External validation of the Hospital-patient One-year Mortality Risk (HOMR) model for predicting death within 1 year after hospital admission

BACKGROUND Predicting long-term survival after admission to hospital is helpful for clinical, administrative and research purposes. The Hospital-patient One-year Mortality Risk (HOMR) model was derived and internally validated to predict the risk of death within 1 year after admission. We conducted an external validation of the model in a large multicentre study. METHODS We used administrative data for all nonpsychiatric admissions of adult patients to hospitals in the provinces of Ontario (2003-2010) and Alberta (2011-2012), and to the Brigham and Women's Hospital in Boston (2010-2012) to calculate each patient's HOMR score at admission. The HOMR score is based on a set of parameters that captures patient demographics, health burden and severity of acute illness. We determined patient status (alive or dead) 1 year after admission using population-based registries. RESULTS The 3 validation cohorts (n = 2,862,996 in Ontario, 210 595 in Alberta and 66,683 in Boston) were distinct from each other and from the derivation cohort. The overall risk of death within 1 year after admission was 8.7% (95% confidence interval [CI] 8.7% to 8.8%). The HOMR score was strongly and significantly associated with risk of death in all populations and was highly discriminative, with a C statistic ranging from 0.89 (95% CI 0.87 to 0.91) to 0.92 (95% CI 0.91 to 0.92). Observed and expected outcome risks were similar (median absolute difference in percent dying in 1 yr 0.3%, interquartile range 0.05%-2.5%). INTERPRETATION The HOMR score, calculated using routinely collected administrative data, accurately predicted the risk of death among adult patients within 1 year after admission to hospital for nonpsychiatric indications. Similar performance was seen when the score was used in geographically and temporally diverse populations. The HOMR model can be used for risk adjustment in analyses of health administrative data to predict long-term survival among hospital patients.

Internal and external effects on cognition: Evidence from memory training in very preterm-born children and cognition in patients with carotid artery stenosis before and after treatment

The present synopsis aims to integrate one study about memory training in very preterm-born children and two studies about cognition in patients with carotid artery stenosis before and after treatments. Preterm-born children are at increased risk of cognitive deficits and behavioural problems compared with peers born at term. This thesis determined whether memory training would improve cognitive functions in school-age very preterm-born children. Memory strategy training produced significant improvements in trained and non-trained cognitive functions; a core working memory training revealed significant effects on short-term memory and working memory tasks. Six months after training, children in both training groups showed better working memory performance than children in the waiting control group. This is evidence that memory training – an external influence on cognition – induces plastic changes in very preterm-born children. Patients with carotid artery stenosis are known to be at increased risk of cognitive impairment. We showed that patients with symptomatic or asymptomatic carotid artery stenosis were at higher risk for cognitive deficits than expected in a normative sample. This thesis seeks to link cognitive plasticity to internal factors like carotid stenosis. An external factor, which influences blood flow to the brain is the nature of the carotid artery stenosis treatment. Research on the effects of carotid artery stenosis treatment on cognition has produced inconsistent results. We found significant improvement in frontal lobe functions, visual memory and motor speed one year after treatment independent of the treatment type (best medical treatment, carotid artery stenting, carotid artery endarterectomy); providing evidence for ‘treatment-induced’ cognitive plasticity. Baseline performance was negatively associated with improvement in various cognitive functions after training in very preterm-born children and after treatment in patients with carotid artery stenosis. The present synopsis aims to integrate these findings into the current and relevant literature, and discuss consequences as well as methodological considerations resulting from the studies constituting the thesis at hand.

Collaboration patterns, external shocks and uncertainty: Swiss nuclear energy politics before and after Fukushima

Energy shocks like the Fukushima accident can have important political consequences. This article examines their impact on collaboration patterns between collective actors in policy processes. It argues that external shocks create both behavioral uncertainty, meaning that actors do not know about other actors' preferences, and policy uncertainty on the choice and consequences of policy instruments. The context of uncertainty interacts with classical drivers of actor collaboration in policy processes. The analysis is based on a dataset comprising interview and survey data on political actors in two subsequent policy processes in Switzerland and Exponential Random Graph Models for network data. Results first show that under uncertainty, collaboration of actors in policy processes is less based on similar preferences than in stable contexts, but trust and knowledge of other actors are more important. Second, under uncertainty, scientific actors are not preferred collaboration partners.

