Bubble geometry and chaotic pricing behaviour

This paper is a deductive theoretical enquiry into the flow of effects from the geometry of price bubbles/busts, to price indices, to pricing behaviours of sellers and buyers, and back to price bubbles/busts. The intent of the analysis is to suggest analytical approaches to identify the presence, maturity, and/or sustainability of a price bubble. We present a pricing model to emulate market behaviour, including numeric examples and charts of the interaction of supply and demand. The model extends into dynamic market solutions myopic (single- and multi-period) backward looking rational expectations to demonstrate how buyers and sellers interact to affect supply and demand and to show how capital gain expectations can be a destabilising influence – i.e. the lagged effects of past price gains can drive the market price away from long-run market-worth. Investing based on the outputs of past price-based valuation models appear to be more of a game-of-chance than a sound investment strategy.

Spoken term detection using fast phonetic decoding

While spoken term detection (STD) systems based on word indices provide good accuracy, there are several practical applications where it is infeasible or too costly to employ an LVCSR engine. An STD system is presented, which is designed to incorporate a fast phonetic decoding front-end and be robust to decoding errors whilst still allowing for rapid search speeds. This goal is achieved through mono-phone open-loop decoding coupled with fast hierarchical phone lattice search. Results demonstrate that an STD system that is designed with the constraint of a fast and simple phonetic decoding front-end requires a compromise to be made between search speed and search accuracy.

Intelligent prognostics of machinery health utilising suspended condition monitoring data

The ability to forecast machinery failure is vital to reducing maintenance costs, operation downtime and safety hazards. Recent advances in condition monitoring technologies have given rise to a number of prognostic models for forecasting machinery health based on condition data. Although these models have aided the advancement of the discipline, they have made only a limited contribution to developing an effective machinery health prognostic system. The literature review indicates that there is not yet a prognostic model that directly models and fully utilises suspended condition histories (which are very common in practice since organisations rarely allow their assets to run to failure); that effectively integrates population characteristics into prognostics for longer-range prediction in a probabilistic sense; which deduces the non-linear relationship between measured condition data and actual asset health; and which involves minimal assumptions and requirements. This work presents a novel approach to addressing the above-mentioned challenges. The proposed model consists of a feed-forward neural network, the training targets of which are asset survival probabilities estimated using a variation of the Kaplan-Meier estimator and a degradation-based failure probability density estimator. The adapted Kaplan-Meier estimator is able to model the actual survival status of individual failed units and estimate the survival probability of individual suspended units. The degradation-based failure probability density estimator, on the other hand, extracts population characteristics and computes conditional reliability from available condition histories instead of from reliability data. The estimated survival probability and the relevant condition histories are respectively presented as “training target” and “training input” to the neural network. The trained network is capable of estimating the future survival curve of a unit when a series of condition indices are inputted. Although the concept proposed may be applied to the prognosis of various machine components, rolling element bearings were chosen as the research object because rolling element bearing failure is one of the foremost causes of machinery breakdowns. Computer simulated and industry case study data were used to compare the prognostic performance of the proposed model and four control models, namely: two feed-forward neural networks with the same training function and structure as the proposed model, but neglected suspended histories; a time series prediction recurrent neural network; and a traditional Weibull distribution model. The results support the assertion that the proposed model performs better than the other four models and that it produces adaptive prediction outputs with useful representation of survival probabilities. This work presents a compelling concept for non-parametric data-driven prognosis, and for utilising available asset condition information more fully and accurately. It demonstrates that machinery health can indeed be forecasted. The proposed prognostic technique, together with ongoing advances in sensors and data-fusion techniques, and increasingly comprehensive databases of asset condition data, holds the promise for increased asset availability, maintenance cost effectiveness, operational safety and – ultimately – organisation competitiveness.

