On Causal Mediation Analysis with a Survival Outcome

Suppose that having established a marginal total effect of a point exposure on a time-to-event outcome, an investigator wishes to decompose this effect into its direct and indirect pathways, also know as natural direct and indirect effects, mediated by a variable known to occur after the exposure and prior to the outcome. This paper proposes a theory of estimation of natural direct and indirect effects in two important semiparametric models for a failure time outcome. The underlying survival model for the marginal total effect and thus for the direct and indirect effects, can either be a marginal structural Cox proportional hazards model, or a marginal structural additive hazards model. The proposed theory delivers new estimators for mediation analysis in each of these models, with appealing robustness properties. Specifically, in order to guarantee ignorability with respect to the exposure and mediator variables, the approach, which is multiply robust, allows the investigator to use several flexible working models to adjust for confounding by a large number of pre-exposure variables. Multiple robustness is appealing because it only requires a subset of working models to be correct for consistency; furthermore, the analyst need not know which subset of working models is in fact correct to report valid inferences. Finally, a novel semiparametric sensitivity analysis technique is developed for each of these models, to assess the impact on inference, of a violation of the assumption of ignorability of the mediator.

On the Accelerated Failure Time Model for Current Status and Interval Censored Data

This paper introduces a novel approach to making inference about the regression parameters in the accelerated failure time (AFT) model for current status and interval censored data. The estimator is constructed by inverting a Wald type test for testing a null proportional hazards model. A numerically efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) based resampling method is proposed to simultaneously obtain the point estimator and a consistent estimator of its variance-covariance matrix. We illustrate our approach with interval censored data sets from two clinical studies. Extensive numerical studies are conducted to evaluate the finite sample performance of the new estimators.

GH mutant (R77C) in a pedigree presenting with the delay of growth and pubertal development: structural analysis of the mutant and evaluation of the biological activity

A heterozygous missense mutation in the GH-1 gene converting codon 77 from arginine (R) to cysteine (C), which was previously reported to have some GH antagonistic effect, was identified in a Syrian family. The index patient, a boy, was referred for assessment of his short stature (-2.5 SDS) at the age of 6 years. His mother and grandfather were also carrying the same mutation, but did not differ in adult height from the other unaffected family members. Hormonal examination in all affected subjects revealed increased basal GH, low IGF-I concentrations, and subnormal IGF-I response in generation test leading to the diagnosis of partial GH insensitivity. However, GH receptor gene (GHR) sequencing demonstrated no abnormalities. As other family members carrying the GH-R77C form showed similar alterations at the hormonal level, but presented with normal final height, no GH therapy was given to the boy, but he was followed through his pubertal development which was delayed. At the age of 20 years he reached his final height, which was normal within his parental target height. Functional characterization of the GH-R77C, assessed through activation of Jak2/Stat5 pathway, revealed no differences in the bioactivity between wild-type-GH (wt-GH) and GH-R77C. Detailed structural analysis indicated that the structure of GH-R77C, in terms of disulfide bond formation, is almost identical to that of the wt-GH despite the introduced mutation (Cys77). Previous studies from our group demonstrated a reduced capability of GH-R77C to induce GHR/GH-binding protein (GHBP) gene transcription rate when compared with wt-GH. Therefore, reduced GHR/GHBP expression might well be the possible cause for the partial GH insensitivity found in our patients. In addition, this group of patients deserve further attention because they could represent a distinct clinical entity underlining that an altered GH peptide may also have a direct impact on GHR/GHBP gene expression causing partial GH insensitivity. This might be responsible for the delay of growth and pubertal development. Finally, we clearly demonstrate that GH-R77C is not invariably associated with short stature, but that great care needs to be taken in ascribing growth failure to various heterozygous mutations affecting the GH-IGF axis and that careful functional studies are mandatory.

