On the question of proportionality of the count of observed Scrapie cases and the size of holding

Background: The present paper investigates the question of a suitable basic model for the number of scrapie cases in a holding and applications of this knowledge to the estimation of scrapie-ffected holding population sizes and adequacy of control measures within holding. Is the number of scrapie cases proportional to the size of the holding in which case it should be incorporated into the parameter of the error distribution for the scrapie counts? Or, is there a different - potentially more complex - relationship between case count and holding size in which case the information about the size of the holding should be better incorporated as a covariate in the modeling? Methods: We show that this question can be appropriately addressed via a simple zero-truncated Poisson model in which the hypothesis of proportionality enters as a special offset-model. Model comparisons can be achieved by means of likelihood ratio testing. The procedure is illustrated by means of surveillance data on classical scrapie in Great Britain. Furthermore, the model with the best fit is used to estimate the size of the scrapie-affected holding population in Great Britain by means of two capture-recapture estimators: the Poisson estimator and the generalized Zelterman estimator. Results: No evidence could be found for the hypothesis of proportionality. In fact, there is some evidence that this relationship follows a curved line which increases for small holdings up to a maximum after which it declines again. Furthermore, it is pointed out how crucial the correct model choice is when applied to capture-recapture estimation on the basis of zero-truncated Poisson models as well as on the basis of the generalized Zelterman estimator. Estimators based on the proportionality model return very different and unreasonable estimates for the population sizes. Conclusion: Our results stress the importance of an adequate modelling approach to the association between holding size and the number of cases of classical scrapie within holding. Reporting artefacts and speculative biological effects are hypothesized as the underlying causes of the observed curved relationship. The lack of adjustment for these artefacts might well render ineffective the current strategies for the control of the disease.

The aetiology and treatment of developmental stammering in childhood

Developmental stammering (DS, also known as idiopathic stammering or stuttering) is a disorder of speech fluency that affects approximately 0.75% to 1% of the populations of Great Britain, Australia and America,(1-4) although a recent study puts the point prevalence figure at between 1% and 3% in the UK.(5) Prevalence is generally thought to be similar amongst communities worldwide, although there have been occasional suggestions that this figure might be lower in countries where there is less pressure on verbal acuity.(6) DS may be distinguished from neurogenic stammering, which can occur subsequent to neurological damage of various aetiologies (for example, stroke, tumour, degenerative disease) and psychogenic stammering, whose onset can be related to a significant psychological event such as bereavement. While a diagnosis of neurogenic stammering might be made in early childhood and adolescence, both neurogenic and psychogenic types are typically associated with an adult onset. DS is by far the most common form of stammering and usually develops in the pre-school years. The mean age at onset is 4 2, with 75% of cases beginning before the age of 6.(1) However, occasionally, stammering onset may be seen as late as 12 or 13 years of age.

British pharmacy professionals’ beliefs and participation in continuing professional development: a review of the literature.

Objectives Continuing professional development (CPD) has potential to be useful in pharmacy revalidation but past uptake and attitudes to CPD in Great Britain (GB) need to be mapped. This review examines published literature to chart the participation and beliefs of pharmacy professionals towards CPD in GB in a decade that had seen a formal transition from continuing education to CPD. Methods A comprehensive review of the published literature was conducted to identify studies of the uptake of, or attitudes towards, CPD cross different sectors of pharmacy in GB from 2000 to 2010. Key findings Twenty-two studies were included and analysed, including 13 research papers, six conference papers, two news items reporting survey outcomes and one commissioned study. Eight barriers to CPD were identified as: time, financial costs and resource issues, understanding of CPD, facilitation and support for CPD, motivation and interest in CPD, attitudes towards compulsory CPD, system constraints, and technical problems. Pharmacy professionals on the whole agreed with the principle of engaging with CPD but there was little evidence to suggest widespread and wholehearted acceptance and uptake of CPD, essential for revalidation. Conclusions If CPD is to succeed, people's beliefs and attitudes must be addressed by recognising and modifying perceived barriers through a combination of regulatory, professional, work-related and personal channels. A number of recommendations are made. Direct experience of effective CPD in the absence of perceived barriers could impact on personal development, career development and patient benefit thus strengthening personal beliefs in the value of CPD in an iterative manner.

