Long-term variation of tropical rock lobster panulirus ornatus (decapoda, palinuridae) growth inTorres Strait, Australia

This analysis of all carapace length measurements collected between 1989 and 2009, during scientific surveys, describes the variation of tropical rock lobster, Panulirus ornatus, somatic growth in Torres Strait. Multiple models of carapace length frequency distributions were compared by maximum likelihood to determine which hypotheses were most supported by the data. The best model assumed sex and cohort-specific Von Bertalanffy's parameters. These estimates are consistent with results derived from tagging data collected in the 1980s and provide new information on parameters' uncertainty. In the past two decades, growth rates have fluctuated inter-annually without displaying any distinctive trend. Associated uncertainties are large, suggesting that sampling will need to be intensified in order to detect an effect of climate change.

Finite element analysis of moving contact in mechanically fastened joints

The Finite Element Method (FEM) has made a number of otherwise intractable problems solvable. An important aspect for achieving an economical and accurate solution through FEM is matching the formulation and the computational organisation to the problem. This was realised forcefully in the present case of the solution of a class of moving contact boundary value problems of fastener joints. This paper deals with the problem of changing contact at the pin-hole interface of a fastener joint. Due to moving contact, the stresses and displacements are nonlinear with load. This would, in general, need an interactive-incremental approach for solution. However, by posing the problem in an inverse way, a solution is sought for obtaining loads to suit given contact configuration. Numerical results are given for typical isotropic and composite plates with rigid pins. Two cases of loading are considered: (i) load applied only at the edges of the plate and (ii) load applied at the pin and reacted at a part of the edge of the plate. Load-contact relationships, compliance and stress-patterns are investigated. This paper clearly demonstrates the simplification achieved by a suitable formulation of the problem. The results are of significance to the design and analysis of fastener joints.

Land leasing, land degradation and agricultural productivity in Finland

This study analysed whether the land tenure insecurity problem has led to a decline in long-term land improvements (liming and phosphorus fertilization) under the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and Nordic production conditions in European Union (EU) countries such as Finland. The results suggests that under traditional cash lease contracts, which are encouraged by the existing land leasing regulations and agricultural subsidy programs, the land tenure insecurity problem on leased land reduces land improvements that have a long pay-back period. In particular, soil pH was found to be significantly lower on land cultivated under a lease contract compared to land owned by the farmers themselves. The results also indicate that land improvements could not be reversed by land markets, because land owners would otherwise have carried out land improvements even if not farming by themselves. To reveal the causality between land tenure and land improvements, the dynamic optimisation problem was solved by a stochastic dynamic programming routine with known parameters for one-period returns and transition equations. The model parameters represented Finnish soil quality and production conditions. The decision rules were solved for alternative likelihood scenarios over the continuation of the fixed-term lease contract. The results suggest that as the probability of non-renewal of the lease contract increases, farmers quickly reduce investments in irreversible land improvements and, thereafter, yields gradually decline. The simulations highlighted the observed trends of a decline in land improvements on land parcels that are cultivated under lease contracts. Land tenure has resulted in the neglect of land improvement in Finland. This study aimed to analyze whether these challenges could be resolved by a tax policy that encourages land sales. Using Finnish data, real estate tax and a temporal relaxation on the taxation of capital gains showed some potential for the restructuring of land ownership. Potential sellers who could not be revealed by traditional logit models were identified with the latent class approach. Those landowners with an intention to sell even without a policy change were sensitive to temporal relaxation in the taxation of capital gains. In the long term, productivity and especially productivity growth are necessary conditions for the survival of farms and the food industry in Finland. Technical progress was found to drive the increase in productivity. The scale had only a moderate effect and for the whole study period (1976–2006) the effect was close to zero. Total factor productivity (TFP) increased, depending on the model, by 0.6–1.7% per year. The results demonstrated that the increase in productivity was hindered by the policy changes introduced in 1995. It is also evidenced that the increase in land leasing is connected to these policy changes. Land institutions and land tenure questions are essential in agricultural and rural policies on all levels, from local to international. Land ownership and land titles are commonly tied to fundamental political, economic and social questions. A fair resolution calls for innovative and new solutions both on national and international levels. However, this seems to be a problem when considering the application of EU regulations to member states inheriting divergent landownership structures and farming cultures. The contribution of this study is in describing the consequences of fitting EU agricultural policy to Finnish agricultural land tenure conditions and heritage.

