A determinação dos números de indivíduos mínimos necessários na experimentação genética

The main object of the present paper consists in giving formulas and methods which enable us to determine the minimum number of repetitions or of individuals necessary to garantee some extent the success of an experiment. The theoretical basis of all processes consists essentially in the following. Knowing the frequency of the desired p and of the non desired ovents q we may calculate the frequency of all possi- ble combinations, to be expected in n repetitions, by expanding the binomium (p-+q)n. Determining which of these combinations we want to avoid we calculate their total frequency, selecting the value of the exponent n of the binomium in such a way that this total frequency is equal or smaller than the accepted limit of precision n/pª{ 1/n1 (q/p)n + 1/(n-1)| (q/p)n-1 + 1/ 2!(n-2)| (q/p)n-2 + 1/3(n-3) (q/p)n-3... < Plim - -(1b) There does not exist an absolute limit of precision since its value depends not only upon psychological factors in our judgement, but is at the same sime a function of the number of repetitions For this reasen y have proposed (1,56) two relative values, one equal to 1-5n as the lowest value of probability and the other equal to 1-10n as the highest value of improbability, leaving between them what may be called the "region of doubt However these formulas cannot be applied in our case since this number n is just the unknown quantity. Thus we have to use, instead of the more exact values of these two formulas, the conventional limits of P.lim equal to 0,05 (Precision 5%), equal to 0,01 (Precision 1%, and to 0,001 (Precision P, 1%). The binominal formula as explained above (cf. formula 1, pg. 85), however is of rather limited applicability owing to the excessive calculus necessary, and we have thus to procure approximations as substitutes. We may use, without loss of precision, the following approximations: a) The normal or Gaussean distribution when the expected frequency p has any value between 0,1 and 0,9, and when n is at least superior to ten. b) The Poisson distribution when the expected frequecy p is smaller than 0,1. Tables V to VII show for some special cases that these approximations are very satisfactory. The praticai solution of the following problems, stated in the introduction can now be given: A) What is the minimum number of repititions necessary in order to avoid that any one of a treatments, varieties etc. may be accidentally always the best, on the best and second best, or the first, second, and third best or finally one of the n beat treatments, varieties etc. Using the first term of the binomium, we have the following equation for n: n = log Riim / log (m:) = log Riim / log.m - log a --------------(5) B) What is the minimun number of individuals necessary in 01der that a ceratin type, expected with the frequency p, may appaer at least in one, two, three or a=m+1 individuals. 1) For p between 0,1 and 0,9 and using the Gaussean approximation we have: on - ó. p (1-p) n - a -1.m b= δ. 1-p /p e c = m/p } -------------------(7) n = b + b² + 4 c/ 2 n´ = 1/p n cor = n + n' ---------- (8) We have to use the correction n' when p has a value between 0,25 and 0,75. The greek letters delta represents in the present esse the unilateral limits of the Gaussean distribution for the three conventional limits of precision : 1,64; 2,33; and 3,09 respectively. h we are only interested in having at least one individual, and m becomes equal to zero, the formula reduces to : c= m/p o para a = 1 a = { b + b²}² = b² = δ2 1- p /p }-----------------(9) n = 1/p n (cor) = n + n´ 2) If p is smaller than 0,1 we may use table 1 in order to find the mean m of a Poisson distribution and determine. n = m: p C) Which is the minimun number of individuals necessary for distinguishing two frequencies p1 and p2? 