Influência das principais commodities agropecuárias e de variáveis macroeconômicas sobre os preços da terra agrícola no Brasil

Este trabalho tem como proposta investigar como o preço de terras de uso rural no Brasil é afetado pelos preços e exportações das principais commodities agropecuárias, bem como por variáveis macroeconômicas, como taxa básica de juros, taxa de câmbio, taxa de inflação e disponibilidade de crédito agrícola. Para tal foram consideradas as produções agrícola de algodão, café, cana-de-açúcar (e seus principais produtos açúcar e etanol), milho e soja, a produção pecuária de carne bovina e a produção industrial de celulose de fibra curta com foco em sua principal matéria prima, os plantios reflorestados de eucalipto. Em linha com estudos anteriores, foi encontrada evidência empírica de que o preço da terra possui cointegração com algumas das variáveis agrícolas, pecuárias e florestais citadas, em especial em estados com maior vocação agropecuária e/ou para silvicultura. Quanto às variáveis macroeconômicas, apenas a taxa básica de juros apresentou cointegração com o preço de terras para todos os estados avaliados, taxa de câmbio e disponibilidade de crédito rural não aparecem como variáveis estatisticamente significantes. Conclui-se que, para estados com notável participação na balança comercial brasileira de produtos agrossilvipastoris, é possível obter um modelo de equilibro de longo prazo entre o preço da terra de uso rural e as variáveis destacadas acima, de modo que investidores do setor possam utilizá-lo como ferramenta de projeção no auxílio da tomada de decisão além de avaliar potenciais impactos no valor de seus ativos A inovação do presente estudo está em testar as hipóteses de cointegração para cada um dos estados da federação.

Does active management add value?: the Brazilian mutual fund market

Does active management add or destroy value? With a sample of 699 with four different main categories: stocks, fixed income, hedge and exchange rate mutual funds we conclude that the active management add value to investors in stocks and hedge funds. But in fixed income mutual funds the evidence is against the active management. We also analyze the determinants of significant alphas. For stocks and hedge funds the evidence suggests that old, big and active funds generate biggest alphas. In fixed income funds the evidence is not clear, only a positive relationship between size and alphas could be found.

O “elo perdido” entre a organização mundial do comércio e o fundo monetário internacional

One of the main objectives of the Bretton Woods negotiations was to guarantee the firm control over competitive exchange rate devaluations, which had worsened the effects of the economic crisis of the 1930s. The par value exchange rate system was thus created, representing a link between the international financial system and the international trading system, guaranteeing, to the latter, the neutrality of the currency issue. The present article analyses how the institutional revolutions suffered by the IMF ended up representing the loss of this link and discusses its consequences to the WTO

Balance of payments dominance: its implications for macroeconomic policy

This paper defines “balance of payments dominance” as a macroeconomic regime in which the short-term macroeconomic dynamics is essentially determined by external shocks, positive or negative. It argues that this is the predominant regime in emerging and developing countries. Trade shocks play an important role but the major procyclical shocks are associated with boom-bust cycles in external financing. Policy challenges are associated not only with the management of such shocks but also with the need to enhance the space for countercyclical macroeconomic policies, as boom-bust cycles tend to pressure macroeconomic policies to behave in a procyclical way. Under these conditions, the best bet is to design policies to reduce external vulnerabilities through a mix of administered exchange rate policies, very active foreign exchange reserve management, reduced reliance on external borrowing, and macroprudential regulations, including those directly affecting capital flows. Countercyclical fiscal policy can also play a role but face strong economic and political economy challenges.

Europe’s financial crisis: the Euro’s flawed design and the consequences of lack of a government banker

This paper argues the euro zone requires a government banker that manages the bond market and helps finance country budget deficits. The euro solved Europe’s problem of exchange rate speculation by creating a unified currency managed by a single central bank, but in doing so it replaced the exchange rate speculation problem with bond market speculation. Remedying this requires a central bank that acts as government banker and maintains bond interest rates at sustainable levels. Because the euro is a monetary union, this must be done in a way that both avoids favoring individual countries and avoids creating incentives for irresponsible country fiscal policy that leads to “bail-outs”. The paper argues this can be accomplished via a European Public Finance Authority (EPFA) that issues public debt which the European Central Bank (ECB) is allowed to trade. The debate over the euro’s financial architecture has significant political implications. The current neoliberal inspired architecture, which imposes a complete separation between the central bank and public finances, puts governments under continuous financial pressures. That will make it difficult to maintain the European social democratic welfare state. This gives a political reason for reforming the euro and creating an EPFA that supplements the economic case for reform.