Mutation analysis of NPHP6/CEP290 in patients with Joubert syndrome and Senior-Løken syndrome

BACKGROUND: Nephronophthisis (NPHP) is an autosomal recessive cystic kidney disease that constitutes the most common genetic cause of renal failure in the first three decades of life. Using positional cloning, six genes (NPHP1-6) have been identified as mutated in NPHP. In Joubert syndrome (JBTS), NPHP may be associated with cerebellar vermis aplasia/hypoplasia, retinal degeneration and mental retardation. In Senior-Løken syndrome (SLSN), NPHP is associated with retinal degeneration. Recently, mutations in NPHP6/CEP290 were identified as a new cause of JBTS. METHODS: Mutational analysis was performed on a worldwide cohort of 75 families with SLSN, 99 families with JBTS and 21 families with isolated nephronophthisis. RESULTS: Six novel and six known truncating mutations, one known missense mutation and one novel 3 bp pair in-frame deletion were identified in a total of seven families with JBTS, two families with SLSN and one family with isolated NPHP.

Immunodetection of 3-nitrotyrosine in the liver of zymosan-treated rats with a new monoclonal antibody: comparison to analysis by HPLC

Zymosan-induced peritonitis is associated with an increased production of reactive nitrogen oxides that may contribute to the often-observed failure of multiple organ systems in this model of acute inflammation. Quantitative biochemical evidence is provided for a marked 13-fold increase in protein-bound 3-nitrotyrosine (NTyr), a biomarker of reactive nitrogen oxides, in liver tissue of zymosan-treated rats. In order to investigate the localization of NTyr in this affected tissue, a monoclonal antibody, designated 39B6, was raised against 3-(4-hydroxy-3-nitrophenylacetamido) propionic acid-bovine serum albumin conjugate and its performance characterized. 39B6 was judged by competition ELISA to be approximately 2 orders of magnitude more sensitive than a commercial anti-NTyr monoclonal antibody. Binding characteristics of 39B6 were similar, but not identical, to that of a commercial affinity-purified polyclonal antibody in ELISA and immunohistochemical analyses. Western blot experiments revealed high specificity of 39B6 against NTyr and increased immunoreactivity of specific proteins from liver tissue homogenates of zymosan-treated rats. Immunohistochemical analysis of liver sections indicated a marked zymosan-induced increase in immunofluorescent staining, which was particularly intense in or adjacent to nonparenchymal cells, but not in the parenchymal cells of this tissue. Quantitative analysis of fractions enriched in these cell populations corroborated the immunofluorescent data, although the relative amounts detected in response to zymosan treatment was greatly reduced compared to whole liver tissue. These results demonstrate the high specificity of the newly developed antibody and its usefulness in Western blot and immunohistochemical analysis for NTyr, confirm the presence of NTyr by complementary methods, and suggest the possible involvement of reactive nitrogen oxides in hepatic vascular dysfunction.

Implant Failure Predictors in the Posterior Maxilla: A Retrospective Study of 273 Consecutive Implants

Background: The goal of this study was to retrospectively analyze a cohort of 136 patients who underwent dental implant placement in the posterior maxilla at the University of Connecticut Health Center to assess and identify predictors for implant failure in the posterior maxilla. Methods: Data were retrieved from patient charts to identify subjects older than 21 years of age who received dental implant(s) in the posterior maxilla. Patients without a postoperative baseline radiograph were excluded. A recall radiograph was taken 3 to 6 months after implant placement. If there was no recall radiograph, the subject was contacted for a recall visit that included a clinical evaluation and radiographs to determine the implant status. Based on a univariate screening, variables considered potential implant failure predictors included gender, diabetes, smoking, implant length, implant diameter, membrane use, sinus-elevation technique, and surgical complications. These parameters were further assessed, and a multivariable logistic regression was performed with implant failure as a dependant variable. All tests of significance were evaluated at the 0.05 error level. Results: Two hundred seventy-three implants were placed in the posterior maxilla. Fourteen implants failed (early and late failures combined), resulting in a 94.9% overall survival rate. The survival rates for the sinus-elevation group and native bone group were 92.2% and 96.7%, respectively (P = 0.090). Based on the multivariable analysis, sinus floor-elevation procedures were not associated with increased risk for implant failure (P = 0.702). In contrast, smoking and surgical complications had a statistically significant effect on implant failure; the odds ratios for implant failure were 6.4 (P = 0.025) and 8.2 (P = 0.004), respectively. Conclusion: Sinus-elevation procedures with simultaneous or staged implant placement do not increase the risk for implant failure, whereas smoking and surgical complications markedly increase the risk for implant failure.

