Impacts of climate change on species, populations and communities: palaeobiogeographical insights and frontiers

Understanding climate change and its potential impact on species, populations and communities is one of the most pressing questions of twenty-fi rst-century conservation planning. Palaeobiogeographers working on Cenozoic fossil records and other lines of evidence are producing important insights into the dynamic nature of climate and the equally dynamic response of species, populations and communities. Climatic variations ranging in length from multimillennia to decades run throughout the palaeo-records of the Quaternary and earlier Cenozoic and have been shown to have had impacts ranging from changes in the genetic structure and morphology of individual species, population sizes and distributions, community composition to large-scale bio-diversity gradients. The biogeographical impacts of climate change may be due directly to the effects of alterations in temperature and moisture on species, or they may arise due to changes in factors such as disturbance regimes. Much of the recent progress in the application of palaeobiogegraphy to issues of climate change and its impacts can be attributed to developments along a number of still advancing methodological frontiers. These include increasingly finely resolved chronological resolution, more refi ned atmosphere-biosphere modelling, new biological and chemical techniques in reconstructing past species distributions and past climates, the development of large and readily accessible geo-referenced databases of biogeographical and climatic information, and new approaches in fossil morphological analysis and new molecular DNA techniques.

Phylogeographic insights into cryptic glacial refugia

The glacial episodes of the Quaternary (2.6 million years ago–present) were a major factor in shaping the present-day distributions of extant flora and fauna, with expansions and contractions of the ice sheets rendering large areas uninhabitable for most species. Fossil records suggest that many species survived glacial maxima by retreating to refugia, usually at lower latitudes. Recently, phylogeographic studies have given support to the existence of previously unknown, or cryptic, refugia. Here we summarise many of these insights into the glacial histories of species in cryptic refugia gained through phylogeographic approaches. Understanding such refugia might be important as the Earth heads into another period of climate change, in terms of predicting the effects on species distribution and survival.

A review of the status and decline in abundance of the Irish Hare (Lepus timidus hibernicus) in Northern Ireland

The Northern Ireland Hare Survey documented the distribution of the Irish Hare (Lepus timidus hibernicus). Historical game bag records and other, more contemporary, records of hare distribution were examined. These data indicate how numbers of L t. hibernicus may have changed over the last 140 years. The results of the Northern Ireland Hare Survey suggested that L. t. hibernicus was widespread throughout Northern Ireland. Current average densities are no more than 0.65 hares/km(2). Game bag records indicate that hare densities may have been much higher in the past, with a maximum of 138 hares/km(2) recorded on Crom Estate, Co. Fermanagh, in 1864. Evidence from hare distribution recorded during the Northern Ireland Rabbit Survey indicates that hare numbers declined between 1984 and 1994. Evidence from all sources suggests that L. t. hibernicus has declined in abundance substantially, with present total population estimates for Northern Ireland ranging from 8250 to 21000 individuals. Flushing data indicate that rushes and hedgerows are important diurnal resting areas for hares. While the principal reason for the decline in numbers of L. t. hibernicus in Northern Ireland is not clear, more species-rich pasture and provision of areas of cover, such as rushes, may arrest further declines, or indeed promote numbers of hares, particularly in lowland areas.

The diet and landclass affinities of the Irish hare Lepus timidus hibernicus

The diet of the Irish hare Lepus timidus hibernicus was investigated in Northern Ireland. Faecal pellets were collected at regular intervals from three contrasting study sites and from a number of randomly selected sites from known land classes. Microhistological techniques were employed to analyse the pellets. Grass species occurred in high percentage frequencies in all samples of faecal pellets and a wide variety of plant species were represented (up to 26 species in one study site). In a stratified, random survey of the presence of hares, areas of lowland intensive agriculture had fewer positive records than expected. It is contended that L. t. hibernicus may not be able to sustain viable populations in areas of intensive agriculture, which are almost exclusively composed of ryegrass Lolium spp.

Variability in thermal and UV-B energy fluxes through time and their influence on plant diversity and speciation

Throughout Earth's history there have been temporal and spatial variations in the amount of visible and ultraviolet radiation received by ecosystems. This paper examines if temporal changes in these forms of energy receipt could have influenced the tempo and mode of plant diversity and speciation, focusing in particular upon Cenozoic time-scales. Evidence for changing patterns of plant diversity and speciation apparent in various fossil records and molecular phylogenies are considered alongside calculated changes in thermal and solar ultraviolet energy (specifically UV-B) over the past 50 Myr. We suggest that changes in thermal energy influx (amount and variability) affected the tempo of evolution through its influence upon community dynamics (e.g. population size, diversity, turnover, extinctions). It was not only the amount of thermal energy but also variability in its flux that may have influenced these processes, and ultimately the rate of diversification. We suggest that variations in UV-B would have influenced the mode and tempo of speciation through changes to genome stability during intervals of elevated UV-B. We argue, therefore, that although variability in thermal energy and UV-B fluxes through time may lead to the same end-point (changing the rate of diversification), the processes responsible are very different and both need to be considered when linking evolutionary processes to energy flux.