British pharmacy professionals' beliefs and participation in continuing professional development: a review of the literature

Objectives:  Continuing professional development (CPD) has potential to be useful in pharmacy revalidation but past uptake and attitudes to CPD in Great Britain (GB) need to be mapped. This review examines published literature to chart the participation and beliefs of pharmacy professionals towards CPD in GB in a decade that had seen a formal transition from continuing education to CPD. Methods:  A comprehensive review of the published literature was conducted to identify studies of the uptake of, or attitudes towards, CPD cross different sectors of pharmacy in GB from 2000 to 2010. Key findings:  Twenty-two studies were included and analysed, including 13 research papers, six conference papers, two news items reporting survey outcomes and one commissioned study. Eight barriers to CPD were identified as: time, financial costs and resource issues, understanding of CPD, facilitation and support for CPD, motivation and interest in CPD, attitudes towards compulsory CPD, system constraints, and technical problems. Pharmacy professionals on the whole agreed with the principle of engaging with CPD but there was little evidence to suggest widespread and wholehearted acceptance and uptake of CPD, essential for revalidation. Conclusions:  If CPD is to succeed, people's beliefs and attitudes must be addressed by recognising and modifying perceived barriers through a combination of regulatory, professional, work-related and personal channels. A number of recommendations are made. Direct experience of effective CPD in the absence of perceived barriers could impact on personal development, career development and patient benefit thus strengthening personal beliefs in the value of CPD in an iterative manner.

English Contract Law and the Great War: the development of a doctrine of frustration

This article examines changes that occurred in English contract law as a result of the demands made upon Great Britain by the Great War. The focus is on the development of the doctrine of frustration in English law. In particular, it is argued that the development of the doctrine of frustration was fashioned from internal legal forces in the form of both existing case law and emergency legislation in response to the demands placed upon the nation by a global war. The way in which the doctrine of frustration developed during the Great War arose as a direct result of the way in which Britain chose to meet the logistical demands created by the way it fought the Great War.

Does repeated burial of skeletal muscle tissue (Ovis aries) in soil affect subsequent decomposition?

The repeated introduction of an organic resource to soil can result in its enhanced degradation. This phenomenon is of primary importance in agroecosystems, where the dynamics of repeated nutrient, pesticide, and herbicide amendment must be understood to achieve optimal yield. Although not yet investigated, the repeated introduction of cadaveric material is an important area of research in forensic science and cemetery planning. It is not currently understood what effects the repeated burial of cadaveric material has on cadaver decomposition or soil processes such as carbon mineralization. To address this gap in knowledge, we conducted a laboratory experiment using ovine (Ovis aries) skeletal muscle tissue (striated muscle used for locomotion) and three contrasting soils (brown earth, rendzina, podsol) from Great Britain. This experiment comprised two stages. In Stage I skeletal muscle tissue (150 g as 1.5 g cubes) was buried in sieved (4.6 mm) soil (10 kg dry weight) calibrated to 60% water holding capacity and allowed to decompose in the dark for 70 days at 22 °C. Control samples comprised soil without skeletal muscle tissue. In Stage II, soils were weighed (100 g dry weight at 60% WHC) into 1285 ml incubation microcosms. Half of the soils were designated for a second tissue amendment, which comprised the burial (2.5 cm) of 1.5 g cube of skeletal muscle tissue. The remaining half of the samples did not receive tissue. Thus, four treatments were used in each soil, reflecting all possible combinations of tissue burial (+) and control (−). Subsequent measures of tissue mass loss, carbon dioxide-carbon evolution, soil microbial biomass carbon, metabolic quotient and soil pH show that repeated burial of skeletal muscle tissue was associated with a significantly greater rate of decomposition in all soils. However, soil microbial biomass following repeated burial was either not significantly different (brown earth, podsol) or significantly less (rendzina) than new gravesoil. Based on these results, we conclude that enhanced decomposition of skeletal muscle tissue was most likely due to the proliferation of zymogenous soil microbes able to better use cadaveric material re-introduced to the soil.