Environmental and fishing effects on the dynamics of brown tiger prawn (Penaeus esculentus) in Moreton Bay (Australia)

This analysis of the variations of brown tiger prawn (Penaeus esculentus) catch in Moreton Bay multispecies trawl fishery estimated catchability using a delay difference model. It integrated several factors responsible for variations in catchability: targeting of fishing effort, increasing fishing power and changing availability. An analysis of covariance was used to define fishing events targeted at brown tiger prawns. A general linear model estimated inter-annual variations of fishing power. Temperature-induced changes in prawn behaviour played an important role on the dynamics of this fishery. Maximum likelihood estimates of targeted catchability (4.09 ± 0.42 × 10−4 boat-day−1) were twice as large as non-targeted catchability (1.86 ± 0.25 × 10−4 boat-day−1). The causes of recent declines in fishing effort in this fishery were discussed.

Soil nitrogen—crop response calibration relationships and criteria for winter cereal crops grown in Australia

More than 1200 wheat and 120 barley experiments conducted in Australia to examine yield responses to applied nitrogen (N) fertiliser are contained in a national database of field crops nutrient research (BFDC National Database). The yield responses are accompanied by various pre-plant soil test data to quantify plant-available N and other indicators of soil fertility status or mineralisable N. A web application (BFDC Interrogator), developed to access the database, enables construction of calibrations between relative crop yield ((Y0/Ymax) × 100) and N soil test value. In this paper we report the critical soil test values for 90% RY (CV90) and the associated critical ranges (CR90, defined as the 70% confidence interval around that CV90) derived from analysis of various subsets of these winter cereal experiments. Experimental programs were conducted throughout Australia’s main grain-production regions in different eras, starting from the 1960s in Queensland through to Victoria during 2000s. Improved management practices adopted during the period were reflected in increasing potential yields with research era, increasing from an average Ymax of 2.2 t/ha in Queensland in the 1960s and 1970s, to 3.4 t/ha in South Australia (SA) in the 1980s, to 4.3 t/ha in New South Wales (NSW) in the 1990s, and 4.2 t/ha in Victoria in the 2000s. Various sampling depths (0.1–1.2 m) and methods of quantifying available N (nitrate-N or mineral-N) from pre-planting soil samples were used and provided useful guides to the need for supplementary N. The most regionally consistent relationships were established using nitrate-N (kg/ha) in the top 0.6 m of the soil profile, with regional and seasonal variation in CV90 largely accounted for through impacts on experimental Ymax. The CV90 for nitrate-N within the top 0.6 m of the soil profile for wheat crops increased from 36 to 110 kg nitrate-N/ha as Ymax increased over the range 1 to >5 t/ha. Apparent variation in CV90 with seasonal moisture availability was entirely consistent with impacts on experimental Ymax. Further analyses of wheat trials with available grain protein (~45% of all experiments) established that grain yield and not grain N content was the major driver of crop N demand and CV90. Subsets of data explored the impact of crop management practices such as crop rotation or fallow length on both pre-planting profile mineral-N and CV90. Analyses showed that while management practices influenced profile mineral-N at planting and the likelihood and size of yield response to applied N fertiliser, they had no significant impact on CV90. A level of risk is involved with the use of pre-plant testing to determine the need for supplementary N application in all Australian dryland systems. In southern and western regions, where crop performance is based almost entirely on in-crop rainfall, this risk is offset by the management opportunity to split N applications during crop growth in response to changing crop yield potential. In northern cropping systems, where stored soil moisture at sowing is indicative of minimum yield potential, erratic winter rainfall increases uncertainty about actual yield potential as well as reducing the opportunity for effective in-season applications.

Estimating Resource Requirements to Staff a Response to a Medium to Large Outbreak of Foot and Mouth Disease in Australia

A recent report to the Australian Government identified concerns relating to Australia's capacity to respond to a medium to large outbreak of FMD. To assess the resources required, the AusSpread disease simulation model was used to develop a plausible outbreak scenario that included 62 infected premises in five different states at the time of detection, 28 days after the disease entered the first property in Victoria. Movements of infected animals and/or contaminated product/equipment led to smaller outbreaks in NSW, Queensland, South Australia and Tasmania. With unlimited staff resources, the outbreak was eradicated in 63 days with 54 infected premises and a 98% chance of eradication within 3 months. This unconstrained response was estimated to involve 2724 personnel. Unlimited personnel was considered unrealistic, and therefore, the course of the outbreak was modelled using three levels of staffing and the probability of achieving eradication within 3 or 6 months of introduction determined. Under the baseline staffing level, there was only a 16% probability that the outbreak would be eradicated within 3 months, and a 60% probability of eradication in 6 months. Deployment of an additional 60 personnel in the first 3 weeks of the response increased the likelihood of eradication in 3 months to 68%, and 100% in 6 months. Deployment of further personnel incrementally increased the likelihood of timely eradication and decreased the duration and size of the outbreak. Targeted use of vaccination in high-risk areas coupled with the baseline personnel resources increased the probability of eradication in 3 months to 74% and to 100% in 6 months. This required 25 vaccination teams commencing 12 days into the control program increasing to 50 vaccination teams 3 weeks later. Deploying an equal number of additional personnel to surveillance and infected premises operations was equally effective in reducing the outbreak size and duration.

