939 resultados para Extreme Value Theory


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Observations of an insect's movement lead to theory on the insect's flight behaviour and the role of movement in the species' population dynamics. This theory leads to predictions of the way the population changes in time under different conditions. If a hypothesis on movement predicts a specific change in the population, then the hypothesis can be tested against observations of population change. Routine pest monitoring of agricultural crops provides a convenient source of data for studying movement into a region and among fields within a region. Examples of the use of statistical and computational methods for testing hypotheses with such data are presented. The types of questions that can be addressed with these methods and the limitations of pest monitoring data when used for this purpose are discussed. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

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In this paper an approach to extreme event control in wastewater treatment plant operation by use of automatic supervisory control is discussed. The framework presented is based on the fact that different operational conditions manifest themselves as clusters in a multivariate measurement space. These clusters are identified and linked to specific and corresponding events by use of principal component analysis and fuzzy c-means clustering. A reduced system model is assigned to each type of extreme event and used to calculate appropriate local controller set points. In earlier work we have shown that this approach is applicable to wastewater treatment control using look-up tables to determine current set points. In this work we focus on the automatic determination of appropriate set points by use of steady state and dynamic predictions. The performance of a relatively simple steady-state supervisory controller is compared with that of a model predictive supervisory controller. Also, a look-up table approach is included in the comparison, as it provides a simple and robust alternative to the steady-state and model predictive controllers, The methodology is illustrated in a simulation study.

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We examine the potential impact of interconnectivity of value chain partnerships through electronic means (e-business practices) on the management of Public Sector Agriculture R&D in Australia. We review the changing forms of managing research and development, the forces driving these changes, and R&D processes that are theoretically consistent with the move towards value chain involvement and the increase in active constituents in Public Sector Agriculture R&D. We then explore the potential of emerging e-business models to change the patterns of inter-connectivity, speed and omnipresence of partners in the value chain. Three e-business R&D management practices are identified that provide the prerequisite flexibility necessary to take advantage of opportunistic markets. These R&D business practices are: compressing R&D to reduce time to market, fostering co-development to enter a market at the last moment and building flexible products that allow adjustment at the last possible moment. Some fundamental reallocation of existing resources will be required to meet these markets. Implications of these e-business practices for R&D management are discussed.

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The exact description of the thermodynamics of solutions has been used to describe, without approximation, the distribution of all the components of an incompressible solution in a centrifuge cell at sedimentation equilibrium. Thermodynamic parameters describing the interactions between solute components of known molar mass can be obtained by direct analysis of the experimental data. Interpretation of the measured thermodynamic parameters in terms of molecular interactions requires that an arbitrary distinction be made between nonassociative forces, like hard-sphere volume-exclusion and mean-field electrostatic repulsion or attraction, and specific short-range forces of association that give rise to the formation of molecular aggregates. Provided the former can be accounted for adequately, the effects of the latter can be elucidated in the form of good estimates of the equilibrium constants for the reactions of aggregation.

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We study difference equations which arise as discrete approximations to two-point boundary value problems for systems of second-order ordinary differential equations. We formulate conditions which guarantee a priori bounds on first differences of solutions to the discretized problem. We establish existence results for solutions to the discretized boundary value problems subject to nonlinear boundary conditions. We apply our results to show that solutions to the discrete problem converge to solutions of the continuous problem in an aggregate sense. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

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We give conditions on f involving pairs of discrete lower and discrete upper solutions which lead to the existence of at least three solutions of the discrete two-point boundary value problem yk+1 - 2yk + yk-1 + f (k, yk, vk) = 0, for k = 1,..., n - 1, y0 = 0 = yn,, where f is continuous and vk = yk - yk-1, for k = 1,..., n. In the special case f (k, t, p) = f (t) greater than or equal to 0, we give growth conditions on f and apply our general result to show the existence of three positive solutions. We give an example showing this latter result is sharp. Our results extend those of Avery and Peterson and are in the spirit of our results for the continuous analogue. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

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We study the continuous problem y"=f(x,y,y'), xc[0,1], 0=G((y(0),y(1)),(y'(0), y'(1))), and its discrete approximation (y(k+1)-2y(k)+y(k-1))/h(2) =f(t(k), y(k), v(k)), k = 1,..., n-1, 0 = G((y(0), y(n)), (v(1), v(n))), where f and G = (g(0), g(1)) are continuous and fully nonlinear, h = 1/n, v(k) = (y(k) - y(k-1))/h, for k =1,..., n, and t(k) = kh, for k = 0,...,n. We assume there exist strict lower and strict upper solutions and impose additional conditions on f and G which are known to yield a priori bounds on, and to guarantee the existence of solutions of the continuous problem. We show that the discrete approximation also has solutions which approximate solutions of the continuous problem and converge to the solution of the continuous problem when it is unique, as the grid size goes to 0. Homotopy methods can be used to compute the solution of the discrete approximation. Our results were motivated by those of Gaines.

