Nouveaux indices de suppression de la lipolyse par l'insuline déterminés lors de l'hyperglycémie provoquée par voie orale : comparaisons avec le clamp euglycémique-hyperinsulinémique et les paramètres métaboliques chez les femmes

Résumé : Une dysrégulation de la lipolyse des tissus adipeux peut conduire à une surexposition des tissus non-adipeux aux acides gras non-estérifiés (AGNE), qui peut mener à un certain degré de lipotoxicité dans ces tissus. La lipotoxicité constitue, par ailleurs, l’une des causes majeures du développement de la résistance à l’insuline et du diabète de type 2. En plus de ses fonctions glucorégulatrices, l’insuline a pour fonction d’inhiber la lipolyse et donc de diminuer les niveaux d’AGNE en circulation, prévenant ainsi la lipotoxicité. Il n’y a pas d’étalon d’or pour mesurer la sensibilité de la lipolyse à l’insuline. Le clamp euglycémique hyperinsulinémique constitue la méthode étalon d’or pour évaluer la sensibilité du glucose à l’insuline mais il est aussi utilisé pour mesurer la suppression de la lipolyse par l’insuline. Par contre, cette méthode est couteuse et laborieuse, et ne peut pas s’appliquer à de grandes populations. Il existe aussi des indices pour estimer la fonction antilipolytique de l’insuline dérivés de l’hyperglycémie provoquée par voie orale (HGPO), un test moins dispendieux et plus simple à effectuer à grande échelle. Cette étude vise donc à : 1) Étudier la relation entre les indices de suppressibilité des AGNE par l’insuline dérivés du clamp et ceux dérivés de l’HGPO; et 2) Déterminer laquelle de ces mesures corrèle le mieux avec les facteurs connus comme étant reliés à la dysfonction adipeuse : paramètres anthropométriques et indices de dysfonction métabolique. Les résultats montrent que dans le groupe de sujets étudiés (n=29 femmes, 15 témoins saines et 14 femmes avec résistance à l’insuline car atteintes du syndrome des ovaires polykystiques), certains indices de sensibilité à l’insuline pour la lipolyse dérivés de l’HGPO corrèlent bien avec ceux dérivés du clamp euglycémique hyperinsulinémique. Parmi ces indices, celui qui corrèle le mieux avec les indices du clamp et les paramètres anthropométriques et de dysfonction adipeuse est le T50[indice inférieur AGNE] (temps nécessaire pour diminuer de 50% le taux de base – à jeun – des AGNE). Nos résultats suggèrent donc que l’HGPO, facile à réaliser, peut être utilisée pour évaluer la sensibilité de la lipolyse à l’insuline. Nous pensons que la lipo-résistance à l’insuline peut être facilement quantifiée en clinique humaine.

Immune function, gene expression, blood indices and performance in transition dairy cows affected by diet and inflammation

The transition period is associated with the peak incidence of production problems, metabolic disorders and infectious diseases in dairy cows (Drackley, 1999). During this time the cow’s immune system seems to be weakened; it is apparent that metabolic challenges associated with the onset of lactation are factors capable of affecting immune function. However, the reasons for this state are not entirely clear (Goff, 2006). The negative energy balance associated with parturition leads to extensive mobilization of fatty acids stored in adipose tissue, thus, causing marked elevations in blood non-esterified fatty acids (NEFA) and B-hydroxybutyrate (BHBA) concentrations (Drackley et al., 2001). Prepartal level of dietary energy can potentially affect adipose tissue deposition and, thus, the amount of NEFA released into blood and available for metabolism in liver (Drackley et al., 2005). The current feeding practices for pregnant non-lactating cows has been called into question because increasing amounts of moderate-to-high energy diets (i.e. those more similar to lactation diets in the content of energy) during the last 3 wk postpartum have largely failed to overcome peripartal health problems, excessive body condition loss after calving, or declining fertility (Beever, 2006). Current prepartal feeding practices can lead to elevated intakes of energy, which can increase fat deposition in the viscera and upon parturition lead to compromised liver metabolism (Beever, 2006, Drackley et al., 2005). Our general hypothesis was that overfeeding dietary energy during the dry period, accompanied by the metabolic challenges associated with the onset of lactation would render the cow’s immune function less responsive early postpartum. The chapters in this dissertation evaluated neutrophil function, metabolic and inflammation indices and gene expression affected by the plane of dietary energy prepartum and an early post-partum inflammatory challenge in dairy cows. The diet effect in this experiment was transcendental during the transition period and potentially during the entire lactation. Changes in energy balance were observed and provided a good model to study the challenges associated with the onset of lactation. Overall the LPS model provided a consistent response representing an inflammation incident; however the changes in metabolic indices were sudden and hard to detect in most of the cases during the days following the challenge. In general overfeeding dietary energy during the dry period resulted in a less responsive immune function during the early postpartum. In other words, controlling the dietary energy prepartum has more benefits for the dairy cow during transition.

