On the impact of disproportional samples in credit scoring models: An application to a Brazilian bank data

Statistical methods have been widely employed to assess the capabilities of credit scoring classification models in order to reduce the risk of wrong decisions when granting credit facilities to clients. The predictive quality of a classification model can be evaluated based on measures such as sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, accuracy, correlation coefficients and information theoretical measures, such as relative entropy and mutual information. In this paper we analyze the performance of a naive logistic regression model (Hosmer & Lemeshow, 1989) and a logistic regression with state-dependent sample selection model (Cramer, 2004) applied to simulated data. Also, as a case study, the methodology is illustrated on a data set extracted from a Brazilian bank portfolio. Our simulation results so far revealed that there is no statistically significant difference in terms of predictive capacity between the naive logistic regression models and the logistic regression with state-dependent sample selection models. However, there is strong difference between the distributions of the estimated default probabilities from these two statistical modeling techniques, with the naive logistic regression models always underestimating such probabilities, particularly in the presence of balanced samples. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Tracking the impact of translational research in psychiatry: state of the art and perspectives

Personalized treatments have become a primary goal in translational psychiatric research. They include the identification of neural circuits associated with psychiatric disorders and definition of treatment according to individual characteristics. Many new tools and technologies have been developed but further efforts are required to provide clues on how these scientific advances in psychiatry may be translated into more effective therapeutic approaches. Obstacles to the progress of translational psychiatry also involve numerous scientific, financial, ethical, logistics and regulatory aspects. Also, the goal of DSM-5 to expand “signs and symptoms” classification to incorporate biological measures may help the development of new multifactorial and dimensional models able to better understand the pathophysiology of psychiatric disorders and develop improved treatments. Finally, a better understanding on the significant response variability, cognitive functioning, role of comorbidities and treatment-resistant cases are critical for the development of prevention and intervention strategies that are more effective.

Sandflies (Diptera, Psychodidae) from forest areas in Botucatu municipality, central western São Paulo State, Brazil

Abstract Background The study of the distribution and ecology of sandfly species is essential for epidemiological surveillance and estimation of the transmission risk of Leishmania spp. infection. Findings In the present study, sandflies were captured in native fragmented forest areas in Rubião Júnior district, Botucatu municipality, São Paulo state, Brazil, between September 2001 and January 2005. A minimum of two automatic light traps were installed per night from 6 pm to 8 am, in different months, resulting in approximately 900 collecting hours. During this period, 216 sandfly specimens of sixteen species were captured. Pintomyia monticola and Brumptomyia guimaraesi were the most abundant with 56 specimens (25.93%) captured per species, followed by Pintomyia fischeri 28 (12.96%) and Psathyromyia pascalei 18 (8.33%). Other captured species were Lutzomyia amarali, Sciopemyia sordellii, Psathyromyia aragaoi, Nyssomyia whitmani, Migonemyia migonei, Pintomyia bianchigalatiae, Pintomyia misionensis, Brumptomyia carvalheiroi, Brumptomyia cardosoi, Brumptomyia cunhai, Brumptomyia nitzulescui, Brumptomyia brumpti and Brumptomyia spp. represented by 58 (26.85%) specimens. Conclusions Although less frequently found, the presence of Pintomyia fischeri, Nyssomyia whitmani and Migonemyia migonei, known vectors of Leishmania braziliensis, indicates risk of American cutaneous leishmaniasis occurrence. Moreover, the absence of Lutzomyia longipalpis-the main vector of Leishmania infantum chagasi, which is the agent of American visceral leishmaniasis-suggests that there is no risk of introduction and establishment of this disease in the studied area.

Experimental models of autoimmune inflammatory ocular diseases

Ocular inflammation is one of the leading causes of blindness and loss of vision. Human uveitis is a complex and heterogeneous group of diseases characterized by inflammation of intraocular tissues. The eye may be the only organ involved, or uveitis may be part of a systemic disease. A significant number of cases are of unknown etiology and are labeled idiopathic. Animal models have been developed to the study of the physiopathogenesis of autoimmune uveitis due to the difficulty in obtaining human eye inflamed tissues for experiments. Most of those models are induced by injection of specific photoreceptors proteins (e.g., S-antigen, interphotoreceptor retinoid-binding protein, rhodopsin, recoverin, phosducin). Non-retinal antigens, including melanin-associated proteins and myelin basic protein, are also good inducers of uveitis in animals. Understanding the basic mechanisms and pathogenesis of autoimmune ocular diseases are essential for the development of new treatment approaches and therapeutic agents. The present review describes the main experimental models of autoimmune ocular inflammatory diseases.

