905 resultados para Expectation Maximization


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Adhesively bonded repairs offer an attractive option for repair of aluminium structures, compared to more traditional methods such as fastening or welding. The single-strap (SS) and double-strap (DS) repairs are very straightforward to execute but stresses in the adhesive layer peak at the overlap ends. The DS repair requires both sides of the damaged structures to be reachable for repair, which is often not possible. In strap repairs, with the patches bonded at the outer surfaces, some limitations emerge such as the weight, aerodynamics and aesthetics. To minimize these effects, SS and DS repairs with embedded patches were evaluated in this work, such that the patches are flush with the adherends. For this purpose, in this work standard SS and DS repairs, and also with the patches embedded in the adherends, were tested under tension to allow the optimization of some repair variables such as the overlap length (LO) and type of adhesive, thus allowing the maximization of the repair strength. The effect of embedding the patch/patches on the fracture modes and failure loads was compared with finite elements (FE) analysis. The FE analysis was performed in ABAQUS® and cohesive zone modelling was used for the simulation of damage onset and growth in the adhesive layer. The comparison with the test data revealed an accurate prediction for all kinds of joints and provided some principles regarding this technique.

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Trabalho de projeto apresentado ao Instituto Superior de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Contabilidade e Finanças, sob a orientação do Mestre Paulino Manuel Leite da Silva

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The integration of growing amounts of distributed generation in power systems, namely at distribution networks level, has been fostered by energy policies in several countries around the world, including in Europe. This intensive integration of distributed, non-dispatchable, and natural sources based generation (including wind power) has caused several changes in the operation and planning of power systems and of electricity markets. Sometimes the available non-dispatchable generation is higher than the demand. This generation must be used; otherwise it is wasted if not stored or used to supply additional demand. New policies and market rules, as well as new players, are needed in order to competitively integrate all the resources. The methodology proposed in this paper aims at the maximization of the social welfare in a distribution network operated by a virtual power player that aggregates and manages the available energy resources. When facing a situation of excessive non-dispatchable generation, including wind power, real time pricing is applied in order to induce the increase of consumption so that wind curtailment is minimized. This method is especially useful when actual and day-ahead resources forecast differ significantly. The distribution network characteristics and concerns are addressed by including the network constraints in the optimization model. The proposed methodology has been implemented in GAMS optimization tool and its application is illustrated in this paper using a real 937-bus distribution network with 20.310 consumers and 548 distributed generators, some of them non-dispatchable and with must take contracts. The implemented scenario corresponds to a real day in Portuguese power system.

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In this manuscript we tackle the problem of semidistributed user selection with distributed linear precoding for sum rate maximization in multiuser multicell systems. A set of adjacent base stations (BS) form a cluster in order to perform coordinated transmission to cell-edge users, and coordination is carried out through a central processing unit (CU). However, the message exchange between BSs and the CU is limited to scheduling control signaling and no user data or channel state information (CSI) exchange is allowed. In the considered multicell coordinated approach, each BS has its own set of cell-edge users and transmits only to one intended user while interference to non-intended users at other BSs is suppressed by signal steering (precoding). We use two distributed linear precoding schemes, Distributed Zero Forcing (DZF) and Distributed Virtual Signalto-Interference-plus-Noise Ratio (DVSINR). Considering multiple users per cell and the backhaul limitations, the BSs rely on local CSI to solve the user selection problem. First we investigate how the signal-to-noise-ratio (SNR) regime and the number of antennas at the BSs impact the effective channel gain (the magnitude of the channels after precoding) and its relationship with multiuser diversity. Considering that user selection must be based on the type of implemented precoding, we develop metrics of compatibility (estimations of the effective channel gains) that can be computed from local CSI at each BS and reported to the CU for scheduling decisions. Based on such metrics, we design user selection algorithms that can find a set of users that potentially maximizes the sum rate. Numerical results show the effectiveness of the proposed metrics and algorithms for different configurations of users and antennas at the base stations.

