A review of dynamic Bayesian network techniques with applications in healthcare risk modelling

Coping with an ageing population is a major concern for healthcare organisations around the world. The average cost of hospital care is higher than social care for older and terminally ill patients. Moreover, the average cost of social care increases with the age of the patient. Therefore, it is important to make efficient and fair capacity planning which also incorporates patient centred outcomes. Predictive models can provide predictions which their accuracy can be understood and quantified. Predictive modelling can help patients and carers to get the appropriate support services, and allow clinical decision-makers to improve care quality and reduce the cost of inappropriate hospital and Accident and Emergency admissions. The aim of this study is to provide a review of modelling techniques and frameworks for predictive risk modelling of patients in hospital, based on routinely collected data such as the Hospital Episode Statistics database. A number of sub-problems can be considered such as Length-of-Stay and End-of-Life predictive modelling. The methodologies in the literature are mainly focused on addressing the problems using regression methods and Markov models, and the majority lack generalisability. In some cases, the robustness, accuracy and re-usability of predictive risk models have been shown to be improved using Machine Learning methods. Dynamic Bayesian Network techniques can represent complex correlations models and include small probabilities into the solution. The main focus of this study is to provide a review of major time-varying Dynamic Bayesian Network techniques with applications in healthcare predictive risk modelling.

Utopia and its Discontents: Dreams of Catastrophe and the End of 'the End of History'

The institutionalization of Utopia Studies in the last decade is premised upon a specifically aesthetic reception of Ernst Bloch’s theory of the “utopian impulse” during the 1980s and 1990s. A postmodern uneasiness to both left and right formulations of the "End of History" during this period imposes a resistance to concepts of historical and political closure or totality, resulting in a "Utopianism without Utopia". For all the attractiveness of this pan-utopianism, its failure to consider the relation between historical representation and fulfillment renders it consummate with liberalism as a merely inverted conservatism. In contrast to this specific recuperation of a Bloch, the continuing importance of Walter Benjamin’s theory of the dialectical image and the speculative concept of historical experience which underlies it becomes apparent. The intrusion of the historical Absolute is coded throughout Benjamin’s thought as the eruptive and mortuary figure of catastrophe, which stands as the dialectical counterpart to the utopian wish images of the collective dream. Indeed, the motto under which the Arcades Project was to be constructed derives from Adorno: “Each epoch dreams of itself as annihilated by catastrophe”.

PLSR Models for Mechanical Strengths of Concrete Composite Materials Reinforced with Pultrusion Wastes

In this paper, we present two Partial Least Squares Regression (PLSR) models for compressive and flexural strength responses of a concrete composite material reinforced with pultrusion wastes. The main objective is to characterize this cost-effective waste management solution for glass fiber reinforced polymer (GFRP) pultrusion wastes and end-of-life products that will lead, thereby, to a more sustainable composite materials industry. The experiments took into account formulations with the incorporation of three different weight contents of GFRP waste materials into polyester based mortars, as sand aggregate and filler replacements, two waste particle size grades and the incorporation of silane adhesion promoter into the polyester resin matrix in order to improve binder aggregates interfaces. The regression models were achieved for these data and two latent variables were identified as suitable, with a 95% confidence level. This technological option, for improving the quality of GFRP filled polymer mortars, is viable thus opening a door to selective recycling of GFRP waste and its use in the production of concrete-polymer based products. However, further and complementary studies will be necessary to confirm the technical and economic viability of the process.

Quality of Life Predictors and Normative Data

This study identifies predictors and normative data for quality of life (QOL) in a sample of Portuguese adults from general population. A cross-sectional correlational study was undertaken with two hundred and fifty-five (N = 255) individuals from Portuguese general population (mean age 43 years, range 25–84 years; 148 females, 107 males). Participants completed the European Portuguese version of the World Health Organization Quality of Life short-form instrument and the European Portuguese version of the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale. Demographic information was also collected. Portuguese adults reported their QOL as good. The physical, psychological and environmental domains predicted 44 % of the variance of QOL. The strongest predictor was the physical domain and the weakest was social relationships. Age, educational level, socioeconomic status and emotional status were significantly correlated with QOL and explained 25 % of the variance of QOL. The strongest predictor of QOL was emotional status followed by education and age. QOL was significantly different according to: marital status; living place (mainland or islands); type of cohabitants; occupation; health. The sample of adults from general Portuguese population reported high levels of QOL. The life domain that better explained QOL was the physical domain. Among other variables, emotional status best predicted QOL. Further variables influenced overall QOL. These findings inform our understanding on adults from Portuguese general population QOL and can be helpful for researchers and practitioners using this assessment tool to compare their results with normative data