Reliability of buildings in service limit state for maximum horizontal displacements

Brazilian design code ABNT NBR6118:2003 - Design of Concrete Structures - Procedures - [1] proposes the use of simplified models for the consideration of non-linear material behavior in the evaluation of horizontal displacements in buildings. These models penalize stiffness of columns and beams, representing the effects of concrete cracking and avoiding costly physical non-linear analyses. The objectives of the present paper are to investigate the accuracy and uncertainty of these simplified models, as well as to evaluate the reliabilities of structures designed following ABNT NBR6118:2003[1&] in the service limit state for horizontal displacements. Model error statistics are obtained from 42 representative plane frames. The reliabilities of three typical (4, 8 and 12 floor) buildings are evaluated, using the simplified models and a rigorous, physical and geometrical non-linear analysis. Results show that the 70/70 (column/beam stiffness reduction) model is more accurate and less conservative than the 80/40 model. Results also show that ABNT NBR6118:2003 [1] design criteria for horizontal displacement limit states (masonry damage according to ACI 435.3R-68(1984) [10]) are conservative, and result in reliability indexes which are larger than those recommended in EUROCODE [2] for irreversible service limit states.

Statistical models for experimental model membranes.

Biological membranes are constituted from lipid bilayers and proteins. Investigation of protein-membrane interaction, essential for biological function of cells, must rest upon solid knowledge of lipid bilayer behavior. Thus, extensive studies of an experimental model for membranes, lipid bilayers in water solution, have been undertaken in the last decades. These systems present structural, thermal and electrical properties which depend on temperature, ionic strength or concentration. In this talk, we shall discuss statistical models for lipid bilayers, as well as the relation between their properties and results for properties of lipid dispersions investigated by the laboratories supervised by Teresa Lamy (IF-USP) and Amando Ito (FFCL-USP).

The role of asymmetries in rock-paper-scissors biodiversity models.

The maintenance of biodiversity is a long standing puzzle in ecology. It is a classical result that if the interactions of the species in an ecosystem are chosen in a random way, then complex ecosystems can't sustain themselves, meaning that the structure of the interactions between the species must be a central component on the preservation of biodiversity and on the stability of ecosystems. The rock-paper-scissors model is one of the paradigmatic models that study how biodiversity is maintained. In this model 3 species dominate each other in a cyclic way (mimicking a trophic cycle), that is, rock dominates scissors, that dominates paper, that dominates rock. In the original version of this model, this dominance obeys a 'Z IND 3' symmetry, in the sense that the strength of dominance is always the same. In this work, we break this symmetry, studying the effects of the addition of an asymmetry parameter. In the usual model, in a two dimensional lattice, the species distribute themselves according to spiral patterns, that can be explained by the complex Landau-Guinzburg equation. With the addition of asymmetry, new spatial patterns appear during the transient and the system either ends in a state with spirals, similar to the ones of the original model, or in a state where unstable spatial patterns dominate or in a state where only one species survives (and biodiversity is lost).

Paracoccidoides brasiliensis 30 kDa adhesin: identification as a 14-3-3 protein, cloning and subcellular localization in infection models

Paracoccidoides brasiliensis adhesion to lung epithelial cells is considered an essential event for the establishment of infection and different proteins participate in this process. One of these proteins is a 30 kDa adhesin, pI 4.9 that was described as a laminin ligand in previous studies, and it was more highly expressed in more virulent P. brasiliensis isolates. This protein may contribute to the virulence of this important fungal pathogen. Using Edman degradation and mass spectrometry analysis, this 30 kDa adhesin was identified as a 14-3-3 protein. These proteins are a conserved group of small acidic proteins involved in a variety of processes in eukaryotic organisms. However, the exact function of these proteins in some processes remains unknown. Thus, the goal of the present study was to characterize the role of this protein during the interaction between the fungus and its host. To achieve this goal, we cloned, expressed the 14-3-3 protein in a heterologous system and determined its subcellular localization in in vitro and in vivo infection models. Immunocytochemical analysis revealed the ubiquitous distribution of this protein in the yeast form of P. brasiliensis, with some concentration in the cytoplasm. Additionally, this 14-3-3 protein was also present in P. brasiliensis cells at the sites of infection in C57BL/6 mice intratracheally infected with P. brasiliensis yeast cells for 72 h (acute infections) and 30 days (chronic infection). An apparent increase in the levels of the 14-3-3 protein in the cell wall of the fungus was also noted during the interaction between P. brasiliensis and A549 cells, suggesting that this protein may be involved in host-parasite interactions, since inhibition assays with the protein and this antibody decreased P. brasiliensis adhesion to A549 epithelial cells. Our data may lead to a better understanding of P. brasiliensis interactions with host tissues and paracoccidioidomycosis pathogenesis.