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Propaganda represented the sacrifice of soldiers in war and praised the power of the country. It has been around these images that all over the world entire populations were mobilized on the expectation of victory. Through the static image of printed posters or the newspaper news projected in cinemas all over the globe, governments sought to promote a patriotic spirit, encouraging the effort of individual sacrifice by sending a clear set of messages that directly appealed to the voluntary enlistment in the armies, messages that explained the important of rationing essential goods, of the intensification of food production or the purchase of war bonds, exacerbating feelings, arousing emotions and projecting an image divided between the notion of superiority and the idea of fear of the opponent. From press, in the First World War, to radio in World War II, to television and cinema from the 1950s onwards, propaganda proved to be a weapon as deadly as those managed by soldiers in the battlefield. That’s why it is essential to analyse and discuss the topic of War and Propaganda in the Twentieth Century. This conference is organized by the IHC and the CEIS20 and is part of the Centennial Program of the Great War, organized by the IHC, and the International Centennial Program coordinated by the Imperial War Museum in London.

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A PhD Dissertation, presented as part of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy from the NOVA - School of Business and Economics

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Emigration has been a very present word in Portugal. Due to the effects of the Economic Crisis and the Memorandum of Understanding policies, we have witnessed a significant yearly migration outflow of people searching for better conditions. This study aims to measure the factors affecting this flow as well as how much the probability of emigrating has evolved during the years bridging 2006 to 2012. I shall consider the decision of emigrating as Discrete Choice Random Utility maximization use a conditional Logit framework to model the probability choice for 31 OECD countries of destination. Moreover I will ascertain the compensating variation required such that the probability of choice in 2012 is adjusted back to 2007 values, keeping all other variables constant. I replicate this exercise using the unemployment rate instead of income. The most likely country of destination is Luxembourg throughout the years analyzed and the values obtained for the CV is of circa 1.700€ in terms of Income per capita and -11% in terms of the unemployment rate adjustment.

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Polysaccharides are gaining increasing attention as potential environmental friendly and sustainable building blocks in many fields of the (bio)chemical industry. The microbial production of polysaccharides is envisioned as a promising path, since higher biomass growth rates are possible and therefore higher productivities may be achieved compared to vegetable or animal polysaccharides sources. This Ph.D. thesis focuses on the modeling and optimization of a particular microbial polysaccharide, namely the production of extracellular polysaccharides (EPS) by the bacterial strain Enterobacter A47. Enterobacter A47 was found to be a metabolically versatile organism in terms of its adaptability to complex media, notably capable of achieving high growth rates in media containing glycerol byproduct from the biodiesel industry. However, the industrial implementation of this production process is still hampered due to a largely unoptimized process. Kinetic rates from the bioreactor operation are heavily dependent on operational parameters such as temperature, pH, stirring and aeration rate. The increase of culture broth viscosity is a common feature of this culture and has a major impact on the overall performance. This fact complicates the mathematical modeling of the process, limiting the possibility to understand, control and optimize productivity. In order to tackle this difficulty, data-driven mathematical methodologies such as Artificial Neural Networks can be employed to incorporate additional process data to complement the known mathematical description of the fermentation kinetics. In this Ph.D. thesis, we have adopted such an hybrid modeling framework that enabled the incorporation of temperature, pH and viscosity effects on the fermentation kinetics in order to improve the dynamical modeling and optimization of the process. A model-based optimization method was implemented that enabled to design bioreactor optimal control strategies in the sense of EPS productivity maximization. It is also critical to understand EPS synthesis at the level of the bacterial metabolism, since the production of EPS is a tightly regulated process. Methods of pathway analysis provide a means to unravel the fundamental pathways and their controls in bioprocesses. In the present Ph.D. thesis, a novel methodology called Principal Elementary Mode Analysis (PEMA) was developed and implemented that enabled to identify which cellular fluxes are activated under different conditions of temperature and pH. It is shown that differences in these two parameters affect the chemical composition of EPS, hence they are critical for the regulation of the product synthesis. In future studies, the knowledge provided by PEMA could foster the development of metabolically meaningful control strategies that target the EPS sugar content and oder product quality parameters.

