Viewing the future

As many industrial organizations have learned to apply roadmapping successfully, they have also learned that it is "roadmapping" rather than "the roadmap" that generates value. This two-part special report has focused primarily on product and technology roadmapping in industry. The first part (RTM, March-April 2003, pp. 26-59) examined the workings of the process at Lucent Technologies, Rockwell Automation, the pharmaceutical/biotechnology industry, and United Kingdom-based Domino Printing Sciences. This second part examines roadmapping in the UK, Motorola, General Motors, the services sector, and in cases that demand major investment decisions under conditions of volatility.

Gaussian Process Regression Networks

We introduce a new regression framework, Gaussian process regression networks (GPRN), which combines the structural properties of Bayesian neural networks with the non-parametric flexibility of Gaussian processes. This model accommodates input dependent signal and noise correlations between multiple response variables, input dependent length-scales and amplitudes, and heavy-tailed predictive distributions. We derive both efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo and variational Bayes inference procedures for this model. We apply GPRN as a multiple output regression and multivariate volatility model, demonstrating substantially improved performance over eight popular multiple output (multi-task) Gaussian process models and three multivariate volatility models on benchmark datasets, including a 1000 dimensional gene expression dataset.

Autoignition of monodisperse biodiesel and diesel sprays in turbulent flows

A new experimental configuration has been developed to examine the effects of flow on the autoignition of dilute diesel and biodiesel sprays, where the spray is injected in the form of monodisperse individual droplets at right angles to a hot air turbulent flow. The ignition location has been measured by monitoring the OH * chemiluminescence. A qualitative comparison of the flame behaviour between ethanol, acetone, heptane and biodiesel as fuels has also been carried out. With decreasing volatility of the fuel, the flame showed progressively a higher number of individual droplets burning, with the first autoignition spots appearing at random locations but in general earlier than the intense droplet-flame emission. The time-averaged autoignition length increased with increasing air velocity and with increasing intensity of the turbulence, while it decreased with the temperature and the droplet size. The data can be used for validating models for two-phase turbulent combustion. © 2012 Elsevier Inc.

Structure of igniting ethanol and n-heptane spray flames with and without swirl

This paper explores the ignition and subsequent evolution of spray flames in a bluff-body configuration with and without swirl. Ethanol and n-heptane are used to compare the effects of volatility. Ignition is performed by a laser spark. High speed imaging of OH *-chemiluminescence and OH-PLIF collected at 5kHz are used to investigate the behaviour of the flames during the first stages of ignition and the stable flame structure following ignition. Swirl induces a wider and shorter flame, precession, and multiple reaction zones, while the non-swirling flames have a simpler structure. The reaction fronts seem thinner with ethanol than with heptane. The dataset can be used for model validation. © 2012 Elsevier Inc.

Investigation into partially premixed combustion in a light-duty multi-cylinder diesel engine fuelled gasoline and diesel with a mixture of

Partially premixed compression ignition (PPCI) engines operating with a low temperature highly homogeneous charge have been demonstrated previously using conventional diesel fuel. The short ignition delay of conventional diesel fuel requires high fuel injection pressures to achieve adequate premixing along with high levels of EGR (exhaust gas recirculation) to achieve low NOx emissions. Low load operating regions are typified by substantial emissions of CO and HC and there exists an upper operating load limitation due to very high rates of in-cylinder gas pressure rise. In this study mixtures of gasoline and diesel fuel were investigated using a multi-cylinder light duty diesel engine. It was found that an increased proportion of gasoline fuel reduced smoke emissions at higher operating loads through an increase in charge premixing resulting from an increase in ignition delay and higher fuel volatility. The results of this investigation confirm that a combination of fuel properties, exhibiting higher volatility and increased ignition delay, would enable a widening of the low emission operating regime, but that consideration must be given to combustion stability at low operating loads. Copyright © 2007 SAE International.

Liquid fuel visualization using laser-induced fluoresence during cold start

The presence of liquid fuel inside the engine cylinder is believed to be a strong contributor to the high levels of hydrocarbon emissions from spark ignition (SI) engines during the warm-up period. Quantifying and determining the fate of the liquid fuel that enters the cylinder is the first step in understanding the process of emissions formation. This work uses planar laser induced fluorescence (PLIF) to visualize the liquid fuel present in the cylinder. The fluorescing compounds in indolene, and mixtures of iso-octane with dopants of different boiling points (acetone and 3-pentanone) were used to trace the behavior of different volatility components. Images were taken of three different planes through the engine intersecting the intake valve region. A closed valve fuel injection strategy was used, as this is the strategy most commonly used in practice. Background subtraction and masking were both performed to reduce the effect of any spurious fluorescence. The images were analyzed on both a time and crank angle (CA) basis, showing the time of maximum liquid fuel present in the cylinder and the effect of engine events on the inflow of liquid fuel. The results show details of the liquid fuel distribution as it enters the engine as a function of crankangle degree, volatility and location in the cylinder. A. semi-quantitative analysis based on the integration of the image intensities provides additional information on the temporal distribution of the liquid fuel flow. © 1998 Society of Automotive Engineers, Inc.