Motivation, development and validation of a new spectral greenness index : a spectral dimension related to foliage projective cover

A method is presented for the development of a regional Landsat-5 Thematic Mapper (TM) and Landsat-7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper plus (ETM+) spectral greenness index, coherent with a six-dimensional index set, based on a single ETM+ spectral image of a reference landscape. The first three indices of the set are determined by a polar transformation of the first three principal components of the reference image and relate to scene brightness, percent foliage projective cover (FPC) and water related features. The remaining three principal components, of diminishing significance with respect to the reference image, complete the set. The reference landscape, a 2200 km2 area containing a mix of cattle pasture, native woodland and forest, is located near Injune in South East Queensland, Australia. The indices developed from the reference image were tested using TM spectral images from 19 regionally dispersed areas in Queensland, representative of dissimilar landscapes containing woody vegetation ranging from tall closed forest to low open woodland. Examples of image transformations and two-dimensional feature space plots are used to demonstrate image interpretations related to the first three indices. Coherent, sensible, interpretations of landscape features in images composed of the first three indices can be made in terms of brightness (red), foliage cover (green) and water (blue). A limited comparison is made with similar existing indices. The proposed greenness index was found to be very strongly related to FPC and insensitive to smoke. A novel Bayesian, bounded space, modelling method, was used to validate the greenness index as a good predictor of FPC. Airborne LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) estimates of FPC along transects of the 19 sites provided the training and validation data. Other spectral indices from the set were found to be useful as model covariates that could improve FPC predictions. They act to adjust the greenness/FPC relationship to suit different spectral backgrounds. The inclusion of an external meteorological covariate showed that further improvements to regional-scale predictions of FPC could be gained over those based on spectral indices alone.

Damage assessment of 3D reinforced concrete frame under external explosion loading

Multi-storey buildings are highly vulnerable to terrorist bombing attacks in various parts of the world. Large numbers of casualties and extensive property damage result not only from blast overpressure, but also from the failing of structural components. Understanding the blast response and damage consequences of reinforced concrete (RC) building frames is therefore important when assessing multi-storey buildings designed to resist normal gravity loads. However, limited research has been conducted to identify the blast response and damage of RC frames in order to assess the vulnerability of entire buildings. This paper discusses the blast response and evaluation of damage of three-dimension (3D) RC rigid frame under potential blast loads scenarios. The explicit finite element modelling and analysis under time history blast pressure loads were carried out by LS DYNA code. Complete 3D RC frame was developed with relevant reinforcement details and material models with strain rate effect. Idealised triangular blast pressures calculated from standard manuals are applied on the front face of the model in the present investigation. The analysis results show the blast response, as displacements and material yielding of the structural elements in the RC frame. The level of damage is evaluated and classified according to the selected load case scenarios. Residual load carrying capacities are evaluated and level of damage was presented by the defined damage indices. This information is necessary to determine the vulnerability of existing multi-storey buildings with RC frames and to identify the level of damage under typical external explosion environments. It also provides basic guidance to the design of new buildings to resist blast loads.

Infrastructure Sustainability : Damage Assessment in Multiple-Girder Composite Bridges Using Vibration Characteristics

Assessing the structural health state of urban infrastructure is crucial in terms of infrastructure sustainability. This chapter uses dynamic computer simulation techniques to apply a procedure using vibration-based methods for damage assessment in multiple-girder composite bridges. In addition to changes in natural frequencies, this multi-criteria procedure incorporates two methods, namely, the modal flexibility and the modal strain energy method. Using the numerically simulated modal data obtained through finite element analysis software, algorithms based on modal flexibility and modal strain energy change, before and after damage, are obtained and used as the indices for the assessment of structural health state. The feasibility and capability of the approach is demonstrated through numerical studies of a proposed structure with six damage scenarios. It is concluded that the modal strain energy method is capable of application to multiple-girder composite bridges, as evidenced through the example treated in this chapter.

Negative mood regulation expectancies, frontal lobe related behaviors and alcohol use

Negative mood regulation (NMR) expectancies have been linked to substance problems in previous research, but the neurobiological correlates of NMR are unknown. In the present study, NMR was examined in relation to self-report indices of frontal lobe functioning, mood and alcohol use in 166 volunteers of both genders who ranged in age from 17 to 43 years. Contrary to expectations based on previous findings in addicts and problem drinkers, scores on the NMR scale did not differ between Low Risk and High Risk drinkers as defined by the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT). However, NMR scores were significantly negatively correlated with all three indices of frontal lobe dysfunction on the Frontal Systems Behavior Scale (FrSBe) Self-Rating Form as well as with all three indices of negative mood on the Depression Anxiety Stress Scales (DASS), which in turn were all positively correlated with FrSBe. Path analyses indicated that NMR partially mediated the direct effects of frontal lobe dysfunction (as indexed by FrSBe) on DASS Stress and DASS Depression. Further, the High Risk drinkers scored significantly higher on the Disinhibition and Executive Dysfunction indices of the FrSBe than did Low Risk drinkers. Results are consistent with the notion that NMR is a frontal lobe function.

