An intelligent system to real time rainfall prediction using radar data

This work presents a new approach for rainfall measurements making use of weather radar data for real time application to the radar systems operated by institute of Meteorological Research (IPMET) - UNESP - Bauru - SP-Brazil. Several real time adjustment techniques has been presented being most of them based on surface rain-gauge network. However, some of these methods do not regard the effect of the integration area, time integration and distance rainfall-radar. In this paper, artificial neural networks have been applied for generate a radar reflectivity-rain relationships which regard all effects described above. To evaluate prediction procedure, cross validation was performed using data from IPMET weather Doppler radar and rain-gauge network under the radar umbrella. The preliminary results were acceptable for rainfalls prediction. The small errors observed result from the spatial density and the time resolution of the rain-gauges networks used to calibrate the radar.

Prediction and spatial variability of soil dynamic properties in sugar cane fields of São Paulo State Brazil

The objective of this work was to model and diagnose the spatial variability of soil load support capacity (SLSC) in sugar cane crop fields, as well as to evaluate the management impact on São Paulo State soil structure. The investigated variables were: pressure preconsolidation (sigma(p)), apparent cohesion () and internal friction angle (). The conclusions from the results were that the models and spatial dependence maps constitute important tools in the prediction and location of the mechanical internal strength of soils cultivated with sugar cane. They will help future soil management decisions so that soil structure sustainability will not be compromised.

Prediction via neural networks of the residual hydrogen peroxide used in photo-fenton processes for effluent treatment

This communication proposes the use of neural networks in the prediction of residual concentrations of hydrogen peroxide from the treatment of effluents through Advanced Oxidative Processes (AOP's), in particular, the photo-Fenton process. To verify the efficiency of the oxidative process, the Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD) parameter, the values of which may be modified by the presence of oxidizing agents such as residual hydrogen peroxide, is frequently taken in account. The analysis of the H2O2 interference was performed by spectrophotometry at 450 nm wavelength, via the monitoring of the reaction of ammonia with metavanadate. The results of the hydrogen peroxide residual concentration were modeled via a feedforward neural network, with the correlation coefficients between actual and predicted values above 0.96, indicating good prediction capacity.

Optimization of Radial Basis Function neural network employed for prediction of surface roughness in hard turning process using Taguchi's orthogonal arrays

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

The Sao Vicente earthquake of 2008 April and seismicity in the continental shelf off SE Brazil: further evidence for flexural stresses

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Use of progeny testing in beef cattle: Prediction of genetic gain in a Nelore Cattle Breeding Program

Genetic gains predicted for selection, based on both individual performance and progeny testing, were compared to provide information to be used in implementation of progeny testing for a Nelore cattle breeding program. The prediction of genetic gain based on progeny testing was obtained from a formula, derived from methodology of Young and Weiler (J. Genetics 57: 329-338, 1960) for two-stage selection, which allows prediction of genetic gain per generation when the individuals under test have been pre-selected on the basis of their own performance. The application of this formula also allowed determination of the number of progeny per tested bull needed to maximize genetic gain, when the total number of tested progeny is limited.

Morphological prediction of worker size discrimination and relative abundance of sympartic species of Pseudacteon (Dipt., Phoridae) parasitoids of the fire ant, Solenopsis saevissima (Hym., Formicidae) in Brazil

Patterns of attack for collected species of phorids are predicted using multivariate morphometrics of female Pseudacteon species and worker size distributions of parasitized fire ants, Solenopsis saevissima. The model assumes that there is a direct correlation between phorid size and the size range of the worker ant attacked, and presumes that worker sizes are a resource that is divided by sympatric phorid species to minimize joint parasitism. These results suggest that the community of sympatric Pseudacteon species on only one host species coexists by restricting the size of workers attacked, and secondarily by differing diel patterns of ovipositional activity. When we compared relative abundance of species of Pseudacteon with the size distribution of foragers of S. saevissima, our observed distribution did not differ significantly from our predicted relative abundance of females of Pseudacteon. The activity of Pseudacteon may be a factor determining forager size distributions.

