988 resultados para Gaussian assumption


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Animals may use plant compounds to defend themselves against parasites. Wood ants, Formica paralugubris, incorporate pieces of solidified conifer resin into their nests. This behaviour inhibits the growth of bacteria and fungi in nest material and protects the ants against some detrimental microorganisms. Here, we studied the resin-collecting behaviour of ants under field and laboratory conditions. First, we focused on an important assumption of the self-medication hypothesis, which is that the animals deliberately choose the active plant material. In field cafeteria tests, the ants indeed showed a strong preference for resin over twigs and stones, which are building materials commonly encountered in their environment. We detected seasonal variation in the choice of ants: the preference for resin over twigs was more pronounced in spring than in summer, whereas in autumn the ants collected twigs and resin at equal rates. Second, we found almost similar seasonal patterns when comparing the collecting rates of pieces of wood that had been impregnated with turpentine (a distillate of oleoresin) and untreated pieces of wood, which reveals that the preference for resin is based on odour cues. Third, we tested whether the collection of resin is prophylactic or therapeutic. We found that the relative collection rate of resin versus stones did not depend on an experimental infection with the entomopathogenic fungus Metarhizium anisopliae in laboratory colonies. Together, these results show that the ants deliberately choose the resin and suggest that resin collection is prophylactic rather than therapeutic.

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This paper aims to provide empirical support for the use of the principal-agent framework in the analysis of public sector and public policies. After reviewing the different conditions to be met for a relevant analysis of the relationship between population and government using the principal-agent theory, our paper focuses on the assumption of conflicting goals between the principal and the agent. A principal-agent analysis assumes in effect that inefficiencies may arise because principal and agent pursue different goals. Using data collected during an amalgamation project of two Swiss municipalities, we show the existence of a gap between the goals of the population and those of the government. Consequently, inefficiencies as predicted by the principal-agent model may arise during the implementation of a public policy, i.e. an amalgamation project. In a context of direct democracy where policies are regularly subjected to referendum, the conflict of objectives may even lead to a total failure of the policy at the polls.

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BACKGROUND: Despite recent advances in acute stroke treatment, basilar artery occlusion (BAO) is associated with a death or disability rate of close to 70%. Randomised trials have shown the safety and efficacy of intravenous thrombolysis (IVT) given within 4.5 h and have shown promising results of intra-arterial thrombolysis given within 6 h of symptom onset of acute ischaemic stroke, but these results do not directly apply to patients with an acute BAO because only few, if any, of these patients were included in randomised acute stroke trials.Recently the results of the Basilar Artery International Cooperation Study (BASICS), a prospective registry of patients with acute symptomatic BAO challenged the often-held assumption that intra-arterial treatment (IAT) is superior to IVT. Our observations in the BASICS registry underscore that we continue to lack a proven treatment modality for patients with an acute BAO and that current clinical practice varies widely. DESIGN: BASICS is a randomised controlled, multicentre, open label, phase III intervention trial with blinded outcome assessment, investigating the efficacy and safety of additional IAT after IVT in patients with BAO. The trial targets to include 750 patients, aged 18 to 85 years, with CT angiography or MR angiography confirmed BAO treated with IVT. Patients will be randomised between additional IAT followed by optimal medical care versus optimal medical care alone. IVT has to be initiated within 4.5 h from estimated time of BAO and IAT within 6 h. The primary outcome parameter will be favourable outcome at day 90 defined as a modified Rankin Scale score of 0-3. DISCUSSION: The BASICS registry was observational and has all the limitations of a non-randomised study. As the IAT approach becomes increasingly available and frequently utilised an adequately powered randomised controlled phase III trial investigating the added value of this therapy in patients with an acute symptomatic BAO is needed (clinicaltrials.gov: NCT01717755).