Development of musculoskeletal models for the design and the pre-clinical validation of hip resurfacing prosthesis

Background. The surgical treatment of dysfunctional hips is a severe condition for the patient and a costly therapy for the public health. Hip resurfacing techniques seem to hold the promise of various advantages over traditional THR, with particular attention to young and active patients. Although the lesson provided in the past by many branches of engineering is that success in designing competitive products can be achieved only by predicting the possible scenario of failure, to date the understanding of the implant quality is poorly pre-clinically addressed. Thus revision is the only delayed and reliable end point for assessment. The aim of the present work was to model the musculoskeletal system so as to develop a protocol for predicting failure of hip resurfacing prosthesis. Methods. Preliminary studies validated the technique for the generation of subject specific finite element (FE) models of long bones from Computed Thomography data. The proposed protocol consisted in the numerical analysis of the prosthesis biomechanics by deterministic and statistic studies so as to assess the risk of biomechanical failure on the different operative conditions the implant might face in a population of interest during various activities of daily living. Physiological conditions were defined including the variability of the anatomy, bone densitometry, surgery uncertainties and published boundary conditions at the hip. The protocol was tested by analysing a successful design on the market and a new prototype of a resurfacing prosthesis. Results. The intrinsic accuracy of models on bone stress predictions (RMSE < 10%) was aligned to the current state of the art in this field. The accuracy of prediction on the bone-prosthesis contact mechanics was also excellent (< 0.001 mm). The sensitivity of models prediction to uncertainties on modelling parameter was found below 8.4%. The analysis of the successful design resulted in a very good agreement with published retrospective studies. The geometry optimisation of the new prototype lead to a final design with a low risk of failure. The statistical analysis confirmed the minimal risk of the optimised design over the entire population of interest. The performances of the optimised design showed a significant improvement with respect to the first prototype (+35%). Limitations. On the authors opinion the major limitation of this study is on boundary conditions. The muscular forces and the hip joint reaction were derived from the few data available in the literature, which can be considered significant but hardly representative of the entire variability of boundary conditions the implant might face over the patients population. This moved the focus of the research on modelling the musculoskeletal system; the ongoing activity is to develop subject-specific musculoskeletal models of the lower limb from medical images. Conclusions. The developed protocol was able to accurately predict known clinical outcomes when applied to a well-established device and, to support the design optimisation phase providing important information on critical characteristics of the patients when applied to a new prosthesis. The presented approach does have a relevant generality that would allow the extension of the protocol to a large set of orthopaedic scenarios with minor changes. Hence, a failure mode analysis criterion can be considered a suitable tool in developing new orthopaedic devices.

Creep and damage models for the service behaviour of structural members

Deformability is often a crucial to the conception of many civil-engineering structural elements. Also, design is all the more burdensome if both long- and short-term deformability has to be considered. In this thesis, long- and short-term deformability has been studied from the material and the structural modelling point of view. Moreover, two materials have been handled: pultruded composites and concrete. A new finite element model for thin-walled beams has been introduced. As a main assumption, cross-sections rigid are considered rigid in their plane; this hypothesis replaces that of the classical beam theory of plane cross-sections in the deformed state. That also allows reducing the total number of degrees of freedom, and therefore making analysis faster compared with twodimensional finite elements. Longitudinal direction warping is left free, allowing describing phenomena such as the shear lag. The new finite-element model has been first applied to concrete thin-walled beams (such as roof high span girders or bridge girders) subject to instantaneous service loadings. Concrete in his cracked state has been considered through a smeared crack model for beams under bending. At a second stage, the FE-model has been extended to the viscoelastic field and applied to pultruded composite beams under sustained loadings. The generalized Maxwell model has been adopted. As far as materials are concerned, long-term creep tests have been carried out on pultruded specimens. Both tension and shear tests have been executed. Some specimen has been strengthened with carbon fibre plies to reduce short- and long- term deformability. Tests have been done in a climate room and specimens kept 2 years under constant load in time. As for concrete, a model for tertiary creep has been proposed. The basic idea is to couple the UMLV linear creep model with a damage model in order to describe nonlinearity. An effective strain tensor, weighting the total and the elasto-damaged strain tensors, controls damage evolution through the damage loading function. Creep strains are related to the effective stresses (defined by damage models) and so associated to the intact material.