Effect of temperature on genomic and some biological indices during embryonic and larval development of Caspian trout Salmo trutta caspius Kessler, 1877

Since 1966 especially recent decade, Caspian trout (Salmo trutta caspius Kessler, 1877) considered as a strategic endemic species for Caspian Sea fisheries resources also coldwater aquaculture in Iran. Nowadays habitat condition effects on this subspecies during life stages, artificial breeding and incubation period noticed by research and execution sessions of fisheries in Iran. Incubation duration of Caspian trout from artificial fertilization followed by green egg and eyed egg, hatching and yolk sac absorption identified as most sensitive stages for fish and any pollution, stress and deviation by natural life conditions of embryo up to larvae could provide possible mortalities and observable or hidden alterations. Among all vital factors for Caspian trout welfare even in conservation plans and stocks rehabilitation programs or recent attempts for domestication of this fish for introduction to cold water aquaculture industry, water temperature as the most important physical factor which might conserve or induce stress to rearing environment condition is not considered yet. In hatcheries activities, the temperature for incubation and rearing Caspian trout eggs is determining by available water temperature and wide range of temperatures in governmental or private farms is using depend on the water resources availability. Also global climate change consideration and increase temperature trend accompany with group of physical and chemical factors provided by fish farm discharges and other source points entered to the migration pathway of Caspian trout in spawning season were not investigated before. Natural spawning migration pathway is upstream of Caspian tout south and south west rivers especially in Cheshmehkileh upstream in Tonekabon, Iran directed this research focus on the mentioned location. For simulation of natural spawning bed for Caspian trout, water supplied from the upstream of Daryasar branch as headwater of Cheshmehkileh River which provided REDD water condition for in vitro incubation. Green eggs treatments of wild and F1 cultured brooders both 3+ were incubated. Incubation implemented in dark, constant temperature (4, 8, 12 degree centigrade) and DO–pH–temperature digital monitoring in 3 recycling incubators ended to yolk sac absorption and entering larval stage. Hatching success, possible genome alterations by HSP70 gene expression and comet assay implemented as diagnostic tools in 3 life stages of eyed egg– Alevin and Larvae. Numbers and diameters of larvae white fiber muscles measured by histology experiment and Hematoxylin–eosine staining. Results stated significant effect of incubation temperature on hatching success, genome and white fiber muscles of wild and F1 samples. Hatching success measured as 31% and 38% for cultured and wild cold treatments, 79% and 91% for normal and 64% and 73% for warm cultured and wild treatments respectively. Considerable mortality occurred for cold treatment and 8 degree centigrade stated the best thermal condition in normal incubator according to hatching success in wild Caspian trout samples.