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BACKGROUND: Nicotine dependence is the major obstacle for smokers who want to quit. Guidelines have identified five effective first-line therapies, four nicotine replacement therapies (NRTs)--gum, patch, nasal spray and inhaler--and bupropion. Studying the extent to which these various treatments are cost-effective requires additional research. OBJECTIVES: To determine cost-effectiveness (CE) ratios of pharmacotherapies for nicotine dependence provided by general practitioners (GPs) during routine visits as an adjunct to cessation counselling. METHODS: We used a Markov model to generate two cohorts of one-pack-a-day smokers: (1) the reference cohort received only cessation counselling from a GP during routine office visits; (2) the second cohort received the same counselling plus an offer to use a pharmacological treatment to help them quit smoking. The effectiveness of adjunctive therapy was expressed in terms of the resultant differential in mortality rate between the two cohorts. Data on the effectiveness of therapies came from meta-analyses, and we used odds ratio for quitting as the measure of effectiveness. The costs of pharmacotherapies were based on the cost of the additional time spent by GPs offering, prescribing and following-up treatment, and on the retail prices of the therapies. We used the third-party-payer perspective. Results are expressed as the incremental cost per life-year saved. RESULTS: The cost per life-year saved for only counselling ranged from Euro 385 to Euro 622 for men and from Euro 468 to Euro 796 for women. The CE ratios for the five pharmacological treatments varied from Euro 1768 to Euro 6879 for men, and from Euro 2146 to Euro 8799 for women. Significant variations in CE ratios among the five treatments were primarily due to differences in retail prices. The most cost-effective treatments were bupropion and the patch, and, then, in descending order, the spray, the inhaler and, lastly, gum. Differences in CE between men and women across treatments were due to the shape of their respective mortality curve. The lowest CE ratio in men was for the 45- to 49-year-old group and for women in the 50- to 54-year-old group. Sensitivity analysis showed that changes in treatment efficacy produced effects only for less-well proven treatments (spray, inhaler, and bupropion) and revealed a strong influence of the discount rate and natural quit rate on the CE of pharmacological treatments. CONCLUSION: The CE of first-line treatments for nicotine dependence varied widely with age and sex and was sensitive to the assumption for the natural quit rate. Bupropion and the nicotine patch were the two most cost-effective treatments.

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PURPOSE OF REVIEW: The assumption that fructose may be toxic and involved in the pathogenesis of noncommunicable diseases such as obesity, diabetes mellitus, dyslipidemia, and even cancer has resulted in the call for public health action, such as introducing taxes on sweetened beverages. This review evaluates the scientific basis for such action. RECENT FINDINGS: Although some studies hint towards some potential adverse effects of excessive fructose consumption especially when combined with excess energy intake, the results from clinical trials do not support a significant detrimental effect of fructose on metabolic health when consumed as part of a weight-maintaining diet in amounts consistent with the average-estimated fructose consumption in Western countries. However, definitive studies are missing. SUMMARY: Public health policies to eliminate or limit fructose in the diet should be considered premature. Instead, efforts should be made to promote a healthy lifestyle that includes physical activity and nutritious foods while avoiding intake of excess calories until solid evidence to support action against fructose is available. Public health is almost certainly to benefit more from policies that are aimed at promoting what is known to be good than from policies that are prohibiting what is not (yet) known to be bad.

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Obesity is considered a major health problem. However, mechanisms involved and its comorbidities are not elucidated. Recent theories concerning the causes of obesity have focused on a limit to the functional capacity of adipose tissue, comparing it with other vital organs. This assumption has been the central point of interest in our laboratory. We proposed that the failure of adipose tissue is initiated by the difficulty of this tissue to increase its cellularity due to excess in fat contribution, owing to genetic or environmental factors. Nevertheless, why the adipose tissue reduces its capacity to make new adipocytes via mesenchymal cells of the stroma has not yet been elucidated. Thus, we suggest that this tissue ceases fulfilling its main function, the storage of excess fat, thereby affecting some of the key factors involved in lipogenesis, some of which are reviewed in this paper (PPARγ, ROR1, FASN, SCD1, Rab18, BrCa1, ZAG, and FABP4). On the other hand, mechanisms involved in adipose tissue expandability are also impaired, predominating hypertrophy via an increase in apoptosis and a decrease in adipogenesis and angiogenesis. However, adipose tissue failure is only part of this great orchestra, only a chapter of this nightmare.