Psychometric properties of the MacNew heart disease health-related quality of life instrument in patients with heart failure

RATIONALE, AIMS AND OBJECTIVES: Heart failure (HF) is a severe chronic disease and impairs health-related quality of life (HRQL). While validated specific HRQL instruments are required for evaluation of treatment and rehabilitation in patients with HF, a single validated measure to document changes in HRQL for patients with different heart disease diagnoses would be invaluable. The purpose of this analysis was the psychometric analysis of the German MacNew Heart Disease Questionnaire (MacNew) in HF patients, which has previously been shown to be reliable and valid in patients with myocardial infarction, angina pectoris and arrhythmia. METHODS: We recruited 89 patients (61.7+/-11.5 years; 84.3% male) in two Austrian and one Swiss cardiology department with documented HF (effect sizes 28.9+/-10.1%). The self-administered MacNew, the Short Form-36 (SF-36) and the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale were completed. Internal consistency reliability (Cronbach's alpha), discriminative and evaluative validity were assessed. RESULTS: Cronbach's alpha exceeded 0.80. Each MacNew scale differentiated between patients with and without anxiety (3.9+/-1.0 vs. 5.3+/-0.8, all P<0.001), with and without depression (4.2+/-1.2 vs. 5.2+/-0.9 all P<0.03) and by the SF-36 health transition item (deteriorate=4.39, no change=4.95, improve=5.45, all P<0.02). Evaluative validity was demonstrated with effect sizes >0.70 for a subsample attending a 12-week outpatient rehabilitation programme. CONCLUSIONS: The German language version of the MacNew demonstrates consistently acceptable psychometric properties of reliability, validity and responsiveness in patients with documented HF. Together with previous documentation of reliability, validity and responsive, these findings strengthen the argument for the MacNew as a potential 'core' HRQL measure, at least in the German language.

A retrospective analysis of patients referred for implant placement to a specialty clinic: indications, surgical procedures, and early failures

Purpose: This retrospective study analyzed the pool of patients referred for treatment with dental implants over a 3-year period in a referral specialty clinic. Materials and Methods: All patients receiving dental implants between 2002 and 2004 in the Department of Oral Surgery and Stomatology, University of Bern, were included in this retrospective study. Patients were analyzed according to age, gender, indications for implant therapy, location of implants, and type and length of implants placed. A cumulative logistic regression analysis was performed to identify and analyze potential risk factors for complications or failures. Results: A total of 1,206 patients received 1,817 dental implants. The group comprised 573 men and 633 women with a mean age of 55.2 years. Almost 60% of patients were age 50 or older. The most frequent indication for implant therapy was single-tooth replacement in the maxilla (522 implants or 28.7%). A total of 726 implants (40%) were inserted in the esthetically demanding region of the anterior maxilla. For 939 implants (51.7%), additional bone-augmentation procedures were required. Of these, ridge augmentation with guided bone regeneration was performed more frequently than sinus grafting. Thirteen complications leading to early failures were recorded, resulting in an early failure rate of 0.7%. The regression analysis failed to identify statistically significant failure etiologies for the variables assessed. Conclusions: From this study it can be concluded that patients referred to a specialty clinic for implant placement were more likely to be partially edentulous and over 50 years old. Single-tooth replacement was the most frequent indication (> 50%). Similarly, additional bone augmentation was indicated in more than 50% of cases. Adhering to strict patient selection criteria and a standardized surgical protocol, an early failure rate of 0.7% was experienced in this study population

Capacity optimization of a prestressed concrete railroad tie

Today the use of concrete ties is on the rise in North America as they become an economically competitive alternative to the historical industry standard wood ties, while providing performance which exceeds its competition in terms of durability and capacity. Similarly, in response to rising energy costs, there is increased demand for efficient and sustainable transportation of people and goods. One source of such transportation is the railroad. To accommodate the increased demand, railroads are constructing new track and upgrading existing track. This update to the track system will increase its capacity while making it a more reliable means of transportation compared to other alternatives. In addition to increasing the track system capacity, railroads are considering an increase in the size of the typical freight rail car to allow larger tonnage. An increase in rail car loads will in turn affect the performance requirements of the track. Due to the increased loads heavy haul railroads are considering applying to their tracks, current designs of prestressed concrete railroad ties for heavy haul applications may be undersized. In an effort to maximize tie capacity while maintaining tie geometry, fastening systems and installation equipment, a parametric study to optimize the existing designs was completed. The optimization focused on maximizing the capacity of an existing tie design through an investigation of prestressing quantity, configuration, stress levels and other material properties. The results of the parametric optimization indicate that the capacity of an existing tie can be increased most efficiently by increasing the diameter of the prestressing and concrete strength. However, researchers also found that current design specifications and procedures do not include consideration of tie behavior beyond the current tie capacity limit of cracking to the first layer of prestressing. In addition to limiting analysis to the cracking limit, failure mechanisms such as shear in deep beams at the rail seat or pullout failure of the prestressing due to lack of development length were absent from specified design procedures, but discussed in this project.