Systematic review of the psychological consequences of false-positive screening mammograms

- Background In the UK, women aged 50–73 years are invited for screening by mammography every 3 years. In 2009–10, more than 2.24 million women in this age group in England were invited to take part in the programme, of whom 73% attended a screening clinic. Of these, 64,104 women were recalled for assessment. Of those recalled, 81% did not have breast cancer; these women are described as having a false-positive mammogram. - Objective The aim of this systematic review was to identify the psychological impact on women of false-positive screening mammograms and any evidence for the effectiveness of interventions designed to reduce this impact. We were also looking for evidence of effects in subgroups of women. - Data sources MEDLINE, MEDLINE In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations, EMBASE, Health Management Information Consortium, Cochrane Central Register for Controlled Trials, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Centre for Reviews and Dissemination (CRD) Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects, CRD Health Technology Assessment (HTA), Cochrane Methodology, Web of Science, Science Citation Index, Social Sciences Citation Index, Conference Proceedings Citation Index-Science, Conference Proceeding Citation Index-Social Science and Humanities, PsycINFO, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, Sociological Abstracts, the International Bibliography of the Social Sciences, the British Library's Electronic Table of Contents and others. Initial searches were carried out between 8 October 2010 and 25 January 2011. Update searches were carried out on 26 October 2011 and 23 March 2012. - Review methods Based on the inclusion criteria, titles and abstracts were screened independently by two reviewers. Retrieved papers were reviewed and selected using the same independent process. Data were extracted by one reviewer and checked by another. Each included study was assessed for risk of bias. - Results Eleven studies were found from 4423 titles and abstracts. Studies that used disease-specific measures found a negative psychological impact lasting up to 3 years. Distress increased with the level of invasiveness of the assessment procedure. Studies using instruments designed to detect clinical levels of morbidity did not find this effect. Women with false-positive mammograms were less likely to return for the next round of screening [relative risk (RR) 0.97; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.96 to 0.98] than those with normal mammograms, were more likely to have interval cancer [odds ratio (OR) 3.19 (95% CI 2.34 to 4.35)] and were more likely to have cancer detected at the next screening round [OR 2.15 (95% CI 1.55 to 2.98)]. - Limitations This study was limited to UK research and by the robustness of the included studies, which frequently failed to report quality indicators, for example failure to consider the risk of bias or confounding, or failure to report participants' demographic characteristics. - Conclusions We conclude that the experience of having a false-positive screening mammogram can cause breast cancer-specific psychological distress that may endure for up to 3 years, and reduce the likelihood that women will return for their next round of mammography screening. These results should be treated cautiously owing to inherent weakness of observational designs and weaknesses in reporting. Future research should include a qualitative interview study and observational studies that compare generic and disease-specific measures, collect demographic data and include women from different social and ethnic groups.

Psychological consequences of false-positive screening mammograms in the UK

- Objectives To identify the psychological effects of false-positive screening mammograms in the UK. - Methods Systematic review of all controlled studies and qualitative studies of women with a false-positive screening mammogram. The control group participants had normal mammograms. All psychological outcomes including returning for routine screening were permitted. All studies had a narrative synthesis. - Results The searches returned seven includable studies (7/4423). Heterogeneity was such that meta-analysis was not possible. Studies using disease-specific measures found that, compared to normal results, there could be enduring psychological distress that lasted up to 3 years; the level of distress was related to the degree of invasiveness of the assessment. At 3 years the relative risks were, further mammography, 1.28 (95% CI 0.82 to 2.00), fine needle aspiration 1.80 (95% CI 1.17 to 2.77), biopsy 2.07 (95% CI 1.22 to 3.52) and early recall 1.82 (95% CI 1.22 to 2.72). Studies that used generic measures of anxiety and depression found no such impact up to 3 months after screening. Evidence suggests that women with false-positive mammograms have an increased likelihood of failing to reattend for routine screening, relative risk 0.97 (95% CI 0.96 to 0.98) compared with women with normal mammograms. - Conclusions Having a false-positive screening mammogram can cause breast cancer-specific distress for up to 3 years. The degree of distress is related to the invasiveness of the assessment. Women with false-positive mammograms are less likely to return for routine assessment than those with normal ones.