1) When pl and p2 are values between 0,1 and 0,9 we have: n = { δ p1 ( 1-pi) + p2) / p2 (1 - p2) n= 1/p1-p2 }------------ (13) n (cor) We have again to use the unilateral limits of the Gaussean distribution. The correction n' should be used if at least one of the valors pl or p2 has a value between 0,25 and 0,75. A more complicated formula may be used in cases where whe want to increase the precision : n (p1 - p2) δ { p1 (1- p2 ) / n= m δ = δ p1 ( 1 - p1) + p2 ( 1 - p2) c= m / p1 - p2 n = { b2 + 4 4 c }2 }--------- (14) n = 1/ p1 - p2 2) When both pl and p2 are smaller than 0,1 we determine the quocient (pl-r-p2) and procure the corresponding number m2 of a Poisson distribution in table 2. The value n is found by the equation : n = mg /p2 ------------- (15) D) What is the minimun number necessary for distinguishing three or more frequencies, p2 p1 p3. If the frequecies pl p2 p3 are values between 0,1 e 0,9 we have to solve the individual equations and sue the higest value of n thus determined : n 1.2 = {δ p1 (1 - p1) / p1 - p2 }² = Fiim n 1.2 = { δ p1 ( 1 - p1) + p1 ( 1 - p1) }² } -- (16) Delta represents now the bilateral limits of the : Gaussean distrioution : 1,96-2,58-3,29. 2) No table was prepared for the relatively rare cases of a comparison of threes or more frequencies below 0,1 and in such cases extremely high numbers would be required. E) A process is given which serves to solve two problemr of informatory nature : a) if a special type appears in n individuals with a frequency p(obs), what may be the corresponding ideal value of p(esp), or; b) if we study samples of n in diviuals and expect a certain type with a frequency p(esp) what may be the extreme limits of p(obs) in individual farmlies ? I.) If we are dealing with values between 0,1 and 0,9 we may use table 3. To solve the first question we select the respective horizontal line for p(obs) and determine which column corresponds to our value of n and find the respective value of p(esp) by interpolating between columns. In order to solve the second problem we start with the respective column for p(esp) and find the horizontal line for the given value of n either diretly or by approximation and by interpolation. 2) For frequencies smaller than 0,1 we have to use table 4 and transform the fractions p(esp) and p(obs) in numbers of Poisson series by multiplication with n. Tn order to solve the first broblem, we verify in which line the lower Poisson limit is equal to m(obs) and transform the corresponding value of m into frequecy p(esp) by dividing through n. The observed frequency may thus be a chance deviate of any value between 0,0... and the values given by dividing the value of m in the table by n. In the second case we transform first the expectation p(esp) into a value of m and procure in the horizontal line, corresponding to m(esp) the extreme values om m which than must be transformed, by dividing through n into values of p(obs). F) Partial and progressive tests may be recomended in all cases where there is lack of material or where the loss of time is less importent than the cost of large scale experiments since in many cases the minimun number necessary to garantee the results within the limits of precision is rather large. One should not forget that the minimun number really represents at the same time a maximun number, necessary only if one takes into consideration essentially the disfavorable variations, but smaller numbers may frequently already satisfactory results. For instance, by definition, we know that a frequecy of p means that we expect one individual in every total o(f1-p). If there were no chance variations, this number (1- p) will be suficient. and if there were favorable variations a smaller number still may yield one individual of the desired type. r.nus trusting to luck, one may start the experiment with numbers, smaller than the minimun calculated according to the formulas given above, and increase the total untill the desired result is obtained and this may well b ebefore the "minimum number" is reached. Some concrete examples of this partial or progressive procedure are given from our genetical experiments with maize.