Forecasting time-varying value-at-risk

In this thesis we are interested in financial risk and the instrument we want to use is Value-at-Risk (VaR). VaR is the maximum loss over a given period of time at a given confidence level. Many definitions of VaR exist and some will be introduced throughout this thesis. There two main ways to measure risk and VaR: through volatility and through percentiles. Large volatility in financial returns implies greater probability of large losses, but also larger probability of large profits. Percentiles describe tail behaviour. The estimation of VaR is a complex task. It is important to know the main characteristics of financial data to choose the best model. The existing literature is very wide, maybe controversial, but helpful in drawing a picture of the problem. It is commonly recognised that financial data are characterised by heavy tails, time-varying volatility, asymmetric response to bad and good news, and skewness. Ignoring any of these features can lead to underestimating VaR with a possible ultimate consequence being the default of the protagonist (firm, bank or investor). In recent years, skewness has attracted special attention. An open problem is the detection and modelling of time-varying skewness. Is skewness constant or there is some significant variability which in turn can affect the estimation of VaR? This thesis aims to answer this question and to open the way to a new approach to model simultaneously time-varying volatility (conditional variance) and skewness. The new tools are modifications of the Generalised Lambda Distributions (GLDs). They are four-parameter distributions, which allow the first four moments to be modelled nearly independently: in particular we are interested in what we will call para-moments, i.e., mean, variance, skewness and kurtosis. The GLDs will be used in two different ways. Firstly, semi-parametrically, we consider a moving window to estimate the parameters and calculate the percentiles of the GLDs. Secondly, parametrically, we attempt to extend the GLDs to include time-varying dependence in the parameters. We used the local linear regression to estimate semi-parametrically conditional mean and conditional variance. The method is not efficient enough to capture all the dependence structure in the three indices —ASX 200, S&P 500 and FT 30—, however it provides an idea of the DGP underlying the process and helps choosing a good technique to model the data. We find that GLDs suggest that moments up to the fourth order do not always exist, there existence appears to vary over time. This is a very important finding, considering that past papers (see for example Bali et al., 2008; Hashmi and Tay, 2007; Lanne and Pentti, 2007) modelled time-varying skewness, implicitly assuming the existence of the third moment. However, the GLDs suggest that mean, variance, skewness and in general the conditional distribution vary over time, as already suggested by the existing literature. The GLDs give good results in estimating VaR on three real indices, ASX 200, S&P 500 and FT 30, with results very similar to the results provided by historical simulation.

Modeling multivariate autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity with the double smooth transition conditional correlation GARCH Model

In this paper, we propose a multivariate GARCH model with a time-varying conditional correlation structure. The new double smooth transition conditional correlation (DSTCC) GARCH model extends the smooth transition conditional correlation (STCC) GARCH model of Silvennoinen and Teräsvirta (2005) by including another variable according to which the correlations change smoothly between states of constant correlations. A Lagrange multiplier test is derived to test the constancy of correlations against the DSTCC-GARCH model, and another one to test for another transition in the STCC-GARCH framework. In addition, other specification tests, with the aim of aiding the model building procedure, are considered. Analytical expressions for the test statistics and the required derivatives are provided. Applying the model to the stock and bond futures data, we discover that the correlation pattern between them has dramatically changed around the turn of the century. The model is also applied to a selection of world stock indices, and we find evidence for an increasing degree of integration in the capital markets.

Are organ donation communication decisions reasoned or reactive? A test of the utility of an augmented Theory of Planned Behaviour with the Prototype/Willingness Model