Balance of payments dominance : its implocations for macroeconomic policy

This paper defines “balance of payments dominance” as a macroeconomic regime in which the short-term macroeconomic dynamics is essentially determined by external shocks, positive or negative. It argues that this is the predominant regime in emerging and developing countries. Trade shocks play an important role but the major procyclical shocks are associated with boom-bust cycles in external financing. Policy challenges are associated not only with the management of such shocks but also with the need to enhance the space for countercyclical macroeconomic policies, as boom-bust cycles tend to pressure macroeconomic policies to behave in a procyclical way. Under these conditions, the best bet is to design policies to reduce external vulnerabilities through a mix of administered exchange rate flexibility, very active foreign exchange reserve management, reduced reliance on external borrowing, and macroprudential regulations, including those directly affecting capital flows. Countercyclical fiscal policy can also play a role but face strong economic and political economy challenges.

Macroeconomic constraints to growth of Brazilian economy diagnosis and some policy proposals

The recent process of accelerated expansion of the Brazilian economy was driven by exports and fixed capital formation. Although the pace of growth was more robust than in the 1990´s, we can still witness the existence of certain macroeconomic constraints to its continuation in the long run such as, for instance, the exchange rate overvaluation in particular since 2005, and in general the modus operandi of monetary policy. Such constraints may jeopardize the sustainability of the current pace of growth. Therefore, we argue that Brazil still lies in a trap made up of high interest and low exchange rates. The elimination of the exchange rate misalignment would bring about a great increase in the rate of interest, which on its turn would impact negatively upon investment and hence upon the sustainability of long run economic growth. We outline a set of policy measures to eliminate such a trap, in particular, the adoption of an implicit target for the exchange rate, capital controls and the abandonment of the present regime of inflation targeting. Recent events seem to go in this direction.

Avaliação microeconômica do comportamento de investidores frente às alterações de condições de mercado : os determinantes da não racionalidade dos investidores no mercado de fundos brasileiros

Neste trabalho buscamos identificar os principais determinantes da demanda por fundos de investimento no Brasil através do modelo Logit, que é bastante utilizado na teoria das organizações industriais. Sempre que possível realizamos “links” com os principais conceitos de finanças comportamentais. Assim, conseguimos aclarar as principais variáveis que impactam as variações de “market-share” na indústria de fundos de investimento. Concluímos que os principais indicadores observados pelos investidores no momento de tomada de decisão são o CDI, a inflação, a taxa real de juros, a variação do dólar e da bolsa de valores, por outro lado a rentabilidade acumulada dos últimos três meses é fator decisivo para que o investidor aplique ou resgate um fundo de investimento. Variáveis de risco e de retorno esperado que imaginávamos ter forte impacto, não se mostraram significativas para as variações de “share”.

A saúde psíquica de quem faz saúde: uma análise crítica sobre a humanização direcionada ao profissional de saúde

It is noticeable that pressure, tension and overwork are frequent in health professionals routine. The work related to the ward area demands deep attention and surveillance. Because of that, it is essential to have a specific look at the humanization directed at health professionals, considering that taking care of other human beings is the essence of their job. This study has analyzed the psychic health levels, as well as the stress health professionals are submitted to, providing a debate about the humanization in 06 public hospitals (03 of them awarded by actions of humanization, and 03 not awarded) in Rio Grande do Norte state, Brazil. A study with 126 active health professionals (doctors, nurses, psychologists, nutritionists and social workers) in ward areas in their respective institutions was carried out. The thesis presented, with multi-disciplinary characteristic, counted on the support of statisticians (to calculate samples and data analysis), psychologists, social workers and administrators (linked to the human resources sector in each hospital). A cross-sectional study was performed, taking into consideration both quantitative and qualitative factors. The tools used for that were a semistructured questionnaire with socio-demographic characteristics, work and humanization; Lipp's Stress Symptoms Inventory for Adults (ISSL), and the Goldberg s General Health Questionnaire (QSG). The workers are predominantly women (84,9%), married (54,8%), between 46 and 55 years old (40,5%), working in the same institution for more than 20 years (22,2%), and between 16 and 20 years (20,6%), respectively. They work 40 hours a week (71,4%) and have multiple jobs (61,9%). Although most of these individuals global psychic health is in a good level, there are a significant number of people that is gradually getting worse concerning psychic stress (F1) showed by QSG (54,7%), and stress showed by ISSL(42,1%). Observing the categories, nurses (41,5%). Nutritionists (20,8%), doctors and social workers (18,9%), were among the most affected. About general health (F6), 63% of the awarded hospitals and 70% of the not awarded ones, presented good health levels (ranging from 5 to 50%). It was also noticed that, in the groups mentioned above, 25 and 20% respectively, were inserted in scores between 55 to 90%, what means that they are in worsening phase. The fact that the hospital is awarded or well recognized doesn t interfere in health professionals stress level and in their psychic health. Through what was heard from these individuals, it was possible to verify that they know little about humanization, once few of them identify or know that the service they offer is in an adoption process by Ministerial Policies. It was also detected the necessity of developing actions aimed at worker s health. Such results showed the importance of have more investments in programs that are directed to workers well-being, because they deal with other people s health and it is known that it is difficult for them to offer high-quality assistance if there are not suitable physical, psychological and material conditions to help them develop their jobs. As a warning, it is fair to say that investments in actions that provide humanized care to health professionals, mainly concerning preventive care for their health and life quality in their work