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The article discusses the behavioral aspects that affect the entrepreneurs' decision making under the Knightian uncertainty approach. Since the profit arising from entrepreneurial activity represents the reward of an immeasurable and subjective risk, it has been hypothesized that innovative entrepreneurs have excessive optimism and confidence, which leads them to invest in high-risk activities. A behavioral model of decision making under uncertainty is used to test the hypothesis of overconfidence. This model is based on Bayesian inference, which allows us to model the assumption that these entrepreneurs are overconfident. We conclude that, under the hypothesis of overconfidence, these entrepreneurs decide to invest, despite the fact that the expected utility model indicates the contrary. This theoretical finding could explain why there are a large number of business failures in the first years of activity.

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The end of the Cold War did not bring about an end to violence in Central America. Today, so-called non-political violence continues to worsen. Academics and public policymakers are frequently influenced by the assumption that there is a causal relationship between the political violence of the 1980s and the non-political violence of today. By looking at the cases of El Salvador and Honduras, this working paper seeks to systematize existing claims about the causal relationship between past and present violence into two approaches. Our research shows that high levels of prolonged political violence, along with an abundance of firearms, can lead to high levels of prolonged non-political violence but not in the ways most often cited in existing literature. We propose a new model to better understand the connection between past and present violence and recommend indicators that can be used to measure variations in violence over time in contexts of protracted non-political violence.

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ABSTRACT This paper addresses the changes in university-industry relations in Brazil regarding innovation activities. It is based on a survey of articles published in major national journals or presented at the most relevant Brazilian and regional conferences, between 1980 and 2012. The year 1980 was chosen due to the creation of the Technological Innovation Offices (NITs), which was the first government initiative to encourage knowledge transfer from universities to companies; the second was the Innovation Act of 2004. Our assumption was that after the Act the number of academic papers on this subject would increase, bringing new ideas and propositions of models to enhance this relationship. The methodology employed a qualitative, exploratory approach, using bibliographical research and a bibliometric analysis of 247 papers. Literature review of international studies shows the discussion of problems and suggestions for improvements, while in Brazil there is still a debate on whether this collaboration should occur, and if this is a legitimate role for the university. Despite the numerical growth, the content analysis showed few papers on new configurations and procedures for partnership management. We conclude that university-industry relations are not a regular and totally accepted process in Brazilian public universities, which reflect an ideological bias against cooperation with firms.

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New zircon U-Pb ages are proposed for late Early and Middle Triassic volcanic ash layers from the Luolou and Baifeng formations (northwestern Guangxi, South China). These ages are based on analyses of single, thermally annealed and chemically abraded zircons. Calibration with ammonoid ages indicate a 250.6 +/- 0.5 Ma age for the early Spathian Tirolites/Columbites beds, a 248.1 +/- 0.4 Ma age for the late Spathian Neopopanoceras haugi Zone, a 246.9 +/- 0.4 Ma age for the early middle Anisian Acrochordiceras hyatti Zone, and a 244.6 +/- 0.5 Ma age for the late middle Anisian Balatonites shoshonensis Zone. The new dates and previously published U-Pb ages indicate a duration of ca. 3 my for the Spathian, and minimal durations of 4.5 +/- 0.6 my for the Early Triassic and of 6.6+0.7/-0.9 my for the Anisian. The new Spathian dates are in a better agreement with a 252.6 +/- 0.2 Ma age than with a 251.4 +/- 0.3 Ma age for the Permian-Triassic boundary. These dates also highlight the extremely uneven duration of the four Early Triassic substages (Griesbachian, Dienerian, Smithian, and Spathian), of which the Spathian exceeds half of the duration of the entire Early Triassic. The simplistic assumption of equal duration of the four Early Triassic subdivisions is no longer tenable for the reconstruction of recovery patterns following the end Permian mass extinction. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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In Arabidopsis thaliana, gene expression level polymorphisms (ELPs) between natural accessions that exhibit simple, single locus inheritance are promising quantitative trait locus (QTL) candidates to explain phenotypic variability. It is assumed that such ELPs overwhelmingly represent regulatory element polymorphisms. However, comprehensive genome-wide analyses linking expression level, regulatory sequence and gene structure variation are missing, preventing definite verification of this assumption. Here, we analyzed ELPs observed between the Eil-0 and Lc-0 accessions. Compared with non-variable controls, 5' regulatory sequence variation in the corresponding genes is indeed increased. However, approximately 42% of all the ELP genes also carry major transcription unit deletions in one parent as revealed by genome tiling arrays, representing a >4-fold enrichment over controls. Within the subset of ELPs with simple inheritance, this proportion is even higher and deletions are generally more severe. Similar results were obtained from analyses of the Bay-0 and Sha accessions, using alternative technical approaches. Collectively, our results suggest that drastic structural changes are a major cause for ELPs with simple inheritance, corroborating experimentally observed indel preponderance in cloned Arabidopsis QTL.