A Clinical Support System Based on Quality of Life Estimation

Quality of life is a concept influenced by social, economic, psychological, spiritual or medical state factors. More specifically, the perceived quality of an individual's daily life is an assessment of their well-being or lack of it. In this context, information technologies may help on the management of services for healthcare of chronic patients such as estimating the patient quality of life and helping the medical staff to take appropriate measures to increase each patient quality of life. This paper describes a Quality of Life estimation system developed using information technologies and the application of data mining algorithms to access the information of clinical data of patients with cancer from Otorhinolaryngology and Head and Neck services of an oncology institution. The system was evaluated with a sample composed of 3013 patients. The results achieved show that there are variables that may be significant predictors for the Quality of Life of the patient: years of smoking (p value 0.049) and size of the tumor (p value < 0.001). In order to assign the variables to the classification of the quality of life the best accuracy was obtained by applying the John Platt's sequential minimal optimization algorithm for training a support vector classifier. In conclusion data mining techniques allow having access to patients additional information helping the physicians to be able to know the quality of life and produce a well-informed clinical decision.

Impact of Syncope on Quality of Life: Validation of a Measure in Patients Undergoing Tilt Testing

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: Recurrent syncope has a significant impact on quality of life. The development of measurement scales to assess this impact that are easy to use in clinical settings is crucial. The objective of the present study is a preliminary validation of the Impact of Syncope on Quality of Life questionnaire for the Portuguese population. METHODS: The instrument underwent a process of translation, validation, analysis of cultural appropriateness and cognitive debriefing. A population of 39 patients with a history of recurrent syncope (>1 year) who underwent tilt testing, aged 52.1 ± 16.4 years (21-83), 43.5% male, most in active employment (n=18) or retired (n=13), constituted a convenience sample. The resulting Portuguese version is similar to the original, with 12 items in a single aggregate score, and underwent statistical validation, with assessment of reliability, validity and stability over time. RESULTS: With regard to reliability, the internal consistency of the scale is 0.9. Assessment of convergent and discriminant validity showed statistically significant results (p<0.01). Regarding stability over time, a test-retest of this instrument at six months after tilt testing with 22 patients of the sample who had not undergone any clinical intervention found no statistically significant changes in quality of life. CONCLUSIONS: The results indicate that this instrument is of value for assessing quality of life in patients with recurrent syncope in Portugal.

Quality of life of hypertensive and diabetic patients: Who suffers the most?

Objective: Quality of life was measured using the EQ-5D index for Portugal and a Self-Assessed Ranking of Health (SARH) to understand which patients suffer the most decrease in quality of life: diabetics or hypertensive. Method: Using the National Health Survey (NHS), two analyses were conducted on 5649 respondents. The EQ-5D index was calculated by matching questions in the NHS with its dimensions. The SARH was calculated based on a specific question in the NHS. Results: Differences between diseases do not occur using the EQ-5D index. Using the SARH, type 1 diabetics suffer the most while hypertensive suffers the least.

Validation of the IMPACT-III quality of life questionnaire in Swiss children with inflammatory bowel disease.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) frequently manifests during childhood and adolescence. For providing and understanding a comprehensive picture of a patients' health status, health-related quality of life (HRQoL) instruments are an essential complement to clinical symptoms and functional limitations. Currently, the IMPACT-III questionnaire is one of the most frequently used disease-specific HRQoL instrument among patients with IBD. However, there is a lack of studies examining the validation and reliability of this instrument. METHODS: 146 paediatric IBD patients from the multicenter Swiss IBD paediatric cohort study database were included in the study. Medical and laboratory data were extracted from the hospital records. HRQoL data were assessed by means of standardized questionnaires filled out by the patients in a face-to-face interview. RESULTS: The original six IMPACT-III domain scales could not be replicated in the current sample. A principal component analysis with the extraction of four factor scores revealed the most robust solution. The four factors indicated good internal reliability (Cronbach's alpha=.64-.86), good concurrent validity measured by correlations with the generic KIDSCREEN-27 scales and excellent discriminant validity for the dimension of physical functioning measured by HRQoL differences for active and inactive severity groups (p<.001, d=1.04). CONCLUSIONS: This study with Swiss children with IBD indicates good validity and reliability for the IMPACT-III questionnaire. However, our findings suggest a slightly different factor structure than originally proposed. The IMPACT-III questionnaire can be recommended for its use in clinical practice. The factor structure should be further examined in other samples.

