Dynamic stackelberg game with risk-averse players: optimal risk-sharing under asymmetric information

The objective of this paper is to clarify the interactive nature of the leader-follower relationship when both players are endogenously risk-averse. The analysis is placed in the context of a dynamic closed-loop Stackelberg game with private information. The case of a risk-neutral leader, very often discussed in the literature, is only a borderline possibility in the present study. Each player in the game is characterized by a risk-averse type which is unknown to his opponent. The goal of the leader is to implement an optimal incentive compatible risk-sharing contract. The proposed approach provides a qualitative analysis of adaptive risk behavior profiles for asymmetrically informed players in the context of dynamic strategic interactions modelled as incentive Stackelberg games.

Nash equilibrium strategies in discrete-time finite-horizon dynamic games with risk-and effort-averse players

The objective of this paper is to re-examine the risk-and effort attitude in the context of strategic dynamic interactions stated as a discrete-time finite-horizon Nash game. The analysis is based on the assumption that players are endogenously risk-and effort-averse. Each player is characterized by distinct risk-and effort-aversion types that are unknown to his opponent. The goal of the game is the optimal risk-and effort-sharing between the players. It generally depends on the individual strategies adopted and, implicitly, on the the players' types or characteristics.

Proyecto de salud communitaria en un barrio marginal de Quito : evaluación de las necesidades y planteamiento de una red de prevención y attención primaria : documento para la acción local

Résumé du document de thèse Quito, capitale andine de près de deux millions d'habitants, a vu se développer des quartiers ghettos réunissant une population en constante évolution. Mouvements migratoires mal connus, hétérogénéité ethnique et socioculturelle, accès limité aux services publics et conditions de vie difficiles jouent un rôle essentiel mais complexe dans la planification des services de santé. L'étude ciblée de cette problématique est un sérieux défi à relever car les mégalopoles latino-américaines connaissent une importante urbanisation avec pour corollaire une augmentation de la pauvreté urbaine. Les indicateurs de santé tels que mortalité infantile, espérance de vie ou incidence des maladies infectieuses montrent une amélioration globale qui ne reflète toutefois pas les importantes disparités caractéristiques du continent. La démarche exposée dans ce document est une réponse à la demande d'un appui médical par une communauté urbaine défavorisée, pour laquelle peu de données étaient disponibles. Une évaluation des conditions de vie et des besoins en soins a donc été effectuée par trois étudiants en médecine de Lausanne au moyen d'une enquête et d'ateliers qui ont permis de réunir les opinions des différents acteurs sociaux et sanitaires. Cette étude a pu identifier et mesurer les déterminants de santé, comprendre certaines dynamiques locales pour enfin cibler les principales lignes d'actions d'un centre de santé communautaire. Ce document décrit l'ensemble du processus conduit durant cinq ans et expose les données brutes ainsi que leur analyse ; il propose des recommandations concrètes pour une promotion de la santé adaptée aux besoins d'une communauté urbaine défavorisée d'Amérique du Sud. Son objectif est de fournir des données utilisables par les acteurs de santé locaux et de participer ainsi à la réflexion en cours sur la réforme du système de santé équatorien. Il comporte également une bibliographie, point de départ pour d'autres études sur le sujet. Le dossier, construit de manière chronologique, présente l'information de façon accessible et cohérente. Il se veut un témoignage utile, avec ses forces et ses faiblesses, à l'action locale sous forme d'une publication en espagnol qui sera distribuée aux différents acteurs sociaux et sanitaires concernés.

Less frequent dosing of erythropoiesis stimulating agents in patients undergoing dialysis: a European multicentre cost study.

OBJECTIVE: To calculate the variable costs involved with the process of delivering erythropoiesis stimulating agents (ESA) in European dialysis practices. METHODS: A conceptual model was developed to classify the processes and sub-processes followed in the pharmacy (ordering from supplier, receiving/storing/delivering ESA to the dialysis unit), dialysis unit (dose determination, ordering, receipt, registration, storage, administration, registration) and waste disposal unit. Time and material costs were recorded. Labour costs were derived from actual local wages while material costs came from the facilities' accounting records. Activities associated with ESA administration were listed and each activity evaluated to determine if dosing frequency affected the amount of resources required. RESULTS: A total of 21 centres in 8 European countries supplied data for 142 patients (mean) per hospital (range 42-648). Patients received various ESA regimens (thrice-weekly, twice-weekly, once-weekly, once every 2 weeks and once-monthly). Administering ESA every 2 weeks, the mean costs per patient per year for each process and the estimates of the percentage reduction in costs obtainable, respectively, were: pharmacy labour (10.1 euro, 39%); dialysis unit labour (66.0 euro, 65%); dialysis unit materials (4.11 euro, 61%) and waste unit materials (0.43 euro, 49%). LIMITATION: Impact on financial costs was not measured. CONCLUSION: ESA administration has quantifiable labour and material costs which are affected by dosing frequency.