MRI indices of functional recovery following intracerebral implantation of a human neural stem cell line in a pre-clinical model of ischaemic stroke

Stem cell therapy for ischaemic stroke is an emerging field in light of an increasing number of patients surviving with permanent disability. Several allogenic and autologous cells types are now in clinical trials with preliminary evidence of safety. Some clinical studies have reported functional improvements in some patients. After initial safety evaluation in a Phase 1 study, the conditionally immortalised human neural stem cell line CTX0E03 is currently in a Phase 2 clinical trial (PISCES-II). Previous pre-clinical studies conducted by ReNeuron Ltd, showed evidence of functional recovery in the Bilateral Asymmetry test up to 6 weeks following transplantation into rodent brain, 4 weeks after middle cerebral artery occlusion. Resting-state fMRI is increasingly used to investigate brain function in health and disease, and may also act as a predictor of recovery due to known network changes in the post-stroke recovery period. Resting-state methods have also been applied to non-human primates and rodents which have been found to have analogous resting-state networks to humans. The sensorimotor resting-state network of rodents is impaired following experimental focal ischaemia of the middle cerebral artery territory. However, the effects of stem cell implantation on brain functional networks has not previously been investigated. Prior studies assessed sensorimotor function following sub-cortical implantation of CTX0E03 cells in the rodent post-stroke brain but with no MRI assessments of functional improvements. This thesis presents research on the effect of sub-cortical implantation of CTX0E03 cells on the resting- state sensorimotor network and sensorimotor deficits in the rat following experimental stroke, using protocols based on previous work with this cell line. The work in this thesis identified functional tests of appropriate sensitivity for long-term dysfunction suitable for this laboratory, and investigated non-invasive monitoring of physiological variables required to optimize BOLD signal stability within a high-field MRI scanner. Following experimental stroke, rats demonstrated expected sensorimotor dysfunction and changes in the resting-state sensorimotor network. CTX0E03 cells did not improve post-stroke functional outcome (compared to previous studies) and with no changes in resting-state sensorimotor network activity. However, in control animals, we observed changes in functional networks due to the stereotaxic procedure. This illustrates the sensitivity of resting-state fMRI to stereotaxic procedures. We hypothesise that the damage caused by cell or vehicle implantation may have prevented functional and network recovery which has not been previously identified due to the application of different functional tests. The findings in this thesis represent one of few pre-clinical studies in resting-state fMRI network changes post-stroke and the only to date applying this technique to evaluate functional outcomes following a clinically applicable human neural stem cell treatment for ischaemic stroke. It was found that injury caused by stereotaxic injection should be taken into account when assessing the effectiveness of treatment.

Mécanismes psychophysiques et neuronaux de la compensation dynamique de multiples champs de force : facilitation et anticipation liée à des indices de couleur

