Evidence-based Economic Policy - Three Essays in Applied Microeconometrics

Over thirty years ago, Leamer (1983) - among many others - expressed doubts about the quality and usefulness of empirical analyses for the economic profession by stating that "hardly anyone takes data analyses seriously. Or perhaps more accurately, hardly anyone takes anyone else's data analyses seriously" (p.37). Improvements in data quality, more robust estimation methods and the evolution of better research designs seem to make that assertion no longer justifiable (see Angrist and Pischke (2010) for a recent response to Leamer's essay). The economic profes- sion and policy makers alike often rely on empirical evidence as a means to investigate policy relevant questions. The approach of using scientifically rigorous and systematic evidence to identify policies and programs that are capable of improving policy-relevant outcomes is known under the increasingly popular notion of evidence-based policy. Evidence-based economic policy often relies on randomized or quasi-natural experiments in order to identify causal effects of policies. These can require relatively strong assumptions or raise concerns of external validity. In the context of this thesis, potential concerns are for example endogeneity of policy reforms with respect to the business cycle in the first chapter, the trade-off between precision and bias in the regression-discontinuity setting in chapter 2 or non-representativeness of the sample due to self-selection in chapter 3. While the identification strategies are very useful to gain insights into the causal effects of specific policy questions, transforming the evidence into concrete policy conclusions can be challenging. Policy develop- ment should therefore rely on the systematic evidence of a whole body of research on a specific policy question rather than on a single analysis. In this sense, this thesis cannot and should not be viewed as a comprehensive analysis of specific policy issues but rather as a first step towards a better understanding of certain aspects of a policy question. The thesis applies new and innovative identification strategies to policy-relevant and topical questions in the fields of labor economics and behavioral environmental economics. Each chapter relies on a different identification strategy. In the first chapter, we employ a difference- in-differences approach to exploit the quasi-experimental change in the entitlement of the max- imum unemployment benefit duration to identify the medium-run effects of reduced benefit durations on post-unemployment outcomes. Shortening benefit duration carries a double- dividend: It generates fiscal benefits without deteriorating the quality of job-matches. On the contrary, shortened benefit durations improve medium-run earnings and employment possibly through containing the negative effects of skill depreciation or stigmatization. While the first chapter provides only indirect evidence on the underlying behavioral channels, in the second chapter I develop a novel approach that allows to learn about the relative impor- tance of the two key margins of job search - reservation wage choice and search effort. In the framework of a standard non-stationary job search model, I show how the exit rate from un- employment can be decomposed in a way that is informative on reservation wage movements over the unemployment spell. The empirical analysis relies on a sharp discontinuity in unem- ployment benefit entitlement, which can be exploited in a regression-discontinuity approach to identify the effects of extended benefit durations on unemployment and survivor functions. I find evidence that calls for an important role of reservation wage choices for job search be- havior. This can have direct implications for the optimal design of unemployment insurance policies. The third chapter - while thematically detached from the other chapters - addresses one of the major policy challenges of the 21st century: climate change and resource consumption. Many governments have recently put energy efficiency on top of their agendas. While pricing instru- ments aimed at regulating the energy demand have often been found to be short-lived and difficult to enforce politically, the focus of energy conservation programs has shifted towards behavioral approaches - such as provision of information or social norm feedback. The third chapter describes a randomized controlled field experiment in which we discuss the effective- ness of different types of feedback on residential electricity consumption. We find that detailed and real-time feedback caused persistent electricity reductions on the order of 3 to 5 % of daily electricity consumption. Also social norm information can generate substantial electricity sav- ings when designed appropriately. The findings suggest that behavioral approaches constitute effective and relatively cheap way of improving residential energy-efficiency.

Questions and Answers About Workers’ Compensation Law For Injured Workers, July 1, 2004 – June 30, 2005

This brochure answers questions injured workers commonly ask about workers’ compensation. You may check Iowa Code chapters 85 through 87 and 17A, as well as Iowa Administrative Code chapter 876, for detailed information. References to Iowa Code sections and Iowa Administrative Rules appear in parentheses.