Interacting effects of climate change and habitat fragmentation on drought-sensitive butterflies

Climate change is expected to increase the frequency of some climatic extremes. These may have drastic impacts on biodiversity, particularly if meteorological thresholds are crossed, leading to population collapses. Should this occur repeatedly, populations may be unable to recover, resulting in local extinctions. Comprehensive time series data on butterflies in Great Britain provide a rare opportunity to quantify population responses to both past severe drought and the interaction with habitat area and fragmentation. Here, we combine this knowledge with future projections from multiple climate models, for different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), and for simultaneous modelled responses to different landscape characteristics. Under RCP8.5, which is associated with ‘business as usual’ emissions, widespread drought-sensitive butterfly population extinctions could occur as early as 2050. However, by managing landscapes and particularly reducing habitat fragmentation, the probability of persistence until mid-century improves from around zero to between 6 and 42% (95% confidence interval). Achieving persistence with a greater than 50% chance and right through to 2100 is possible only under both low climate change (RCP2.6) and semi-natural habitat restoration. Our data show that, for these drought-sensitive butterflies, persistence is achieved more effectively by restoring semi-natural landscapes to reduce fragmentation, rather than simply focusing on increasing habitat area, but this will only be successful in combination with substantial emission reductions.

Climate-driven expansion of blanket bogs in Britain during the Holocene

Blanket bog occupies approximately 6% of the area of the UK today. The Holocene expansion of this hyperoceanic biome has previously been explained as a consequence of Neolithic forest clearance. However, the present distribution of blanket bog in Great Britain can be predicted accurately with a simple model (PeatStash) based on summer temperature and moisture index thresholds, and the same model correctly predicts the highly disjunct distribution of blanket bog worldwide. This finding suggests that climate, rather than land-use history, controls blanket-bog distribution in the UK and everywhere else. We set out to test this hypothesis for blanket bogs in the UK using bioclimate envelope modelling compared with a database of peat initiation age estimates. We used both pollen-based reconstructions and climate model simulations of climate changes between the mid-Holocene (6000 yr BP, 6 ka) and modern climate to drive PeatStash and predict areas of blanket bog. We compiled data on the timing of blanketbog initiation, based on 228 age determinations at sites where peat directly overlies mineral soil. The model predicts that large areas of northern Britain would have had blanket bog by 6000 yr BP, and the area suitable for peat growth extended to the south after this time. A similar pattern is shown by the basal peat ages and new blanket bog appeared over a larger area during the late Holocene, the greatest expansion being in Ireland,Wales, and southwest England, as the model predicts. The expansion was driven by a summer cooling of about 2 °C, shown by both pollen-based reconstructions and climate models. The data show early Holocene (pre- Neolithic) blanket-bog initiation at over half of the sites in the core areas of Scotland and northern England. The temporal patterns and concurrence of the bioclimate model predictions and initiation data suggest that climate change provides a parsimonious explanation for the early Holocene distribution and later expansion of blanket bogs in the UK, and it is not necessary to invoke anthropogenic activity as a driver of this major landscape change.

Long-term changes to the frequency of occurrence of British moths are consistent with opposing and synergistic effects of climate and land-use changes

1. Species’ distributions are likely to be affected by a combination of environmental drivers. We used a data set of 11 million species occurrence records over the period 1970–2010 to assess changes in the frequency of occurrence of 673 macro-moth species in Great Britain. Groups of species with different predicted sensitivities showed divergent trends, which we interpret in the context of land-use and climatic changes. 2. A diversity of responses was revealed: 260 moth species declined significantly, whereas 160 increased significantly. Overall, frequencies of occurrence declined, mirroring trends in less species-rich, yet more intensively studied taxa. 3. Geographically widespread species, which were predicted to be more sensitive to land use than to climate change, declined significantly in southern Britain, where the cover of urban and arable land has increased. 4. Moths associated with low nitrogen and open environments (based on their larval host plant characteristics) declined most strongly, which is also consistent with a land-use change explanation. 5. Some moths that reach their northern (leading edge) range limit in southern Britain increased, whereas species restricted to northern Britain (trailing edge) declined significantly, consistent with a climate change explanation. 6. Not all species of a given type behaved similarly, suggesting that complex interactions between species’ attributes and different combinations of environmental drivers determine frequency of occurrence changes. 7. Synthesis and applications. Our findings are consistent with large-scale responses to climatic and land-use changes, with some species increasing and others decreasing. We suggest that land-use change (e.g. habitat loss, nitrogen deposition) and climate change are both major drivers of moth biodiversity change, acting independently and in combination. Importantly, the diverse responses revealed in this species-rich taxon show that multifaceted conservation strategies are needed to minimize negative biodiversity impacts of multiple environmental changes. We suggest that habitat protection, management and ecological restoration can mitigate combined impacts of land-use change and climate change by providing environments that are suitable for existing populations and also enable species to shift their ranges.