Diet of the South American frog Leptodactylus ocellatus (Anura, Leptodactylidae) in Uruguay

The diet of Leptodactylus ocellatus (L., 1758) was studied in specimens collected at Maldonado Department (Uruguay), where monthly surveys were made between August 1998 and March 2000. A total of 143 frogs were collected, measured, sexed, and dissected, to assess stomach contents. The anurans were grouped into three age classes and four categories (considering sex and capture date). The trophic amplitude for each age class and sex-season category was quantified using Shannon-Weaver Index, and the trophic niche overlap between ages and categories by using the Pianka Index. Comparisons among treatments were made by G-tests. The most important prey items were coleopterans (IRI = 2547), and significant correlations were found between predator and prey sizes. The major differences on diet composition were found between extreme age classes (froglets and adults). Significant differences were also detected between sexes in the cold season but not in the warm season. Any of these changes in diet may be related with the availability of prey.

Microsatellite genotyping from faeces of Lontra longicaudis from southern Brazil

A genetic study of the neotropical river otter Lontra longicaudis (Olfers, 1818), which has an unknown conservation status, was carried out at the Taim Ecological Station and the margins of the Vargas stream, Rio Grande do Sul, southern Brazil. Faecal samples were collected, and DNA was extracted using a silica-guanidine method. Five microsatellite loci were amplified using PCR with heterologous primers previously described for Lutra lutra (Linnaeus, 1758). Sixteen faecal samples out of 29 from Taim and 11 out of 14 from Vargas stream margins contained enough DNA for genetic analysis. A total of 49 different alleles were found at both localities, from which 18 were exclusively found in individuals from Taim and 17 were exclusives from Vargas individuals. The most common allele was the same at both locations for three loci (Lut715, Lut733, and Lut818). A high level of genetic diversity was found at both sites (NeTaim=4.1, HoTaim=0.299, HeTaim=0.681; NeVargas=4.9, HoVargas=0.355, HeVargas=0.724), being higher at the Vargas stream site. A high and significant level of heterozygote deficiency was observed at most loci according to the χ2 test. The homogeneity χ2 test (P<0.001) showed that there were significant differences in the allele frequencies between the two locations. Genotyping for more than one locus was possible in 81.5% of samples, from which only 37% were possible to genotype for more than three loci. A low degree of relatedness was found among individuals from Taim (R=0.055±0.310), but an even lower value of relatedness was found at the Vargas site (R= -0.285±0.440). The significant degree of differentiation (I=0.890; F ST=0.059) found between Taim and Vargas individuals suggests that there is more than one population of otters in the southern extreme of Brazil, which probably are associated with the water body systems found in this region, the Mirim and the Caiuvá/Flores/Mangueira Lagoons. The high genetic diversity and low relatedness found at the Vargas stream, lead us to believe that the Vargas stream may be acting as a corridor between these water bodies for otter dispersion.

Morphometric differences in two calanoid sibling species, Boeckella gracilipes and B. titicacae (Crustacea, Copepoda)

Calanoid copepods are abundant in South American inland waters and include widespread species, such as Boeckella gracilipes (Daday, 1902), which occurs from the Ecuador to Tierra del Fuego Island. This species occurs under various environmental conditions, and is found in oligotrophic lakes in Patagonia (39-54°S) and in shallow mountain lakes north of 39°S. The aim of the present study is to conduct a morphometric comparison of male specimens of B. titicacae collected in Titicaca and B. gracilipes collected in Riñihue lakes, with a third population of B. gracilipes collected in shallow ponds in Salar de Surire. Titicaca and Riñihue lakes are stable environments, whereas Salar de Surire is an extreme environment. These ponds present an extreme environment due to high exposure to solar radiation and high salinity levels. The results of the study revealed differences among the three populations. These results agree well with systematic descriptions in the literature on differences between the populations of Titicaca and Riñihue lakes, and population of Salar de Surire differs slightly from the other two populations. It is probable that the differences between the population of Salar de Surire and the other two populations result from the extreme environment in Salar de Surire. High exposure to solar radiation, high salinity and extreme variations in temperature enhance genetic variations that are consequently expressed in morphology.

Rutura do baço na febre tifóide

A case of typhus levissimus or splenotyphus is reported whose death ocurred approximately at the beginning of the 2nd week as a consequence of rupture of the spleen and hematoperitoneum (2 liters). Acute perisplenitis and intracapsular hemorrhages as well as marked distention of the capsule pertinent to the extreme increase in volume of the organ in this stage of the disease are thought to be the changes concerned with the rupture of the organ, possibly influenced by overlooked minimal trauma.