In vitro growth of human urinary tract smooth muscle cells on laminin and collagen type I-coated membranes under static and dynamic conditions.

This study investigates in vitro growth of human urinary tract smooth muscle cells under static conditions and mechanical stimulation. The cells were cultured on collagen type I- and laminin-coated silicon membranes. Using a Flexcell device for mechanical stimulation, a cyclic strain of 0-20% was applied in a strain-stress-time model (stretch, 104 min relaxation, 15 s), imitating physiological bladder filling and voiding. Cell proliferation and alpha-actin, calponin, and caldesmon phenotype marker expression were analyzed. Nonstretched cells showed significant better growth on laminin during the first 8 days, thereafter becoming comparable to cells grown on collagen type I. Cyclic strain significantly reduced cell growth on both surfaces; however, better growth was observed on laminin. Neither the type of surface nor mechanical stimulation influenced the expression pattern of phenotype markers; alpha-actin was predominantly expressed. Coating with the extracellular matrix protein laminin improved in vitro growth of human urinary tract smooth muscle cells.

Dynamic of population-dynamics in a medically important snail species Lymnaea (Radix) Luteola (Lamarck)

The life-cycle parameters of the snail Lymnaea (Radix) luteola and the factors influencing the same have been studied under laboratory conditions. Ins each month, from July 1990 to June 1991, a batch of 100 zero-day old individual were considered for studies. The snails of April batch survived for 19.42 days while those in December batch survived for 87.45 days. The May batch individual though survived for 65.67 days gained maximum shell size (15.84 mm in length) and body weight (419.87 mg). All individuals of April batch died prior to attainment of sexual maturity. In the remaining 11 batches the snails became sexually mature between 32 and 53 days. At this stage, they were with varying shell lengths, 9.3 mm to 13,11 mm in respect to batches. The reproduction period varied from 1-67 days. An individual laid, on an average, 0,25 (March batch) to 443.67 (May batch) eggs in its life-span. A batch of such snails would leave 24312, 22520, 720268, 80408, 76067, 418165, 214, 9202, 0, 0, 2459386 and 127894 individuals at the end of 352nd day. Since the environmental conditions were almost similar the 'dynamic' of population dynamics seems to be involved with the 'strain' of the snail individuals of the batches concerned.

Prediction of the economic cost of individual long-term care in the Spanish population

Pensions together with savings and investments during active life are key elements of retirement planning. Motivation for personal choices about the standard of living, bequest and the replacement ratio of pension with respect to last salary income must be considered. This research contributes to the financial planning by helping to quantify long-term care economic needs. We estimate life expectancy from retirement age onwards. The economic cost of care per unit of service is linked to the expected time of needed care and the intensity of required services. The expected individual cost of long-term care from an onset of dependence is estimated separately for men and women. Assumptions on the mortality of the dependent people compared to the general population are introduced. Parameters defining eligibility for various forms of coverage by the universal public social care of the welfare system are addressed. The impact of the intensity of social services on individual predictions is assessed, and a partial coverage by standard private insurance products is also explored. Data were collected by the Spanish Institute of Statistics in two surveys conducted on the general Spanish population in 1999 and in 2008. Official mortality records and life table trends were used to create realistic scenarios for longevity. We find empirical evidence that the public long-term care system in Spain effectively mitigates the risk of incurring huge lifetime costs. We also find that the most vulnerable categories are citizens with moderate disabilities that do not qualify to obtain public social care support. In the Spanish case, the trends between 1999 and 2008 need to be further explored.