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A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Double Degree in Economics and International Business from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics and Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa

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Nowadays, a significant number of banks in Portugal are facing a bank-branch restructuring problem, and Millennium BCP is not an exception. The closure of branches is a major component of profit maximization through the reduction in operational and personnel costs but also an opportunity to approach the idea of “baking of future” and start thinking on the benefits of the digital era. This dissertation centers on a current high-impact organizational problem addressed by the company and consists in a proposal of optimization to the model that Millennium BCP uses. Even though measures of performance are usually considered the most important elements in evaluating the viability of branches, there is evidence suggesting that other general factors can be important to assess branch potential, such as the influx on branches, business dimensions of a branch and its location, which will be addressed in this project.

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The objective of this paper is to perform an analysis of the marketing strategy of Lufthansa and Emirates in Germany. Since both airlines use a similar approach to increase brand awareness an in-depth analysis is implemented in order to identify potential differences. Hereby, consumer insights about the perception and expectation travellers have in common will be analyzed and assessed with quantitative data. Both airlines are well positioned in terms of their marketing strategy, but when Emirates is strengthen its marketing campaign with that pace, the Gulf carrier will certainly make use of its economic strength and can become a frightening threat for the Lufthansa Group on long-haul destinations. Finally, recommendations for future marketing activities for both airlines will be given.

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Restriction site-associated DNA sequencing (RADseq) provides researchers with the ability to record genetic polymorphism across thousands of loci for nonmodel organisms, potentially revolutionizing the field of molecular ecology. However, as with other genotyping methods, RADseq is prone to a number of sources of error that may have consequential effects for population genetic inferences, and these have received only limited attention in terms of the estimation and reporting of genotyping error rates. Here we use individual sample replicates, under the expectation of identical genotypes, to quantify genotyping error in the absence of a reference genome. We then use sample replicates to (i) optimize de novo assembly parameters within the program Stacks, by minimizing error and maximizing the retrieval of informative loci; and (ii) quantify error rates for loci, alleles and single-nucleotide polymorphisms. As an empirical example, we use a double-digest RAD data set of a nonmodel plant species, Berberis alpina, collected from high-altitude mountains in Mexico.

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Préface My thesis consists of three essays where I consider equilibrium asset prices and investment strategies when the market is likely to experience crashes and possibly sharp windfalls. Although each part is written as an independent and self contained article, the papers share a common behavioral approach in representing investors preferences regarding to extremal returns. Investors utility is defined over their relative performance rather than over their final wealth position, a method first proposed by Markowitz (1952b) and by Kahneman and Tversky (1979), that I extend to incorporate preferences over extremal outcomes. With the failure of the traditional expected utility models in reproducing the observed stylized features of financial markets, the Prospect theory of Kahneman and Tversky (1979) offered the first significant alternative to the expected utility paradigm by considering that people focus on gains and losses rather than on final positions. Under this setting, Barberis, Huang, and Santos (2000) and McQueen and Vorkink (2004) were able to build a representative agent optimization model which solution reproduced some of the observed risk premium and excess volatility. The research in behavioral finance is relatively new and its potential still to explore. The three essays composing my thesis propose to use and extend this setting to study investors behavior and investment strategies in a market where crashes and sharp windfalls are likely to occur. In the first paper, the preferences of a representative agent, relative to time varying positive and negative extremal thresholds are modelled and estimated. A new utility function that conciliates between expected utility maximization and tail-related performance measures is proposed. The model estimation shows that the representative agent preferences reveals a significant level of crash aversion and lottery-pursuit. Assuming a single risky asset economy the proposed specification is able to reproduce some of the distributional features exhibited by financial return series. The second part proposes and illustrates a preference-based asset allocation model taking into account investors crash aversion. Using the skewed t distribution, optimal allocations are characterized as a resulting tradeoff between the distribution four moments. The specification highlights the preference for odd moments and the aversion for even moments. Qualitatively, optimal portfolios are analyzed in terms of firm characteristics and in a setting that reflects real-time asset allocation, a systematic over-performance is obtained compared to the aggregate stock market. Finally, in my third article, dynamic option-based investment strategies are derived and illustrated for investors presenting downside loss aversion. The problem is solved in closed form when the stock market exhibits stochastic volatility and jumps. The specification of downside loss averse utility functions allows corresponding terminal wealth profiles to be expressed as options on the stochastic discount factor contingent on the loss aversion level. Therefore dynamic strategies reduce to the replicating portfolio using exchange traded and well selected options, and the risky stock.