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L'activité humaine affecte particulièrement la biodiversité, qui décline à une vitesse préoccupante. Parmi les facteurs réduisant la biodiversité, on trouve les espèces envahissantes. Symptomatiques d'un monde globalisé où l'échange se fait à l'échelle de la planète, certaines espèces, animales ou végétales, sont introduites, volontairement ou accidentellement par l'activité humaine (par exemple lors des échanges commerciaux ou par les voyageurs). Ainsi, ces espèces atteignent des régions qu'elles n'auraient jamais pu coloniser naturellement. Une fois introduites, l'absence de compétiteur peut les rendre particulièrement nuisibles. Ces nuisances sont plus ou moins directes, allant de problèmes sanitaires (p. ex. les piqûres très aigües des fourmis de feu, originaires d'Amérique du Sud et colonisant à une vitesse fulgurante les USA, l'Australie ou la Chine) à des nuisances sur la biodiversité (p. ex. les ravages de la perche du Nil sur la diversité unique des poissons Cichlidés du Lac Victoria). Il est donc important de pouvoir prévenir de telles introductions. De plus, pour le biologiste, ces espèces représentent une rare occasion de pouvoir comprendre les mécanismes évolutifs et écologiques qui expliquent le succès des envahissantes dans un monde où les équilibres sont bouleversés. Les modèles de niche environnementale sont un outil particulièrement utile dans le cadre de cette problématique. En reliant des observations d'espèces aux conditions environnementales où elles se trouvent, ils peuvent prédire la distribution potentielle des envahissantes, permettant d'anticiper et de mieux limiter leur impact. Toutefois, ils reposent sur des hypothèses pas évidentes à démontrer. L'une d'entre elle étant que la niche d'une espèce reste constante dans le temps, et dans l'espace. Le premier objectif de mon travail est de comparer si la niche d'une espèce envahissante diffère entre sa distribution d'origine native et celle d'origine introduite. En étudiant 50 espèces de plantes et 168 espèces de Mammifères, je démontre que c'est le cas et que par corolaire, il est possible de prédire leurs distributions. La deuxième partie de mon travail consiste à comprendre quelles seront les interactions entre le changement climatiques et les envahissantes, afin d'estimer leur impact sous un climat réchauffé. En étudiant la distribution de 49 espèces de plantes envahissantes, je démontre que les montagnes, régions relativement préservée par ce problème, deviendront bien plus exposées aux risques d'invasions biologiques. J'expose aussi comment les interactions entre l'activité humaine, le réchauffement climatique et les espèces envahissantes menacent la vigne sauvage en Europe et propose des zones géographiques particulièrement adaptée pour sa conservation. Enfin, à une échelle beaucoup plus locale, je montre qu'il est possible d'utiliser ces modèles de niches le long d'une rivière à une échelle extrêmement fine (1 mètre), potentiellement utile pour rationnaliser des mesures de conservations sur le terrain. - Biodiversity is significantly negatively affected by human activity. Invasive species are one of the most important factors causing biodiversity's decline. Intimately linked to the era of global trade, some plant or animal species can be accidentally or casually introduced with human activity (e.g. trade or travel). In this way, these species reach areas they could never reach through natural dispersal. Once naturalized, the lack of competitors can make these species highly noxious. Their effect is more or less direct, from sanitary problems (e.g. the harmful sting of Fire Ants, originating from South America and now spreading throughout USA, China and Australia) or can affect biodiversity (e.g. the Nile perch, devastating the one of the richest hotspot of Cichlid fishes diversity in Lake Victoria). It is thus important to prevent such harmful introductions. Moreover, invasive species represent for biologists one of the rare occasions to understand the evolutionary and ecological mechanisms behind the success of invaders in a world where natural equilibrium is already disturbed. Environmental niche models are particularly useful to tackle this problematic. By relating species observation to the environmental conditions where they occur, they can predict the potential distribution of invasive species, allowing a better anticipation and thus limiting their impact. However, they rely on strong assumption, one of the most important being that the modeled niche remains constant through space and time. The first aim of my thesis is to quantify the difference between the native and the invaded niche. By investigating 50 plant and 168 mammal species, I show that the niche is at least partially conserved, supporting for reliable predictions of invasive' s potential distributions. The second aim of my thesis is to understand the possible interactions between climate change and invasive species, such as to assess their impact under a warmer climate. By studying 49 invasive plant species, I show that mountain areas, which were relatively preserved, will become more suitable for biological invasions. Additionally, I show how interactions between human activity, global warming and invasive species are threatening the wild grapevine in Europe and propose geographical areas particularly adapted for conservation measures. Finally, at a much finer scale where conservation plannings ultimately take place, I show that it is possible to model the niche at very high resolution (1 meter) in an alluvial area allowing better prioritizations for conservation.