Can we characterise ‘openness’ in the Holocene palaeoenvironmental record? Modern analogue studies of insect faunas and pollen spectra from Dunham Massey deer park and Epping Forest, England

This paper examines the degree to which tree-associated Coleoptera (beetles) and pollen could be used to predict the degree of ‘openness’ in woodland. The results from two modern insect and pollen analogue studies from ponds at Dunham Massey, Cheshire and Epping Forest, Greater London are presented. We explore the reliability of modern pollen rain and sub-fossil beetle assemblages to represent varying degrees of canopy cover for up to 1000m from a sampling site. Modern woodland canopy structure around the study sites has been assessed using GIS-based mapping at increasing radial distances as an independent check on the modern insect and pollen data sets. These preliminary results suggest that it is possible to use tree-associated Coleoptera to assess the degree of local vegetation openness. Additionally, it appears that insect remains may indicate the relative intensity of land use by grazing animals. Our results also suggest most insects are collected from within a 100m to 200m radius of the sampling site. The pollen results suggest that local vegetation and density of woodland in the immediate area of the sampling site can have a strong role in determining the pollen signal.

Carbon accumulation in peatlands of West Siberia over the last 2000 years

We use a network of cores from 77 peatland sites to determine controls on peat C content and peat C accumulation over the last 2000 years (since 2 ka) across Russia's West Siberian Lowland (WSL), the world's largest wetland region. Our results show a significant influence of fossil plant composition on peat C content, with peats dominated by Sphagnum having a lower C content. Radiocarbon-derived C accumulation since 2 ka at 23 sites is highly variable from site to site, but displays a significant N–S trend of decreasing accumulation at higher latitudes. Northern WSL peatlands show relatively small C accumulation of 7 to 35 kg C m-2 since 2 ka. In contrast, peatlands south of 60°N show larger accumulation of 42 to 88 kg C m-2. Carbon accumulation since 2 ka varies significantly with modern mean annual air temperature, with maximum C accumulation found between -1 and 0°C. Rates of apparent C accumulation since 2 ka show no significant relationship to long-term Holocene averages based on total C accumulation. A GIS-based extrapolation of our site data suggests that a substantial amount (~40%) of total WSL peat C has accumulated since 2 ka, with much of this accumulation south of 60°N. The large peatlands in the southern WSL may be an important component of the Eurasian terrestrial C sink, and future warming could result in a shift northward in long-term WSL C sequestration.

Integrating field sports, hare population management and conservation

Conflicts between field sports, animal welfare and species conservation are frequently contentious. In Ireland, the Irish Coursing Club (ICC) competitively tests the speed and agility of two greyhounds by using a live hare as a lure. Each coursing club is associated with a number of discrete localities, known as preserves, which are managed favourably for hares including predator control, prohibition of other forms of hunting such as shooting and poaching and the maintenance and enhancement of suitable hare habitat. We indirectly tested the efficacy of such management by comparing hare abundance within preserves to that in the wider countryside. In real terms, mean hare density was 18 times higher, and after controlling for variance in habitat remained 3 times higher, within ICC preserves than the wider countryside. Whilst we cannot rule out the role of habitat, our results suggest that hare numbers are maintained at high levels in ICC preserves either because clubs select areas of high hare density and subsequently have a negligible effect on numbers or that active population management positively increases hare abundance. The Irish hare Lepus timidus hibernicus Bell, 1837 is one of the highest priority species for conservation action in Ireland and without concessions for its role in conservation, any change in the legal status Of hare coursing under animal welfare grounds, may necessitate an increase in Government subsidies for conservation on private land together with a strengthened capacity for legislation enforcement.

Is naturalisation of the brown hare in Ireland a threat to the endemic Irish hare?

