An analysis of the Galveston Hurricane using the 20CR data set

The Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) is an atmospheric dataset consisting of 56 ensemble members, which covers the entire globe and reaches back to 1871. To assess the suitability of this dataset for studying past extremes, we analysed a prominent extreme event, namely the Galveston Hurricane, which made landfall in September 1900 in Texas, USA. The ensemble mean of 20CR shows a track of the pressure minimum with a small standard deviation among the 56 ensemble members in the area of the Gulf of Mexico. However, there are systematic differences between the assimilated “Best Track” from the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) and the ensemble mean track in 20CR. East of the Strait of Florida, the tracks derived from 20CR are located systematically northeast of the assimilated track while in the Gulf of Mexico, the 20CR tracks are systematically shifted to the southwest compared to the IBTrACS position. The hurricane can also be observed in the wind field, which shows a cyclonic rotation and a relatively calm zone in the centre of the hurricane. The 20CR data reproduce the pressure gradient and cyclonic wind field. Regarding the amplitude of the wind speeds, the ensemble mean values from 20CR are significantly lower than the wind speeds known from measurements.

The Samoa Hurricane, 15-16 March 1889

Analysing historical weather extremes such as the tropical cyclone in Samoa in March 1889 could add to our understanding of extreme events. However, up to now the availability of suitable data was limiting the analysis of historical extremes, particularly in remote regions. The new “Twentieth Century Reanalysis” (20CR), which provides six-hourly, three-dimensional data for the entire globe back to 1871, might provide the means to study this and other early events. While its suitability for studying historical extremes has been analysed for events in the northern extratropics (see other papers in this volume), the representation of tropical cyclones, especially in early times, remains unknown. The aim of this paper is to study to the hurricane that struck Samoa on 15-16 March 1889. We analyse the event in 20CR as well as in contemporary observations. We find that the event is not reproduced in the ensemble mean of 20CR, nor is it within the ensemble spread. We argue that this is due to the paucity of data assimilated into 20CR. A preliminary compilation of historical observations from ships for that period, in contrast, provides a relatively consistent picture of the event. This shows that more observations would be available and implies that future versions of surface-based reanalyses might profit from digitizing further observations in the tropical region.

Investigating the sensitivity of hurricane intensity and trajectory to sea surface temperatures using the regional model WRF

The influence of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on the hurricane characteristics are investigated in a set of sensitivity experiments employing the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The idealised experiments are performed for the case of Hurricane Katrina in 2005. The first set of sensitivity experiments with basin-wide changes of the SST magnitude shows that the intensity goes along with changes in the SST, i.e., an increase in SST leads to an intensification of Katrina. Additionally, the trajectory is shifted to the west (east), with increasing (decreasing) SSTs. The main reason is a strengthening of the background flow. The second set of experiments investigates the influence of Loop Current eddies idealised by localised SST anomalies. The intensity of Hurricane Katrina is enhanced with increasing SSTs close to the core of a tropical cyclone. Negative nearby SST anomalies reduce the intensity. The trajectory only changes if positive SST anomalies are located west or north of the hurricane centre. In this case the hurricane is attracted by the SST anomaly which causes an additional moisture source and increased vertical winds.

Content of prenatal care and spontaneous preterm birth: Findings from the 1988 National Maternal and Infant Health Survey

The purposes of this study were to examine (1) the relationship between selected components of the content of prenatal care and spontaneous preterm birth; and (2) the degree of comparability between maternal and caregivers' responses regarding the number of prenatal care visits, selected components of the content of prenatal care, and gestational age, based on analyses of the 1988 National Maternal and Infant Health Survey conducted by the National Centers for Health Statistics. Spontaneous preterm birth was subcategorized into very preterm and moderately preterm births, with term birth as the controls. The study population was limited to non-Hispanic Anglo- and African-American mothers. The racial differences in terms of birth outcomes were also compared.^ This study concluded that: (1) there was not a high degree of comparability (less than 80%) between maternal and prenatal care provider's responses regarding the number of prenatal care visits and the content of prenatal care; (2) there was a low degree of comparability (less than 50%) between maternal and infant's hospital of delivery responses regarding gestational age at birth; (3) there were differences in selected components of the content of prenatal care between the cases and controls, overall and stratified by ethnicity (i.e., hemoglobin/hematocrit test, weight measurement, and breast-feeding counseling), but they were confounded with missing values and associated preterm delivery bias; (4) there were differences in selected components of the content of prenatal care between Anglo- and African-American cases (i.e., vitamin/mineral supplement advice, weight measurement, smoking cessation and drug abuse counseling), but they, too, were difficult to interpret definitively due to item nonresponse and preterm delivery biases; (5) no significant predictive association between selected components of the content of prenatal care and spontaneous preterm birth was found; and (6) inadequate/intermediate prenatal care and birth out of wedlock were found to be associated with moderately preterm birth.^ Future research is needed to examine the validity of maternal and prenatal care providers' responses and identify the sources of disagreement between their responses. In addition, further studies are needed to examine the relationship between the quality of prenatal care and preterm birth. Finally, the completeness and quality of patient and provider data on the utilization and content of prenatal care needs to be strengthened in subsequent studies. ^