Dans cette thèse, nous abordons le contrôle moteur du mouvement du coude à travers deux approches expérimentales : une première étude psychophysique a été effectuée chez les sujets humains, et une seconde implique des enregistrements neurophysiologiques chez le singe. Nous avons recensé plusieurs aspects non résolus jusqu’à présent dans l’apprentissage moteur, particulièrement concernant l’interférence survenant lors de l’adaptation à deux ou plusieurs champs de force anti-corrélés. Nous avons conçu un paradigme où des stimuli de couleur aident les sujets à prédire la nature du champ de force externe actuel avant qu’ils ne l’expérimentent physiquement durant des mouvements d’atteinte. Ces connaissances contextuelles faciliteraient l’adaptation à des champs de forces en diminuant l’interférence. Selon le modèle computationnel de l’apprentissage moteur MOSAIC (MOdular Selection And Identification model for Control), les stimuli de couleur aident les sujets à former « un modèle interne » de chaque champ de forces, à s’en rappeler et à faire la transition entre deux champs de force différents, sans interférence. Dans l’expérience psychophysique, quatre groupes de sujets humains ont exécuté des mouvements de flexion/extension du coude contre deux champs de forces. Chaque force visqueuse était associée à une couleur de l’écran de l’ordinateur et les deux forces étaient anti-corrélées : une force résistante (Vr) a été associée à la couleur rouge de l’écran et l’autre, assistante (Va), à la couleur verte de l’écran. Les deux premiers groupes de sujets étaient des groupes témoins : la couleur de l’écran changeait à chaque bloc de 4 essais, tandis que le champ de force ne changeait pas. Les sujets du groupe témoin Va ne rencontraient que la force assistante Va et les sujets du groupe témoin Vr performaient leurs mouvements uniquement contre une force résistante Vr. Ainsi, dans ces deux groupes témoins, les stimuli de couleur n’étaient pas pertinents pour adapter le mouvement et les sujets ne s’adaptaient qu’à une seule force (Va ou Vr). Dans les deux groupes expérimentaux, cependant, les sujets expérimentaient deux champs de forces différents dans les différents blocs d’essais (4 par bloc), associés à ces couleurs. Dans le premier groupe expérimental (groupe « indice certain », IC), la relation entre le champ de force et le stimulus (couleur de l’écran) était constante. La couleur rouge signalait toujours la force Vr tandis que la force Va était signalée par la couleur verte. L’adaptation aux deux forces anti-corrélées pour le groupe IC s’est avérée significative au cours des 10 jours d’entraînement et leurs mouvements étaient presque aussi bien ajustés que ceux des deux groupes témoins qui n’avaient expérimenté qu’une seule des deux forces. De plus, les sujets du groupe IC ont rapidement démontré des changements adaptatifs prédictifs dans leurs sorties motrices à chaque changement de couleur de l’écran, et ceci même durant leur première journée d’entraînement. Ceci démontre qu’ils pouvaient utiliser les stimuli de couleur afin de se rappeler de la commande motrice adéquate. Dans le deuxième groupe expérimental, la couleur de l’écran changeait régulièrement de vert à rouge à chaque transition de blocs d’essais, mais le changement des champs de forces était randomisé par rapport aux changements de couleur (groupe « indice-incertain », II). Ces sujets ont pris plus de temps à s’adapter aux champs de forces que les 3 autres groupes et ne pouvaient pas utiliser les stimuli de couleurs, qui n’étaient pas fiables puisque non systématiquement reliés aux champs de forces, pour faire des changements prédictifs dans leurs sorties motrices. Toutefois, tous les sujets de ce groupe ont développé une stratégie ingénieuse leur permettant d’émettre une réponse motrice « par défaut » afin de palper ou de sentir le type de la force qu’ils allaient rencontrer dans le premier essai de chaque bloc, à chaque changement de couleur. En effet, ils utilisaient la rétroaction proprioceptive liée à la nature du champ de force afin de prédire la sortie motrice appropriée pour les essais qui suivent, jusqu’au prochain changement de couleur d’écran qui signifiait la possibilité de changement de force. Cette stratégie était efficace puisque la force demeurait la même dans chaque bloc, pendant lequel la couleur de l’écran restait inchangée. Cette étude a démontré que les sujets du groupe II étaient capables d’utiliser les stimuli de couleur pour extraire des informations implicites et explicites nécessaires à la réalisation des mouvements, et qu’ils pouvaient utiliser ces informations pour diminuer l’interférence lors de l’adaptation aux forces anti-corrélées. Les résultats de cette première étude nous ont encouragés à étudier les mécanismes permettant aux sujets de se rappeler d’habiletés motrices multiples jumelées à des stimuli contextuels de couleur. Dans le cadre de notre deuxième étude, nos expériences ont été effectuées au niveau neuronal chez le singe. Notre but était alors d’élucider à quel point les neurones du cortex moteur primaire (M1) peuvent contribuer à la compensation d’un large éventail de différentes forces externes durant un mouvement de flexion/extension du coude. Par cette étude, nous avons testé l’hypothèse liée au modèle MOSAIC, selon laquelle il existe plusieurs modules contrôleurs dans le cervelet qui peuvent prédire chaque contexte et produire un signal de sortie motrice approprié pour un nombre restreint de conditions. Selon ce modèle, les neurones de M1 recevraient des entrées de la part de plusieurs contrôleurs cérébelleux spécialisés et montreraient ensuite une modulation appropriée de la réponse pour une large variété de conditions. Nous avons entraîné deux singes à adapter leurs mouvements de flexion/extension du coude dans le cadre de 5 champs de force différents : un champ nul ne présentant aucune perturbation, deux forces visqueuses anti-corrélées (assistante et résistante) qui dépendaient de la vitesse du mouvement et qui ressemblaient à celles utilisées dans notre étude psychophysique chez l’homme, une force élastique résistante qui dépendait de la position de l’articulation du coude et, finalement, un champ viscoélastique comportant une sommation linéaire de la force élastique et de la force visqueuse. Chaque champ de force était couplé à une couleur d’écran de l’ordinateur, donc nous avions un total de 5 couleurs différentes associées chacune à un champ de force (relation fixe). Les singes étaient bien adaptés aux 5 conditions de champs de forces et utilisaient les stimuli contextuels de couleur pour se rappeler de la sortie motrice appropriée au contexte de forces associé à chaque couleur, prédisant ainsi leur sortie motrice avant de sentir les effets du champ de force. Les enregistrements d’EMG ont permis d’éliminer la possibilité de co-contractions sous-tendant ces adaptations, étant donné que le patron des EMG était approprié pour compenser chaque condition de champ de force. En parallèle, les neurones de M1 ont montré des changements systématiques dans leurs activités, sur le plan unitaire et populationnel, dans chaque condition de champ de force, signalant les changements requis dans la direction, l’amplitude et le décours temporel de la sortie de force musculaire nécessaire pour compenser les 5 conditions de champs de force. Les changements dans le patron de réponse pour chaque champ de force étaient assez cohérents entre les divers neurones de M1, ce qui suggère que la plupart des neurones de M1 contribuent à la compensation de toutes les conditions de champs de force, conformément aux prédictions du modèle MOSAIC. Aussi, cette modulation de l’activité neuronale ne supporte pas l’hypothèse d’une organisation fortement modulaire de M1.