Arc-flash analysis of utility power systems

The electric utility business is an inherently dangerous area to work in with employees exposed to many potential hazards daily. One such hazard is an arc flash. An arc flash is a rapid release of energy, referred to as incident energy, caused by an electric arc. Due to the random nature and occurrence of an arc flash, one can only prepare and minimize the extent of harm to themself, other employees and damage to equipment due to such a violent event. Effective January 1, 2009 the National Electric Safety Code (NESC) requires that an arc-flash assessment be performed by companies whose employees work on or near energized equipment to determine the potential exposure to an electric arc. To comply with the NESC requirement, Minnesota Power’s (MP’s) current short circuit and relay coordination software package, ASPEN OneLinerTM and one of the first software packages to implement an arc-flash module, is used to conduct an arc-flash hazard analysis. At the same time, the package is benchmarked against equations provided in the IEEE Std. 1584-2002 and ultimately used to determine the incident energy levels on the MP transmission system. This report goes into the depth of the history of arc-flash hazards, analysis methods, both software and empirical derived equations, issues of concern with calculation methods and the work conducted at MP. This work also produced two offline software products to conduct and verify an offline arc-flash hazard analysis.

Slope stability analysis of the Pacaya Volcano, Guatemala, using limit equilibrium and finite element method

The Pacaya volcanic complex is part of the Central American volcanic arc, which is associated with the subduction of the Cocos tectonic plate under the Caribbean plate. Located 30 km south of Guatemala City, Pacaya is situated on the southern rim of the Amatitlan Caldera. It is the largest post-caldera volcano, and has been one of Central America’s most active volcanoes over the last 500 years. Between 400 and 2000 years B.P, the Pacaya volcano had experienced a huge collapse, which resulted in the formation of horseshoe-shaped scarp that is still visible. In the recent years, several smaller collapses have been associated with the activity of the volcano (in 1961 and 2010) affecting its northwestern flanks, which are likely to be induced by the local and regional stress changes. The similar orientation of dry and volcanic fissures and the distribution of new vents would likely explain the reactivation of the pre-existing stress configuration responsible for the old-collapse. This paper presents the first stability analysis of the Pacaya volcanic flank. The inputs for the geological and geotechnical models were defined based on the stratigraphical, lithological, structural data, and material properties obtained from field survey and lab tests. According to the mechanical characteristics, three lithotechnical units were defined: Lava, Lava-Breccia and Breccia-Lava. The Hoek and Brown’s failure criterion was applied for each lithotechnical unit and the rock mass friction angle, apparent cohesion, and strength and deformation characteristics were computed in a specified stress range. Further, the stability of the volcano was evaluated by two-dimensional analysis performed by Limit Equilibrium (LEM, ROCSCIENCE) and Finite Element Method (FEM, PHASE 2 7.0). The stability analysis mainly focused on the modern Pacaya volcano built inside the collapse amphitheatre of “Old Pacaya”. The volcanic instability was assessed based on the variability of safety factor using deterministic, sensitivity, and probabilistic analysis considering the gravitational instability and the effects of external forces such as magma pressure and seismicity as potential triggering mechanisms of lateral collapse. The preliminary results from the analysis provide two insights: first, the least stable sector is on the south-western flank of the volcano; second, the lowest safety factor value suggests that the edifice is stable under gravity alone, and the external triggering mechanism can represent a likely destabilizing factor.