Combinatorial and Robust Optimisation Models and Algorithms for Railway Applications

This thesis deals with an investigation of combinatorial and robust optimisation models to solve railway problems. Railway applications represent a challenging area for operations research. In fact, most problems in this context can be modelled as combinatorial optimisation problems, in which the number of feasible solutions is finite. Yet, despite the astonishing success in the field of combinatorial optimisation, the current state of algorithmic research faces severe difficulties with highly-complex and data-intensive applications such as those dealing with optimisation issues in large-scale transportation networks. One of the main issues concerns imperfect information. The idea of Robust Optimisation, as a way to represent and handle mathematically systems with not precisely known data, dates back to 1970s. Unfortunately, none of those techniques proved to be successfully applicable in one of the most complex and largest in scale (transportation) settings: that of railway systems. Railway optimisation deals with planning and scheduling problems over several time horizons. Disturbances are inevitable and severely affect the planning process. Here we focus on two compelling aspects of planning: robust planning and online (real-time) planning.

Specification and Verification of Declarative Open Interaction Models - A Logic-based framework

The advent of distributed and heterogeneous systems has laid the foundation for the birth of new architectural paradigms, in which many separated and autonomous entities collaborate and interact to the aim of achieving complex strategic goals, impossible to be accomplished on their own. A non exhaustive list of systems targeted by such paradigms includes Business Process Management, Clinical Guidelines and Careflow Protocols, Service-Oriented and Multi-Agent Systems. It is largely recognized that engineering these systems requires novel modeling techniques. In particular, many authors are claiming that an open, declarative perspective is needed to complement the closed, procedural nature of the state of the art specification languages. For example, the ConDec language has been recently proposed to target the declarative and open specification of Business Processes, overcoming the over-specification and over-constraining issues of classical procedural approaches. On the one hand, the success of such novel modeling languages strongly depends on their usability by non-IT savvy: they must provide an appealing, intuitive graphical front-end. On the other hand, they must be prone to verification, in order to guarantee the trustworthiness and reliability of the developed model, as well as to ensure that the actual executions of the system effectively comply with it. In this dissertation, we claim that Computational Logic is a suitable framework for dealing with the specification, verification, execution, monitoring and analysis of these systems. We propose to adopt an extended version of the ConDec language for specifying interaction models with a declarative, open flavor. We show how all the (extended) ConDec constructs can be automatically translated to the CLIMB Computational Logic-based language, and illustrate how its corresponding reasoning techniques can be successfully exploited to provide support and verification capabilities along the whole life cycle of the targeted systems.

Atmospheric radiative transfer in multiple scattering conditions. Application to NWP models.

High spectral resolution radiative transfer (RT) codes are essential tools in the study of the radiative energy transfer in the Earth atmosphere and a support for the development of parameterizations for fast RT codes used in climate and weather prediction models. Cirrus clouds cover permanently 30% of the Earth's surface, representing an important contribution to the Earth-atmosphere radiation balance. The work has been focussed on the development of the RT model LBLMS. The model, widely tested in the infra-red spectral range, has been extended to the short wave spectrum and it has been used in comparison with airborne and satellite measurements to study the optical properties of cirrus clouds. A new database of single scattering properties has been developed for mid latitude cirrus clouds. Ice clouds are treated as a mixture of ice crystals with various habits. The optical properties of the mixture are tested in comparison to radiometric measurements in selected case studies. Finally, a parameterization of the mixture for application to weather prediction and global circulation models has been developed. The bulk optical properties of ice crystals are parameterized as functions of the effective dimension of measured particle size distributions that are representative of mid latitude cirrus clouds. Tests with the Limited Area Weather Prediction model COSMO have shown the impact of the new parameterization with respect to cirrus cloud optical properties based on ice spheres.