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Two studies tested the hypothesis that preschool children's theory of mind ability is related to their levels of peer acceptance. In Study 1, 78 children between the ages of 4 and 6 provided peer nominations that allowed determination of social preference and social impact scores, and classification in one of five peer status groups (following Coie & Dodge, 1983). Children were also tested on five different theory of mind tasks. The results showed that theory of mind scores were significantly related to social preference scores in a subsample of children who were over 5 years old. Further, popular children were found to score higher on theory of mind tasks than children classified as rejected. Study 2 replicated and extended the first study with a new sample of 87 4- to 6-year-old children. Study 2 included measures of peer acceptance, theory of mind ability and verbal intelligence, as well as teacher ratings of prosocial and aggressive behaviours. The results of Study 2 showed that for the total group of children, prosocial behaviour was the best predictor of social preference scores. When the Study 2 sample was split into older and younger children, theory of mind ability was found to be the best predictor of social preference scores for the older children (over age 5), while aggressive and prosocial behaviours were the best predictors of peer acceptance in the younger children. Overall, the pattern of results suggests that the impact of theory of mind ability on peer acceptance is modest but increases with children's age.

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Increasing older people's participation in society is important in ageing policies worldwide. There is a need to understand the challenges for health professionals of transforming policy on participation into liberating social change practices on the ground. This paper explores the meaning, theory and practice of participation. It uses the example of a work in progress project that has attempted to address structural barriers to older people's participation within an Australian aged care facility, to illustrate theoretical and practice principles surrounding participation.

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Development of a unified classification system to replace four of the systems currently used in disability athletics (i.e., track and field) has been widely advocated. The definition and purpose of classification, underpinned by taxonomic principles and collectively endorsed by relevant disability sport organizations, have not been developed but are required for successful implementation of a unified system. It is posited that the International classification of functioning. disability, and health (ICF), published by the World Health Organization (2001), and current disability athletics systems are, fundamentally, classifications of the functioning and disability associated with health conditions and are highly interrelated. A rationale for basing a unified disability athletics system on ICF is established. Following taxonomic analysis of the current systems, the definition and purpose of a unified disability athletics classification are proposed and discussed. The proposed taxonomic framework and definitions have implications for other disability sport classification systems.

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In this paper we construct predictor-corrector (PC) methods based on the trivial predictor and stochastic implicit Runge-Kutta (RK) correctors for solving stochastic differential equations. Using the colored rooted tree theory and stochastic B-series, the order condition theorem is derived for constructing stochastic RK methods based on PC implementations. We also present detailed order conditions of the PC methods using stochastic implicit RK correctors with strong global order 1.0 and 1.5. A two-stage implicit RK method with strong global order 1.0 and a four-stage implicit RK method with strong global order 1.5 used as the correctors are constructed in this paper. The mean-square stability properties and numerical results of the PC methods based on these two implicit RK correctors are reported.

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Carbon gasification with steam to produce H-2 and CO is an important reaction widely used in industry for hydrogen generation. Although the literature is vast, the. mechanism for the formation of H-2 is still unclear. In particular, little has, been done to investigate the potential of molecular orbital theory to distinguish different mechanism possibilities. In this work, we used molecular orbital theory to demonstrate a favorable energetic pathway where H2O is first physically adsorbed on the virgin graphite surface with negligible change in molecular structure. Chemisorption occurs via O approaching the carbon edge site with one H atom stretching away from the O in the transition state. This is followed by a local minimum. state in which the stretching H is further disconnected from the O atoms and the remaining OH group is still on the carbon edge site. The disconnected H then pivot around the OH group to bond with the H of the OH group and forms H-2. The O atom remaining on the carbon edge site is subsequently desorbed as CO. The reverse occurs when H-2 reacts with the surface oxygen to produce H2O.