On islands, one of the greatest risks to native wildlife is the establishment of alien species. In Ireland, the Irish hare (Lepus timidus hibernicus), the only native lagomorph, may be at risk from competitive exclusion and hybridisation with naturalised brown hares (L. europaeus) that were introduced during the late nineteenth century. Pre- and post-breeding spotlight surveys during 2005 in the north of Ireland determined that brown hare populations are established in mid-Ulster and west Tyrone. In mid-Ulster, brown hares comprised 53%-62% of the hare population, with an estimated abundance of 700-2000 individuals between pre- and post-breeding periods. Comparison of habitat niches suggest that Irish and brown hares have comparable niche breadths that at times completely overlap, suggesting the potential for strong competition between the species. Anecdotal evidence suggests that both species may hybridise. Further research is urgently required to assess the degree of risk that naturalised brown hares pose to the Irish hare population and what action, if any, is needed to ensure the future ecological security and genetic integrity of the native species.

Factors associated with hare mortality during coursing

Hare coursing is a widespread but controversial activity. In an attempt to reduce hare mortality and mitigate the activity's impact on hare welfare, the Irish Coursing Club introduced measures including the compulsory muzzling of dogs in 1993. However, the efficacy of these measures remained the subject of heated debate. Official records, corroborated by independent video evidence, were used to assess the fate of individual Irish hares (Lepus timiclus hibernicus) during coursing events from 1988-2004. Muzzling dogs significantly reduced levels of hare mortality. In courses using unmuzzled dogs from 1988189-1992193 mean hare mortality was 15.8%, compared to 4.1% in courses using muzzled dogs from 1993194-2003104. Further reductions in mortality could not be accounted for by muzzling dogs, supporting the efficacy of other factors such as improved hare husbandry. The duration of the head start given to the hare prior to the release of the dogs significantly affected the outcome of the course. Hares that were killed had head starts of greater duration than those that were chased but survived, suggesting the former may have been slower. The selection of hares by assessment of their running ability may provide means to reduce hare mortality during courses further. Our findings support the efficacy of measures taken to mitigate the impact of coursing on individual hares. However, it is necessary to evaluate the impact of removing hares from the source population and of returning coursed hares to the wild before the wider impact of coursing on wild hare populations can be determined.

European hare (Lepus europaeus) invasion ecology: Implication for the conservation of the endemic Irish hare (Lepus timidus hibernicus)

European hare Lepus europaeus populations have undergone recent declines but the species has successfully naturalised in many countries outside its native range. It was introduced to Ireland during the mid-late nineteenth century for field sport and is now well established in Northern Ireland. The native Irish hare Lepus timidus hibernicus is an endemic subspecies of mountain hare L. timidus and has attracted major conservation concern following a long-term population decline during the twentieth century and is one of the highest priority species for conservation action in Ireland. Little is known about the European hare in Ireland or whether it poses a significant threat to the native mountain hare subspecies by compromising its ecological security or genetic integrity. We review the invasion ecology of the European hare and examine evidence for interspecific competition with the mountain hare for habitat space and food resources, interspecific hybridisation, disease and parasite transmission and possible impacts of climate change. We also examine the impact that introduced hares can have on native non-lagomorph species. We conclude that the European hare is an emerging and significant threat to the conservation status of the native Irish hare. Invasive mammal species have been successfully eradicated from Ireland before and immediate action is often the only opportunity for cost-effective eradication. An urgent call is issued for further research whilst the need for a European hare invasive Species Action Plan (iSAP) and Eradication strategy are discussed.

First record of minimum Irish hare (Lepus timidus hibernicus Bell 1837) longevity in the wild.

Average longevity of the mountain hare (Lepus timidus L., 1758) has been estimated at nine years in the wild (Macdonald D. and Barrett, P. 1993 Mammals of Britain and Europe. Harper Collins Publishers, London) with a maximum recorded age of 18 years for one marked animal (Angerbjörn, A. and Flux, J. E. C. 1995 Lepus timidus. Mammalian Species 495: 1–11). However, the longevity of the Irish hare (L. t. hibernicus Bell 1837) is entirely unknown. A total of 14 Irish hares was trapped and tagged at Belfast International Airport, Co. Antrim from February to April 2005. The sex, age (juvenile or adult) and weight of each animal were recorded. Adults were taken as those individuals >8-10 months old defined by the fusing of the notch between the apophysis and diaphysis of the tibia and humerus (Flux, J. E. C. 1970 Journal of Zoology 161: 75-123). Individual identification was made by a system of colourcoded ear tags (Roxan iD Ltd. Selkirk, Scotland) being inserted in the centre of the pinna of each ear. Each ear tag (6 × 34 mm) and puncture site was disinfected with 70 per cent ethanol prior to insertion. An adult male, #001/002 ‘Blue/Blue’, was tagged on 3 March 2005 weighing 3.8 kg and was sighted during a return site visit on 4 April 2007. An adult female, #026/003 ‘Green/Yellow’, was tagged on 15 April 2005 weighing 4.0 kg and was sighted during return visits on 25 March 2010 and 19 October 2010. The latest possible date of birth for both individuals was spring/summer 2004. Consequently, they were at least 3 years and 6.5 years old, respectively. This is the first record of minimum Irish hare longevity in the wild. These observations suggest that ear tagging does not compromise animal welfare and is an effective means of long-term monitoring. Future research may utilize capture-mark-recapture methods.