Determinants of farmer retirement and farm succession in Finland

In the past decade, the Finnish agricultural sector has undergone rapid structural changes. The number of farms has decreased and the average farm size has increased when the number of farms transferred to new entrants has decreased. Part of the structural change in agriculture is manifested in early retirement programmes. In studying farmers exit behaviour in different countries, institutional differences, incentive programmes and constraints are found to matter. In Finland, farmers early retirement programmes were first introduced in 1974 and, during the last ten years, they have been carried out within the European Union framework for these programmes. The early retirement benefits are farmer specific and de-pend on the level of pension insurance the farmer has paid over his active farming years. In order to predict the future development of the agricultural sector, farmers have been frequently asked about their future plans and their plans for succession. However, the plans the farmers made for succession have been found to be time inconsistent. This study estimates the value of farmers stated succession plans in predicting revealed succession decisions. A stated succession plan exists when a farmer answers in a survey questionnaire that the farm is going to be transferred to a new entrant within a five-year period. The succession is revealed when the farm is transferred to a suc-cessor. Stated and revealed behaviour was estimated as a recursive Binomial Probit Model, which accounts for the censoring of the decision variables and controls for a potential correlation between the two equations. The results suggest that the succession plans, as stated by elderly farmers in the questionnaires, do not provide information that is significant and valuable in predicting true, com-pleted successions. Therefore, farmer exit should be analysed based on observed behaviour rather than on stated plans and intentions. As farm retirement plays a crucial role in determining the characteristics of structural change in agriculture, it is important to establish the factors which determine an exit from farming among eld-erly farmers and how off-farm income and income losses affect their exit choices. In this study, the observed choice of pension scheme by elderly farmers was analysed by a bivariate probit model. Despite some variations in significance and the effects of each factor, the ages of the farmer and spouse, the age and number of potential successors, farm size, income loss when retiring and the location of the farm together with the production line were found to be the most important determi-nants of early retirement and the transfer or closure of farms. Recently, the labour status of the spouse has been found to contribute significantly to individual retirement decisions. In this study, the effect of spousal retirement and economic incentives related to the timing of a farming couple s early retirement decision were analysed with a duration model. The results suggest that an expected pension in particular advances farm transfers. It was found that on farms operated by a couple, both early retirement and farm succession took place more often than on farms operated by a single person. However, the existence of a spouse delayed the timing of early retirement. Farming couples were found to co-ordinate their early retirement decisions when they both exit through agricultural retirement programmes, but such a co-ordination did not exist when one of the spouses retired under other pension schemes. Besides changes in the agricultural structure, the share and amount of off-farm income of a farm family s total income has also increased. In the study, the effect of off-farm income on farmers retirement decisions, in addition to other financial factors, was analysed. The unknown parameters were first estimated by a switching-type multivariate probit model and then by the simulated maxi-mum likelihood (SML) method, controlling for farmer specific fixed effects and serial correlation of the errors. The results suggest that elderly farmers off-farm income is a significant determinant in a farmer s choice to exit and close down the farm. However, off-farm income only has a short term effect on structural changes in agriculture since it does not significantly contribute to the timing of farm successions.

Improved estimation of size-transition matrices using tag-recapture data

We derive a new method for determining size-transition matrices (STMs) that eliminates probabilities of negative growth and accounts for individual variability. STMs are an important part of size-structured models, which are used in the stock assessment of aquatic species. The elements of STMs represent the probability of growth from one size class to another, given a time step. The growth increment over this time step can be modelled with a variety of methods, but when a population construct is assumed for the underlying growth model, the resulting STM may contain entries that predict negative growth. To solve this problem, we use a maximum likelihood method that incorporates individual variability in the asymptotic length, relative age at tagging, and measurement error to obtain von Bertalanffy growth model parameter estimates. The statistical moments for the future length given an individual’s previous length measurement and time at liberty are then derived. We moment match the true conditional distributions with skewed-normal distributions and use these to accurately estimate the elements of the STMs. The method is investigated with simulated tag–recapture data and tag–recapture data gathered from the Australian eastern king prawn (Melicertus plebejus).

