877 resultados para Individual-based modeling
Resumo:
The high acute toxicity of acrylonitrile may be a result of its intrinsic biological reactivity or of its metabolite cyanide. Intravenous N-acetylcysteine has been recommended for treatment of accidental intoxications in acrylonitrile workers, but such recommendations vary internationally. Acrylonitrile is metabolized in humans and experimental animals via two competing pathways; the glutathione-dependent pathway is considered to represent an avenue of detoxication whilst the oxidative pathway leads to a genotoxic epoxide, cyanoethylene oxide, and to elimination of cyanide. Cases of acute acrylonitrile overexposure or intoxication have occurred within persons having industrial contact with acrylonitrile; the route of exposure was by inhalation and/or by skin contact. The combined observations lead to the conclusion of a much higher impact of the oxidative metabolism of acrylonitrile in humans than in rodents. This is confirmed by differences in the clinical picture of acute life-threatening intoxications in both species, as well as by differential efficacies of antidotes. A combination of N-acetylcysteine with sodium thiosulfate seems an appropriate measure for antidote therapy of acute acrylonitrile intoxications. Clinical observations also highlight the practical importance of human individual susceptibility differences. Furthermore, differential adduct monitoring, assessing protein adducts with different rates of decay, enables the development of more elaborated biological monitoring strategies for the surveillance of workers with potential acrylonitrile contact.
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After attending this presentation, attendees will gain awareness of the ontogeny of cranial maturation, specifically: (1) the fusion timings of primary ossification centers in the basicranium; and (2) the temporal pattern of closure of the anterior fontanelle, to develop new population-specific age standards for medicolegal death investigation of Australian subadults. This presentation will impact the forensic science community by demonstrating the potential of a contemporary forensic subadult Computed Tomography (CT) database of cranial scans and population data, to recalibrate existing standards for age estimation and quantify growth and development of Australian children. This research welcomes a study design applicable to all countries faced with paucity in skeletal repositories. Accurate assessment of age-at-death of skeletal remains represents a key element in forensic anthropology methodology. In Australian casework, age standards derived from American reference samples are applied in light of scarcity in documented Australian skeletal collections. Currently practitioners rely on antiquated standards, such as the Scheuer and Black1 compilation for age estimation, despite implications of secular trends and population variation. Skeletal maturation standards are population specific and should not be extrapolated from one population to another, while secular changes in skeletal dimensions and accelerated maturation underscore the importance of establishing modern standards to estimate age in modern subadults. Despite CT imaging becoming the gold standard for skeletal analysis in Australia, practitioners caution the application of forensic age standards derived from macroscopic inspection to a CT medium, suggesting a need for revised methodologies. Multi-slice CT scans of subadult crania and cervical vertebrae 1 and 2 were acquired from 350 Australian individuals (males: n=193, females: n=157) aged birth to 12 years. The CT database, projected at 920 individuals upon completion (January 2014), comprises thin-slice DICOM data (resolution: 0.5/0.3mm) of patients scanned since 2010 at major Brisbane Childrens Hospitals. DICOM datasets were subject to manual segmentation, followed by the construction of multi-planar and volume rendering cranial models, for subsequent scoring. The union of primary ossification centers of the occipital bone were scored as open, partially closed or completely closed; while the fontanelles, and vertebrae were scored in accordance with two stages. Transition analysis was applied to elucidate age at transition between union states for each center, and robust age parameters established using Bayesian statistics. In comparison to reported literature, closure of the fontanelles and contiguous sutures in Australian infants occur earlier than reported, with the anterior fontanelle transitioning from open to closed at 16.7±1.1 months. The metopic suture is closed prior to 10 weeks post-partum and completely obliterated by 6 months of age, independent of sex. Utilizing reverse engineering capabilities, an alternate method for infant age estimation based on quantification of fontanelle area and non-linear regression with variance component modeling will be presented. Closure models indicate that the greatest rate of change in anterior fontanelle area occurs prior to 5 months of age. This study complements the work of Scheuer and Black1, providing more specific age intervals for union and temporal maturity of each primary ossification center of the occipital bone. For example, dominant fusion of the sutura intra-occipitalis posterior occurs before 9 months of age, followed by persistence of a hyaline cartilage tongue posterior to the foramen magnum until 2.5 years; with obliteration at 2.9±0.1 years. Recalibrated age parameters for the atlas and axis are presented, with the anterior arch of the atlas appearing at 2.9 months in females and 6.3 months in males; while dentoneural, dentocentral and neurocentral junctions of the axis transitioned from non-union to union at 2.1±0.1 years in females and 3.7±0.1 years in males. These results are an exemplar of significant sexual dimorphism in maturation (p<0.05), with girls exhibiting union earlier than boys, justifying the need for segregated sex standards for age estimation. Studies such as this are imperative for providing updated standards for Australian forensic and pediatric practice and provide an insight into skeletal development of this population. During this presentation, the utility of novel regression models for age estimation of infants will be discussed, with emphasis on three-dimensional modeling capabilities of complex structures such as fontanelles, for the development of new age estimation methods.
