Lifetime suicide risk in major depression: sex and age determinants

Background: Recent work has demonstrated that the lifetime suicide risk for patients with DSM IV Major Depression cannot mathematically approximate the accepted figure of 15%. Gender and age significantly affect both the prevalence of major depression and suicide risk, Methods: Gender and age stratified calculations were made on the entire population of the USA in 1994 using a mathematical algorithm. Sex specific corrections for under-reporting were incorporated into the design. Results: The lifetime suicide risks for men and women were 7% and 1%, respectively. The combined risk was 3.4%. The male:female ratio for suicide risk in major depression was 10:1 for youths under 25, and 5.6:1 for adults. Conclusions: Suicide in major depression is predominantly a male problem, although complacency towards female sufferers is to be avoided. Diagnosis of major depression is of limited help in predicting suicide risk compared to case specific factors. The male experience of depression that leads to suicide is often not identified as a legitimate medical complaint by either sufferers or professionals. Increasing help-accessing by males is a priority. Clinical implications: Patients with a history of hospitalisation; comorbidity, especially for substance abuse; and who are male, require greater vigilance for suicide risk. It may be that for males che threshold for diagnosing and treating major depression needs to be lowered. Limitations: This research is based on a mathematical algorithm to approximate a life-long longitudinal study that identifies community cases of depression. Our findings therefore rely on the validity of the statistics used. Extrapolation is limited to populations with an actual suicide rate of 17/100,000 or less and a lifetime prevalence of major depression of 17% or more. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Development of a clinical and echocardiographic score for assigning risk of major events after exercise and dobutamine echocardiograms

The prognostic value of exercise (EXE) and dobutamine echocardiograms (DbE) has been well defined in large studies. However, while risk is determined by both clinical and echo features, no simple means of combining these data has been defined. We sought to combine these data into risk scores. Methods. At 3 expert centers, 7650 pts underwent standard EXE (n=5211) and DbE (w2439) for evaluation of known or suspected CAD and were followed for up to 10 years (mean 5-2) for major events (death or myocardial infarction). A subgroup of 2953 EXE and 1025 DbE pts was randomly selected to develop separate multivariate models for prediction of events. After simplication of each model for clinical use, models were validated in the remaining EXE and DbE pts. ResuI1s. The total number of events was 200 in the EXE and 225 in the DbE pts, of which 58 and 99 events occurred in the respective testing groups. The following regression equations gave equivalent results I” the testing and validation groups for both EXE and DbE; DbE = (Age’O.02) + (DM’l .O) + (Low RPP’0.6) + ([CHF+lschemia+Scar]‘O.7) EXE = ([DM+CHF]‘O.S) + O.S(lschemla #) + l.B(Scar#) - (METS0.19) (where each categorical variable scored 1 when present and 0 when absent, Ischemia# = 1 for l-2 VD. 6 for 3 VD; Scar# = 1 for 1-2 VD, 1.7 for 3 VD). The table summarizes the scores and equivalent outcomes for EXE and DbE. Conclusions. Risk scores based on clinical and EXE or DbE results may be used to quantify the risk of events during follow-up.

Infection risk associated with a closed luer access device

The potential for microbial contamination associated with a recently developed needleless closed luer access device (CLAD) (Q-Syte™ Becton Dickinson, Sandy, UT, USA) was evaluated in vitro. Compression seals of 50 multiply activated Q-Syte devices were inoculated with Staphylococcus epidermidis NCTC 9865 in 25% (v/v) human blood and then disinfected with 70% (v/v) isopropyl alcohol followed by flushing with 0.9% (w/v) sterile saline. Forty-eight of 50 (96%) saline flushes passed through devices that had been activated up to a maximum of 70 times remained sterile. A further 25 Q-Syte CLADs that had undergone multiple activations were challenged with prefilled 0.9% (w/v) sterile saline syringes, the external luer tips of which had been inoculated with S. epidermidis NCTC 9865 prior to accessing the devices. None of the devices that had been accessed up to 70 times allowed passage of micro-organisms, despite challenge micro-organisms being detected on both the syringe tip after activation and the compression seals before decontamination. These findings suggest that the Q-Syte CLAD may be activated up to 70 times with no increased risk of microbial contamination within the fluid pathway. The device may also offer protection from the external surface of syringe tips contaminated with micro-organisms. © 2005 Hospital Infection Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The board of directors, executives and risk knowledge management

Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) and Knowledge Management (KM) both encompass top-down and bottom-up approaches developing and embedding risk knowledge concepts and processes in strategy, policies, risk appetite definition, the decision-making process and business processes. The capacity to transfer risk knowledge affects all stakeholders and understanding of the risk knowledge about the enterprise's value is a key requirement in order to identify protection strategies for business sustainability. There are various factors that affect this capacity for transferring and understanding. Previous work has established that there is a difference between the influence of KM variables on Risk Control and on the perceived value of ERM. Communication among groups appears as a significant variable in improving Risk Control but only as a weak factor in improving the perceived value of ERM. However, the ERM mandate requires for its implementation a clear understanding, of risk management (RM) policies, actions and results, and the use of the integral view of RM as a governance and compliance program to support the value driven management of the organization. Furthermore, ERM implementation demands better capabilities for unification of the criteria of risk analysis, alignment of policies and protection guidelines across the organization. These capabilities can be affected by risk knowledge sharing between the RM group and the Board of Directors and other executives in the organization. This research presents an exploratory analysis of risk knowledge transfer variables used in risk management practice. A survey to risk management executives from 65 firms in various industries was undertaken and 108 answers were analyzed. Potential relationships among the variables are investigated using descriptive statistics and multivariate statistical models. The level of understanding of risk management policies and reports by the board is related to the quality of the flow of communication in the firm and perceived level of integration of the risk policy in the business processes.

Top-down or bottom-up: the real choice for public services

This article considers two contrasting approaches to reforming public services in order to meet the needs of people living in poverty. The first approach is top-down, involves categorising individuals (as 'hard to help', 'at risk', etc) and invokes scientific backing for justification. The second approach is bottom-up, emancipatory, relates to people as individuals and treats people who have experience of poverty and social exclusion as experts. The article examines each approach through providing brief examples in the fields of unemployment and parenting policy - two fields that have been central to theories of 'cycles of deprivation'. It is suggested here that the two approaches differ in terms of their scale, type of user involvement and type of evidence that is used for their legitimation. While the article suggests that direct comparison between the two approaches is difficult, it highlights the prevalence of top-down approaches towards services for people living in poverty, despite increasing support for bottom-up approaches in other policy areas.

Cadmium in the environment and high risk population groups

Cadmium has been widely used in various industries for the past fifty years, with current world production standing at around 16,755 tonnes per year. Very little cadmium is ever recycled and the ultimate fate of all cadmium is the environment. In view of reports that cadmium in the environment is increasing, this thesis aims to identify population groups 'at risk' of receiving dietary intakes of cadmium up to or above the current Food and Agricultural Organisation/World Health Organisation maximum tolerable intake of 70 ug/day. The study involves the investigation of one hundred households (260 individuals) who grow a large proportion of their vegetable diet in garden soils in the Borough of Walsall, part of an urban/industrial area in the United Kingdom. Measurements were made of the cadmium levels in atmospheric deposition, soil, house dust, diet and urine from the participants. Atmospheric deposition of cadmium was found to be comparable with other urban/industrial areas in the European Community, with deposition rates as high as 209 g ha-1 yr-1. The garden soils of the study households were found to contain up to 33 mg kg-1 total cadmium, eleven times the highest level usually found in agricultural soils. Dietary intakes of cadmium by the residents from food were calculated to be as high as 68 ug/day. It is suggested that with intakes from other sources, such as air, adventitious ingestion, smoking and occupational exposure, total intakes of cadmium may reach or exceed the FAO/WHO limit. Urinary excretion of cadmium amongst a non-smoking, non-occupationally exposed sub-group of the study population was found to be significantly higher than that of a similar urban population who did not rely on home-produced vegetables. The results from this research indicate that present levels of cadmium in urban/industrial areas can increase dietary intakes and body burdens of cadmium. As cadmium serves no useful biological function and has been found to be highly toxic, it is recommended that policy measures to reduce human exposure on the European scale be considered.

Premature cardiovascular events and mortality in south Asians with type 2 diabetes in the United Kingdom Asian Diabetes Study - effect of ethnicity on risk