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We present a study of the continuous-time equations governing the dynamics of a susceptible infected-susceptible model on heterogeneous metapopulations. These equations have been recently proposed as an alternative formulation for the spread of infectious diseases in metapopulations in a continuous-time framework. Individual-based Monte Carlo simulations of epidemic spread in uncorrelated networks are also performed revealing a good agreement with analytical predictions under the assumption of simultaneous transmission or recovery and migration processes

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This chapter discusses how the industrial ecological systems can help in dealing with environmental issues in developing countries, and it presents three case studies from India that highlight some of the unique environmental issues of developing world. Industrial ecology explores the assumption that the industrial system can be seen as a certain kind of ecosystem. The scope of industrial ecology goes well beyond waste exchange to the optimization of resources flowing through the economic system. Among the various specific aspects of developing countries, which have to be born in mind, is the fact that the pattern of resource flows in developing countries, and hence, the resultant environmental threat could be very different than what it is in the industrialized west. Typically, the flow of materials through the large, organized manufacturing facilities in the developing countries could be very small in relation to the overall material flow as the small, informal ?industry? plays a key role and forms a very significant portion of the economic activity. The case studies of the Tirupur textile industries, and the leather industry in India, illustrate how redefining the problem from a perspective of resource conservation, and on the basis of resource flow data could point to totally new directions for strategy planning. The case study of the Damodar Valley region amplifies the importance of looking beyond formal industry to solve an environmental problem. It shows that even for globally critical programs, such as climate change program in developing countries, it is just not enough to estimate the emissions from the formal industrial sectors.

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Classical treatments of problems of sequential mate choice assume that the distribution of the quality of potential mates is known a priori. This assumption, made for analytical purposes, may seem unrealistic, opposing empirical data as well as evolutionary arguments. Using stochastic dynamic programming, we develop a model that includes the possibility for searching individuals to learn about the distribution and in particular to update mean and variance during the search. In a constant environment, a priori knowledge of the parameter values brings strong benefits in both time needed to make a decision and average value of mate obtained. Knowing the variance yields more benefits than knowing the mean, and benefits increase with variance. However, the costs of learning become progressively lower as more time is available for choice. When parameter values differ between demes and/or searching periods, a strategy relying on fixed a priori information might lead to erroneous decisions, which confers advantages on the learning strategy. However, time for choice plays an important role as well: if a decision must be made rapidly, a fixed strategy may do better even when the fixed image does not coincide with the local parameter values. These results help in delineating the ecological-behavior context in which learning strategies may spread.