Borlänge and Falun Brundtland cities

Development of an infrastructure for Brundtland Renewable Energy Network - BREN is a European Commission Alterner Project with Contract no XVII/4. 1030/Z96-032.The project has its origin in the UN-report “Our Common Future”, 1989. A change in and reduction of the use of energy was fundamental in order to reach the goals which the report proposed. Denmark decided on an action plan on how energy consumption could be reduced “Energi 2000 - Handlingsplan för en bäredygtig udvikling”. The ministries of energy in Denmark and Schleswig Holstein both agreed to start an energy saving project in a smaller town. The project was called “Brundtlandby” and the two first were Toftlund in South Jutland and Bredstedt in North Friesland. After a short period a further two German Cities, Rheinsberg and Viernheim, and Rajec in Slovakia joined the group. A network for the exchange of knowledge and experience between the cities was formed. The network, Brundtland City Project, inspired the participating cities in the continuing work with energy saving measures. The Brundtland City Project was presented at an international conference “Cities and Energy” in Trondheim, Norway,in December 1995. Great interest was shown in the project and it was decided that a network should be developed in northern European countries as a pilot project to be enlarged with other European countries later on. A steering committee was formed with representatives from the nordic countries.An application was sent to the European Commission, Alterner Program, and was approved in Juli 1996. The project was subdivided into nine activities. Activity 1, consisted of summarising the experiences of the Brundtland City Project in Toftlund, Denmark and the Brundtland Cities network in Slovakia, Germany and Denmark. The Scandinavian part started with Activity 2, to engage municipalities/cities in Finland, Norway and Sweden in the project. The Solar Energy Research Center, SERC, Högskolan Dalarna was appointed as co-ordinator for the Swedish part. The project was presented at a seminar on the 30th September for representatives from the municipalities of Borlänge and Falun. On the 10th of December 1996 the two municipalities accepted the invitation to join the Northern network. Pelle Helje, Borlänge Energi, has been informant for the municipality of Borlänge and Anders Goop, Department of Urban Planninginformant for the municipality of Falun with Jan Kaans, Estates department providing information to the basis for the Newsletter.Reports on the work in Borlänge and Falun municipalities have been made to Brundtland Center Denmark on three occasions; Activities 2-5, 16-12-1997, Activities 6-7, including parts of activities 8-9, 03-03-1998, and the basis for the Newsletter, 01-07-1998. The Nordic reports have been compiled at the Brundtland Center Denmark for submission to the European Commission. English has been the common language. After the report of activities 2 - 5 the participants wereinvited to a project meeting and a workshop at Brundtland Center the 23rd and 24th March 1998.This was the first occasion the participants in the project met and the network thus took a moreconcrete form. It also was decided that the next meeting should be in Borlänge in August 1998,with Borlänge Energi and Solar Energy Research Center SERC as organisers. As BrundtlandCentre Denmark was wound up for financial reasons, the project meeting in Borlänge wascancelled.Compilation of the Final Report was carried out by Esbensen Consultants in October 1998Future development of the networkIt is intended to continue the work with the Brundtland City Network as an “EU Thermie Bproject”and the network will be enlarged with the addition of four new Brundtland Cities from Austria, Germany, Italy and Great Britain. In addition the village of Putja in Estonia will join the network but this will be financed by the EU-Phare programme.

