Economic development and changes in car ownership patterns

The contributions of this paper are twofold: On the one hand, the paper analyses the factors determining the growth in car ownership in Spain over the last two decades, and, on the other, the paper provides empirical evidence for a controversial methodological issue. From a methodological point of view, the paper compares the two alternative decision mechanisms used for modelling car ownership: ordered-response versus unordered-response mechanisms. A discrete choice model is estimated at three points in time: 1980, 1990 and 2000. The study concludes that on the basis of forecasting performance, the multinomial logit model and the ordered probit model are almost undistinguishable. As for the empirical results, it can be emphasised that income elasticity is not constant and declines as car ownership increases. Besides, households living in rural areas are less sensitive than those living in urban areas. Car ownership is also sensitive to the quality of public transport for those living in the largest cities. The results also confirmed the existence of a generation effect, which will vanish around the year 2020, a weak life-cycle effect, and a positive effect of employment on the number of cars per household. Finally, the change in the estimated coefficients over time reflects an increase in mobility needs and, consequently, an increase in car ownership.

Multiple paternity and its consequences in the white campion " Silene latifolia "

Summary Several studies have demonstrated that the number of pollen donors siring seeds of individual fruits is frequently greater than one and, consequently, that plants have multiple mates. Multiple paternity can have important consequences at the population level. It influences the genetic variability of a population, the reproductive success of males and the fitness of females and future generations. It also influences male-male interactions for fertilization and it is fundamental in providing opportunity of female choice. I investigated the occurrence and the importance of multiple paternity within fruits in natural populations of the dioecious Silene latifolia using microsatellite DNA markers, especially developed for this study. I found that multiple paternity occurs in all populations investigated in the European range of the species, varying from one to nine sires per fruit with a mean of three, suggesting that multiple paternity is highly prevalent in natural populations. In the presence of multiple paternity I investigated if there was a female genotype influence on siring success of the males. I used the same pollen mixture from two males and applied it to three replicate females of different relatedness (two full sisters and one unrelated). I found female genotype influence in one of the two populations investigated, which might reflect different population history. Since these results suggested some degree of female choice, we investigated whether the occurrence of multiple paternity and post-pollination selection could provide opportunity for inbreeding avoidance. First, I measured inbreeding depression at different life-cycle stages for offspring obtained by single-donor crosses with brothers or unrelated males replicated on distinct flowers on the same female plant. To address inbreeding avoidance, I determined paternity in crosses using mixed pollen loads of the two males. I found significant inbreeding depression in the studied population, even under benign experimental conditions, and although the unrelated male did not sire significantly more offspring, there was an effect of genetic dissimilarity on paternity. This suggests that paternity is affected by relatedness among mates, but maybe additionally affected by other factors such as pollen competitive ability or male-female interactions. Using inbred and outbred crosses, I further investigated sex ratio bias inheritance in this species, and found that sex ratio bias of the parental generation was significantly correlated to pollen germination success of the F2 generation, which suggests that sex ratio bias in this species results from the specific X/Y combination and not only on Y performance. An effect of X and Y is consistent with sex chromosome meiotic drive. In conclusion, I found multiple paternity to be widespread in the study species and that females of similar genotype produce similar paternity shares. I found that inbreeding depression is substantial, therefore receiving pollen from several donors might lead to fewer inbred offspring, I also found an effect of genetic dissimilarity on paternity shares, which indicates that there is some ability to discriminate against related pollen, although this seems not to be the only determinant of paternity outcome. Finally I found sex ratio bias to be dependent on both X and Y chromosomes as predicted by sex chromosome meiotic drive. Résumé Plusieurs études ont démontré qu'il n'était pas rare que les graines contenues dans un même fruit soient issues de la fécondation par plusieurs pollens provenant de mâles différents, ce qui sous-entend que les plantes peuvent avoir plusieurs partenaires sexuels. La paternité multiple peut avoir d'importantes conséquences au niveau populationnel dans la mesure où elle peut influencer le degré de variabilité génétique de la population, le succès reproducteur des mâles, la fitness des femelles et des futures générations. La paternité multiple peut également avoir un impact sur les interactions mâle-mâle lors de la fertilisation et peut être considérée comme fondamentale vis-à-vis de la femelle, qui y trouve alors une opportunité de choisir son ou ses partenaires. Dans le cadre de ce travail de thèse j'ai cherché à déterminer si la paternité multiple était un phénomène observable et important dans les populations naturelles de l'espèce dioïque, Silene latifolia. Pour ce faire, j'ai utilisé des marqueurs microsatellites, spécialement développés pour cette étude. J'ai observé des phénomènes de paternité multiple dans toutes les populations de l'étude, réparties dans l'aire de distribution européenne de l'espèce. Le nombre de pères par fruit varie de un à neuf, avec un nombre moyen de trois, ce qui signifie que la paternité multiple est très répandue dans les populations naturelles. En raison de ces résultats, je me suis demandée si le génotype de la femelle influence le succès de paternité des mâles. J'ai alors réalisé des pollinisations manuelles sur la base d'un mélange de pollens issus de deux mâles, que j'ai appliqué sur trois femelles (réplicats) présentant différents degrés d'apparentement (deux soeurs. et une femelle étrangère). Il ressort de cette expérience que le génotype de la femelle peut influencer la paternité dans l'une des deux populations étudiées, ce qui pourrait refléter des différences en terme d'histoire des populations. Dans la mesure où ces résultats suggèrent un certain degré de choix chez la femelle, j'ai cherché à savoir si la paternité multiple et la sélection post-pollinisation pouvaient être des moyens d'éviter les croisements consanguins. Dans un premier temps, j'ai évalué la dépression de consanguinité à différentes étapes du cycle de vie chez des descendants issus de croisements à un seul donneur, celui-ci étant alternativement un frère ou un étranger, répliqués sur plusieurs fleurs d'une même plante femelle. Afin d'estimer l'évitement de croisements consanguins, j'ai effectué des croisements dont le pollen était un mélange des deux mâles (frère et étranger), puis j'ai déterminé la paternité dans les fruits obtenus. J'ai pu mettre en évidence un effet de dépression de consanguinité- significatif dans les populations étudiées, même dans des conditions expérimentales moins rudes qu'à l'extérieur. Bien que le mâle étranger n'ait pas engendré un nombre significativement plus important de graines, il y avait un effet de dissimilarité génétique sur la paternité. Ceci suggère que la paternité est affectée par le degré d'apparentement entre les partenaires, mais qu'elle peut aussi être affectée par d'autres facteurs tels que la compétitivité du pollen ou encore par les interactions mâles-femelles. L'utilisation de croisements consanguins et hybrides m'a également permis d'étudier l'héritabilité du biais de sex ratio chez cette espèce. Il s'est avéré que le biais de sex ratio de la génération parentale était significativement corrélé au succès de germination du pollen de la génération F2, ce qui signifie que, chez cette espèce, le biais de sex ratio résulte d'une combinaison spécifique de X/Y et non uniquement de la performance de Y. Un effet de X et Y est compatible avec l'hypothèse de distorsion de ségrégation méiotique des chromosomes sexuels. En conclusion, il ressort de mes résultats que la paternité multiple est un phénomène largement répandu chez S. latifolia et la paternité accomplie par un mâle est plus similaire entre soeurs qu'avec une femelle étrangère J'ai également mis en évidence que la dépression de consanguinité a un impact considérable; aussi, recevoir du pollen de plusieurs donneurs différents pourrait permettre à la femelle de produire moins de descendants consanguins. J'ai aussi trouvé un effet de la dissimilarité génétique sur le partage de paternité, ce qui indique que la discrimination contre le pollen d'apparentés est possible, bien que cela ne semble pas être le seul facteur déterminant dans le résultat de la paternité. Enfin, j'ai trouvé que le biais de sex ratio est dépendant des deux chromosomes X et Y, conformément à la théorie de distorsion de ségrégation méiotique des chromosomes sexuels.

