931 resultados para Future value prediction


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Background and Objectives: Some authors states that the removal of lymph node would only contribute towards assessing the lymph node status and regional disease control, without any benefit for the patients` survival. The aim of this paper was to assess the influence of the number of surgically dissected pelvic lymph nodes (PLN) on disease-free Survival. Methods: Retrospective cohort study on 42 women presenting squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) of the uterine cervix, with metastases in PLN treated by radical surgery. The Cox model was used to identify risk factors for recurrence. The model variables were adjusted for treatment-related factors (year of treatment, surgical margins and postoperative radiotherapy). The cutoff value for classifying the lymphadenectomy as comprehensive (15 PLN or more) or non-comprehensive (<15 PLN) was determined from analysis of the ROC curve. Results: Fourteen recurrences (32.6%) were recorded: three pelvic, eight distant, two both pelvic and distant, and one at an unknown location. The following risk factors for recurrence were identified: invasion of the deep third of the cervix and number of dissected lymph nodes <15. Conclusions: Deep invasion and non-comprehensive pelvic lymphadenectomy are possible risk factors for recurrence of SCC of the uterine cervix with metastases in PLN. J. Surg. Oncol. 2009;100:252-257. (C) 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

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Diagnosis of autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) may be challenging. However, early diagnosis is important because immunosuppression is life-saving. Diagnostic criteria of the International Autoimmune Hepatitis Group (IAIHG) were complex and purely meant for scientific purposes. This study of the IAIHG aims to define simplified diagnostic criteria for routine clinical practice. Candidate criteria included sex, age, autoantibodies, immunoglobutins, absence of viral hepatitis, and histology. The training set included 250 AIH patients and 193 controls from 11 centers worldwide. Scores were built from variables showing predictive ability in univariate analysis. Diagnostic value of each score was assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The best score was validated using data of an additional 109 AIH patients and 284 controls. This score included autoantibodies, immunoglobulin G, histology, and exclusion of viral hepatitis. The area under the curve for prediction of AIH was 0.946 in the training set and 0.91 in the validation set. Based on the ROC curves, two cutoff points were chosen. The score was found to have 88% sensitivity and 97% specificity (cutoff >= 6) and 81% sensitivity and 99% specificity (cutoff 2:7) in the validation set. Conclusion: A reliable diagnosis of AIH can be made using a very simple diagnostic score. We propose the diagnosis of probable AIH at a cutoff point greater than 6 points and definite AIH 7 points or higher.

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PURPOSE. To assess whether baseline Glaucoma Probability Score (GPS; HRT-3; Heidelberg Engineering, Dossenheim, Germany) results are predictive of progression in patients with suspected glaucoma. The GPS is a new feature of the confocal scanning laser ophthalmoscope that generates an operator-independent, three-dimensional model of the optic nerve head and gives a score for the probability that this model is consistent with glaucomatous damage. METHODS. The study included 223 patients with suspected glaucoma during an average follow-up of 63.3 months. Included subjects had a suspect optic disc appearance and/or elevated intraocular pressure, but normal visual fields. Conversion was defined as development of either repeatable abnormal visual fields or glaucomatous deterioration in the appearance of the optic disc during the study period. The association between baseline GPS and conversion was investigated by Cox regression models. RESULTS. Fifty-four (24.2%) eyes converted. In multivariate models, both higher values of GPS global and subjective stereophotograph assessment ( larger cup-disc ratio and glaucomatous grading) were predictive of conversion: adjusted hazard ratios (95% CI): 1.31 (1.15 - 1.50) per 0.1 higher global GPS, 1.34 (1.12 - 1.62) per 0.1 higher CDR, and 2.34 (1.22 - 4.47) for abnormal grading, respectively. No significant differences ( P > 0.05 for all comparisons) were found between the c-index values ( equivalent to area under ROC curve) for the multivariate models (0.732, 0.705, and 0.699, respectively). CONCLUSIONS. GPS values were predictive of conversion in our population of patients with suspected glaucoma. Further, they performed as well as subjective assessment of the optic disc. These results suggest that GPS could potentially replace stereophotograph as a tool for estimating the likelihood of conversion to glaucoma.

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Study design: Cross-sectional study. Objective: Pulmonary functional capacity in 23 Brazilian quadriplegic subjects (ASIA A), aged 30 (9.5) years, weight 66 (10.75) kg, height 176 (7) cm, was investigated at 42 ( 64) months postinjury. Setting: University Hospital-UNICAMP, Campinas, Brazil. Method: Subjects performed forced vital capacity ( FVC) and maximal voluntary ventilation (MVV) tests while seated in their standard wheelchairs. Forced Expired Volume after 1 s (FEV1) and FVC/FEV1 ratio were calculated from these tests. Values obtained were compared to three prediction equations from the literature that are used specifically for spinal cord subjects and include different variables in their formulae, such as age, gender, height, postinjury time and injury level. Data are expressed as median (interquartile interval). Differences between values were demonstrated by median confidence interval with significance level set at a 0.05. Results: Obtained data were statistically different from prediction equation results, with FVC 3.11 ( 0.81), 4.46 (0.28), 4.16 (0.33), 4.26 (0.42); FEV1 2.77 (1.03), 3.67 (0.21), 3.66 (0.30), 3.45 (0.39) and MVV 92 (27), 154.2 (11.9), 156.6 (14),157.3 (16.8), where the first value is obtained experimentally and the second, third and fourth values correspond to predicted values. The results obtained from spirometry test in this study differed significantly from the results obtained when prediction equations were used. Conclusion: The use of prediction equations developed to estimate pulmonary function in wheelchair users significantly overestimates pulmonary function of quadriplegic individuals with complete lesions (ASIA group A), in comparison to measured values.

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Objective: Several limitations of published bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) equations have been reported. The aims were to develop in a multiethnic, elderly population a new prediction equation and cross-validate it along with some published BIA equations for estimating fat-free mass using deuterium oxide dilution as the reference method. Design and setting: Cross-sectional study of elderly from five developing countries. Methods: Total body water (TBW) measured by deuterium dilution was used to determine fat-free mass (FFM) in 383 subjects. Anthropometric and BIA variables were also measured. Only 377 subjects were included for the analysis, randomly divided into development and cross-validation groups after stratified by gender. Stepwise model selection was used to generate the model and Bland Altman analysis was used to test agreement. Results: FFM = 2.95 - 3.89 (Gender) + 0.514 (Ht(2)/Z) + 0.090 (Waist) + 0.156 (Body weight). The model fit parameters were an R(2), total F-Ratio, and the SEE of 0.88, 314.3, and 3.3, respectively. None of the published BIA equations met the criteria for agreement. The new BIA equation underestimated FFM by just 0.3 kg in the cross-validation sample. The mean of the difference between FFM by TBW and the new BIA equation were not significantly different; 95% of the differences were between the limits of agreement of -6.3 to 6.9 kg of FFM. There was no significant association between the mean of the differences and their averages (r = 0.008 and p = 0.2). Conclusions: This new BIA equation offers a valid option compared with some of the current published BIA equations to estimate FFM in elderly subjects from five developing countries.