Objectives: To explore whether people's organ donation consent decisions occur via a reasoned and/or social reaction pathway. --------- Design: We examined prospectively students' and community members' decisions to register consent on a donor register and discuss organ donation wishes with family. --------- Method: Participants completed items assessing theory of planned behaviour (TPB; attitude, subjective norm, perceived behavioural control (PBC)), prototype/willingness model (PWM; donor prototype favourability/similarity, past behaviour), and proposed additional influences (moral norm, self-identity, recipient prototypes) for registering (N=339) and discussing (N=315) intentions/willingness. Participants self-reported their registering (N=177) and discussing (N=166) behaviour 1 month later. The utility of the (1) TPB, (2) PWM, (3) augmented TPB with PWM, and (4) augmented TPB with PWM and extensions was tested using structural equation modelling for registering and discussing intentions/willingness, and logistic regression for behaviour. --------- Results: While the TPB proved a more parsimonious model, fit indices suggested that the other proposed models offered viable options, explaining greater variance in communication intentions/willingness. The TPB, augmented TPB with PWM, and extended augmented TPB with PWM best explained registering and discussing decisions. The proposed and revised PWM also proved an adequate fit for discussing decisions. Respondents with stronger intentions (and PBC for registering) had a higher likelihood of registering and discussing. --------- Conclusions: People's decisions to communicate donation wishes may be better explained via a reasoned pathway (especially for registering); however, discussing involves more reactive elements. The role of moral norm, self-identity, and prototypes as influences predicting communication decisions were highlighted also.

A new multilevel converter configuration for high power and high quality applications

The Queensland University of Technology (QUT) allows the presentation of theses for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the format of published or submitted papers, where such papers have been published, accepted or submitted during the period of candidature. This thesis is composed of ten published /submitted papers and book chapters of which nine have been published and one is under review. This project is financially supported by an Australian Research Council (ARC) Discovery Grant with the aim of investigating multilevel topologies for high quality and high power applications, with specific emphasis on renewable energy systems. The rapid evolution of renewable energy within the last several years has resulted in the design of efficient power converters suitable for medium and high-power applications such as wind turbine and photovoltaic (PV) systems. Today, the industrial trend is moving away from heavy and bulky passive components to power converter systems that use more and more semiconductor elements controlled by powerful processor systems. However, it is hard to connect the traditional converters to the high and medium voltage grids, as a single power switch cannot stand at high voltage. For these reasons, a new family of multilevel inverters has appeared as a solution for working with higher voltage levels. Besides this important feature, multilevel converters have the capability to generate stepped waveforms. Consequently, in comparison with conventional two-level inverters, they present lower switching losses, lower voltage stress across loads, lower electromagnetic interference (EMI) and higher quality output waveforms. These properties enable the connection of renewable energy sources directly to the grid without using expensive, bulky, heavy line transformers. Additionally, they minimize the size of the passive filter and increase the durability of electrical devices. However, multilevel converters have only been utilised in very particular applications, mainly due to the structural limitations, high cost and complexity of the multilevel converter system and control. New developments in the fields of power semiconductor switches and processors will favor the multilevel converters for many other fields of application. The main application for the multilevel converter presented in this work is the front-end power converter in renewable energy systems. Diode-clamped and cascade converters are the most common type of multilevel converters widely used in different renewable energy system applications. However, some drawbacks – such as capacitor voltage imbalance, number of components, and complexity of the control system – still exist, and these are investigated in the framework of this thesis. Various simulations using software simulation tools are undertaken and are used to study different cases. The feasibility of the developments is underlined with a series of experimental results. This thesis is divided into two main sections. The first section focuses on solving the capacitor voltage imbalance for a wide range of applications, and on decreasing the complexity of the control strategy on the inverter side. The idea of using sharing switches at the output structure of the DC-DC front-end converters is proposed to balance the series DC link capacitors. A new family of multioutput DC-DC converters is proposed for renewable energy systems connected to the DC link voltage of diode-clamped converters. The main objective of this type of converter is the sharing of the total output voltage into several series voltage levels using sharing switches. This solves the problems associated with capacitor voltage imbalance in diode-clamped multilevel converters. These converters adjust the variable and unregulated DC voltage generated by renewable energy systems (such as PV) to the desirable series multiple voltage levels at the inverter DC side. A multi-output boost (MOB) converter, with one inductor and series output voltage, is presented. This converter is suitable for renewable energy systems based on diode-clamped converters because it boosts the low output voltage and provides the series capacitor at the output side. A simple control strategy using cross voltage control with internal current loop is presented to obtain the desired voltage levels at the output voltage. The proposed topology and control strategy are validated by simulation and hardware results. Using the idea of voltage sharing switches, the circuit structure of different topologies of multi-output DC-DC converters – or multi-output voltage sharing (MOVS) converters – have been proposed. In order to verify the feasibility of this topology and its application, steady state and dynamic analyses have been carried out. Simulation and experiments using the proposed control strategy have verified the mathematical analysis. The second part of this thesis addresses the second problem of multilevel converters: the need to improve their quality with minimum cost and complexity. This is related to utilising asymmetrical multilevel topologies instead of conventional multilevel converters; this can increase the quality of output waveforms with a minimum number of components. It also allows for a reduction in the cost and complexity of systems while maintaining the same output quality, or for an increase in the quality while maintaining the same cost and complexity. Therefore, the asymmetrical configuration for two common types of multilevel converters – diode-clamped and cascade converters – is investigated. Also, as well as addressing the maximisation of the output voltage resolution, some technical issues – such as adjacent switching vectors – should be taken into account in asymmetrical multilevel configurations to keep the total harmonic distortion (THD) and switching losses to a minimum. Thus, the asymmetrical diode-clamped converter is proposed. An appropriate asymmetrical DC link arrangement is presented for four-level diode-clamped converters by keeping adjacent switching vectors. In this way, five-level inverter performance is achieved for the same level of complexity of the four-level inverter. Dealing with the capacitor voltage imbalance problem in asymmetrical diodeclamped converters has inspired the proposal for two different DC-DC topologies with a suitable control strategy. A Triple-Output Boost (TOB) converter and a Boost 3-Output Voltage Sharing (Boost-3OVS) converter connected to the four-level diode-clamped converter are proposed to arrange the proposed asymmetrical DC link for the high modulation indices and unity power factor. Cascade converters have shown their abilities and strengths in medium and high power applications. Using asymmetrical H-bridge inverters, more voltage levels can be generated in output voltage with the same number of components as the symmetrical converters. The concept of cascading multilevel H-bridge cells is used to propose a fifteen-level cascade inverter using a four-level H-bridge symmetrical diode-clamped converter, cascaded with classical two-level Hbridge inverters. A DC voltage ratio of cells is presented to obtain maximum voltage levels on output voltage, with adjacent switching vectors between all possible voltage levels; this can minimize the switching losses. This structure can save five isolated DC sources and twelve switches in comparison to conventional cascade converters with series two-level H bridge inverters. To increase the quality in presented hybrid topology with minimum number of components, a new cascade inverter is verified by cascading an asymmetrical four-level H-bridge diode-clamped inverter. An inverter with nineteen-level performance was achieved. This synthesizes more voltage levels with lower voltage and current THD, rather than using a symmetrical diode-clamped inverter with the same configuration and equivalent number of power components. Two different predictive current control methods for the switching states selection are proposed to minimise either losses or THD of voltage in hybrid converters. High voltage spikes at switching time in experimental results and investigation of a diode-clamped inverter structure raised another problem associated with high-level high voltage multilevel converters. Power switching components with fast switching, combined with hard switched-converters, produce high di/dt during turn off time. Thus, stray inductance of interconnections becomes an important issue and raises overvoltage and EMI issues correlated to the number of components. Planar busbar is a good candidate to reduce interconnection inductance in high power inverters compared with cables. The effect of different transient current loops on busbar physical structure of the high-voltage highlevel diode-clamped converters is highlighted. Design considerations of proper planar busbar are also presented to optimise the overall design of diode-clamped converters.