Optimal frequency of Imiquimod (Aldara(RTM)) 5% cream treatment of external genital warts in immunocompetent adults. Systematic review and meta-analysis

Genital warts are a sexually transmitted disease with high prevalence in the U.S. Imiquimod 5% cream is a self-applied treatment, prescribed three-times weekly, at bedtime, for 16 weeks. The post-marketing research addressed questions of imiquimod dosing frequency. MEDLINE, Embase, and the Cochrane Library were searched for randomized trials on efficacy and safety of imiquimod 5% cream with either three-times weekly or once-daily regimens to systemically review treatment options. Efficacy was evaluated by completely cleared warts at the end of treatment, and safety - by frequency of adverse events and at least one rest period taken from treatment. Six studies were selected for the analysis, including circumcised men, uncircumcised men, and women. The once-daily compared to three-times weekly regimen did not improve the efficacy, but resulted in increased incidence of local skin reactions and events, when at least one rest period was taken from treatment. The optimal regimen is three-times weekly.^

A simplified protocol for the treatment of acute radiation overexposures from sources external to the body

When compared to other types of occupational injuries, radiation overexposure events are somewhat rare, so health care providers may not be familiar with the actual clinical care to be provided when such an event occurs. Radiation overexposure treatment decisions are predicated on the amount of radiation dose received, which is a value many health care providers may not have the knowledge or expertise to either calculate or even estimate. Even the different units of measure for radiation exposure and dose received can be a source of confusion. The prompt treatment of radiation overexposure victims could be enhanced and facilitated through the creation of a single, simple protocol that consists of the various means of dose measurement and estimation, correlated to the corresponding appropriate clinical care measures. This culminating experience will assemble essential information currently maintained in disparate references to create a single, simplified protocol to facilitate the treatment of victims of acute external radiation overexposure. ^

Quantitative comparison of late effects following photon versus proton external-beam radiation therapies: Toward an evidence-based approach to selecting a treatment modality

Radiation therapy has been used as an effective treatment for malignancies in pediatric patients. However, in many cases, the side effects of radiation diminish these patients’ quality of life. In order to develop strategies to minimize radiogenic complications, one must first quantitatively estimate pediatric patients’ relative risk for radiogenic late effects, which has not become feasible till recently because of the calculational complexity. The goals of this work were to calculate the dose delivered to tissues and organs in pediatric patients during contemporary photon and proton radiotherapies; to estimate the corresponding risk of radiogenic second cancer and cardiac toxicity based on the calculated doses and on dose-risk models from the literature; to test for the statistical significance of the difference between predicted risks after photon versus proton radiotherapies; and to provide a prototype of an evidence-based approach to selecting treatment modalities for pediatric patients, taking second cancer and cardiac toxicity into account. The results showed that proton therapy confers a lower predicted risk of radiogenic second cancer, and lower risks of radiogenic cardiac toxicities, compared to photon therapy. An uncertainty analysis revealed that the qualitative findings of this study are insensitive to changes in a wide variety of host and treatment related factors.

A multiplicative model for standardizing vital rates without using external standards

Standardization is a common method for adjusting confounding factors when comparing two or more exposure category to assess excess risk. Arbitrary choice of standard population in standardization introduces selection bias due to healthy worker effect. Small sample in specific groups also poses problems in estimating relative risk and the statistical significance is problematic. As an alternative, statistical models were proposed to overcome such limitations and find adjusted rates. In this dissertation, a multiplicative model is considered to address the issues related to standardized index namely: Standardized Mortality Ratio (SMR) and Comparative Mortality Factor (CMF). The model provides an alternative to conventional standardized technique. Maximum likelihood estimates of parameters of the model are used to construct an index similar to the SMR for estimating relative risk of exposure groups under comparison. Parametric Bootstrap resampling method is used to evaluate the goodness of fit of the model, behavior of estimated parameters and variability in relative risk on generated sample. The model provides an alternative to both direct and indirect standardization method. ^

HEALTH MAINTENANCE ORGANIZATION ENVIRONMENT: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY OF THE RELATIONSHIP OF EXTERNAL CONTEXT AND PERFORMANCE