Questions and Answers About Workers’ Compensation Law For Injured Workers, July 1, 2001 – June 30, 2002

This brochure answers questions injured workers commonly ask about workers’ compensation. You may check Iowa Code chapters 85 through 87 and 17A, as well as Iowa Administrative Code chapter 876, for detailed information. References to Iowa Code sections and Iowa Administrative Rules appear in parentheses.

Questions and Answers About Workers’ Compensation Law For Injured Workers, July 1, 2002 – June 30, 2003

This brochure answers questions injured workers commonly ask about workers’ compensation. You may check Iowa Code chapters 85 through 87 and 17A, as well as Iowa Administrative Code chapter 876, for detailed information. References to Iowa Code sections and Iowa Administrative Rules appear in parentheses.

Economic Impact of Closures on Displaced Workers, May 2002

Iowa Workforce Development research conducted in 2001 on Iowa workers displaced by layoffs indicated that post-layoff wages remained at or above pre-layoff levels. During the layoff quarters selected for analysis – first, second, and third quarters of 1998 – there were twenty-one layoff events, none of which were closures. The research at that time did not discriminate between closures or permanent layoffs for which no recall was expected and those layoff events expected to recall workers. The post/pre ratios1 of the affected workers in manufacturing were at or above 100%, while remaining slightly below the universe pre/post ratios for the same time period.

The impact of labour market status on second and higher-order births. A comparative study of Denmark, Italy, Spain and United Kingdom

This paper investigates the effects of women‘s labour force participation on fertility, as well as the effects of the combined labour force participation of both members of a couple. It specifically focuses on such dimensions as unemployment, earnings, temporary contracts and part-time jobs, and it shows that their effects differ in accordance with national institutions and labour market regulations. Event-history methods and a longitudinal sample of the European Community Household Panel are used in the analyses, concerning the years 1993-2000. The results show that labour market insecurity of one or both members of a couple has a particularly strong impact in reducing birth rates in the Southern European countries studied. The more conventional model of men’s employment combined with housewifery has a positive impact on second or higher order births in United Kingdom, Spain and Italy, while in Denmark the effect is the opposite. These differences are consistent with different national models of combining parental responsibilities and participation by gender across the life course.

The varieties of regional change

Many metropolitan areas have experienced extreme boom-bust cycles over the past century. Some places, like Detroit, grew enormously as industrial powerhouses and then declined, while other older cities, like Boston, seem quite resilient. Education does a reasonable job of explaining urban resilience. In this paper, we present a simple model where education increases the level of entrepreneurship. In this model, human capital spillovers occur at the city level because skilled workers produce more product varieties and thereby increase labor demand. We decompose empirically the causes of the connection between skills and urban success and find that skills are associated with growth in productivity or entrepreneurship, not with growth in quality of life, at least outside of the West. We also find that skills seem to have depressed housing supply growth in the West, but not in other regions, which supports the view that educated residents in that region have fought for tougher land-use controls. We also present evidence that skills have had a disproportionately large impact on unemployment during the current recession.

The Labor Market Effects of Technology Shocks

We analyze the labor market effects of neutral and investment-specific technology shocks along the intensive margin (hours worked) and the extensive margin (unemployment). We characterize the dynamic response of unemployment in terms of the job separation and the job finding rate. Labor market adjustments occur along the extensive margin in response to neutral shocks, along the intensive margin in response to investment specific shocks. The job separation rate accounts for a major portion of the impact response of unemployment. Neutral shocks prompt a contemporaneous increase in unemployment because of a sharp rise in the separation rate. This is prolonged by a persistent fall in the job finding rate. Investment specific shocks rise employment and hours worked. Neutral shocks explain a substantial portion of the volatility of unemployment and output; investment specific shocks mainly explain hours worked volatility. This suggests that neutral progress is consistent with Schumpeterian creative destruction, while investment-specific progress operates as in a neoclassical growth model.

Labour Market Formation Patterns in Nineteenth Century Catalonia

In this paper we portray the features of the Catalan textiles labour market in a period of technological change. Supply and demand for labour as well as a gendered view of living standards are presented. A first set of results is that labour supply adjusts to changes in labour demand trough the spread of new demographic attitudes. In this respect we imply that labour economic agents (or labour population) were able to modify the economic condition of their children. A second set of results refers to living standards and income distribution inequality. In this respect we see that unemployment and protectionism were the main sources breeding income inequality. A third set of results deals with the extreme labour market segmentation according to gender. Since women s real wages did not obey to an economic rationale we conclude that women were outside the labour market.