Discrete multicomponent model for biodiesel spray combustion simulation

An important first step in spray combustion simulation is an accurate determination of the fuel properties which affects the modelling of spray formation and reaction. In a practical combustion simulation, the implementation of a multicomponent model is important in capturing the relative volatility of different fuel components. A Discrete Multicomponent (DM) model is deemed to be an appropriate candidate to model a composite fuel like biodiesel which consists of four components of fatty acid methyl esters (FAME). In this paper, the DM model is compared with the traditional Continuous Thermodynamics (CTM) model for both diesel and biodiesel. The CTM model is formulated based on mixing rules that incorporate the physical and thermophysical properties of pure components into a single continuous surrogate for the composite fuel. The models are implemented within the open-source CFD code OpenFOAM, and a semi-quantitative comparison is made between the predicted spray-combustion characteristics and optical measurements of a swirl-stabilised flame of diesel and biodiesel. The DM model performs better than the CTM model in predicting a higher magnitude of heat release rate in the top flame brush region of the biodiesel flame compared to that of the diesel flame. Using both the DM and CTM models, the simulation successfully reproduces the droplet size, volume flux, and droplet density profiles of diesel and biodiesel. The DM model predicts a longer spray penetration length for biodiesel compared to that of diesel, as seen in the experimental data. Also, the DM model reproduces a segregated biodiesel fuel vapour field and spray in which the most abundant FAME component has the longest vapour penetration. In the biodiesel flame, the relative abundance of each fuel component is found to dominate over the relative volatility in terms of the vapour species distribution and vice versa in the liquid species distribution. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

粪肥堆腐过程中有机酸的变化

通过模拟试验研究了鸡粪和奶牛粪肥堆腐过程中有机酸的种类、含量和变化规律。结果表明 ,鸡粪腐熟过程中会形成和累积大量的有机酸 ,在堆腐的第 5周 ,最高含量可达 88 2cmol/kg ,DW ;不挥发性有机酸在堆腐的第 3周和第 5周分别达到两个高峰 ,挥发性有机酸在第 6周和第 9周分别达到高峰 ,到第 9周后 ,鸡粪中的有机酸大大降低。鸡粪中除了存在大量的芳香酸如苯二酸及其衍生物外 ,在堆腐的过程中还有大量的丁二酸及其衍生物等多元脂肪酸生成。奶牛粪肥的有机酸以不挥发性有机酸为主 ,总酸量最高可达 2 9 38cmol/kg ,DW ;奶牛粪肥中的不挥发有机酸主要是苯二羧酸的衍生物和长链脂肪酸。堆腐过程中有机酸的种类和数量变化较大。堆腐的第 6周 ,产生了多种激素类物质

高温实验中重金属钼在硅酸盐熔体中的含量研究

This dissertation discusses current status of high temperature and high pressure and focuses on analyzing systematically the solubility of heavy metals in the silicate magma in HTHP experiments. The high temperature study on the content of heavy metal molybdenum in the silicate melts in this dissertation, which is granted, based on the geology mineralization model and the theory of HTHP experiments and combined with mineralization grade and geochemical nature of Mo, discusses the difference of mineralization between mantle plume and aqueous fluids and comes to the conclusions, which are as follows: (1) The content of Mo in the silicate melts is much greater than Mo mineralization grade. The molybdenum ore has the exploitation value when the industrial grade is higher than 0.06%. Mo content in different silicate melts varies because of the concentration of SiO2, that is, Mo content in the granodiorite is greater. (2) The content of Mo, which varies with reaction time, arises first and drops down in the alkali basalt melts, while variation is not too obvious in the granodiorite melts on the whole. (3) According to the picture of sample, the conclusion is not reached very well on some issues, such as the volatility and characteristic of molybdenum oxide and dependence on the geology environment.

The Rawls-Tawney theorem and the digital divide in postindustrial society.

The digital divide continues to challenge political and academic circles worldwide. A range of policy solutions is briefly evaluated, from laissez-faire on the right to “arithmetic” egalitarianism on the left. The article recasts the digital divide as a problem for the social distribution of presumptively important information (e.g., electoral data, news, science) within postindustrial society. Endorsing in general terms the left-liberal approach of differential or “geometric” egalitarianism, it seeks to invest this with greater precision, and therefore utility, by means of a possibly original synthesis of the ideas of John Rawls and R. H. Tawney. It is argued that, once certain categories of information are accorded the status of “primary goods,” their distribution must then comply with principles of justice as articulated by those major 20th century exponents of ethical social democracy. The resultant Rawls-Tawney theorem, if valid, might augment the portfolio of options for interventionist information policy in the 21st century