The research project is an extension of a series of administrative science and health care research projects evaluating the influence of external context, organizational strategy, and organizational structure upon organizational success or performance. The research will rely on the assumption that there is not one single best approach to the management of organizations (the contingency theory). As organizational effectiveness is dependent on an appropriate mix of factors, organizations may be equally effective based on differing combinations of factors. The external context of the organization is expected to influence internal organizational strategy and structure and in turn the internal measures affect performance (discriminant theory). The research considers the relationship of external context and organization performance.^ The unit of study for the research will be the health maintenance organization (HMO); an organization the accepts in exchange for a fixed, advance capitation payment, contractual responsibility to assure the delivery of a stated range of health sevices to a voluntary enrolled population. With the current Federal resurgence of interest in the Health Maintenance Organization (HMO) as a major component in the health care system, attention must be directed at maximizing development of HMOs from the limited resources available. Increased skills are needed in both Federal and private evaluation of HMO feasibility in order to prevent resource investment and in projects that will fail while concurrently identifying potentially successful projects that will not be considered using current standards.^ The research considers 192 factors measuring contextual milieu (social, educational, economic, legal, demographic, health and technological factors). Through intercorrelation and principle components data reduction techniques this was reduced to 12 variables. Two measures of HMO performance were identified, they are (1) HMO status (operational or defunct), and (2) a principle components factor score considering eight measures of performance. The relationship between HMO context and performance was analysed using correlation and stepwise multiple regression methods. In each case it has been concluded that the external contextual variables are not predictive of success or failure of study Health Maintenance Organizations. This suggests that performance of an HMO may rely on internal organizational factors. These findings have policy implications as contextual measures are used as a major determinant in HMO feasibility analysis, and as a factor in the allocation of limited Federal funds. ^

External validation study of a clinical prediction rule for ambulation outcomes after traumatic spinal cord injury

The main objective of this study was to determine the external validity of a clinical prediction rule developed by the European Multicenter Study on Human Spinal Cord Injury (EM-SCI) to predict the ambulation outcomes 12 months after traumatic spinal cord injury. Data from the North American Clinical Trials Network (NACTN) data registry with approximately 500 SCI cases were used for this validity study. The predictive accuracy of the EM-SCI prognostic model was evaluated using calibration and discrimination based on 231 NACTN cases. The area under the receiver-operating-characteristics curve (ROC) curve was 0.927 (95% CI 0.894 – 0.959) for the EM-SCI model when applied to NACTN population. This is lower than the AUC of 0.956 (95% CI 0.936 – 0.976) reported for the EM-SCI population, but suggests that the EM-SCI clinical prediction rule distinguished well between those patients in the NACTN population who were able to achieve independent ambulation and those who did not achieve independent ambulation. The calibration curve suggests that higher the prediction score is, the better the probability of walking with the best prediction for AIS D patients. In conclusion, the EM-SCI clinical prediction rule was determined to be generalizable to the adult NACTN SCI population.^

UNDERSTANDING NURSE CREATED COGNITIVE ARTIFACTS: PERSONALLY-CREATED-COGNITIVE-ARTIFACTS AS EXTERNAL REPRESENTATIONS OF DISTRIBUTED COGNITION

Manuscript 1: “Conceptual Analysis: Externalizing Nursing Knowledge” We use concept analysis to establish that the report tool nurses prepare, carry, reference, amend, and use as a temporary data repository are examples of cognitive artifacts. This tool, integrally woven throughout the work and practice of nurses, is important to cognition and clinical decision-making. Establishing the tool as a cognitive artifact will support new dimensions of study. Such studies can characterize how this report tool supports cognition, internal representation of knowledge and skills, and external representation of knowledge of the nurse. Manuscript 2: “Research Methods: Exploring Cognitive Work” The purpose of this paper is to describe a complex, cross-sectional, multi-method approach to study of personal cognitive artifacts in the clinical environment. The complex data arrays present in these cognitive artifacts warrant the use of multiple methods of data collection. Use of a less robust research design may result in an incomplete understanding of the meaning, value, content, and relationships between personal cognitive artifacts in the clinical environment and the cognitive work of the user. Manuscript 3: “Making the Cognitive Work of Registered Nurses Visible” Purpose: Knowledge representations and structures are created and used by registered nurses to guide patient care. Understanding is limited regarding how these knowledge representations, or cognitive artifacts, contribute to working memory, prioritization, organization, cognition, and decision-making. The purpose of this study was to identify and characterize the role a specific cognitive artifact knowledge representation and structure as it contributed to the cognitive work of the registered nurse. Methods: Data collection was completed, using qualitative research methods, by shadowing and interviewing 25 registered nurses. Data analysis employed triangulation and iterative analytic processes. Results: Nurse cognitive artifacts support recall, data evaluation, decision-making, organization, and prioritization. These cognitive artifacts demonstrated spatial, longitudinal, chronologic, visual, and personal cues to support the cognitive work of nurses. Conclusions: Nurse cognitive artifacts are an important adjunct to the cognitive work of nurses, and directly support patient care. Nurses need to be able to configure their cognitive artifact in ways that are meaningful and support their internal knowledge representations.