Formação Profissional e Empreendedorismo: O Caso do Centro de Juventude de S. Vicente

À medida que oportunidades de emprego para toda a vida escasseiam, altas taxas de desemprego têm despertado o interesse por empreendedorismo. A salvação passa a ser a empregabilidade, sendo a educação empreendedora apontada como uma das áreas chave para fazer com que todos descubram potencialidades inovadoras e criativas despertando comportamentos empreendedores. A inserção dos jovens no mercado de trabalho é neste momento um dos maiores problemas da ilha de São Vicente com 23,3% de desempregados numa população maioritariamente jovem (65,7%) segundo INE (Instituto Nacional de Estatística). É neste contexto marcado por instabilidade e incerteza, que o Centro de Juventude de São Vicente tem vindo a promover a formação profissional oferecendo cursos de curta duração visando a inserção sócio económica de jovens carenciados e em situação de risco. Com base num suporte teórico que revela a possibilidade de desenvolver o espírito empreendedor através do ensino, optou-se pela metodologia de estudo de caso para analisar de que forma o Centro de Juventude de São Vicente contribui na formação para a empregabilidade e/ou no despertar do espírito empreendedor. Os resultados revelam que o Centro está dando os primeiros passos nesse sentido e que terá um papel importante no estímulo e incentivo ao trabalho por conta própria através da formação profissional, desde que em estreita articulação com o IEFP (Instituto do Emprego e Formação Profissional) e o mercado de trabalho. Visando uma mudança de mentalidade tem propiciado aos jovens um contexto de estímulo à iniciativa sobretudo através do apoio psicológico e na busca de financiamento. While opportunities for lifetime jobs are decreasing, high unemployment rates have aroused the interest in entrepreneurship. Employability will be the solution, being entrepreneurial education pointed out as one of the key factors in finding out innovative and creative potentialities as well as in stimulating entrepreneurial behaviours. Inserting young people in the labour market is, at present, one of the biggest problems in S.Vicente, an island with 23,3% of unemployed in a population mostly constituted by young people (65,7%), according to INE (National Institute of Statistics). In this context characterised by instability and uncertainty, the Youth Centre in S.Vicente has been promoting professional training through short courses aimed at socioeconomic insertion of young people in vulnerable and risky situations. Based on a theoretical support which points out the possibility of developing entrepreneurial spirit through education, the case study methodology was selected in order to analyse how the Youth Centre contributes through its training courses to employability and/or entrepreneurial spirit. The results obtained indicate that the Centre is taking its first steps in this direction and will play an important role in encouraging self-employment, through professional training. This has to be carried out in close relationship with both IEFP (Institute of Employment and Professional Training) and the labour market. With a view to changing mentalities, the Centre has been providing young people with a context capable of stimulating initiative, especially by supplying psychological support and helping them find financing sources.

A importância do sector microcrédito e o perfil do microempresário: Ilha de Santo Antão Cabo Verde