Analysis of a Non-Traditional Micro Tube Hydroforming Process

As the demand for miniature products and components continues to increase, the need for manufacturing processes to provide these products and components has also increased. To meet this need, successful macroscale processes are being scaled down and applied at the microscale. Unfortunately, many challenges have been experienced when directly scaling down macro processes. Initially, frictional effects were believed to be the largest challenge encountered. However, in recent studies it has been found that the greatest challenge encountered has been with size effects. Size effect is a broad term that largely refers to the thickness of the material being formed and how this thickness directly affects the product dimensions and manufacturability. At the microscale, the thickness becomes critical due to the reduced number of grains. When surface contact between the forming tools and the material blanks occur at the macroscale, there is enough material (hundreds of layers of material grains) across the blank thickness to compensate for material flow and the effect of grain orientation. At the microscale, there may be under 10 grains across the blank thickness. With a decreased amount of grains across the thickness, the influence of the grain size, shape and orientation is significant. Any material defects (either natural occurring or ones that occur as a result of the material preparation) have a significant role in altering the forming potential. To date, various micro metal forming and micro materials testing equipment setups have been constructed at the Michigan Tech lab. Initially, the research focus was to create a micro deep drawing setup to potentially build micro sensor encapsulation housings. The research focus shifted to micro metal materials testing equipment setups. These include the construction and testing of the following setups: a micro mechanical bulge test, a micro sheet tension test (testing micro tensile bars), a micro strain analysis (with the use of optical lithography and chemical etching) and a micro sheet hydroforming bulge test. Recently, the focus has shifted to study a micro tube hydroforming process. The intent is to target fuel cells, medical, and sensor encapsulation applications. While the tube hydroforming process is widely understood at the macroscale, the microscale process also offers some significant challenges in terms of size effects. Current work is being conducted in applying direct current to enhance micro tube hydroforming formability. Initially, adding direct current to various metal forming operations has shown some phenomenal results. The focus of current research is to determine the validity of this process.

Esophageal strictures in adult eosinophilic esophagitis: dilation is an effective and safe alternative after failure of topical corticosteroids

Strictures are a frequent complication of eosinophilic esophagitis. The efficacy and safety of topical corticosteroids and of dilation of eosinophilic esophagitis-associated strictures have not yet been thoroughly clarified. We present a retrospective analysis of 10 adult patients with eosinophilic esophagitis who had symptomatic esophageal stenosis that was unresponsive to topical corticosteroids, and who were treated using bougienage. Eight patients had one single stricture, one patient had two, and another had three strictures; mean stricture length was 2.1 cm (range 1 - 6 cm). Bougienage led to prompt symptom relief. Apart from transient postprocedural odynophagia, no severe complications occurred. During the follow-up (mean 6 months; range 2 - 11 months), all patients enjoyed sustained treatment response.

Accuracy of WHO CD4 cell count criteria for virological failure of antiretroviral therapy

OBJECTIVES: To examine the accuracy of the World Health Organization immunological criteria for virological failure of antiretroviral treatment. METHODS: Analysis of 10 treatment programmes in Africa and South America that monitor both CD4 cell counts and HIV-1 viral load. Adult patients with at least two CD4 counts and viral load measurements between month 6 and 18 after starting a non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor-based regimen were included. WHO immunological criteria include CD4 counts persistently <100 cells/microl, a fall below the baseline CD4 count, or a fall of >50% from the peak value. Virological failure was defined as two measurements > or =10 0000 copies/ml (higher threshold) or > or =500 copies/ml (lower threshold). Measures of accuracy with exact binomial 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated. RESULTS: A total of 2009 patients were included. During 1856 person-years of follow up 63 patients met the immunological criteria and 35 patients (higher threshold) and 95 patients (lower threshold) met the virological criteria. Sensitivity [95% confidence interval (CI)] was 17.1% (6.6-33.6%) for the higher and 12.6% (6.7-21.0%) for the lower threshold. Corresponding results for specificity were 97.1% (96.3-97.8%) and 97.3% (96.5-98.0%), for positive predictive value 9.5% (3.6-19.6%) and 19.0% (10.2-30.9%) and for negative predictive value 98.5% (97.9-99.0%) and 95.7% (94.7-96.6%). CONCLUSIONS: The positive predictive value of the WHO immunological criteria for virological failure of antiretroviral treatment in resource-limited settings is poor, but the negative predictive value is high. Immunological criteria are more appropriate for ruling out than for ruling in virological failure in resource-limited settings.