Spatial Assessment of Indices for Characterizing the Erosive Force of Rainfall in El Salvador Republic

Soil erosion data in El Salvador Republic are scarce and there is no rainfall erosivity map for this region. Considering that rainfall erosivity is an important guide for planning soil erosion control practices, a spatial assessment of indices for characterizing the erosive force of rainfall in El Salvador Republic was carried out. Using pluviometric records from 25 weather stations, we applied two methods: erosivity index equation and the Fournier index. In all study area, the rainiest period is from May to November. Annual values of erosivity index ranged from 7,196 to 17,856 MJ mm ha(-1) h(-1) year(-1) and the Fournier index ranged from 52.9 to 110.0 mm. The erosivity map showed that the study area can be broadly divided into three major erosion risk zones, and the Fournier index map was divided into four zones. Both methods revealed that the erosive force is severe in all study area and presented significant spatial correlation with each other. The erosive force in the country is concentrated mainly from May to November.

A pilot study to determine the normal haematological indices for young Malawian adults in Blantyre, Malawi

Aim To determine the distribution of haematological parameters in healthy individuals residing in Blantyre, Malawi. We also examined the effect of sociodemographic and nutritional factors on the haematological variables. Methods We conducted a proof-of-concept cross-sectional study, involving 105 healthy blood donors at Malawi Blood Transfusion Service in Blantyre. Eligible participants were HIV-negative males and females, aged 19 to 35 years, who did not have any evidence of acute or chronic illness, or bloodborne infection. We performed the haematological tests at the Malawi-Liverpool Wellcome Trust laboratory in Blantyre, and the screening tests at Malawi Blood Transfusion Service laboratories. Results Out of 170 consenting healthy volunteers, haematological results were available for 105 participants. The proportions of results which were below the lower limit of the manufacturer’s reference ranges were 35.2% (37/105) for haemoglobin, 15.2% (16/105) for neutrophils, 23.8% (25/105) for eosinophils, and 88.6 % (93/105) for basophils. The proportions of results that were above the upper limit of the manufacturer’s reference ranges were 9.5% (10/105) for platelets and 12.4% (13/105) for monocytes. We also observed that the mean leucocyte and basophil counts were significantly higher in males than females (p = 0.042 and p = 0.015, respectively). There were no statistically significant differences in haematological results observed among different ethnic, age, and body mass index groups. Conclusions Over half of otherwise healthy study participants had at least one abnormal haematological result, using previously established foreign standards. More detailed studies are needed to establish locally relevant normal ranges for different age groups and other demographic characteristics of the Malawian population. This will lead to accurate interpretation of laboratory results.