As microempresas desempenham um papel fundamental na promoção do emprego, na inovação, na criação de rendimentos e no desenvolvimento económico e social. Para os países em vias de desenvolvimento, crê-se que a dinamização das microempresas pode ser um instrumento privilegiado de promoção e combate à pobreza, na medida em que esta poderá ser a via para incentivar as camadas mais pobres das populações rurais e urbanas a criarem os seus próprios negócios e a providenciarem os seus próprios rendimentos. A criação e o crescimento das microempresas estão, todavia, condicionados por vários constrangimentos. A inexistência de capital inicial (Start-Up Capital) é apontada na literatura financeira como uma das mais relevantes. O recurso ao capital externo, como fonte de financiamento, dependerá, por sua vez, de vários factores. O presente estudo foi realizado em Santo Antão, a ilha mais a norte e a mais montanhosa do Arquipélago de Cabo Verde. O sector micro crédito chama atenção pelo facto de ser um instrumento de importância primordial para Cabo Verde e, particularmente, para a ilha de Santo Antão que possui uma estrutura económica e social muito vulnerável o que nos leva a compreender melhor, o funcionamento das microempresas, instaladas nos três municípios da Ilha (Paul, Ribeira Grande e Porto Novo). Ao longo do estudo definimos o perfil sócio económico do micro empresário Santantonense, com o objectivo de compreender e quantificar o contributo do sector para o desenvolvimento empresarial da ilha, sem esquecer os constrangimentos e dificuldades que se colocam aos micros empresários na procura de financiamento. O processo de recolha de informação foi efectuado com recurso a pesquisas de campo, a partir da elaboração e aplicação de entrevistas de uma forma semi-estruturada, no sentido de identificar as principais características/perfil do empresário. Os dados recolhidos pelas entrevistas têm por base uma apreciação crítica da gestão para melhor compreender e comparar as fragilidades existentes e analisar a capacidade de sucesso dos micros empresários. A configuração da actividade económica foi feita com base na análise quantitativa e qualitativa, dos dados obtidos na aplicação dos questionários. De igual modo, analisamos e comparamos os casos de sucesso e insucesso nas microempresas em estudo, casos de sucesso no que diz respeito aos benefícios de micro créditos para a redução da pobreza e do desemprego, de criação do auto-emprego, e da formação/informação aos micros empresários santantonenses. Nos casos de insucesso analisamos as causas que estiveram na sua origem assim como as consequências daí advenientes. Uma das constatações do estudo, como se verá pela análise dos dados, é que o micro empresário Santantonense, possui um baixo nível de escolaridade e que na sua maioria são mulheres. Um outro resultado evidenciado pelo estudo, é que há uma necessidade da política pública de desenvolvimento no sentido de definição de incentivos à criação e à promoção de micro negócios, atendendo às características demográficas e às necessidades específicas dos beneficiários. Micro enterprises perform a fundamental component in promoting employment, innovation, and earnings-generation and in socio-economic development. For countries en route to development, the belief is that the dynamic engine of the micro enterprises could be a privileged instrument to promote in the battle against poverty, in the hope that this could be the venue to incentivize the poorest of the rural and urban populations to create their own businesses and forecast their own earnings. The creation and the growth of micro enterprises is, however, conditional upon various constraints. The inexistence of initial capital is cited in financial literature as one of the more important. To resort to external capital as a financing source, is itself dependent on various factors. The current study was conducted in Santo Antão, the most northern and mountainous island in the Archipelago of Cape Verde. The micro credit´s sector calls attention to the fact that it is an essential instrument in Cape Verde, particularly in the island of Santo Antão which has an economic and social structure extremely vulnerable, leading us to a better understanding of how micro enterprises operate in the three municipalities of the Island (Paul, Ribeira Grande and Porto Novo). During the course of the study we defined the socio-economic character of the micro entrepreneur Santantonense, with the goal of understanding and quantifying the sector´s contribution to the Island´s entrepreneurial development, keeping in mind the contraints and difficulties that confront the entrepreneurs when seeking financing. The process for gathering the information was performed through field research, beginning with elaboration and application of interviews, designed to identify the entrepreneur´s major characteristics and the importance of micro credit for the island of Santo Antão. The data gathered through the interviews have un underlying basic and critic appreciation of management for a better understanding and comparing the existing fragilities and for analyzing the micro entrepreneurs´ capacity to succeed. The configuration of economic activities was designed based on quantitative and qualitative analysis from data obtained from the questionnaires. Likewise, we analyzed and compared the success and non-success cases of the micro enterprises in the study, success cases with respect to the benefits of micro credit in reducing poverty and unemployment, creation of self-employment, and the education/information for the micro entrepreneurs of Santo Antão. In the non-success cases we analyzed the original causes as well as the impending consequences. One of the study´s contentions, as the data analysis shows, is that micro entrepreneur of Santo Antão has a low level of education with the majority of them being women. In addition the study shows that there is a need for a public discourse in terms of defining and developing incentives for creating and promoting micro businesses given the demographic characteristics and the specific necessities of the beneficiaries.