A program for terpenoid skeleton prediction based on botanical information

This paper describes a new program developed to the SISTEMAT expert system, the SISOCBOT program. This program employs the botanical data analysis and predicts, at the end of analysis, the probable skeleton of a compound based on the input of family or genus names. The SISOCBOT program was tested with 78 samples involving 302 substances, pertaining to 38 carbon skeletons, and showed a high hit index on skeleton prediction, thus emphasizing the potential importance of these data for structural determination of natural products. © 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Local dimension and finite time prediction in spatiotemporal chaotic systems

Predictability is related to the uncertainty in the outcome of future events during the evolution of the state of a system. The cluster weighted modeling (CWM) is interpreted as a tool to detect such an uncertainty and used it in spatially distributed systems. As such, the simple prediction algorithm in conjunction with the CWM forms a powerful set of methods to relate predictability and dimension.

Three-body recombination in ultracold systems: Prediction of weakly-bound atomic trimer energies

The three-body recombination coefficient of an ultracold atomic system, together with the corresponding two-body scattering length a, allow us to predict the energy E 3 of the shallow trimer bound state, using a universal scaling function. The production of dimers in trapped Bose-Einstein condensates, from three-body recombination processes, in the regime of short magnetic pulses near a Feshbach resonance, is also studied in line with the experimental observation.

Local dimension and finite time prediction in coupled map lattices

Forecasting, for obvious reasons, often become the most important goal to be achieved. For spatially extended systems (e.g. atmospheric system) where the local nonlinearities lead to the most unpredictable chaotic evolution, it is highly desirable to have a simple diagnostic tool to identify regions of predictable behaviour. In this paper, we discuss the use of the bred vector (BV) dimension, a recently introduced statistics, to identify the regimes where a finite time forecast is feasible. Using the tools from dynamical systems theory and Bayesian modelling, we show the finite time predictability in two-dimensional coupled map lattices in the regions of low BV dimension. © Indian Academy of Sciences.

Prediction of voltage over electrodes' filaments of fluorescent lamps during dimming operation

This paper presents an investigation concerning the use of fundamental approximation analysis and a new lamp model for the prediction of the voltage over electrodes' filaments during dimming operation. The lamp model employed in this paper is based on equivalent resistances, which represent the electrodes' filaments and the gas column of a F32T8 lamp. Experimental results are presented in this paper, indicating the validity of the proposed analysis and confirming its potential to serve as an effective tool for the design of dimming electronic ballasts. © 2005 IEEE.

Estimation of variance components and prediction of breeding values in rubber tree breeding using the REML/BLUP procedure

The present paper deals with estimation of variance components, prediction of breeding values and selection in a population of rubber tree [Hevea brasiliensis (Willd. ex Adr. de Juss.) Müell.-Arg.] from Rio Branco, State of Acre, Brazil. The REML/BLUP (restricted maximum likelihood/best linear unbiased prediction) procedure was applied. For this purpose, 37 rubber tree families were obtained and assessed in a randomized complete block design, with three unbalanced replications. The field trial was carried out at the Experimental Station of UNESP, located in Selvíria, State of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil. The quantitative traits evaluated were: girth (G), bark thickness (BT), number of latex vessel rings (NR), and plant height (PH). Given the unbalanced condition of the progeny test, the REML/BLUP procedure was used for estimation. The narrow-sense individual heritability estimates were 0.43 for G, 0.18 for BT, 0.01 for NR, and 0.51 for PH. Two selection strategies were adopted: one short-term (ST - selection intensity of 8.85%) and the other long-term (LT - selection intensity of 26.56%). For G, the estimated genetic gains in relation to the population average were 26.80% and 17.94%, respectively, according to the ST and LT strategies. The effective population sizes were 22.35 and 46.03, respectively. The LT and ST strategies maintained 45.80% and 28.24%, respectively, of the original genetic diversity represented in the progeny test. So, it can be inferred that this population has potential for both breeding and ex situ genetic conservation as a supplier of genetic material for advanced rubber tree breeding programs. Copyright by the Brazilian Society of Genetics.