity. For each of two different Froude numbers the Reynolds number was varied over a wide range. The normalized scour rate was found to be practically independent of the Reynolds number, R, (based on the jet velocity and particle diameter) at values of R above about 2.5 x 10^3, and to decrease with Rat smaller values. A grid placed in the jet was found to have a very strong effect on the scour rate. In an attempt to explain the effect of R on the scour behavior, turbulent pressure and velocity fluctuations were measured in air flows and water flows, respectively, over rigid scour pockets having the same geometry as those formed in the scour experiments. The normalized spectra of the fluctuations were found to be nearly independent of R, but the flow pattern was found to be very sensitive to the inlet condition, the jet deflecting upward or downward in a not wholly explainable manner. This indicates that scour behavior can be modeled only if the approach flow is also accurately modeled.
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The overarching goal of the proposed research was to provide a predictive tool for knickpoint propagation within the HCA (Hungry Canyon Alliance) territory. Knickpoints threaten the stability of bridge structures in Western Iowa. The study involved detailed field investigations over two years in order to monitor the upstream migration of a knickpoint on Mud Creek in Mills County, IA and identify the key mechanisms triggering knickpoint propagation. A state-of-the-art laser level system mounted on a movable truss provided continuous measurements of the knickpoint front for different flow conditions. A pressure transducer found in proximity of the truss provided simultaneous measurements of the flow depth. The laser and pressure transducer measurements led to the identification of the conditions at which the knickpoint migration commences. It was suggested that negative pressures developed by the reverse roller flow near the toe of the knickpoint face triggered undercutting of the knickpoint at this location. The pressure differential between the negative pressure and the atmospheric pressure also draws the impinging jet closer to the knickpoint face producing scour. In addition, the pressure differential may induce suction of sediment from the face. Other contributing factors include slump failure, seepage effects, and local fluvial erosion due to the exerted fluid shear. The prevailing flow conditions and soil information along with the channel cross-sectional geometry and gradient were used as inputs to a transcritical, one dimensional, hydraulic/geomorphic numerical model, which was used to map the flow characteristics and shear stress conditions near the knickpoint. Such detailed flow calculations do not exist in the published literature. The coupling of field and modeling work resulted in the development of a blueprint methodology, which can be adopted in different parts of the country for evaluating knickpoint evolution. This information will assist local government agencies in better understanding the principal factors that cause knickpoint propagation and help estimate the needed response time to control the propagation of a knickpoint after one has been identified.
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Experimental research has identified many putative agents of amphibian decline, yet the population-level consequences of these agents remain unknown, owing to lack of information on compensatory density dependence in natural populations. Here, we investigate the relative importance of intrinsic (density-dependent) and extrinsic (climatic) factors impacting the dynamics of a tree frog (Hyla arborea) population over 22 years. A combination of log-linear density dependence and rainfall (with a 2-year time lag corresponding to development time) explain 75% of the variance in the rate of increase. Such fluctuations around a variable return point might be responsible for the seemingly erratic demography and disequilibrium dynamics of many amphibian populations.