Background/Aim - People of south Asian origin have an excessive risk of morbidity and mortality from cardiovascular disease. We examined the effect of ethnicity on known risk factors and analysed the risk of cardiovascular events and mortality in UK south Asian and white Europeans patients with type 2 diabetes over a 2 year period. Methods - A total of 1486 south Asian (SA) and 492 white European (WE) subjects with type 2 diabetes were recruited from 25 general practices in Coventry and Birmingham, UK. Baseline data included clinical history, anthropometry and measurements of traditional risk factors – blood pressure, total cholesterol, HbA1c. Multiple linear regression models were used to examine ethnicity differences in individual risk factors. Ten-year cardiovascular risk was estimated using the Framingham and UKPDS equations. All subjects were followed up for 2 years. Cardiovascular events (CVD) and mortality between the two groups were compared. Findings - Significant differences were noted in risk profiles between both groups. After adjustment for clustering and confounding a significant ethnicity effect remained only for higher HbA1c (0.50 [0.22 to 0.77]; P?=?0.0004) and lower HDL (-0.09 [-0.17 to -0.01]; P?=?0.0266). Baseline CVD history was predictive of CVD events during follow-up for SA (P?risk and present with cardiovascular events at a significantly younger age than white Europeans. Enhanced and ethnicity specific targets and effective treatments are needed if these inequalities are to be reduced.

Psychological risk factors for chronic post-surgical pain after inguinal hernia repair surgery:a prospective cohort study.

A significant proportion of patients experience chronic post-surgical pain (CPSP) following inguinal hernia surgery. Psychological models are useful in predicting acute pain after surgery, and in predicting the transition from acute to chronic pain in non-surgical contexts. This is a prospective cohort study to investigate psychological (cognitive and emotional) risk factors for CPSP after inguinal hernia surgery. Participants were asked to complete questionnaires before surgery and 1 week and 4 months after surgery. Data collected before surgery and 1 week after surgery were used to predict pain at 4 months. Psychological risk factors assessed included anxiety, depression, fear-avoidance, activity avoidance, catastrophizing, worry about the operation, activity expectations, perceived pain control and optimism. The study included 135 participants; follow-up questionnaires were returned by 119 (88.1%) and 115 (85.2%) participants at 1 week and 4 months after surgery respectively. The incidence of CPSP (pain at 4 months) was 39.5%. After controlling for age, body mass index and surgical variables (e.g. anaesthetic, type of surgery and mesh type used), lower pre-operative optimism was an independent risk factor for CPSP at 4 months; lower pre-operative optimism and lower perceived control over pain at 1 week after surgery predicted higher pain intensity at 4 months. No emotional variables were independently predictive of CPSP. Further research should target these cognitive variables in pre-operative psychological preparation for surgery. © 2011 European Federation of International Association for the Study of Pain Chapters.

Perception of risk, feelings of vulnerability and effects on driving behaviour in women drivers across the lifespan.

Sustained driving in older age has implications for quality of life and mental health. Studies have shown that despite the recognised importance of driving in maintaining health and social engagement, many women give up driving prematurely or adopt self-imposed restrictive driving practices. Emotional responses to driving have been implicated in these decisions. This research examined the effect of risk perception and feelings of vulnerability on women’s driving behaviour across the lifespan. It also developed and tested a modified theory of planned behaviour intervention to positively affect driving habits. The first two studies (N=395) used quantitative analysis to model driving behaviours affected by risk perception and feelings of vulnerability, and established that feelings of vulnerability do indeed affect women’s driving behaviour, specifically resulting in increases in driving avoidance and the adoption of maladaptive driving styles. Further, that self-regulation, conceptualised as avoidance, is used by drivers across the lifespan. Qualitative analysis of focus group data (N=48) in the third study provided a deeper understanding of the variations in coping behaviours adopted by sub-groups of drivers and extended the definition of self-regulation to incorporate adaptive coping strategies. The next study (N=64) reported the construction and preliminary validation of the novel self-regulation index (SRI) to measure wider self-regulation behaviours using an objective measure of driving behaviour, a simulated driving task. The understanding gained from the formative research was used in the final study, an extended theory of planned behaviour intervention to promote wider self-regulation behaviour, measured using the previously validated self-regulation index. The intervention achieved moderate success with changes in affective attitude and normative beliefs as well as self-reported behaviour. The results offer promise for self-regulation, incorporating a spectrum of planning and coping behaviours, to be used as a mechanism to assist drivers in achieving their personal mobility goals whilst promoting safe driving.

A contingency theory perspective on the risk management control system within Birmingham City Council

In recent years the topic of risk management has moved up the agenda of both government and industry, and private sector initiatives to improve risk and internal control systems have been mirrored by similar promptings for change in the public sector. Both regulators and practitioners now view risk management as an integral part of the process of corporate governance, and an aid to the achievement of strategic objectives. The paper uses case study material on the risk management control system at Birmingham City Council to extend existing theory by developing a contingency theory for the public sector. The case demonstrates that whilst the structure of the control system fits a generic model, the operational details indicate that controls are contingent upon three core variables—central government policies, information and communication technology and organisational size. All three contingent variables are suitable for testing the theory across the broader public sector arena.