Technical innovations for the diagnosis and the rehabilitation of motor and perceptive impairments of the child with Cerebral Palsy

The treatment of the Cerebral Palsy (CP) is considered as the “core problem” for the whole field of the pediatric rehabilitation. The reason why this pathology has such a primary role, can be ascribed to two main aspects. First of all CP is the form of disability most frequent in childhood (one new case per 500 birth alive, (1)), secondarily the functional recovery of the “spastic” child is, historically, the clinical field in which the majority of the therapeutic methods and techniques (physiotherapy, orthotic, pharmacologic, orthopedic-surgical, neurosurgical) were first applied and tested. The currently accepted definition of CP – Group of disorders of the development of movement and posture causing activity limitation (2) – is the result of a recent update by the World Health Organization to the language of the International Classification of Functioning Disability and Health, from the original proposal of Ingram – A persistent but not unchangeable disorder of posture and movement – dated 1955 (3). This definition considers CP as a permanent ailment, i.e. a “fixed” condition, that however can be modified both functionally and structurally by means of child spontaneous evolution and treatments carried out during childhood. The lesion that causes the palsy, happens in a structurally immature brain in the pre-, peri- or post-birth period (but only during the firsts months of life). The most frequent causes of CP are: prematurity, insufficient cerebral perfusion, arterial haemorrhage, venous infarction, hypoxia caused by various origin (for example from the ingestion of amniotic liquid), malnutrition, infection and maternal or fetal poisoning. In addition to these causes, traumas and malformations have to be included. The lesion, whether focused or spread over the nervous system, impairs the whole functioning of the Central Nervous System (CNS). As a consequence, they affect the construction of the adaptive functions (4), first of all posture control, locomotion and manipulation. The palsy itself does not vary over time, however it assumes an unavoidable “evolutionary” feature when during growth the child is requested to meet new and different needs through the construction of new and different functions. It is essential to consider that clinically CP is not only a direct expression of structural impairment, that is of etiology, pathogenesis and lesion timing, but it is mainly the manifestation of the path followed by the CNS to “re”-construct the adaptive functions “despite” the presence of the damage. “Palsy” is “the form of the function that is implemented by an individual whose CNS has been damaged in order to satisfy the demands coming from the environment” (4). Therefore it is only possible to establish general relations between lesion site, nature and size, and palsy and recovery processes. It is quite common to observe that children with very similar neuroimaging can have very different clinical manifestations of CP and, on the other hand, children with very similar motor behaviors can have completely different lesion histories. A very clear example of this is represented by hemiplegic forms, which show bilateral hemispheric lesions in a high percentage of cases. The first section of this thesis is aimed at guiding the interpretation of CP. First of all the issue of the detection of the palsy is treated from historical viewpoint. Consequently, an extended analysis of the current definition of CP, as internationally accepted, is provided. The definition is then outlined in terms of a space dimension and then of a time dimension, hence it is highlighted where this definition is unacceptably lacking. The last part of the first section further stresses the importance of shifting from the traditional concept of CP as a palsy of development (defect analysis) towards the notion of development of palsy, i.e., as the product of the relationship that the individual however tries to dynamically build with the surrounding environment (resource semeiotics) starting and growing from a different availability of resources, needs, dreams, rights and duties (4). In the scientific and clinic community no common classification system of CP has so far been universally accepted. Besides, no standard operative method or technique have been acknowledged to effectively assess the different disabilities and impairments exhibited by children with CP. CP is still “an artificial concept, comprising several causes and clinical syndromes that have been grouped together for a convenience of management” (5). The lack of standard and common protocols able to effectively diagnose the palsy, and as a consequence to establish specific treatments and prognosis, is mainly because of the difficulty to elevate this field to a level based on scientific evidence. A solution aimed at overcoming the current incomplete treatment of CP children is represented by the clinical systematic adoption of objective tools able to measure motor defects and movement impairments. A widespread application of reliable instruments and techniques able to objectively evaluate both the form of the palsy (diagnosis) and the efficacy of the treatments provided (prognosis), constitutes a valuable method able to validate care protocols, establish the efficacy of classification systems and assess the validity of definitions. Since the ‘80s, instruments specifically oriented to the analysis of the human movement have been advantageously designed and applied in the context of CP with the aim of measuring motor deficits and, especially, gait deviations. The gait analysis (GA) technique has been increasingly used over the years to assess, analyze, classify, and support the process of clinical decisions making, allowing for a complete investigation of gait with an increased temporal and spatial resolution. GA has provided a basis for improving the outcome of surgical and nonsurgical treatments and for introducing a new modus operandi in the identification of defects and functional adaptations to the musculoskeletal disorders. Historically, the first laboratories set up for gait analysis developed their own protocol (set of procedures for data collection and for data reduction) independently, according to performances of the technologies available at that time. In particular, the stereophotogrammetric systems mainly based on optoelectronic technology, soon became a gold-standard for motion analysis. They have