Making a match: Combining theory and evidence in policy-oriented macroeconomic modeling

A persistent question in the development of models for macroeconomic policy analysis has been the relative role of economic theory and evidence in their construction. This paper looks at some popular strategies that involve setting up a theoretical or conceptual model (CM) which is transformed to match the data and then made operational for policy analysis. A dynamic general equilibrium model is constructed that is similar to standard CMs. After calibration to UK data it is used to examine the utility of formal econometric methods in assessing the match of the CM to the data and also to evaluate some standard model-building strategies. Keywords: Policy oriented economic modeling; Model evaluation; VAR models

Participation and e-democracy how to utilize web 2.0 for policy decision-making

This paper investigates in how to utilize ICT and Web 2.0 technologies and e-democracy software for policy decision-making. It introduces a cutting edge decision-making system that integrates the practice of e-petitions, e-consultation, e-rulemaking, e-voting, and proxy voting. The paper demonstrates how under precondition of direct democracy through the use this system the collective intelligence (CI) of a population would be gathered and used throughout the policy process.

Remote sensing and core data needed to support planning and policy decision making

A variety of sustainable development research efforts and related activities are attempting to reconcile the issues of conserving our natural resources without limiting economic motivation while also improving our social equity and quality of life. Land use/land cover change, occurring on a global scale, is an aggregate of local land use decisions and profoundly impacts our environment. It is therefore the local decision making process that should be the eventual target of many of the ongoing data collection and research efforts which strive toward supporting a sustainable future. Satellite imagery data is a primary source of data upon which to build a core data set for use by researchers in analyzing this global change. A process is necessary to link global change research, utilizing satellite imagery, to the local land use decision making process. One example of this is the NASA-sponsored Regional Data Center (RDC) prototype. The RDC approach is an attempt to integrate science and technology at the community level. The anticipated result of this complex interaction between research and the decision making communities will be realized in the form of long-term benefits to the public.

Making marine life count: a new baseline for policy.

The Census of Marine Life aids practical work of the Convention on Biological Diversity, discovers and tracks ocean biodiversity, and supports marine environmental planning.

The honest broker; making sense of science in policy and politics

p.81-82

The honest broker; making sense of science in policy and politics

p.81-82

Making modelling count - increasing the contribution of shelf-seas community and ecosystem models to policy development and management

Marine legislation is becoming more complex and marine ecosystem-based management is specified in national and regional legislative frameworks. Shelf-seas community and ecosystem models (hereafter termed ecosystem models) are central to the delivery of ecosystem-based management, but there is limited uptake and use of model products by decision makers in Europe and the UK in comparison with other countries. In this study, the challenges to the uptake and use of ecosystem models in support of marine environmental management are assessed using the UK capability as an example. The UK has a broad capability in marine ecosystem modelling, with at least 14 different models that support management, but few examples exist of ecosystem modelling that underpin policy or management decisions. To improve understanding of policy and management issues that can be addressed using ecosystem models, a workshop was convened that brought together advisors, assessors, biologists, social scientists, economists, modellers, statisticians, policy makers, and funders. Some policy requirements were identified that can be addressed without further model development including: attribution of environmental change to underlying drivers, integration of models and observations to develop more efficient monitoring programmes, assessment of indicator performance for different management goals, and the costs and benefit of legislation. Multi-model ensembles are being developed in cases where many models exist, but model structures are very diverse making a standardised approach of combining outputs a significant challenge, and there is a need for new methodologies for describing, analysing, and visualising uncertainties. A stronger link to social and economic systems is needed to increase the range of policy-related questions that can be addressed. It is also important to improve communication between policy and modelling communities so that there is a shared understanding of the strengths and limitations of ecosystem models.

A cluster randomised controlled trial to evaluate a policy of making hip protectors available to residents of nursing homes

Objectives: to evaluate the effectiveness of a policy of making hip protectors available to residents of nursing homes. Design: a cluster randomised controlled trial of the policy in nursing and residential homes, with the home as the unit of randomisation. Setting: 127 nursing and residential homes in the greater Belfast area of Northern Ireland. Participants: 40 homes in the intervention group (representing 1,366 occupied beds) and 87 homes in the control group (representing 2,751 occupied beds). Interventions: a policy of making hip protectors available free of charge to residents of nursing homes and supporting the implementation process by employing a nurse facilitator to encourage staff in the homes to promote their use, over a 72-week period. Main outcome measures: the rate of hip fractures in intervention and control homes, and the level of adherence to use of hip protectors. Results: there were 85 hip fractures in the intervention homes and 163 in the control homes. The mean fracture rate per 100 residents was 6.22 in the intervention homes and 5.92 in the control homes, giving an adjusted rate ratio for the intervention group compared to the control group of 1.05 (95% CI 0.77, 1.43, P = 0.76). Initial acceptance of the hip protectors was 37.2% (508/1,366) with adherence falling to 19.9% (272/1,366) at 72 weeks. Conclusions: making hip protectors available to residents of nursing and residential homes did not reduce the rate of hip fracture.

Making ecological science policy relevant: issues of scale and disciplinary integration

In this paper, we ask why so much ecological scientific research does not have a greater policy impact in the UK. We argue that there are two potentially important and related reasons for this failing. First, much current ecological science is not being conducted at a scale that is readily meaningful to policy-makers. Second, to make much of this research policy-relevant requires collaborative interdisciplinary research between ecologists and social scientists. However, the challenge of undertaking useful interdisciplinary research only re-emphasises the problems of scale: ecologists and social scientists traditionally frame their research questions at different scales and consider different facets of natural resource management, setting different objectives and using different language. We argue that if applied ecological research is to have greater impact in informing environmental policy, much greater attention needs to be given to the scale of the research efforts as well as to the interaction with social scientists. Such an approach requires an adjustment in existing research and funding infrastructures.