Spectral coding methods for speech compression and speaker identification

This thesis investigates aspects of encoding the speech spectrum at low bit rates, with extensions to the effect of such coding on automatic speaker identification. Vector quantization (VQ) is a technique for jointly quantizing a block of samples at once, in order to reduce the bit rate of a coding system. The major drawback in using VQ is the complexity of the encoder. Recent research has indicated the potential applicability of the VQ method to speech when product code vector quantization (PCVQ) techniques are utilized. The focus of this research is the efficient representation, calculation and utilization of the speech model as stored in the PCVQ codebook. In this thesis, several VQ approaches are evaluated, and the efficacy of two training algorithms is compared experimentally. It is then shown that these productcode vector quantization algorithms may be augmented with lossless compression algorithms, thus yielding an improved overall compression rate. An approach using a statistical model for the vector codebook indices for subsequent lossless compression is introduced. This coupling of lossy compression and lossless compression enables further compression gain. It is demonstrated that this approach is able to reduce the bit rate requirement from the current 24 bits per 20 millisecond frame to below 20, using a standard spectral distortion metric for comparison. Several fast-search VQ methods for use in speech spectrum coding have been evaluated. The usefulness of fast-search algorithms is highly dependent upon the source characteristics and, although previous research has been undertaken for coding of images using VQ codebooks trained with the source samples directly, the product-code structured codebooks for speech spectrum quantization place new constraints on the search methodology. The second major focus of the research is an investigation of the effect of lowrate spectral compression methods on the task of automatic speaker identification. The motivation for this aspect of the research arose from a need to simultaneously preserve the speech quality and intelligibility and to provide for machine-based automatic speaker recognition using the compressed speech. This is important because there are several emerging applications of speaker identification where compressed speech is involved. Examples include mobile communications where the speech has been highly compressed, or where a database of speech material has been assembled and stored in compressed form. Although these two application areas have the same objective - that of maximizing the identification rate - the starting points are quite different. On the one hand, the speech material used for training the identification algorithm may or may not be available in compressed form. On the other hand, the new test material on which identification is to be based may only be available in compressed form. Using the spectral parameters which have been stored in compressed form, two main classes of speaker identification algorithm are examined. Some studies have been conducted in the past on bandwidth-limited speaker identification, but the use of short-term spectral compression deserves separate investigation. Combining the major aspects of the research, some important design guidelines for the construction of an identification model when based on the use of compressed speech are put forward.