Mammals and agri-environment schemes: hare haven or pest paradise?

1. Agri-environment schemes (AESs) are designed to create landscape-scale improvements in biodiversity. While the specific aims of AESs do not always include the enhancement of species of conservation concern, associated conservation strategies, such as the UK Biodiversity Action Plan, often rest on the assumption that AESs enhance environmental conditions and thereby improve the conservation status of target species. However, there is little evidence for the general efficacy of AESs in this respect. 2. To evaluate the effects of the Environmentally Sensitive Area (ESA) scheme, a widespread AES in Northern Ireland, a spotlight survey of the relative abundance of three mammal species, Irish hare Lepus timidus hibernicus, European rabbit Oryctolagus cuniculus and red fox Vulpes vulpes, was conducted. Of these, the Irish hare is a priority species for conservation action and the focus of a species action plan, while rabbit and fox are commonly considered agricultural pests. The effects of ESA designation and habitat on each species were assessed at 150 ESA and 50 non-ESA sites, matched for landscape characteristics. 3. The ESA scheme had no demonstrable effect on the abundance of Irish hares, and this agri-environment scheme did not target the landscape and habitat variables associated with hares. 4. In contrast, the abundance of rabbits and foxes was significantly greater within ESAs than the wider countryside. Agricultural factors such as reduced livestock stocking density, reduced overgrazing and field boundary enhancements may create more favourable conditions for both species. Aside from the implications for farm economics, the proliferation of rabbit populations within conservation areas may raise issues concerning the grazing of important plant communities, while increases in fox populations may adversely affect ground-nesting birds and other animal species of conservation concern. 5. Synthesis and applications: The abundance of rabbits and foxes corroborates recent work that suggests AESs may benefit common species but can not be relied upon to encourage rarer species. The Irish hare species action plan relies on agri-environment schemes to enhance the species’ status and realize the target of increasing the hare population by 2010 by promoting suitable habitat. However, the ESA scheme is unlikely to help in achieving these objectives. Targeted and evidence-based agri-environment prescriptions are clearly required in order to ensure the realization of species-specific conservation targets.

4 ◦C and beyond: what did this mean for biodiversity in the past?

How do the predicted climatic changes (IPCC, 2007) for the next century compare in magnitude and rate to those that Earth has previously encountered? Are there comparable intervals of rapid rates of temperature change, sea-level rise and levels of atmospheric CO2 that can be used as analogues to assess possible biotic responses to future change? Or are we stepping into the great unknown? This perspective article focuses on intervals in time in the fossil record when atmospheric CO2 concentrations increased up to 1200 ppmv, temperatures in mid- to high-latitudes increased by greater than 4 ?C within 60 years, and sea levels rose by up to 3 m higher than present. For these intervals in time, case studies of past biotic responses are presented to demonstrate the scale and impact of the magnitude and rate of such climate changes on biodiversity. We argue that although the underlying mechanisms responsible for these past changes in climate were very different (i.e. natural processes rather than anthropogenic), the rates and magnitude of climate change are similar to those predicted for the future and therefore potentially relevant to understanding future biotic response. What emerges from these past records is evidence for rapid community turnover, migrations, development of novel ecosystems and thresholds from one stable ecosystem state to another, but there is very little evidence for broad-scale extinctions due to a warming world. Based on this evidence from the fossil record, we make four recommendations for future climate-change integrated conservation strategies.

Steady-State and Transient Performance of Biodiesel-Fueled Compression-Ignition-Based Electrical Generation

This paper investigates the performance characteristics of rapeseed methyl ester, EN 14214 biodiesel, when used for electrical generation in compression ignition engines. The work was inspired by the need to replace fossil diesel fuel with a sustainable low carbon alternative while maintaining generator performance, power quality, and compliance with ISO 8528-5. A 50-kVA Perkins diesel engine generator was used to assess the impact of biodiesel with particular regard to gen-set fuel consumption, load acceptance, and associated standards. Tests were performed on the diesel gen-set for islanded and grid-connected modes of operation, hence both steady-state and transient performance were fully explored. Performance comparisons were made with conventional fossil diesel fuel, revealing minimal technical barriers for electrical generation from this sustainable, carbon benign fuel. Recommendations for improved transient performance are proposed and validated through tests.