Advance directives and the impact of timing. A qualitative study with Swiss general practitioners.

PRINCIPLES: Advance directives are seen as an important tool for documenting the wishes of patients who are no longer competent to make decisions in regards to their medical care. Due to their nature, approaching the subject of advance directives with a patient can be difficult for both the medical care provider and the patient. This paper focuses on general practitioners' perspectives regarding the timing at which this discussion should take place, as well as the advantages and disadvantages of the different moments. METHODS: In 2013, 23 semi-structured face-to-face interviews were performed with Swiss general practitioners. Interviews were analysed using qualitative content analysis. RESULTS: In our sample, 23 general practitioners provided different options that they felt were appropriate moments: either (a) when the patient is still healthy, (b) when illness becomes predominant, or (c) when a patient has been transferred to a long-term care facility. Furthermore, general practitioners reported uncertainty and discomfort regarding initiating the discussion. CONCLUSION: The distinct approaches, perspectives and rationales show that there is no well-defined or "right" moment. However, participants often associated advance directives with death. This link caused discomfort and uncertainty, which led to hesitation and delay on the part of general practitioners. Therefore we recommend further training on how to professionally initiate a conversation about advance directives. Furthermore, based on our results and experience, we recommend an early approach with healthy patients paired with later regular updates as it seems to be the most effective way to inform patients about their end-of-life care options.

Parent perceived quality of life is age-dependent in children with food allergy.

Food allergy in children significantly affects their quality of life. Its impact can be analyzed by quality of life questionnaires. The aim of our study was to validate the French version of disease-specific questionnaires and to evaluate the quality of life in children with IgE-mediated food allergy. Two validated food allergy-specific questionnaires for quality of life, the parent's and children's forms (FAQLQ-PF and FAQLQ-CF), were translated from English to French and submitted to children with food allergy and their parents. Questionnaires were analyzed in terms of emotional impact, food anxiety, and social and food limitations. NCT 01480427. Sixty-two parents of children aged 0-12 yrs answered the FAQLQ-PF, and 32 children aged 8-12 yrs the FAQLQ-CF. Construct validity of both questionnaires was assessed by correlation between the FAQLQs and FAIM (r = 0.85 and 0.84, respectively). Both FAQLQs had good internal consistency (Cronbach's α = 0.748 and 0.67, respectively). Young children (0-3 yrs old) showed better quality of life scores than older children (FAQLQ-PF global score: p = 0.02). Worse scores were also shown among children with previous severe systemic reactions (FAQLQ-PF global score: p = 0.039), the ones with an allergic mother (FAQLQ-PF global score: p = 0.002), or allergic siblings (FAQLQ-PF emotional impact score: p = 0.034), the ones with multiple food allergy (more than 1 food) (FAQLQ-PF anxiety score: p = 0.04) and among the girls (FAQLQ-CF global score: p = 0.031). Older children, the ones with severe systemic reactions, or with mothers or siblings also affected by allergies, as well as girls, and children with multiple food allergies show worse quality of life scores.

Mitochondrial uncoupling as a regulator of life-history trajectories in birds: an experimental study in the zebra finch.