Simulazione numerica di fenomeni aeroelastici con applicazione alle strutture civili

Il presente lavoro tratta lo studio dei fenomeni aeroelastici di interazione fra fluido e struttura, con il fine di provare a simularli mediante l’ausilio di un codice agli elementi finiti. Nel primo capitolo sono fornite alcune nozioni di fluidodinamica, in modo da rendere chiari i passaggi teorici fondamentali che portano alle equazioni di Navier-Stokes governanti il moto dei fluidi viscosi. Inoltre è illustrato il fenomeno della formazione di vortici a valle dei corpi tozzi dovuto alla separazione dello strato limite laminare, con descrizione anche di alcuni risultati ottenuti dalle simulazioni numeriche. Nel secondo capitolo vengono presi in rassegna i principali fenomeni di interazione fra fluido e struttura, cercando di metterne in luce le fondamenta della trattazione analitica e le ipotesi sotto le quali tale trattazione è valida. Chiaramente si tratta solo di una panoramica che non entra in merito degli sviluppi della ricerca più recente ma fornisce le basi per affrontare i vari problemi di instabilità strutturale dovuti a un particolare fenomeno di interazione con il vento. Il terzo capitolo contiene una trattazione più approfondita del fenomeno di instabilità per flutter. Tra tutti i fenomeni di instabilità aeroelastica delle strutture il flutter risulta il più temibile, soprattutto per i ponti di grande luce. Per questo si è ritenuto opportuno dedicargli un capitolo, in modo da illustrare i vari procedimenti con cui si riesce a determinare analiticamente la velocità critica di flutter di un impalcato da ponte, a partire dalle funzioni sperimentali denominate derivate di flutter. Al termine del capitolo è illustrato il procedimento con cui si ricavano sperimentalmente le derivate di flutter di un impalcato da ponte. Nel quarto capitolo è presentato l’esempio di studio dell’impalcato del ponte Tsing Ma ad Hong Kong. Sono riportati i risultati analitici dei calcoli della velocità di flutter e di divergenza torsionale dell’impalcato e i risultati delle simulazioni numeriche effettuate per stimare i coefficienti aerodinamici statici e il comportamento dinamico della struttura soggetta all’azione del vento. Considerazioni e commenti sui risultati ottenuti e sui metodi di modellazione numerica adottati completano l’elaborato.

Progression of atherosclerosis in ApoE-deficient mice that express distinct molecular forms of TNF-alpha

TNFalpha (TNF) critically regulates inflammation-driven atherosclerosis. Because the transmembrane (tmTNF) and soluble (sTNF) forms of TNF possess distinct immuno-modulatory properties, we hypothesized that they might differentially regulate atherosclerosis progression. Three groups of male ApoE(-/-) mice were studied: one expressing wild-type TNF (WT-TNF); one expressing exclusively a mutated non-cleavable form of TNF (KI-TNF); and one deficient in TNF (KO-TNF). Mice aged 5 weeks were fed the high-fat diet for 5 (T5) and 15 weeks (T15) or a standard chow diet for 15 weeks. At T5, in mice fed the high-fat diet, no significant differences in lesion area were observed among the three groups, either in valves or in aortas. At T15, lesion areas in valves were significantly lower in KO-TNF mice compared with those in WT-TNF mice, whereas in KI-TNF mice, they were intermediate between KO- and WT-TNF mice but not significantly different from these two groups. In aortas, lesions in KI-TNF were comparable to those of KO-TNF, both being significantly lower than those in WT-TNF. Theses differences were not linked to circulating lipids, or to macrophage, actin, and collagen contents of lesions. At T15, in mice fed the chow diet, lesion areas in valves and the aortic arch were not significantly different between the three groups. Levels of IL-6, IFNgamma, IL-10, and Foxp3 mRNAs in spleens and production of IL-6, IL-10, MCP-1, RANTES, and TNFR-2 by peritoneal macrophages at T15 of the high-fat diet showed a decrease in pro-inflammatory status, more marked in KO-TNF than in KI-TNF mice. Apoptosis was reduced only in KO-TNF mice. In conclusion, these data show that TNF effects on atherosclerosis development are detectable at stages succeeding fatty streaks and that wild-type TNF is superior to tmTNF alone in promoting atherosclerosis. TNF-dependent progression of atherosclerosis is probably linked to the differential production of pro-inflammatory mediators whether tmTNF is preponderant or essentially cleaved. Copyright (c) 2008 Pathological Society of Great Britain and Ireland. Published by John Wiley ; Sons, Ltd.