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Purpose – Context-awareness has emerged as an important principle in the design of flexible business processes. The goal of the research is to develop an approach to extend context-aware business process modeling toward location-awareness. The purpose of this paper is to identify and conceptualize location-dependencies in process modeling. Design/methodology/approach – This paper uses a pattern-based approach to identify location-dependency in process models. The authors design specifications for these patterns. The authors present illustrative examples and evaluate the identified patterns through a literature review of published process cases. Findings – This paper introduces location-awareness as a new perspective to extend context-awareness in BPM research, by introducing relevant location concepts such as location-awareness and location-dependencies. The authors identify five basic location-dependent control-flow patterns that can be captured in process models. And the authors identify location-dependencies in several existing case studies of business processes. Research limitations/implications – The authors focus exclusively on the control-flow perspective of process models. Further work needs to extend the research to address location-dependencies in process data or resources. Further empirical work is needed to explore determinants and consequences of the modeling of location-dependencies. Originality/value – As existing literature mostly focusses on the broad context of business process, location in process modeling still is treated as “second class citizen” in theory and in practice. This paper discusses the vital role of location-dependencies within business processes. The proposed five basic location-dependent control-flow patterns are novel and useful to explain location-dependency in business process models. They provide a conceptual basis for further exploration of location-awareness in the management of business processes.
Empirical vehicle-to-vehicle pathloss modeling in highway, suburban and urban environments at 5.8GHz
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In this paper, we present a pathloss characterization for vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) communications based on empirical data collected from extensive measurement campaign performed under line-of-sight (LOS), non-line-of-sight (NLOS) and varying traffic densities. The experiment was conducted in three different V2V propagation environments: highway, suburban and urban at 5.8GHz. We developed pathloss models for each of the three different V2V environments considered. Based on a log-distance power law model, the values for the pathloss exponent and the standard deviation of shadowing were reported. The average pathloss exponent ranges from 1.77 for highway, 1.68 for the urban to 1.53 for the suburban environment. The reported results can contribute to vehicular network (VANET) simulators and can be used by system designers to develop, evaluate and validate new protocols and system designs under realistic propagation conditions.
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While existing multi-biometic Dempster-Shafer the- ory fusion approaches have demonstrated promising perfor- mance, they do not model the uncertainty appropriately, sug- gesting that further improvement can be achieved. This research seeks to develop a unified framework for multimodal biometric fusion to take advantage of the uncertainty concept of Dempster- Shafer theory, improving the performance of multi-biometric authentication systems. Modeling uncertainty as a function of uncertainty factors affecting the recognition performance of the biometric systems helps to address the uncertainty of the data and the confidence of the fusion outcome. A weighted combination of quality measures and classifiers performance (Equal Error Rate) are proposed to encode the uncertainty concept to improve the fusion. We also found that quality measures contribute unequally to the recognition performance, thus selecting only significant factors and fusing them with a Dempster-Shafer approach to generate an overall quality score play an important role in the success of uncertainty modeling. The proposed approach achieved a competitive performance (approximate 1% EER) in comparison with other Dempster-Shafer based approaches and other conventional fusion approaches.
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Objective This study examined whether maternal psychological distress mediates the relationship between presence of adolescent asthma and number of physician visits, and whether the association between maternal psychological distress and physician visits is moderated by adolescent general health. Methods Data were obtained from the Mater University Study of Pregnancy and included 4025 adolescents. Path analysis was used to examine mediating and moderating effects. Results Maternal psychological distress was found to partially mediate the relationship between adolescent asthma and number of physician visits, accounting for 25% of the effect of adolescent asthma on physician visits (p = .046). There was no evidence to suggest that adolescent general health moderated the association between maternal psychological distress and physician visits (p = .093). Conclusions The findings suggest that maternal psychological distress is associated with increased physician visits, regardless of adolescents' general health. Lowering maternal psychological distress may serve to reduce health care utilization and costs among adolescents with asthma.