Action and perception: Neural indices of learning in infants

Early human development offers a unique perspective in investigating the potential cognitive and social implications of action and perception. Specifically, during infancy, action production and action perception undergo foundational developments. One essential component to examine developments in action processing is the analysis of others’ actions as meaningful and goal-directed. Little research, however, has examined the underlying neural systems that may be associated with emerging action and perception abilities, and infants’ learning of goal-directed actions. The current study examines the mu rhythm—a brain oscillation found in the electroencephalogram (EEG)—that has been associated with action and perception. Specifically, the present work investigates whether the mu signal is related to 9-month-olds’ learning of a novel goal-directed means-end task. The findings of this study demonstrate a relation between variations in mu rhythm activity and infants’ ability to learn a novel goal-directed means-end action task (compared to a visual pattern learning task used as a comparison task). Additionally, we examined the relations between standardized assessments of early motor competence, infants’ ability to learn a novel goal-directed task, and mu rhythm activity. We found that: 1a) mu rhythm activity during observation of a grasp uniquely predicted infants’ learning on the cane training task, 1b) mu rhythm activity during observation and execution of a grasp did not uniquely predict infants’ learning on the visual pattern learning task (comparison learning task), 2) infants’ motor competence did not predict infants’ learning on the cane training task, 3) mu rhythm activity during observation and execution was not related to infants’ measure of motor competence, and 4) mu rhythm activity did not predict infants’ learning on the cane task above and beyond infants’ motor competence. The results from this study demonstrate that mu rhythm activity is a sensitive measure to detect individual differences in infants’ action and perception abilities, specifically their learning of a novel goal-directed action.

Association of body composition indices with insulin resistance in European adolescents: the HELENA study

Background: The different body components may contribute to the development of insulin resistance and type 2 diabetes mellitus. The aim of the present study was to examine the association of fat mass and fat free mass indices with markers of insulin resistance, independently of each other and giving, at the same time, gender-specific information in a wide cohort of European adolescents. Methods: A cross-sectional study in a school setting was conducted in 925 (430 males) adolescents (14.9 ± 1.2 years). Weight, height, anthropometric, bioimpedance and blood parameters were measured. Indices for fat mass and fat free mass, and homeostatic model assessment (HOMA) were calculated. Multiple regression analyses were performed adjusting for several confounders including fat free mass and fat mass when possible. Results: Indices of fat mass were positively associated with HOMA (all p < 0.01) after adjusting for all the confounders including fat free mass indices, in both sexes. Fat free mass indices were associated with HOMA, in both males and females, after adjusting for center, pubertal status, socioeconomic status and cardiorespiratory fitness, but the associations disappear when including fat mass indices in the adjustment's model. Conclusion: Fat mass indices derived from different methods are positively associated with insulin resistance independently of several confounders including fat free mass indices. In addition, the relationship of fat free mass with insulin resistance is influenced by the amount of fat mass in European adolescents. Nevertheless, future studies should focus not only on the role of fat mass, but also on other body components such as fat free mass because its role could vary depending of the level and distribution of fat mass.

Linear optimization for ecological indices based on aggregation functions

We consider an optimization problem in ecology where our objective is to maximize biodiversity with respect to different land-use allocations. As it turns out, the main problem can be framed as learning the weights of a weighted arithmetic mean where the objective is the geometric mean of its outputs. We propose methods for approximating solutions to this and similar problems, which are non-linear by nature, using linear and bilevel techniques.

Evaluation of process capability indices of linear profiles

Purpose: In profile monitoring, which is a growing research area in the field of statistical process control, the relationship between response and explanatory variables is monitored over time. The purpose of this paper is to focus on the process capability analysis of linear profiles. Process capability indices give a quick indication of the capability of a manufacturing process. Design/methodology/approach: In this paper, the proportion of the non-conformance criteria is employed to estimate process capability index. The paper has considered the cases where specification limits is constant or is a function of explanatory variable X. Moreover, cases where both equal and random design schemes in profile data acquisition is required (as the explanatory variable) is considered. Profiles with the assumption of deterministic design points are usually used in the calibration applications. However, there are other applications where design points within a profile would be i.i.d. random variables from a given distribution. Findings: Simulation studies using simple linear profile processes for both fixed and random explanatory variable with constant and functional specification limits are considered to assess the efficacy of the proposed method. Originality/value: There are many cases in industries such as semiconductor industries where quality characteristics are in form of profiles. There is no method in the literature to analyze process capability for theses processes, however recently quite a few methods have been presented in monitoring profiles. Proposed methods provide a framework for quality engineers and production engineers to evaluate and analyze capability of the profile processes. © Emerald Group Publishing Limited.