Mitochondria have a fundamental role in the transduction of energy from food into ATP. The coupling between food oxidation and ATP production is never perfect, but may nevertheless be of evolutionary significance. The 'uncoupling to survive' hypothesis suggests that 'mild' mitochondrial uncoupling evolved as a protective mechanism against the excessive production of damaging reactive oxygen species (ROS). Because resource allocation and ROS production are thought to shape animal life histories, alternative life-history trajectories might be driven by individual variation in the degree of mitochondrial uncoupling. We tested this hypothesis in a small bird species, the zebra finch (Taeniopygia guttata), by treating adults with the artificial mitochondrial uncoupler 2,4-dinitrophenol (DNP) over a 32-month period. In agreement with our expectations, the uncoupling treatment increased metabolic rate. However, we found no evidence that treated birds enjoyed lower oxidative stress levels or greater survival rates, in contrast to previous results in other taxa. In vitro experiments revealed lower sensitivity of ROS production to DNP in mitochondria isolated from skeletal muscles of zebra finch than mouse. In addition, we found significant reductions in the number of eggs laid and in the inflammatory immune response in treated birds. Altogether, our data suggest that the 'uncoupling to survive' hypothesis may not be applicable for zebra finches, presumably because of lower effects of mitochondrial uncoupling on mitochondrial ROS production in birds than in mammals. Nevertheless, mitochondrial uncoupling appeared to be a potential life-history regulator of traits such as fecundity and immunity at adulthood, even with food supplied ad libitum.

Psychosocial Quality-of-Life, Lifestyle and Adiposity: A Longitudinal Study in Pre-schoolers (Ballabeina Study).

PURPOSE: In obesity prevention, understanding psychosocial influences in early life is pivotal. Reviews reported contradictory results and a lack of longitudinal studies focusing on underlying lifestyle factors. This study tested whether psychosocial Quality-Of-Life (QOL) was associated with pre-schoolers' lifestyle and adiposity changes over one school year and whether lifestyle moderated the latter. It was hypothesised that QOL might not impact adiposity in everybody but that this might depend on preceding lifestyle. METHOD: Longitudinal data from 291 Swiss pre-schoolers (initially 3.9-6.3 years) was available. The following measures were used in longitudinal regressions: psychosocial QOL by PedsQL, adiposity (BMI z-score, waist, fat%), diet (food frequency), sedentary time and accelerometer-based activity. RESULTS: Concerning lifestyle, low psychosocial QOL was only related to unfavourable changes in diet (less fruit β = 0.21 and more fat intake β = -0.28) and lower physical activity (β = 0.21). Longitudinal QOL-adiposity relations appeared only after moderation by lifestyle factors (beta-range 0.13-0.67). Low psychosocial QOL was associated with increased adiposity in children with an unhealthy diet intake or high sedentary time. By contrast, low psychosocial QOL was associated with decreasing adiposity in high fruit consumers or more physically active pre-schoolers. CONCLUSION: Results emphasise the need for testing moderation in the QOL-adiposity relation. An unhealthy diet can be a vulnerability factor and high physical activity a protective factor in QOL-related adiposity. Consequently, QOL and lifestyle should be targeted concurrently in multi-factorial obesity prevention. The environment should be an 'activity encouraging, healthy food zone' that minimises opportunities for stress-induced eating. In addition, appropriate stress coping skills should be acquired.

A comparison of life satisfaction, job satisfaction, and happiness using demographic variables

This study examined the interrelationships among life satisfaction, job satisfaction, and happiness and the selected demographic variables of income, age, marital status, education, sex, job tenure, job title, type of school, and location of employment. Survey data were collected from 1,993 elementary, high school, and community college teachers in the southern Ontario area, representing ten public school boards, three Roman Catholic school boards and three community colleges. Several theories were utilized in developing thirteen hypotheses and eleven experimental hypotheses. A thorough review of the literature (to January, 1980) was undertaken and major conclusions noted. Hoppock's (1935) Job Satisfaction Measure, Gurin, Veroff, and Feld's (1960) Happiness Scale, and Converse and Robinson's (1965) Life Satisfaction Scale were used as the instrument. Chi-square analysis was employed as the statistical method. Indicative of the findings: the level of education taught was significantly related to all three organizational variables, sex was unrelated to life satisfaction though positively related to job satisfaction, and income was found not to be related to either happiness or life satisfaction. A minority of findings were contrary to hypothesized relationships. Specifically, age was found to be unrelated to any of the three organizational variables, and educational achievement was not significantly related to happiness. A model was developed to illustrate the interrelationships of the organizational and demographic variables. This model was designed specifically to reflect teacher attitudes, though it may have reasonable application for other relatively homogeneous groups of employees such as nurses, engineers, or social workers.