Cost evaluation of cardiovascular magnetic resonance versus coronary angiography for the diagnostic work-up of coronary artery disease: Application of the European Cardiovascular Magnetic Resonance registry data to the German, United Kingdom, Swiss, and United States health care systems.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) has favorable characteristics for diagnostic evaluation and risk stratification of patients with known or suspected CAD. CMR utilization in CAD detection is growing fast. However, data on its cost-effectiveness are scarce. The goal of this study is to compare the costs of two strategies for detection of significant coronary artery stenoses in patients with suspected coronary artery disease (CAD): 1) Performing CMR first to assess myocardial ischemia and/or infarct scar before referring positive patients (defined as presence of ischemia and/or infarct scar to coronary angiography (CXA) versus 2) a hypothetical CXA performed in all patients as a single test to detect CAD. METHODS: A subgroup of the European CMR pilot registry was used including 2,717 consecutive patients who underwent stress-CMR. From these patients, 21% were positive for CAD (ischemia and/or infarct scar), 73% negative, and 6% uncertain and underwent additional testing. The diagnostic costs were evaluated using invoicing costs of each test performed. Costs analysis was performed from a health care payer perspective in German, United Kingdom, Swiss, and United States health care settings. RESULTS: In the public sectors of the German, United Kingdom, and Swiss health care systems, cost savings from the CMR-driven strategy were 50%, 25% and 23%, respectively, versus outpatient CXA. If CXA was carried out as an inpatient procedure, cost savings were 46%, 50% and 48%, respectively. In the United States context, cost savings were 51% when compared with inpatient CXA, but higher for CMR by 8% versus outpatient CXA. CONCLUSION: This analysis suggests that from an economic perspective, the use of CMR should be encouraged as a management option for patients with suspected CAD.

Banning Obsolete Weapons or Reshaping Perceptions of Military Utility: Discursive Dynamics in Weapons Prohibitions

The paper focuses on the argumentative process through which new international norms prohibiting the use of weapons causing severe civilian harm emerge. It examines the debate surrounding the use and usefulness of landmines and cluster munitions and traces the process through which NGOs change conceptions of military utility and effectiveness of certain weapons by highlighting their humanitarian problems and questioning their military value. By challenging military thinking on these issues, NGOs redefine the terms of the debate – from a commonplace practice, the use of such weapons becomes controversial and military decisions need to be justified. The argument-counterargument dynamic shifts the burden of proof of the necessity and safety of the weapons to the users. The process witnesses the ability of NGOs to influence debates on military issues despite their disadvantaged position in hard security issue areas. It also challenges realist assumptions that only weapons that are obsolete or low-cost force equalizers for weak actors can be banned. To the contrary, the paper shows that in the case of landmines and cluster munitions, defining the military (in)effectiveness of the weapons is part and parcel of the struggle for their prohibition.

Dynamic calibration of our sense of time.

An accurate sense of time contributes to functions ranging from the perception and anticipation of sensory events to the production of coordinated movements. However, accumulating evidence demonstrates that time perception is subject to strong illusory distortion. In two experiments, we investigated whether the subjective speed of temporal perception is dependent on our visual environment. By presenting human observers with speed-altered movies of a crowded street scene, we modulated performance on subsequent production of "20s" elapsed intervals. Our results indicate that one's visual environment significantly contributes to calibrating our sense of time, independently of any modulation of arousal. This plasticity generates an assay for the integrity of our sense of time and its rehabilitation in clinical pathologies.

Marginal adaptation in vitro and clinical outcome of Class V restorations

OBJECTIVES: We examined the correlation between the quantitative margin analysis of two laboratory test methods (Berlin, Zurich) and the clinical outcome in Class V restorations. METHODS: Prospective clinical studies with an observation period of at least 18 months were searched in the literature, for which laboratory data were also available. The clinical outcome variables were retention loss, marginal discoloration, detectable margins and secondary caries. Forty-four clinical studies matched the inclusion criteria, including 34 adhesive systems for which laboratory data were also present. For both laboratory test methods and the clinical studies, an index was formulated to better compare the in vitro and in vivo results. Linear mixed models which included a random study effect were calculated. As most clinical data were available for 12 and 24 months, the main analysis was restricted to these recall intervals. RESULTS: The comparative analysis revealed a weak correlation between the clinical index and both in vitro indices. The correlation was statistically significant for the Berlin method but not for the Zurich method and only present if studies were compared which used the same composite in the in vitro and in vivo study. When defining specific cut-off values, the prognosis for the good clinical performance of an adhesive system based on in vitro results was 78% (Berlin) or 100% (Zurich). For poor performance it was 67% and 60%, respectively. No correlation was found between both in vitro methods. SIGNIFICANCE: The surrogate parameter "marginal adaptation" of restorations placed in extracted teeth has a mediocre value to predict the clinical performance of an adhesive system in cervical cavities. The composite is an important factor for a successful prediction. The comparison between in vitro/in vivo is sometimes hampered by the great variability of clinical results on the same adhesive system.

