Adding value to ecological risk assessment with population modeling

Current measures used to estimate the risks of toxic chemicals are not relevant to the goals of the environmental protection process, and thus ecological risk assessment (ERA) is not used as extensively as it should be as a basis for cost-effective management of environmental resources. Appropriate population models can provide a powerful basis for expressing ecological risks that better inform the environmental management process and thus that are more likely to be used by managers. Here we provide at least five reasons why population modeling should play an important role in bridging the gap between what we measure and what we want to protect. We then describe six actions needed for its implementation into management-relevant ERA.

Sizing reserves within a landscape: the roles of villagers' reactions and the ecological-socioeconomic setting

Traditionally, siting and sizing decisions for parks and reserves reflected ecological characteristics but typically failed to consider ecological costs created from displaced resource collection, welfare costs on nearby rural people, and enforcement costs. Using a spatial game-theoretic model that incorporates the interaction of socioeconomic and ecological settings, we show how incorporating more recent mandates that include rural welfare and surrounding landscapes can result in very different optimal sizing decisions. The model informs our discussion of recent forest management in Tanzania, reserve sizing and siting decisions, estimating reserve effectiveness, and determining patterns of avoided forest degradation in Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation programs.

Firm size and competition: a comparison of the housebuilding industries in Australia, the UK and the USA

Housebuilding is frequently viewed as an industry full of small firms. However, large firms exist in many countries. Here, a comparative analysis is made of the housebuilding industries in Australia, Britain and the USA. Housebuilding output is found to be much higher in Australia and the USA than in Britain when measured on a per capita basis. At the same time, the degree of market concentration in Australia and the USA is relatively low but in Britain it is far greater, with a few firms having quite substantial market shares. Investigation of the size distribution of the top 100 or so firms ranked by output also shows that the decline in firm size from the largest downwards is more rapid in Britain than elsewhere. The exceptionalism of the British case is put down to two principal reasons. First, the close proximity of Britain’s regions enables housebuilders to diversify successfully across different markets. The gains from such diversification are best achieved by large firms, because they can gain scale benefits in any particular market segment. Second, land shortages induced by a restrictive planning system encourage firms to takeover each other as a quick and beneficial means of acquiring land. The institutional rules of planning also make it difficult for new entrants to come in at the bottom end of the size hierarchy. In this way, concentration grows and a handful of large producers emerge. These conditions do not hold in the other two countries, so their industries are less concentrated. Given the degree of rivalry between firms over land purchases and takeovers, it is difficult to envisage them behaving in a long-term collusive manner, so that competition in British housebuilding is probably not unduly compromised by the exceptional degree of firm concentration. Reforms to lower the restrictions, improve the slow responsiveness and reduce the uncertainties associated with British planning systems’ role in housing supply are likely to greatly improve the ability of new firms to enter housebuilding and all firms’ abilities to increase output in response to rising housing demand. Such reforms would also probably lower overall housebuilding firm concentration over time.

Competition and product survival in the UK car market

The paper examines the extent to which inter- and intra-firm competition influenced the survival of cars in the UK market between 1971 and 1998. It is shown that, while competition influenced product survival in all market segments within the UK car market, the nature of that competition differed between them. In the small family and large family car segments, intra-firm competition dominated inter-firm competition. In contrast, in the luxury/sports car segment only inter-firm competition conditions resulted in product survival. Evidence was also found that the luxury/sports car segment has grown more competitive over time and that firms marketing products in the family car segments have become considerably more successful at avoiding the effects of intra-firm competition.

The monitoring of ecological quality and the classification of standing waters in temperate regions: a review and proposal based on a worked scheme for British waters

This paper reviews the ways that quality can be assessed in standing waters, a subject that has hitherto attracted little attention but which is now a legal requirement in Europe. It describes a scheme for the assessment and monitoring of water and ecological quality in standing waters greater than about I ha in area in England & Wales although it is generally relevant to North-west Europe. Thirteen hydrological, chemical and biological variables are used to characterise the standing water body in any current sampling. These are lake volume, maximum depth, onductivity, Secchi disc transparency, pH, total alkalinity, calcium ion concentration, total N concentration,winter total oxidised inorganic nitrogen (effectively nitrate) concentration, total P concentration, potential maximum chlorophyll a concentration, a score based on the nature of the submerged and emergent plant community, and the presence or absence of a fish community. Inter alia these variables are key indicators of the state of eutrophication, acidification, salinisation and infilling of a water body.