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In this paper we propose a new multivariate GARCH model with time-varying conditional correlation structure. The time-varying conditional correlations change smoothly between two extreme states of constant correlations according to a predetermined or exogenous transition variable. An LM–test is derived to test the constancy of correlations and LM- and Wald tests to test the hypothesis of partially constant correlations. Analytical expressions for the test statistics and the required derivatives are provided to make computations feasible. An empirical example based on daily return series of five frequently traded stocks in the S&P 500 stock index completes the paper.
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This pilot project investigated the existing practices and processes of Proficient, Highly Accomplished and Lead teachers in the interpretation, analysis and implementation of National Assessment Program – Literacy and Numeracy (NAPLAN) data. A qualitative case study approach was the chosen methodology, with nine teachers across a variety of school sectors interviewed. Themes and sub-themes were identified from the participants’ interview responses revealing the ways in which Queensland teachers work with NAPLAN data. The data illuminated that generally individual schools and teachers adopted their own ways of working with data, with approaches ranging from individual/ad hoc, to hierarchical or a whole school approach. Findings also revealed that data are the responsibility of various persons from within the school hierarchy; some working with the data electronically whilst others rely on manual manipulation. Manipulation of data is used for various purposes including tracking performance, value adding and targeting programmes for specific groups of students, for example the gifted and talented. Whilst all participants had knowledge of intervention programmes and how practice could be modified, there were large inconsistencies in knowledge and skills across schools. Some see the use of data as a mechanism for accountability, whilst others mention data with regards to changing the school culture and identifying best practice. Overall, the findings showed inconsistencies in approach to focus area 5.4. Recommendations therefore include a more national approach to the use of educational data.
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It is well known that, for major infrastructure networks such as electricity, gas, railway, road, and urban water networks, disruptions at one point have a knock on effect throughout the network. There is an impressive amount of individual research projects examining the vulnerability of critical infrastructure network. However, there is little understanding of the totality of the contribution made by these projects and their interrelationships. This makes their review a difficult process for both new and existing researchers in the field. To address this issue, a two-step literature review process is used, to provide an overview of the vulnerability of the transportation network in terms of four main themes - research objective, transportation mode, disruption scenario and vulnerability indicator –involving the analysis of related articles from 2001 to 2013. Two limitations of existing research are identified: (1) the limited amount of studies relating to multi-layer transportation network vulnerability analysis, and (2) the lack of evaluation methods to explore the relationship between structure vulnerability and dynamical functional vulnerability. In addition to indicating that more attention needs to be paid to these two aspects in future, the analysis provides a new avenue for the discovery of knowledge, as well as an improved understanding of transportation network vulnerability.
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With the increase in complexity of engineering projects and design quality in the construction industry, the traditional two-dimensional "Information Island" approach to design is becoming less able to meet current design needs due to its lack of coordination and information sharing. Collaborative design using a Build Information Modeling (BIM) technology platform promises to provide an effective means of designing and communicating through networking and real-time data sharing. This paper first analyzes the shortcomings of the two-dimensional design process and the potential application of collaborative design. By combining the attributes of BIM, a preliminary BIM-based building design collaborative platform is developed to improve the design approach and support a more collaborative design process. A real-life case is presented to demonstrate the feasibility and validity of the platform and its use in practice. From this, it is shown that BIM has the potential to realize effective information sharing and reduce errors, thereby improving design quality. The BIM-based building design collaborative platform presented is expected to provide the support needed for the extensive application of BIM in collaborative design and promote a new attitude to project management.
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This article presents a brief overview of the development of the Individual Education Plan (IEP) and prompts teachers to question its use and relevance in an era of accountability in Australian schools. Many Australian teachers do not realise that the IEP was adopted from the United States where is was legislated practice based on that country's Human Rights Legislation. It is not included in the Australian policy context. Though not embedded in the legislation of many other countries, it became a process and a product synonymous with the education of students with disability worldwide. In the era of standards-based education and curriculum for all, the relevance of the IEP process and product has been questioned or re-imaged in some Australian schools. The story of one school leader, Violet, is presented here as an example.