Classifying Chinese bull and bear markets : indices and individual stocks

Purpose: This paper aims to investigate Chinese bull and bear markets. The Chinese stock market has experienced a long period of bear cycle from early 2000 until 2006, and then it fluctuated greatly until 2010. However, the cyclical behaviour of stock markets during this period is less well established. This paper aims to answer the question why the Chinese stock market experienced a long duration of bear market and what factors would have impacted this cyclical behaviour. Design/methodology/approach: By comparing the intervals of bull and bear markets between stocks and indices based on a Markov switching model, this paper examines whether different industries or A- and B-share markets could lead to different stock market cyclical behaviour and whether firm size can determine the relationship between the firm stock cycles on the market cycles. Findings: This paper finds a high degree of overlapping of bear cycles between stocks and indices and a high level of overlapping between the bear market and a fraction of stock with increasing stock prices. This leads to the conclusion that the stock performance and trading behaviour are widely diversified. Furthermore, the paper finds that the same industry may have different overlapping intervals of bull or bear cycles in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets. Firms with different sizes could have different overlapping intervals with bull or bear cycles. Originality/value: This paper fills the literature gap by establishing the cyclical behaviour of stock markets.

Applying Least Absolute Shrinkage Selection Operator and Akaike Information Criterion Analysis to Find the Best Multiple Linear Regression Models between Climate Indices and Components of Cow’s Milk

This study focuses on multiple linear regression models relating six climate indices (temperature humidity THI, environmental stress ESI, equivalent temperature index ETI, heat load HLI, modified HLI (HLI new), and respiratory rate predictor RRP) with three main components of cow’s milk (yield, fat, and protein) for cows in Iran. The least absolute shrinkage selection operator (LASSO) and the Akaike information criterion (AIC) techniques are applied to select the best model for milk predictands with the smallest number of climate predictors. Uncertainty estimation is employed by applying bootstrapping through resampling. Cross validation is used to avoid over-fitting. Climatic parameters are calculated from the NASA-MERRA global atmospheric reanalysis. Milk data for the months from April to September, 2002 to 2010 are used. The best linear regression models are found in spring between milk yield as the predictand and THI, ESI, ETI, HLI, and RRP as predictors with p-value < 0.001 and R2 (0.50, 0.49) respectively. In summer, milk yield with independent variables of THI, ETI, and ESI show the highest relation (p-value < 0.001) with R2 (0.69). For fat and protein the results are only marginal. This method is suggested for the impact studies of climate variability/change on agriculture and food science fields when short-time series or data with large uncertainty are available.

A Survey of the Relationship between Climatic Heat Stress Indices and Fundamental Milk Components Considering Uncertainty

The main purpose of this study is to assess the relationship between four bioclimatic indices for cattle (environmental stress, heat load, modified heat load, and respiratory rate predictor indices) and three main milk components (fat, protein, and milk yield) considering uncertainty. The climate parameters used to calculate the climate indices were taken from the NASA-Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (NASA-MERRA) reanalysis from 2002 to 2010. Cow milk data were considered for the same period from April to September when the cows use the natural pasture. The study is based on a linear regression analysis using correlations as a summarizing diagnostic. Bootstrapping is used to represent uncertainty information in the confidence intervals. The main results identify an interesting relationship between the milk compounds and climate indices under all climate conditions. During spring, there are reasonably high correlations between the fat and protein concentrations vs. the climate indices, whereas there are insignificant dependencies between the milk yield and climate indices. During summer, the correlation between the fat and protein concentrations with the climate indices decreased in comparison with the spring results, whereas the correlation for the milk yield increased. This methodology is suggested for studies investigating the impacts of climate variability/change on food and agriculture using short term data considering uncertainty.