Community-based climate change adaptation strategies for integrated prawn-fish-rice farming in Bangladesh to promote social-ecological resilience

Farming freshwater prawns with fish in rice fields is widespread in coastal regions of southwest Bangladesh because of favourable resources and ecological conditions. This article provides an overview of an ecosystem-based approach to integrated prawn-fish-rice farming in southwest Bangladesh. The practice of prawn and fish farming in rice fields is a form of integrated aquaculture-agriculture, which provides a wide range of social, economic and environmental benefits. Integrated prawn-fish-rice farming plays an important role in the economy of Bangladesh, earning foreign exchange and increasing food production. However, this unique farming system in coastal Bangladesh is particularly vulnerable to climatechange. We suggest that community-based adaptation strategies must be developed to cope with the challenges. We propose that integrated prawn-fish-rice farming could be relocated from the coastal region to less vulnerable upland areas, but caution that this will require appropriate adaptation strategies and an enabling institutional environment.

First steps in experimental cancer evolution

Evolutionary processes play a central role in the development, progression and response to treatment of cancers. The current challenge facing researchers is to harness evolutionary theory to further our understanding of the clinical progression of cancers. Central to this endeavour will be the development of experimental systems and approaches by which theories of cancer evolution can be effectively tested. We argue here that the experimental evolution approach – whereby evolution is observed in real time and which has typically employed microorganisms – can be usefully applied to cancer. This approach allows us to disentangle the ecological causes of natural selection, identify the genetic basis of evolutionary changes and determine their repeatability. Cell cultures used in cancer research share many of the desirable traits that make microorganisms ideal for studying evolution. As such, experimental cancer evolution is feasible and likely to give great insight into the selective pressures driving the evolution of clinically destructive cancer traits. We highlight three areas of evolutionary theory with importance to cancer biology that are amenable to experimental evolution: drug resistance, social evolution and resource competition. Understanding the diversity, persistence and evolution of cancers is vital for treatment and drug development, and an experimental evolution approach could provide strategic directions and focus for future research.

Tax principles, product differentiation and the nature of competition

We analyze the choice between the origin and destination principles of taxation when there is product differentiation and Bertrand competition. If taxes are redistributed to consumers and demand is linear the origin principle dominates the destination principle whatever the degree of product differentiation and extent of economic integration. With nonlinear demand the origin principle dominates if there is sufficient economic integration. When the social value assigned to tax revenue is higher than the private value, the destination principle dominates for intermediate values of product differentiation and economic integration. The same results are also shown to hold with Cournot competition.

Prizes for modernity in the provinces: The Arts Council’s 1950-1951 regional playwriting competition

As part of its contribution to the 1951 Festival of Britain, the Arts Council ran what can be seen in retrospect to be an important playwriting competition. Disregarding the London stage entirely, it invited regional theatres throughout the UK to put forward nominations for new plays within their repertoire for 1950-1951. Each of the five winning plays would receive, what was then, the substantial sum of £100. Originality and innovation featured highly amongst the selection criteria, with 40 per cent of the judges’ marks being awarded for “interest of subject matter and inventiveness of treatment”. This article will assess some of the surprising outcomes of the competition and argue that it served as an important nexus point in British theatrical historiography between two key moments in post-war Britain: the first being the inauguration of the Festival of Britain in 1951, the other being the debut of John Osborne’s Look Back in Anger in May 1956. The article will also argue that the Arts Council’s play competition was significant for two other reasons. By circumventing the London stage, it provides a useful tool by which to reassess the state of new writing in regional theatre at the beginning of the 1950s and to question how far received views of parochialism and conservatism held true. The paper will also put forward a case for the competition significantly anticipating the work of George Devine at the English Stage Company, which during its early years established a reputation for itself by heavily exploiting the repertoire of new plays originally commissioned by regional theatres. This article forms part of a five year funded Arts and Humanities Research Council (AHRC) project, ‘Giving Voice to the Nation: The Arts Council of Great Britain and the Development of Theatre and Performance in Britain 1945-1994’. Details of the Arts Council’s archvie, which is housed at the Victoria & Albert Museum in London can be found at http://www.vam.ac.uk/vastatic/wid/ead/acgb/acgbf.html Keywords: Arts Council of Great Britain, regional theatre, playwriting, Festival of Britain, English Stage Company (Royal Court) , Yvonne Mitchell