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Työn tavoitteena oli suunnitella ja toteuttaa sähkön ja lämmön yhteistuotantolaitoksen tuotannon optimointi. Optimoinnin kriteerinä on tuotannon kannattavuus. Pyrittiin luomaan optimointimalli, joka ottaa optimoinnissa huomioon erityisesti kaukolämmön kulutusennusteen muutokset sekä sähkön pörssihinnan vaihtelut. Tuotannon kannalta olennaisin kriteeri on kaukolämmön kulutusennusteen pohjalta arvioidun kaukolämpökuorman tyydyttäminen mahdollisimman tehokkaasti ja taloudellisesti. Sähkön tuotannon merkittävimmiksi kriteereiksi muodostuivat sähkön tuotannon ennustettavuus ja tuotannon maksimointi sähkön pörssihinnan asettamissa puitteissa. Optimointiohjelmaa ei ole tarkoitus kytkeä suoraan voimalaitoksen ajojärjestelmään, vaan siitä on tarkoitus tulla erillinen ajosuunnittelijan työkalu. Itse ajosuunnitteluun vaikuttaa usein monipuolisemmat suunnittelukriteerit kuin pelkästään tuotannon tuottavuus. Näiden eri kriteerien painotuksia ei ohjelmassa huomioida, vaan ne päättää ajosuunnittelija. Tuloksena saatiin aikaan optimointiohjelma, joka laskee valittujen tuotantovaihtoehtojen kokonaistuotot eri kaukolämmön kulutusennusteiden ja sähkön pörssihintaennusteiden pohjalta.

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Purpose To show that differences in the extent to which firms engage in unrelated diversification can be attributed to differences in ownership structure. Methodology/approach We draw on longitudinal data and use a panel analysis specification to test our hypotheses. Findings We find that unrelated diversification destroys value; pressure-sensitive Anglo-American owners in a firm’s equity reduce unrelated diversification, whereas pressure-resistant domestic owners increase unrelated diversification; the greater the firm’s free cash flow, the greater the negative effect of pressure-sensitive Anglo-American owners on unrelated diversification. Research limitations/implications We contribute to corporate governance and strategy research by bringing in owners’ institutional origin as a shaper of owner preferences in particular with regards to unrelated diversification. Future research may expand our investigation to more than one home institutional context, and theorize on institutional origin effects beyond the dichotomy between Anglo-American and non-Anglo-American (not oriented toward shareholder value maximization) owners. Practical implications Policy makers, financial analysts, owners, and managers may want to reflect about the implications of ownership structure, as well as promoting or joining corporations with particular ownership configurations. Social implications A shareholder value-destroying strategy, such as unrelated diversification has adverse consequences for society at large, in terms of opportunity costs, that is, resources could be allocated to value-creating activities instead. Promoting an ownership configuration that creates value should contribute to social welfare. Originality/value Owners may not be exclusively driven by shareholder value maximization, but can be influenced by normative beliefs (biases) stemming from the institutional context they originate from.