Enclosing the behavior of a hybrid system up to and beyond a Zeno point

Even simple hybrid systems like the classic bouncing ball can exhibit Zeno behaviors. The existence of this type of behavior has so far forced simulators to either ignore some events or risk looping indefinitely. This in turn forces modelers to either insert ad hoc restrictions to circumvent Zeno behavior or to abandon hybrid modeling. To address this problem, we take a fresh look at event detection and localization. A key insight that emerges from this investigation is that an enclosure for a given time interval can be valid independently of the occurrence of a given event. Such an event can then even occur an unbounded number of times, thus making it possible to handle certain types of Zeno behavior.

Lack of effect of aspirin in primary CV prevention in type 2 diabetic patients with nephropathy:results from 8 years follow-up of NID-2 study

The risk-to-benefit ratio for the use of low dose of aspirin in primary cardiovascular (CV) prevention in patients with diabetes mellitus remains to be clarified. We assessed the effect of aspirin on risk of CV events in type 2 diabetic patients with nephropathy, in order to verify the usefulness of Guidelines in clinical practice. We carried out a prospective multicentric study in 564 patients with type 2 diabetic nephropathy free of CV disease attending outpatient diabetes clinics. A total of 242 patients received antiplatelet treatment with aspirin 100 mg/day (group A), and 322 were not treated with antiplatelet drugs (group B). Primary end point was the occurrence of total major adverse cardio-vascular events (MACE). Secondary end points were the relative occurrence of fatal MACE. The average follow-up was 8 years. Total MACE occurred in 49 patients from group A and in 52 patients from group B. Fatal MACE occurred in 22 patients from group A and in 20 from group B; nonfatal MACE occurred in 27 patients from group A and in 32 patients from group B. Kaplan-Meier analysis did not show a statistically significant difference of cumulative MACE between the two groups. A not statistically significant difference in the incidence of both fatal (p = 0.225) and nonfatal CV events (p = 0.573) between the two groups was observed. These results were confirmed after adjustment for confounders (HR for MACE 1.11, 95 % CI 0.91-1.35). These findings suggest that low dose of aspirin is ineffective in primary prevention for patients with nephropathy. © 2014 Springer-Verlag Italia.

On the Lp-Norm Regression Models for Estimating Value-at-Risk

Analysis of risk measures associated with price series data movements and its predictions are of strategic importance in the financial markets as well as to policy makers in particular for short- and longterm planning for setting up economic growth targets. For example, oilprice risk-management focuses primarily on when and how an organization can best prevent the costly exposure to price risk. Value-at-Risk (VaR) is the commonly practised instrument to measure risk and is evaluated by analysing the negative/positive tail of the probability distributions of the returns (profit or loss). In modelling applications, least-squares estimation (LSE)-based linear regression models are often employed for modeling and analyzing correlated data. These linear models are optimal and perform relatively well under conditions such as errors following normal or approximately normal distributions, being free of large size outliers and satisfying the Gauss-Markov assumptions. However, often in practical situations, the LSE-based linear regression models fail to provide optimal results, for instance, in non-Gaussian situations especially when the errors follow distributions with fat tails and error terms possess a finite variance. This is the situation in case of risk analysis which involves analyzing tail distributions. Thus, applications of the LSE-based regression models may be questioned for appropriateness and may have limited applicability. We have carried out the risk analysis of Iranian crude oil price data based on the Lp-norm regression models and have noted that the LSE-based models do not always perform the best. We discuss results from the L1, L2 and L∞-norm based linear regression models. ACM Computing Classification System (1998): B.1.2, F.1.3, F.2.3, G.3, J.2.

Estimation of a Regression Function on a Point Process and its Application to Financial Ruin Risk Forecast

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: Primary 60G55; secondary 60G25.

Does start-up financing influence start-up speed? Evidence from the panel study of entrepreneurial dynamics

Why are some entrepreneurs able to start a new firm more quickly than others in the venture creation process? Drawing on pecking order and agency theory, this study investigates how start-up capital structure influences the time to either new firm founding or quitting the start-up process. The temporal aspect of the start-up process is one that is often discussed, but rarely studied. Therefore, we utilize competing risk and Cox regression event history analysis on a nationally representative sample of US entrepreneurs to investigate how start-up capital structure impacts the time in gestation to particular kinds of start-up outcomes. Our findings suggest that external equity has an appreciable impact on new firm emergence over time, and that the percentage of ownership held by the founders attenuates the benefits of external equity.