Political Risk, Economic Integration, and the Foreign Direct Investment Decision

In this paper we analyse the impact of policy uncertainty on foreign direct investment strategies. We also consider the impact of economic integration upon FDI decisions. The paper follows the real options approach, which allows investigating the value to a firm of waiting to invest and/or disinvest, when payoffs are stochastic due to political uncertainty and investments are partially reversible. Across the board we find that political uncertainty can be very detrimental to FDI decisions while economic integration leads to an increasing benefit of investing abroad.

Education and Economic Development in India

This brief survey examines the returns to education in India , and then examines the role of education on both economic growth and economic development with particular reference to India. Throughout, the objective is to draw out the implications of the empirical results for education policy. The results suggest that female education is of particular importance in India. They also suggest that perhaps because of the externalities it generates, primary education is more important than might be deduced from its relatively low private rate of return.

The Importance of Revenue Sharing for the Local Economic Impacts of a Renewable Energy Project: A Social Accounting Matrix Approach

As demand for electricity from renewable energy sources grows, there is increasing interest, and public and financial support, for local communities to become involved in the development of renewable energy projects. In the UK, “Community Benefit” payments are the most common financial link between renewable energy projects and local communities. These are “goodwill” payments from the project developer for the community to spend as it wishes. However, if an ownership stake in the renewable energy project were possible, receipts to the local community would potentially be considerably higher. The local economic impacts of these receipts are difficult to quantify using traditional Input-Output techniques, but can be more appropriately handled within a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) framework where income flows between agents can be traced in detail. We use a SAM for the Shetland Islands to evaluate the potential local economic and employment impact of a large onshore wind energy project proposed for the Islands. Sensitivity analysis is used to show how the local impact varies with: the level of Community Benefit payments; the portion of intermediate inputs being sourced from within the local economy; and the level of any local community ownership of the project. By a substantial margin, local ownership confers the greatest economic impacts for the local community.