Quantitative evaluation of route allocation solutions at large-scale passenger stations

Routing trains within passenger stations in major cities is a common scheduling problem for railway operation. Various studies have been undertaken to derive and formulate solutions to this route allocation problem (RAP) which is particularly evident in mainland China nowadays because of the growing traffic demand and limited station capacity. A reasonable solution must be selected from a set of available RAP solutions attained in the planning stage to facilitate station operation. The selection is however based on the experience of the operators only and objective evaluation of the solutions is rarely addressed. In order to maximise the utilisation of station capacity while maintaining service quality and allowing for service disturbance, quantitative evaluation of RAP solutions is highly desirable. In this study, quantitative evaluation of RAP solutions is proposed and it is enabled by a set of indices covering infrastructure utilisation, buffer times and delay propagation. The proposed evaluation is carried out on a number of RAP solutions at a real-life busy railway station in mainland China and the results highlight the effectiveness of the indices in pinpointing the strengths and weaknesses of the solutions. This study provides the necessary platform to improve the RAP solution in planning and to allow train re-routing upon service disturbances.

Markov modelling of the IEEE 802.11 DCF for real-time applications with periodic traffic

Popular wireless network standards, such as IEEE 802.11/15/16, are increasingly adopted in real-time control systems. However, they are not designed for real-time applications. Therefore, the performance of such wireless networks needs to be carefully evaluated before the systems are implemented and deployed. While efforts have been made to model general wireless networks with completely random traffic generation, there is a lack of theoretical investigations into the modelling of wireless networks with periodic real-time traffic. Considering the widely used IEEE 802.11 standard, with the focus on its distributed coordination function (DCF), for soft-real-time control applications, this paper develops an analytical Markov model to quantitatively evaluate the network quality-of-service (QoS) performance in periodic real-time traffic environments. Performance indices to be evaluated include throughput capacity, transmission delay and packet loss ratio, which are crucial for real-time QoS guarantee in real-time control applications. They are derived under the critical real-time traffic condition, which is formally defined in this paper to characterize the marginal satisfaction of real-time performance constraints.

Performance analysis of IEEE 802.11 DCF based WNCS networks

Wireless network technologies, such as IEEE 802.11 based wireless local area networks (WLANs), have been adopted in wireless networked control systems (WNCS) for real-time applications. Distributed real-time control requires satisfaction of (soft) real-time performance from the underlying networks for delivery of real-time traffic. However, IEEE 802.11 networks are not designed for WNCS applications. They neither inherently provide quality-of-service (QoS) support, nor explicitly consider the characteristics of the real-time traffic on networked control systems (NCS), i.e., periodic round-trip traffic. Therefore, the adoption of 802.11 networks in real-time WNCSs causes challenging problems for network design and performance analysis. Theoretical methodologies are yet to be developed for computing the best achievable WNCS network performance under the constraints of real-time control requirements. Focusing on IEEE 802.11 distributed coordination function (DCF) based WNCSs, this paper analyses several important NCS network performance indices, such as throughput capacity, round trip time and packet loss ratio under the periodic round trip traffic pattern, a unique feature of typical NCSs. Considering periodic round trip traffic, an analytical model based on Markov chain theory is developed for deriving these performance indices under a critical real-time traffic condition, at which the real-time performance constraints are marginally satisfied. Case studies are also carried out to validate the theoretical development.