External assessment of myocardial glucose metabolism with $\sp{18}$F-2 -deoxy-2 -fluoro-D-glucose

Despite the popularity of the positron emitting glucose analog, ($\sp{18}$F) -2-deoxy-2-fluoro-D-glucose (2FDG), for the noninvasive "metabolic imaging" of organs with positron emission tomography (PET), the physiological basis for the tracer has not been tested, and the potential of 2FDG for the rapid kinetic analysis of altered glucose metabolism in the intact heart has not been fully exploited. We, therefore, developed a quantitative method to characterize metabolic changes of myocardial glucose metabolism noninvasively and with high temporal resolution.^ The first objective of the work was to provide direct evidence that the initial steps in the metabolism of 2FDG are the same as for glucose and that 2FDG is retained by the tissue in proportion to the rate of glucose utilization. The second objective was to characterize the kinetic changes in myocardial glucose transport and phosphorylation in response to changes in work load, competing substrates, acute ischemia and reperfusion, and the addition of insulin. To assess changes in myocardial glucose metabolism isolated working rat hearts were perfused with glucose and 2FDG. Tissue uptake of 2FDG and the input function were measured on-line by external detection. The steady state rate of 2FDG phosphorylation was determined by graphical analysis of 2FDG time-activity curves.^ The rate of 2FDG uptake was linear with time and the tracer was retained in its phosphorylated form. Tissue accumulation of 2FDG decreased within seconds with a reduction in work load, in the presence of competing substrates, and during reperfusion after global ischemia. Thus, most interventions known to alter glucose metabolism induced rapid parallel changes in 2FDG uptake. By contrast, insulin caused a significant increase in 2FDG accumulation only in hearts from fasted animals when perfused at a sub-physiological work load. The mechanism for this phenomenon is not known but may be related to the existence of two different glucose transporter systems and/or glycogen metabolism in the myocardial cell.^ It is concluded that (1) 2FDG traces glucose uptake and phosphorylation in the isolated working rat heart; and (2) early and transient kinetic changes in glucose metabolism can be monitored with high temporal resolution with 2FDG and a simple positron coincidence counting system. The new method has revealed transients of myocardial glucose metabolism, which would have remained unnoticed with conventional methods. These transients are not only important for the interpretation of glucose metabolic PET scans, but also provide insights into mechanisms of glucose transport and phosphorylation in heart muscle. ^

Independencia del auditor de estados contables en Argentina

En el contexto actual de los negocios y la sociedad, el ciclo de vida de un ente gira en torno a la información que puede percibir, obtener, generar y principalmente saber utilizar. Si no logra alcanzar conclusiones acertadas en base a ella, está en clara desventaja respecto de otros entes. Lo único constante en la sociedad contemporánea es el cambio. Adaptarse a él conlleva que los administradores y propietarios de un ente deban enfrentar una permanente toma de decisiones. Para que las mismas sean adecuadas, deben estar basadas en información pertinente, confiable, aproximada a la realidad, esencial, neutral, íntegra, verificable, sistemática, comparable, clara, oportuna y cuyos beneficios sean mayores a los costos que implica obtenerla. Esa información es ni más ni menos que la interpretación de un conjunto de datos de diversa índole, contables, financieros, económicos, etc. La clave del funcionamiento efectivo y eficiente del mundo económico es contar con información oportuna y completa que permita la adecuada toma de decisiones de los diversos usuarios de la misma.

El rol del auditor operativo

Esta investigación está orientada a brindar herramientas y conceptos básicos al auditor operativo, que le permitan interactuar con los medios y técnicas de procesamiento electrónico de datos, a los efectos de cumplimentar adecuadamente la función profesional en la auditoria de sistemas computarizados, abarcando el análisis de riesgos y amenzas, como así también los aspectos más relevantes del delito informático.