The Determinants of Entry are not Independent of Start-up Size: Some evidence from Spanish manufacturing

In this paper we explore the determinants of firm start-up size of Spanish manufacturing industries. The industries' barriers to entry affect the ability of potential entrants to enter the markets and the size range at which they decide to enter. In order to examine the relationships between barriers to entry and size we applied the quantile regression techniques. Our results indicate that the variables that characterize the structure of the market, the variables that are related to the behaviour of the incumbent firms and the rate of growth of the industries generate different barriers depending on the initial size of the entrants. Keywords: Entry, regression quantiles, start-up size. JEL classification: L110, L600

Plasmódio de primata do Brasil

A second species of monkey Plasmodium of the New World is described from the howler monkey Alouatta`fusca GEOFFROY, 1812, captured in Itapecirica, São Paulo, Brazil. The new species differs from Plasmodium brasilianum GONDER et VON BERENBERG-GOSSLER, 1909 by following characters: 1st. Almost constant presence in the blood cells of granulations of the same type as SCHÜFFNER dots. 2nd. Considerable hypertrophy of the parasitised cells. 3rd. Greater number of merozoites after schizogony with an habitual minimum of 16 elements in contrast with the maximum of 16 in Plasmodium brasilianum. 4th. Extreme rarity of band forms. This morphology strongly suggests an infection of the benignan tertian type. To this new species the name of Plasmodium simium, sp.n. is proposed.

Mediation incomplete information bargaining with filtered communication

We analyze a continuous-time bilateral double auction in the presence of two-sided incomplete information and a smallest money unit. A distinguishing feature of our model is that intermediate concessions are not observable by the adversary: they are only communicated to a passive auctioneer. An alternative interpretation is that of mediated bargaining. We show that an equilibrium using only the extreme agreements always exists and display the necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of (perfect Bayesian) equilibra which yield intermediate agreements. For the symmetric case with uniform type distribution we numerically calculate the equilibria. We find that the equilibrium which does not use compromise agreements is the least efficient, however, the rest of the equilibria yield the lower social welfare the higher number of compromise agreements are used.

Frames and games

Decision-makers are sometimes influenced by the way in which choice situations are presented to them or "framed" This can be seen as an important challenge to the social sciences, since strong and pervasive framing effects would make it difficult to study human behavior in a synthetic or theoretic manner. We present results from experiments with dilemma games designed to shed light on the effects of several frame variations. We study, among others, the particular public bad frame used by Andreoni (1995) and two more naturalistic frames involving stories. Our results show that none of the frame manipulations have a significant effect on average behavior, but we do find some effects on extreme behavior. We also find that incentives do matter where frames do not matter.

Fabricació de Lents Zonals de Fresnel per aplicació als raigs X tous

Estudi elaborat a partir d’una estada al Paul Scherrer Institut del Maig a l’Octubre del 2006 amb l’ajuda i supervisió dels Dr. Konstantins Jefimovs i Dr. Christian David. Focalitzar raigs X tous és una necessitat essencial per al microanàlisis, la microscopia, i fer imatges en moltes Instal·lacions de Radiació Sincrotró. Les Lents Zonals de Fresnel (FZP, de la denominació anglesa “Fresnel Zone Plates”) han demostrat donar uns punts focals amb una resolució espacial destacada i una baixa il·luminació de fons. Tanmateix, la fabricació de FZP és complexa i no totalment reproduïble. A més a més, el temps de vida de les FZP és força curt, ja que estant situades sobre membranes de nitrur de silici molt fines i altament absorbents. Per tant, hem fet esforços per implementar FZP de silici, que s’espera que siguin més resistents. L’element està fet d’una oblia de cristall de silici poc absorbent, i no presenta cap interfase entre materials. Així doncs, aquestes lents són especialment adequades per a aguantar les extremes càrregues de radiació de les fonts de raigs X més brillants. Particularment, això és molt important per a les aplicacions a les pròximes generacions de fonts de raigs X, com els Làsers d’Electrons Lliures (FEL, de la denominació anglesa “Free Electron Laser”). El silici també garanteix que no hi hagi cap banda d’absorció en el rang d’energies de la finestra de l’aigua (200-520 eV), fent aquestes lents ideals per a fer imatges de mostres biològiques. En aquest informe, hi ha una descripció detallada de tots els passos involucrats en la fabricació de les Lents Zonals de Fresnel de silici. En resum, les estructures de FZP es modelen sobre una resina utilitzant litografia per feix d’electrons i llavors el patró es transmet al silici mitjançant un gravat d’ions reactius (RIE, de la denominació anglesa ‘Reactive Ion Etching’) utilitzant una fina (20 nm) màscara de Crintermitja. Les membranes de silici es poden aprimar després de la fabricació de les estructures per a garantir una transmissió suficient fins i tot a baixes energies. Aquest informe també inclou l’anàlisi i la discussió d’alguns experiments preliminars per avaluar el rendiment de les Si FZPs fets a la línia de llum PolLux del Swiss Ligth Source amb l’ajuda dels Dr. Jörg Raabe i Dr. George Tzvetkov.