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Steel hollow sections used in structures such as bridges, buildings and space structures involve different strengthening techniques according to their structural purpose and shape of the structural member. One such technique is external bonding of CFRP sheets to steel tubes. The performance of CFRP strengthening for steel structures has been proven under static loading while limited studies have been conducted on their behaviour under impact loading. In this study, a comprehensive numerical investigation is carried out to evaluate the response of CFRP strengthened steel tubes under dynamic axial impact loading. Impact force, axial deformation impact velocities are studied. The results of the numerical investigations are validated by experimental results. Based on the developed finite element (FE) model several output parameters are discussed. The results show that CFRP wrapping is an effective strengthening technique to increase the axial dynamic load bearing capacity by increasing the stiffness of the steel tube.
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Process modeling – the design and use of graphical documentations of an organization’s business processes – is a key method to document and use information about the operations of businesses. Still, despite current interest in process modeling, this research area faces essential challenges. Key unanswered questions concern the impact of process modeling in organizational practice, and the mechanisms through which impacts are developed. To answer these questions and to provide a better understanding of process modeling impact, I turn to the concept of affordances. Affordances describe the possibilities for goal-oriented action that a technical object offers to a user. This notion has received growing attention from IS researchers. The purpose of my research is to further develop the IS discipline’s understanding of affordances and impacts from information objects, such as process models used by analysts for information systems analysis and design. Specifically, I seek to extend existing theory on the emergence, perception and actualization of affordances. I develop a research model that describes the process by which affordances emerge between an individual and an object, how affordances are perceived, and how they are actualized by the individual. The proposed model also explains the role of available information for the individual, and the influence of perceived actualization effort. I operationalize and test this research model empirically, using a full-cycle, mixed methods study consisting of case study and experiment.
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Due to the availability of huge number of web services, finding an appropriate Web service according to the requirements of a service consumer is still a challenge. Moreover, sometimes a single web service is unable to fully satisfy the requirements of the service consumer. In such cases, combinations of multiple inter-related web services can be utilised. This paper proposes a method that first utilises a semantic kernel model to find related services and then models these related Web services as nodes of a graph. An all-pair shortest-path algorithm is applied to find the best compositions of Web services that are semantically related to the service consumer requirement. The recommendation of individual and composite Web services composition for a service request is finally made. Empirical evaluation confirms that the proposed method significantly improves the accuracy of service discovery in comparison to traditional keyword-based discovery methods.
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INTRODUCTION: The first South African National Burden of Disease study quantified the underlying causes of premature mortality and morbidity experienced in South Africa in the year 2000. This was followed by a Comparative Risk Assessment to estimate the contributions of 17 selected risk factors to burden of disease in South Africa. This paper describes the health impact of exposure to four selected environmental risk factors: unsafe water, sanitation and hygiene; indoor air pollution from household use of solid fuels; urban outdoor air pollution and lead exposure. METHODS: The study followed World Health Organization comparative risk assessment methodology. Population-attributable fractions were calculated and applied to revised burden of disease estimates (deaths and disability adjusted life years, [DALYs]) from the South African Burden of Disease study to obtain the attributable burden for each selected risk factor. The burden attributable to the joint effect of the four environmental risk factors was also estimated taking into account competing risks and common pathways. Monte Carlo simulation-modeling techniques were used to quantify sampling, uncertainty. RESULTS: Almost 24 000 deaths were attributable to the joint effect of these four environmental risk factors, accounting for 4.6% (95% uncertainty interval 3.8-5.3%) of all deaths in South Africa in 2000. Overall the burden due to these environmental risks was equivalent to 3.7% (95% uncertainty interval 3.4-4.0%) of the total disease burden for South Africa, with unsafe water sanitation and hygiene the main contributor to joint burden. The joint attributable burden was especially high in children under 5 years of age, accounting for 10.8% of total deaths in this age group and 9.7% of burden of disease. CONCLUSION: This study highlights the public health impact of exposure to environmental risks and the significant burden of preventable disease attributable to exposure to these four major environmental risk factors in South Africa. Evidence-based policies and programs must be developed and implemented to address these risk factors at individual, household, and community levels.