The relationship of maternal low birthweight and infant low birthweight among African-American women at term delivery: Findings from the 1988 National Maternal and Infant Health Survey

A cohort study study design was used to study the relationship of maternal low birthweight and infant low birthweight among African American women delivering full term infants. The cohort consisted of 3,157 mother-infant pairs drawn from the 1988 National Maternal and Infant Health Survey conducted by the National Center for Health Statistics. The objectives of the study were (1) to determine if low birthweight, African American mothers delivering term infants experienced higher rates of infant low birthweight and (2) to examine the role of selected contributory variables in the relationship of maternal low birthweight and infant low birthweight. Contributory risk factors examined included maternal marital status, maternal age, maternal education, maternal height, maternal prepregnant weight, birth order, history of a prior low birthweight delivery, timing of prenatal care, number of prenatal visits, gestational length, infant gender, and behavioral factors of smoking, alcohol, and illicit drug use during pregnancy.^ Using logistic regression analysis, risk of infant low birthweight among maternal low birthweight mothers increased after controlling for less than a high school education, less than 20 years of age, prepregnant weight less than 100 lbs, history of a prior low birthweight delivery, birth order, smoking during pregnancy, and use of alcohol and illicit drugs during pregnancy, but was not statistically significant. Loss of statistical significance was attributed to a large reduction in cases available for analysis after including illicit drug use in the model.^ This study demonstrated a consistent pattern of increased rates of infant low birthweight among low birthweight mothers. The force of history remains, hence women with this trait should be carefully monitored and advised during pregnancy to decrease risk of a low birthweight infant, in order to decrease the chain of events leading to future generations of low birthweight mothers. ^

Influence of Gilbert's syndrome on the formation of ethyl glucuronide.

A drinking experiment with participants suffering from Gilbert's syndrome was performed to study the possible influence of this glucuronidation disorder on the formation of ethyl glucuronide (EtG). Gilbert's syndrome is a rather common and, in most cases, asymptomatic congenital metabolic aberration with a prevalence of about 5 %. It is characterized by a reduction of the enzyme activity of the uridine diphosphate glucuronosyltransferase (UGT) isoform 1A1 up to 80 %. One of the glucuronidation products is EtG, which is formed in the organism following exposure to ethanol. EtG is used as a short-term marker for ethyl alcohol consumption to prove abstinence in various settings. After 2 days of abstinence from ethanol and giving a void urine sample, 30 study participants drank 0.1 L of sparkling wine (9 g ethanol). 3, 6, 12, and 24 h after drinking, urine samples were collected. 3 hours after drinking, an additional blood sample was taken, in which liver enzyme activities, ethanol, hematological parameters, and bilirubin were measured. EtG and ethyl sulfate (EtS), another short-term marker of ethanol consumption, were determined in the urine samples using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS); creatinine was measured photometrically. In all participants, EtG and EtS were detected in concentrations showing a wide range (EtG: 3 h sample 0.5-18.43 mg/L and 6 h sample 0.67-13.8 mg/L; EtS: 3 h sample 0.87-6.87 mg/L and 6 h sample 0.29-4.48 mg/L). No evidence of impaired EtG formation was found. Thus, EtG seems to be a suitable marker for ethanol consumption even in individuals with Gilbert's syndrome.

The influence of absorbed solar radiation by Saharan dust on hurricane genesis

To date, the radiative impact of dust and the Sahar an air layer (SAL) on North Atlantic hurricane activity is not yet known. According to previous studies, dust stabilizes the atmosphere due to absorption of solar radiation but thus shifts convection to regions more conducive for hurricane genesis. Here we analyze differences in hurricane genesis and frequency from ensemble sensitivity simulations with radiatively active and inactive dust in the aerosol-climate model ECHAM6-HAM. We investigate dust burden and other hurricane-related variables and determine their influence on disturbances which develop into hurricanes (developing disturbances, DDs) and those which do not (nondeveloping disturbances, NDDs). Dust and the SAL are found to potentially have both inhibiting and supporting influences on background conditions for hurricane genesis. A slight southward shift of DDs is determined when dust is active as well as a significant warming of the SAL, which leads to a strengthening of the vertical circulation associated with the SAL. The dust burden of DDs is smaller in active dust simulations compared to DDs in simulations with inactive dust, while NDDs contain more dust in active dust simulations. However, no significant influence of radiatively active dust on other variables in DDs and NDDs is found. Furthermore, no substantial change in the DD and NDD frequency due to the radiative effects of dust can be detected.