Cosa: arqueologia de un enclave comercial mediterráneo. Campaña de 2006

En el marco del proyecto “La ciutat romana de Cosa: arqueologia d’un enclau comercial mediterrani” , autorizado y apoyado por la Soprintendenza Archeologica por la Toscana, entre los dias 4 y 22 de septiembre de 2006 se ha realizado la segunda campaña de intervenciones arqueológicas en la ciudad romana de Cosa (Ansedonia, prov. Grosseto, Itàlia), colonia latina fundada en el 273 aC a unos 120 km. al norte de Roma. De acuerdo a los resultados obtenidos en la campanya del 2005 (localización/verificación de los límites precisos de la ínsula O-P/4-5 mediante la aplicación de técnicas de prospección geofísica completadas con la limpieza, registro y documentación arqueológica de las estructuras localizadas ) los trabajos del 2006 se han orientado hacia la identificación de la organización interna de la dicha ínsula tomando como referente el criptopórtico situado en el extremo N.E., el cual parece constituir el límite de una estructura singular (privada o pública ) estratégicamente ubicada en relación al fórum i a la Via Sacra. El trabajo de campo ha consistido en un intenso decapage con la finalidad de delimitar unidades de habitación complejas funcionalmente definidas y así la articulación existente entre ellas; en este sentido se ha podido documentar evidencias del espacio porticado superpuesto al criptopórtico así como, paralelamente a la calle 5 y en dirección a la Via Sacra, parte de habitaciones algunas de las cuales conservaban restos del pavimiento original, en un caso de mosaico. Paralelamente, se ha realizado el análisis en laboratorio de los materiales recuperados los cuales, aún procediendo de nivel superficial, empiezan a proporcionar datos sobre los diferentes momentos de ocupación de la zona, básicamente tardorepublicanos y augustales.

Preliminary study of cooperation in hybrid ad-hoc networks

In this paper, we present a first approach to evolve a cooperative behavior in ad hoc networks. Since wireless nodes are energy constrained, it may not be in the best interest of a node to always accept relay requests. On the other hand, if all nodes decide not to expend energy in relaying, then network throughput will drop dramatically. Both these extreme scenarios are unfavorable to the interests of a user. In this paper we deal with the issue of user cooperation in ad hoc networks by developing the algorithm called Generous Tit-For-Tat. We assume that nodes are rational, i.e., their actions are strictly determined by self-interest, and that each node is associated with a minimum lifetime constraint. Given these lifetime constraints and the assumption of rational behavior, we study the added behavior of the network.

A nonlinear threshold model for the dependence of extremes of stationary sequences

One of the main implications of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) is that expected future returns on financial assets are not predictable if investors are risk neutral. In this paper we argue that financial time series offer more information than that this hypothesis seems to supply. In particular we postulate that runs of very large returns can be predictable for small time periods. In order to prove this we propose a TAR(3,1)-GARCH(1,1) model that is able to describe two different types of extreme events: a first type generated by large uncertainty regimes where runs of extremes are not predictable and a second type where extremes come from isolated dread/joy events. This model is new in the literature in nonlinear processes. Its novelty resides on two features of the model that make it different from previous TAR methodologies. The regimes are motivated by the occurrence of extreme values and the threshold variable is defined by the shock affecting the process in the preceding period. In this way this model is able to uncover dependence and clustering of extremes in high as well as in low volatility periods. This model is tested with data from General Motors stocks prices corresponding to two crises that had a substantial impact in financial markets worldwide; the Black Monday of October 1987 and September 11th, 2001. By analyzing the periods around these crises we find evidence of statistical significance of our model and thereby of predictability of extremes for September 11th but not for Black Monday. These findings support the hypotheses of a big negative event producing runs of negative returns in the first case, and of the burst of a worldwide stock market bubble in the second example. JEL classification: C12; C15; C22; C51 Keywords and Phrases: asymmetries, crises, extreme values, hypothesis testing, leverage effect, nonlinearities, threshold models

Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation support after heart explantation: a proposal on how to deal with hyperacute rejection of heart transplant

Purpose: In extreme situations, such as hyperacute rejection of heart transplant or major bleeding per-operating complications, an urgent heart explantation might be the only means of survival. The aim of this experimental study was to improve the surgical technique and the hemodynamics of an Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation (ECMO) support through a peripheral vascular access in an acardia model. Methods: An ECMO support was established in 7 bovine experiments (59±6.1 kg) by the transjugular insertion to the caval axis of a self-expanded cannula, with return through a carotid artery. After baseline measurements of pump flow and arterial and central venous pressure, ventricular fibrillation was induced (B), the great arteries were clamped, the heart was excised and right and left atria remnants, containing the pulmonary veins, were sutured together leaving an atrial septal defect (ASD) over the cannula in the caval axis. Measurements were taken with the pulmonary artery (PA) clamped (C) and anastomosed with the caval axis (D). Regular arterial and central venous blood gases tests were performed. The ANOVA test for repeated measures was used to test the null hypothesis and a Bonferroni t method for assessing the significance in the between groups pairwise comparison of mean pump flow. Results: Initial pump flow (A) was 4.3±0.6 L/min dropping to 2.8±0.7 L/min (P B-A= 0.003) 10 minutes after induction of ventricular fibrillation (B). After cardiectomy, with the pulmonary artery clamped (C) it augmented not significantly to 3.5±0.8 L/min (P C-B= 0.33, P C-A= 0.029). Finally, PA anastomosis to the caval axis was followed by an almost to baseline pump flow augmentation (4.1±0.7 L/min, P D-B= 0.009, P D-C= 0.006, P D-A= 0.597), permitting a full ECMO support in acardia by a peripheral vascular access. Conclusions: ECMO support in acardia is feasible, providing new opportunities in situations where heart must urgently be explanted, as in hyperacute rejection of heart transplant. Adequate drainage of pulmonary circulation is pivotal in order to avoid pulmonary congestion and loss of volume from the normal right to left shunt of bronchial vessels. Furthermore, the PA anastomosis to the caval axis not only improves pump flow but it also permits an ECMO support by a peripheral vascular access and the closure of the chest.

Risk prediction of prevalent diabetes in a Swiss population using a weighted genetic score--the CoLaus Study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Several susceptibility genes for type 2 diabetes have been discovered recently. Individually, these genes increase the disease risk only minimally. The goals of the present study were to determine, at the population level, the risk of diabetes in individuals who carry risk alleles within several susceptibility genes for the disease and the added value of this genetic information over the clinical predictors. METHODS: We constructed an additive genetic score using the most replicated single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) within 15 type 2 diabetes-susceptibility genes, weighting each SNP with its reported effect. We tested this score in the extensively phenotyped population-based cross-sectional CoLaus Study in Lausanne, Switzerland (n = 5,360), involving 356 diabetic individuals. RESULTS: The clinical predictors of prevalent diabetes were age, BMI, family history of diabetes, WHR, and triacylglycerol/HDL-cholesterol ratio. After adjustment for these variables, the risk of diabetes was 2.7 (95% CI 1.8-4.0, p = 0.000006) for individuals with a genetic score within the top quintile, compared with the bottom quintile. Adding the genetic score to the clinical covariates improved the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve slightly (from 0.86 to 0.87), yet significantly (p = 0.002). BMI was similar in these two extreme quintiles. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: In this population, a simple weighted 15 SNP-based genetic score provides additional information over clinical predictors of prevalent diabetes. At this stage, however, the clinical benefit of this genetic information is limited.