been successfully applied especially for scientific purposes. Nowadays the optoelectronic systems have significantly improved their performances in term of spatial and temporal resolution, however many laboratories continue to use the protocols designed on the technology available in the ‘70s and now out-of-date. Furthermore, these protocols are not coherent both for the biomechanical models and for the adopted collection procedures. In spite of these differences, GA data are shared, exchanged and interpreted irrespectively to the adopted protocol without a full awareness to what extent these protocols are compatible and comparable with each other. Following the extraordinary advances in computer science and electronics, new systems for GA no longer based on optoelectronic technology, are now becoming available. They are the Inertial and Magnetic Measurement Systems (IMMSs), based on miniature MEMS (Microelectromechanical systems) inertial sensor technology. These systems are cost effective, wearable and fully portable motion analysis systems, these features gives IMMSs the potential to be used both outside specialized laboratories and to consecutive collect series of tens of gait cycles. The recognition and selection of the most representative gait cycle is then easier and more reliable especially in CP children, considering their relevant gait cycle variability. The second section of this thesis is focused on GA. In particular, it is firstly aimed at examining the differences among five most representative GA protocols in order to assess the state of the art with respect to the inter-protocol variability. The design of a new protocol is then proposed and presented with the aim of achieving gait analysis on CP children by means of IMMS. The protocol, named ‘Outwalk’, contains original and innovative solutions oriented at obtaining joint kinematic with calibration procedures extremely comfortable for the patients. The results of a first in-vivo validation of Outwalk on healthy subjects are then provided. In particular, this study was carried out by comparing Outwalk used in combination with an IMMS with respect to a reference protocol and an optoelectronic system. In order to set a more accurate and precise comparison of the systems and the protocols, ad hoc methods were designed and an original formulation of the statistical parameter coefficient of multiple correlation was developed and effectively applied. On the basis of the experimental design proposed for the validation on healthy subjects, a first assessment of Outwalk, together with an IMMS, was also carried out on CP children. The third section of this thesis is dedicated to the treatment of walking in CP children. Commonly prescribed treatments in addressing gait abnormalities in CP children include physical therapy, surgery (orthopedic and rhizotomy), and orthoses. The orthotic approach is conservative, being reversible, and widespread in many therapeutic regimes. Orthoses are used to improve the gait of children with CP, by preventing deformities, controlling joint position, and offering an effective lever for the ankle joint. Orthoses are prescribed for the additional aims of increasing walking speed, improving stability, preventing stumbling, and decreasing muscular fatigue. The ankle-foot orthosis (AFO), with a rigid ankle, are primarily designed to prevent equinus and other foot deformities with a positive effect also on more proximal joints. However, AFOs prevent the natural excursion of the tibio-tarsic joint during the second rocker, hence hampering the natural leaning progression of the whole body under the effect of the inertia (6). A new modular (submalleolar) astragalus-calcanear orthosis, named OMAC, has recently been proposed with the intention of substituting the prescription of AFOs in those CP children exhibiting a flat and valgus-pronated foot. The aim of this section is thus to present the mechanical and technical features of the OMAC by means of an accurate description of the device. In particular, the integral document of the deposited Italian patent, is provided. A preliminary validation of OMAC with respect to AFO is also reported as resulted from an experimental campaign on diplegic CP children, during a three month period, aimed at quantitatively assessing the benefit provided by the two orthoses on walking and at qualitatively evaluating the changes in the quality of life and motor abilities. As already stated, CP is universally considered as a persistent but not unchangeable disorder of posture and movement. Conversely to this definition, some clinicians (4) have recently pointed out that movement disorders may be primarily caused by the presence of perceptive disorders, where perception is not merely the acquisition of sensory information, but an active process aimed at guiding the execution of movements through the integration of sensory information properly representing the state of one’s body and of the environment. Children with perceptive impairments show an overall fear of moving and the onset of strongly unnatural walking schemes directly caused by the presence of perceptive system disorders. The fourth section of the thesis thus deals with accurately defining the perceptive impairment exhibited by diplegic CP children. A detailed description of the clinical signs revealing the presence of the perceptive impairment, and a classification scheme of the clinical aspects of perceptual disorders is provided. In the end, a functional reaching test is proposed as an instrumental test able to disclosure the perceptive impairment. References 1. Prevalence and characteristics of children with cerebral palsy in Europe. Dev Med Child Neurol. 2002 Set;44(9):633-640. 2. Bax M, Goldstein M, Rosenbaum P, Leviton A, Paneth N, Dan B, et al. Proposed definition and classification of cerebral palsy, April 2005. Dev Med Child Neurol. 2005 Ago;47(8):571-576. 3. Ingram TT. A study of cerebral palsy in the childhood population of Edinburgh. Arch. Dis. Child. 1955 Apr;30(150):85-98. 4. Ferrari A, Cioni G. The spastic forms of cerebral palsy : a guide to the assessment of adaptive functions. Milan: Springer; 2009. 5. Olney SJ, Wright MJ. Cerebral Palsy. Campbell S et al. Physical Therapy for Children. 2nd Ed. Philadelphia: Saunders. 2000;:533-570. 6. Desloovere K, Molenaers G, Van Gestel L, Huenaerts C, Van Campenhout A, Callewaert B, et al. How can push-off be preserved during use of an ankle foot orthosis in children with hemiplegia? A prospective controlled study. Gait Posture. 2006 Ott;24(2):142-151.