Relações internacionais: o comércio exterior do Brasil e Rio Grande do Norte no período de 1999 a 2008

The period post-war promoted several changes in relations economic, political and social world. Since then, a new division international of labor has delineated, with the great growth of Asian countries. In the field of international relations, the world still appears to transition is not completed because the old institutions were not replaced by new ones and the power of the United States as a major capitalist country remains unshaken, even with the emergence and strengthening of new economic global blocs. With globalization, Brazil emerges with more intensity in the face of new issues global, although its share in transactions trade global hasn‟t changed accordingly. In this sense, the objective of this dissertation is to examine, in a descriptive and critical the development of international relations and trade of Brazil and Rio Grande do Norte with the main blocs in the world from 1999 to 2008. As a secondary objective: to identify the assumptions theoretical that underpinned the decisions governments of the FHC and Lula, in particular, the interference of these terms in international relations and foreign trade. Adopted as the procedure methodological the literature review of the subject, as well as collection and processing of the data of foreign trade. During the Cardoso government has undergone the substantial growth in imports, as part of the economic policy of anti-inflationary, generating large deficits trade. From the first to the second term, with the inflection of exchange rate policy the country has resumed surpluses trade. The choice of government of the autonomy participation increased the relative share of the traditional blocks in total foreign trade and reduced the share of MERCOSUL. In the Lula government, there is the maintenance of some elements of the economic policy of the previous government and the partial shift in the conduct of foreign policy, with the option of autonomy through diversification, raising its stake on the blocks and other emerging countries in total foreign trade Brazilian and reducing the contribution of the traditional blocks such as NAFTA and the European Union. A trend observed in the previous government and deepened in the Lula government was the growth in commodity exports and the decline of manufactured products, confirming the model of conservative insertion of Brazilian exports. The Rio Grande do Norte followed the trend Brazilian in the growth of foreign trade, including in participating conservative, given that the products exported by the state are basically coming from horticulture irrigated and agribusiness. However, in the aspect of destination export, the state followed trajectory distinct from that in the Lula government, with the deepening of trade relations with traditional blocks, especially with the European Union and NAFTA

Enxertia em plantas de pimentão no controle da murcha de fitóftora em ambiente protegido

Avaliou-se a viabilidade de utilização da enxertia em plantas de pimentão (Capsicum annuum, L.), visando o controle da murcha de fitóftora. A pesquisa foi conduzida de setembro de 2000 a julho de 2001, na UNESP, Botucatu, em ambiente protegido. Adotou-se o delineamento experimental de blocos ao acaso, com 4 repetições e 5 plantas por parcela. Foram utilizados dois porta-enxertos resistentes a Phytophthora capsici, híbridos F1 de Capsicum annuum, e três híbridos comerciais suscetíveis (Elisa, Margarita e Magali-R). A enxertia foi realizada quando porta-enxertos e enxertos apresentavam respectivamente sete e três folhas verdadeiras, pelo método de garfagem fenda simples. Aos 14 dias após o transplante das mudas foi feita a inoculação do fungo, utilizando sementes de trigo infestadas pelo patógeno, depositadas ao redor do colo da planta. Quatro dias após a inoculação, e a partir daí a cada 15 dias, foram feitas avaliações que confirmaram a resistência dos porta-enxertos e a suscetibilidade das plantas não enxertadas. Observou-se bom nível de compatibilidade de enxertia em todas as combinações, precocidade de florescimento das plantas não enxertadas, manutenção de resistência à doença pelas plantas enxertadas durante todo o período e variações na altura das plantas em algumas combinações. Com relação à produção, verificou-se que os frutos mantiveram as características fenotípicas de cada híbrido, revelando que não houve interferência dos porta-enxertos neste aspecto. Concluiu-se haver viabilidade técnica de utilização da enxertia no controle da murcha de fitóftora em ambiente protegido.