Generalised growth models for aquatic species with an application to blacklip abalone (Haliotis rubra)

This paper presents a maximum likelihood method for estimating growth parameters for an aquatic species that incorporates growth covariates, and takes into consideration multiple tag-recapture data. Individual variability in asymptotic length, age-at-tagging, and measurement error are also considered in the model structure. Using distribution theory, the log-likelihood function is derived under a generalised framework for the von Bertalanffy and Gompertz growth models. Due to the generality of the derivation, covariate effects can be included for both models with seasonality and tagging effects investigated. Method robustness is established via comparison with the Fabens, improved Fabens, James and a non-linear mixed-effects growth models, with the maximum likelihood method performing the best. The method is illustrated further with an application to blacklip abalone (Haliotis rubra) for which a strong growth-retarding tagging effect that persisted for several months was detected. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Defining the density debate in Brisbane: how urban consolidation is represented in the media

Rapid population growth, changing demographic profiles and increased focus on sustainable urban form has led to significant changes in settlement patterns in Australian cities. Growth management strategies are increasingly employed to help cities manage strain on infrastructure, housing and ecosystems. Urban consolidation is one such strategy and has been adopted by all Australian capital cities. Despite strong governmental support, urban consolidation has triggered much academic debate and has often been accompanied by staunch community opposition and complaints from the development industry about barriers to the provision of higher density housing. Greater understanding of stakeholder representations of higher density housing is important for planning, given the strong policy focus on urban consolidation nationally. This paper contributes to existing urban consolidation literature by empirically demonstrating how urban consolidation is represented in Brisbane’s newspaper media through the use of metaphors. Its conceptual departure point is Social Representations Theory, drawing on the theory’s notion of objectification to illustrate how the media translates the abstract notion of urban consolidation into a tangible and understandable object. The objectification of urban consolidation is identified and discussed relative to four themes: land use conflict; growth; neighbourhood change and apartment living. This paper argues that understanding stakeholder representations is important for planners seeking to promote and negotiate delivery of higher density development. It concludes that stakeholder representations can highlight key areas of contention to be addressed by planners, provide indications on the likelihood of public acceptance of increased housing densities and delineate the boundaries of urban consolidation debates.

A new family of multivariate heavy-tailed distributions with variable marginal amounts of tailweight: Application to robust clustering

We propose a family of multivariate heavy-tailed distributions that allow variable marginal amounts of tailweight. The originality comes from introducing multidimensional instead of univariate scale variables for the mixture of scaled Gaussian family of distributions. In contrast to most existing approaches, the derived distributions can account for a variety of shapes and have a simple tractable form with a closed-form probability density function whatever the dimension. We examine a number of properties of these distributions and illustrate them in the particular case of Pearson type VII and t tails. For these latter cases, we provide maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters and illustrate their modelling flexibility on simulated and real data clustering examples.

Phyllosticta species on orchids (Orchidaceae), introducing Phyllosticta speewahensis sp. nov. (Phyllostictaceae, Ascomycota) from northern Australia

Several species of Phyllosticta (syn. Guignardia) have been described from orchids worldwide. A new species, Phyllosticta speewahensis, is proposed for a specimen isolated from leaf spots on a hybrid Vanda orchid in northern Queensland, Australia. Phylogenetic analysis of the nrDNA internal transcribed spacer region (ITS) and partial translation elongation factor 1-alpha (TEF1) gene sequences showed that P. speewahensis is most closely related to P. hostae. The likelihood that orchids harbour further cryptic species of endophytic and pathogenic Phyllosticta species is discussed.

Nineteenth century narratives reveal historic catch rates for Australian snapper (Pagrus auratus)

Snapper (Pagrus auratus) is widely distributed throughout subtropical and temperate southern oceans and forms a significant recreational and commercial fishery in Queensland, Australia. Using data from government reports, media sources, popular publications and a government fisheries survey carried out in 1910, we compiled information on individual snapper fishing trips that took place prior to the commencement of fisherywide organized data collection, from 1871 to 1939. In addition to extracting all available quantitative data, we translated qualitative information into bounded estimates and used multiple imputation to handle missing values, forming 287 records for which catch rate (snapper fisher−1 h−1) could be derived. Uncertainty was handled through a parametric maximum likelihood framework (a transformed trivariate Gaussian), which facilitated statistical comparisons between data sources. No statistically significant differences in catch rates were found among media sources and the government fisheries survey. Catch rates remained stable throughout the time series, averaging 3.75 snapper fisher−1 h−1 (95% confidence interval, 3.42–4.09) as the fishery expanded into new grounds. In comparison, a contemporary (1993–2002) south-east Queensland charter fishery produced an average catch rate of 0.4 snapper fisher−1 h−1 (95% confidence interval, 0.31–0.58). These data illustrate the productivity of a fishery during its earliest years of development and represent the earliest catch rate data globally for this species. By adopting a formalized approach to address issues common to many historical records – missing data, a lack of quantitative information and reporting bias – our analysis demonstrates the potential for historical narratives to contribute to contemporary fisheries management.