Do institutions matter for economic fluctuations? Weak property rights in a business cycle model for Mexico

This paper shows that introducing weak property rights in the standard real business cycle (RBC) model can help to explain economic fluctuations. This is motivated by the empirical observation that changes in institutions in emerging markets are related to the evolution of the main macroeconomic variables. In particular, in Mexico, the movements in productivity in the data are associated with changes in institutions, so that we can explain productivity shocks to a large extent as shocks to the quality of institutions. We find that the model with shocks to the degree of protection of property rights only - without technology shocks - can match the second moments in the data for Mexico well. In particular, the fit is better than that of the standard neoclassical model with full protection of property rights regarding the auto-correlations and cross-correlations in the data, especially those related to labor. Viewing productivity shocks as shocks to institutions is also consistent with the stylized fact of falling productivity and non-decreasing labor hours in Mexico over 1980-1994, which is a feature that the neoclassical model cannot match.

The Economic Effects of Micronutrient Deficiency: Evidence from Salt Iodization in the United States

Iodine deficiency is the leading cause of preventable mental retardation in the world today. Iodine deficiency was common in the developed world until the introduction of iodized salt in the 1920’s. The incidence of iodine deficiency is connected to low iodine levels in the soil and water. We examine the impact of salt iodization in the US by taking advantage of this natural geographic variation. Areas with high pre-treatment levels of iodine deficiency provide a treatment group which we can compare to a control group of low iodine deficiency areas. In the US, salt was iodized over a very short period of time around 1924. We use previously unused data collected during WWI and WWII to compare outcomes of cohorts born before and after iodization, in localities that were naturally poor and rich in iodine. We find evidence of the beneficial effects of iodization on the cognitive abilities of the cohorts exposed to it.

Institutions and Economic Development. New tests and new doubts.

Is institutional quality a major driver of economic development? This paper tackles the question by focusing on the within-country variation of growth rates of GDP per capita. While previous attempts using this methodology have controlled for many of the standard de- terminants of the empirical growth literature, we argue that such ap- proach is not adequate if good institutions are the main reason behind decisions to invest in human or physical capital accumulation or to engage in international trade. Our regressions exclude the proximate causes of growth in order to estimate the overall e¤ect of institutional quality. Perhaps surprisingly, we nd no support for the thesis that institutional quality improves economic growth. These results encourage a reconsideration of the evidence provided elsewhere in the literature.

The Distributional Consequences of Supply-Side Reforms in General Equilibrium

This paper addresses the issue on whether tax reforms consisten with lower public debt-to-GDP in the long-run can lead to a more efficient and equitable economy. To this end we solve a heterogeneous agent model comprised of a government, a representative capitalist and representative skilled and unskilled workers, under both rational expectations and adaptive learning. Our main ndings are that (i) reductions in capital taxation, while bene cial at the aggregate level, lead to increased inequality mainly due to the substitutability of un- skilled labour and capital; (ii) a fall in taxation for skilled labour is Pareto improving, which is largely explained by its complementarity with the other factor inputs; (iii) all agents would prefer increasing the tax rate on capital to increasing the tax rate on skilled and un- skilled labour since it leads to relatively lower welfare losses; and (iv) heterogeneity in initial beliefs under adaptive learning quantitatively matters for welfare.

Consequences of smoking for body weight, body fat distribution, and insulin resistance

Our aim was to critically evaluate the relations among smoking, body weight, body fat distribution, and insulin resistance as reported in the literature. In the short term, nicotine increases energy expenditure and could reduce appetite, which may explain why smokers tend to have lower body weight than do nonsmokers and why smoking cessation is frequently followed by weight gain. In contrast, heavy smokers tend to have greater body weight than do light smokers or nonsmokers, which likely reflects a clustering of risky behaviors (eg, low degree of physical activity, poor diet, and smoking) that is conducive to weight gain. Other factors, such as weight cycling, could also be involved. In addition, smoking increases insulin resistance and is associated with central fat accumulation. As a result, smoking increases the risk of metabolic syndrome and diabetes, and these factors increase risk of cardiovascular disease. In the context of the worldwide obesity epidemic and a high prevalence of smoking, the greater risk of (central) obesity and insulin resistance among smokers is a matter of major concern

First-and second-best allocations under economic and environmental uncertainty

This paper uses a micro-founded DSGE model to compare second-best optimal environmental policy and the resulting allocation to first-best allocation. The focus is on the source and size of uncertainty, and how this affects optimal choices and the inferiority of second best vis-à-vis first best.