Ingestão de fibra alimentar e tempo de trânsito colônico em pacientes com constipação funcional

RACIONAL: Pacientes com constipação funcional que não melhoram com suplementação de fibras dietéticas, representam importante problema clínico. OBJETIVOS: Avaliar as relações entre as quantidades de fibras ingeridas, intensidade da constipação e o tempo de trânsito colônico em pacientes com constipação funcional. MÉTODOS: Foram avaliados 30 pacientes constipados funcionais, sem melhoras após suplementação dietética com fibras e 18 pessoas controle, sadias, sem queixas digestivas, utilizando inquéritos individuais quanto à ingestão de fibras e a intensidade da constipação e, por meio da técnica dos marcadores radiopaco, o tempo de trânsito colônico, total e segmentar. RESULTADOS: Apesar da maior ingestão diária de fibras (26,3 ± 12,9 g, constipados x 9,3 ± 5,2 g, controles), os sintomas da constipação mostraram-se intensos nos constipados (escore médio = 21,3 ± 4,07). O tempo normal para o trânsito colônico foi de 58,8h. O trânsito colônico total, em média, foi mais lento nos constipados (41,0 ± 22,8h, constipados x 21,8 ± 18,5h, controles). Constipados com trânsito lento (>58,8h) apresentaram inércia colônica (oito), obstrução de saída (um) e lentificação no cólon esquerdo (um). Constipados com trânsito normal (<58,8h), apresentaram lentificações isoladas no cólon direito (nove), no cólon esquerdo (três) e no segmento retossigmoideano (oito). Não houve correlação entre a quantidade ingerida de fibra, intensidade da constipação e tempo de trânsito colônico nos constipados funcionais. CONCLUSÕES: em constipados funcionais a gravidade da constipação não depende apenas da ingestão de fibras, que, também não é a única contributiva para as variações no tempo de trânsito colônico. Este diferencia os pacientes normais dos constipados e nestes, aqueles com trânsito alterado que exigem abordagens diferentes da suplementação de fibras.

Localização de faltas em linhas de transmissão usando morfologia matemática

This work an algorithm for fault location is proposed. It contains the following functions: fault detection, fault classification and fault location. Mathematical Morphology is used to process currents obtained in the monitored terminals. Unlike Fourier and Wavelet transforms that are usually applied to fault location, the Mathematical Morphology is a non-linear operation that uses only basic operation (sum, subtraction, maximum and minimum). Thus, Mathematical Morphology is computationally very efficient. For detection and classification functions, the Morphological Wavelet was used. On fault location module the Multiresolution Morphological Gradient was used to detect the traveling waves and their polarities. Hence, recorded the arrival in the two first traveling waves incident at the measured terminal and knowing the velocity of propagation, pinpoint the fault location can be estimated. The algorithm was applied in a 440 kV power transmission system, simulated on ATP. Several fault conditions where studied and the following parameters were evaluated: fault location, fault type, fault resistance, fault inception angle, noise level and sampling rate. The results show that the application of Mathematical Morphology in faults location is very promising

Risco de queda em idosos da comunidade: avaliação com o teste Timed up and go

Risco de queda em idosos pode ser avaliado por meio de um teste simples de mobilidade. OBJETIVO: Avaliar o equilíbrio de idosos usando o teste Timed up and go. MÉTODO: Os indivíduos tiveram o tempo medido desde o momento em que se levantaram de uma cadeira, caminharam 3 metros para a frente e retornaram à cadeira. Os idosos também responderam questões sobre desequilíbrio, tontura e queda. RESULTADOS: Cerca de 69% dos sujeitos realizaram o teste em até 19 segundos. Houve correlação significativa entre desequilíbrio, tempo dispendido e queda, assim como entre tontura e queda. CONCLUSÃO: A maior parte dos idosos mostrou baixos valores no teste, o que sugere boa mobilidade funcional. Entretanto, um número expressivo de indivíduos com valores mais elevados estão, provavelmente, mais propensos a quedas e à dependência menor ou maior nas atividades da vida diária.