Electrolyte disorders in the human ventricle. A simulation study.

Ventricular cells are immersed in a bath of electrolytes and these ions are essential for a healthy heart and a regular rhythm. Maintaining physiological concentration of them is fundamental for reducing arrhythmias and risk of sudden cardiac death, especially in haemodialysis patients and in the heart diseases treatments. Models of electrically activity of the heart based on mathematical formulation are a part of the efforts to improve the understanding and prediction of heart behaviour. Modern models incorporate the extensive and ever increasing amounts of experimental data in incorporating biophysically detailed mechanisms to allow the detailed study of molecular and subcellular mechanisms of heart disease. The goal of this project was to simulate the effects of changes in potassium and calcium concentrations in the extracellular space between experimental data and and a description incorpored into two modern biophysically detailed models (Grandi et al. Model; O’Hara Rudy Model). Moreover the task was to analyze the changes in the ventricular electrical activity, in particular by studying the modifications on the simulated electrocardiographic signal. We used the cellular information obtained by the heart models in order to build a 1D tissue description. The fibre is composed by 165 cells, it is divided in four groups to differentiate the cell types that compound human ventricular tissue. The main results are the following: Grandi et al. (GBP) model is not even able to reproduce the correct action potential profile in hyperkalemia. Data from hospitalized patients indicates that the action potential duration (APD) should be shorter than physiological state but in this model we have the opposite. From the potassium point of view the results obtained by using O’Hara model (ORD) are in agreement with experimental data for the single cell action potential in hypokalemia and hyperkalemia, most of the currents follow the data from literature. In the 1D simulations we were able to reproduce ECGs signal in most the potassium concentrations we selected for this study and we collected data that can help physician in understanding what happens in ventricular cells during electrolyte disorder. However the model fails in the conduction of the stimulus under hyperkalemic conditions. The model emphasized the ECG modifications when the K+ is slightly more than physiological value. In the calcium setting using the ORD model we found an APD shortening in hypocalcaemia and an APD lengthening in hypercalcaemia, i.e. the opposite to experimental observation. This wrong behaviour is kept in one dimensional simulations bringing a longer QT interval in the ECG under higher [Ca2+]o conditions and vice versa. In conclusion it has highlighted that the actual ventricular models present in literature, even if they are useful in the original form, they need an improvement in the sensitivity of these two important electrolytes. We suggest an use of the GBP model with modifications introduced by Carro et al. who understood that the failure of this model is related to the Shannon et al. model (a rabbit model) from which the GBP model was built. The ORD model should be modified in the Ca2+ - dependent IcaL and in the influence of the Iks in the action potential for letting it him produce a correct action potential under different calcium concentrations. In the 1D tissue maybe a heterogeneity setting of intra and extracellular conductances for the different cell types should improve a reproduction of the ECG signal.