Cost evaluation of cardiac magnetic resonance imaging versus coronary angiography for the work-up of coronary artery disease

Background: CMR has recently emerged as a robust and reliable technique to assess coronary artery disease (CAD). A negative perfusion CMR test predicts low event rates of 0.3-0.5%/year. Invasive coronary angiography (CA) remains the "gold standard" for the evaluation of CAD in many countries.Objective: Assessing the costs of the two strategies in the European CMR registry for the work-up of known or suspected CAD from a health care payer perspective. Strategy 1) a CA to all patients or 2) a CA only to patients who are diagnosed positive for ischemia in a prior CMR.Method and results: Using data of the European CMR registry (20 hospitals, 11'040 consecutive patients) we calculated the proportion of patients who were diagnosed positive (20.6%), uncertain (6.5%), and negative (72.9%) after the CMR test in patients with known or suspected CAD (n=2'717). No other medical test was performed to patients who were negative for ischemia. Positive diagnosed patients had a coronary angiography. Those with uncertain diagnosis had additional tests (84.7%: stress echocardiography, 13.1%: CCT, 2.3% SPECT), these costs were added to the CMR strategy costs. Information from costs for tests in Germany and Switzerland were used. A sensibility analysis was performed for inpatient CA. For costs see figure. Results - costs.Discussion: The CMR strategy costs less than the CA strategy for the health insurance systems both, in Germany and Switzerland. While lower in costs, the CMR strategy is a non-invasive one, does not expose to radiation, and yields additional information on cardiac function, viability, valves, and great vessels. Developing the use of CMR instead of CA might imply some reduction in costs together with superior patient safety and comfort, and a better utilization of resources at the hospital level. Document introduit le : 01.12.2011

Maturation of marginal zone and follicular B cells requires B cell activating factor of the tumor necrosis factor family and is independent of B cell maturation antigen.

B cells undergo a complex series of maturation and selection steps in the bone marrow and spleen during differentiation into mature immune effector cells. The tumor necrosis factor (TNF) family member B cell activating factor of the TNF family (BAFF) (BLyS/TALL-1) plays an important role in B cell homeostasis. BAFF and its close homologue a proliferation-inducing ligand (APRIL) have both been shown to interact with at least two receptors, B cell maturation antigen (BCMA) and transmembrane activator and cyclophilin ligand interactor (TACI), however their relative contribution in transducing BAFF signals in vivo remains unclear. To functionally inactivate both BAFF and APRIL, mice transgenic for a soluble form of TACI were generated. They display a developmental block of B cell maturation in the periphery, leading to a severe depletion of marginal zone and follicular B2 B cells, but not of peritoneal B1 B cells. In contrast, mice transgenic for a soluble form of BCMA, which binds APRIL, have no detectable B cell phenotype. This demonstrates a crucial role for BAFF in B cell maturation and strongly suggests that it signals via a BCMA-independent pathway and in an APRIL-dispensable way.

The Complementarity between segment disclosure and earnings quality, and its effect on cost of capital

We investigate the role of earnings quality in determining the levels of segment disclosure, and whether and how better quality earnings and segment disclosure influences cost of capital. Using a large US sample for the period 2001-2006, we find a positive relation between earnings quality and levels of segment disclosures. We also find that firms providing better quality segment information, contingent upon good earnings quality, enjoy lower cost of capital. We base our empirical tests on a self created index of segment disclosure. Our results contribute to a better understanding of (1) the incentives for providing segment disclosures, and (2) how accounting quality (quality of segment information and earnings quality) is related to the cost of capital.

Encoding dysfunctions in a dynamic-static paradigm for visuospatial working memory in first-episode psychosis patients: a 2-year follow-up study.

Aim: To investigate static and dynamic visuospatial working memory (VSWM) processes in first-episode psychosis (FEP) patients and explore the validity of such measures as specific trait markers of schizophrenia. Methods: Twenty FEP patients and 20 age-, sex-, laterality- and education-matched controls carried out a dynamic and static VSWM paradigm. At 2-year follow up 13 patients met Diagnostic and Statistical Manual (of Mental Health Disorders) - Fourth Edition (DSM-IV) criteria for schizophrenia, 1 for bipolar disorder, 1 for brief psychotic episode and 5 for schizotypal personality disorder. Results: Compared with controls, the 20 FEP patients showed severe impairment in the dynamic VSWM condition but much less impairment in the static condition. No specific bias in stimulus selection was detected in the two tasks. Two-year follow-up evaluations suggested poorer baseline scores on the dynamic task clearly differentiated the 13 FEP patients who developed schizophrenia from the seven who did not. Conclusions: Results suggest deficits in VSWM in FEP patients. Specific exploratory analyses further suggest that deficit in monitoring-manipulation VSWM processes, especially involved in our dynamic VSWM task, can be a reliable marker of schizophrenia.