Pouvoir discrétionnaire et redevabilité de la bureaucratie de guichet : les taxateurs d'une caisse de chômage comme acteurs de mise en oeuvre

Résumé en français La thèse de doctorat porte, de manière générale, sur le rôle des acteurs administratifs dans la mise en oeuvre de l'action publique. En particulier, dans le contexte de l'implémentation de la politique suisse d'assurance-chômage, la recherche se focalise sur l'étude de la bureaucratie de guichet, à savoir un type spécifique d'administrations et d'agents publics situés aux premières lignes de l'action étatique et qui sont en contact direct et quotidien avec les usagers. La thèse a pour objectif principal d'obtenir une compréhension détaillée des impacts concrets dont sont porteurs deux types de réformes majeures du secteur public : les réformes de Nouvelle Gestion Publique (NGP) et les nouvelles technologies informatiques. Le questionnement central de la recherche consiste en une étude approfondie des effets de ces réformes sur les bureaucraties de guichet, et en particulier sur deux aspects centraux les concernant : d'une part, le niveau de pouvoir discrétionnaire que les agents publics de base disposent dans l'application de la loi fédérale sur l'assurance-chômage, autrement dit leur marge de manoeuvre ; d'autre part, les manières au travers desquelles ces mêmes agents sont appelés à rendre des comptes quant à leurs actions et leurs décisions, à savoir l'enjeu plus large de la redevabilité publique des acteurs administratifs. Ces enjeux ont été analysés au niveau empirique dans le contexte organisationnel d'une caisse publique cantonale de chômage ayant expérimenté les réformes évoquées ci-dessus. L'organisation choisie a été investiguée au travers d'une étude de cas ethnographique approfondie (observation directe du travail quotidien des agents, entretiens semi-directifs, analyse de documents) pendant une période de six mois environ entre 2008 et 2009. L'analyse empirique fournit quatre résultats : a) de manière générale, les taxateurs de la caisse de chômage disposent d'un faible niveau de pouvoir discrétionnaire ; b) le degré de pouvoir discrétionnaire varie selon le type de tâche ; c) les agents sur le terrain rendent des comptes auprès d'une multiplicité d'acteurs, sur une variété d'aspects de leur travail et au travers de différents mécanismes de contrôle ; d) les outils de NGP et les nouvelles technologies informatiques ont peu d'impact sur l'étendue du pouvoir discrétionnaire des agents mais contribuent à influencer le type de redevabilité publique pratiquée à ce niveau. Summary in English This PhD dissertation deals with the role of public administration in policy implementation. In the Swiss context of unemployment insurance policy, it focuses on street-level bureaucracy, a specific type of public organisations and agents located at the frontline of public action, that is to say low-level civil servants who are in direct, daily and face-to-face contact with citizens. The dissertation aims at a deep understanding of what are the concrete impacts of two main important changes touching public sector organizations : New Public Management reforms (NPM) and Information and Communication technologies (ICT). The main research question consists in assessing the impacts of those reforms on two central issues regarding street-level bureaucrats : on the one hand, the effective degree of discretion frontline agents do have in implementing the federal law on unemployment insurance ; on the other hand, the ways through which these bureaucrats are held accountable about their action and decisions, i.e. accountability regimes at the street-level. These issues have been empirically addressed in the organisational context of a cantonal Unemployment Insurance Funds having experienced the above mentioned reforms. The organisation has been investigated through an in-depth ethnographic case-study (direct observation of daily work, semi-structured interwiews, documentary analysis) in 2008 and 2009 for approximately six months. The empirical analysis indicates that a) in general, street-level agents do exert low degree of policy discretion; b) the level of discretion is variable from one specific task to another ; c) frontline workers are held accountable to many actors, on various aspects of their work and through different mechanisms of control ; d) NPM and ICT instruments have few impact on the issue of policy discretion but more on the type of street-level accountability which is concretely practised at this level.

Intimate partner violence against pregnant women: the environment according to Levine's nursing theory

Abstract OBJECTIVE Analyzing the elements that compose the environment of pregnant women who have experienced intimate partner violence in the light of Levine's Nursing Theory. METHOD A qualitative, descriptive study conducted from September to January 2012, with nine pregnant women in a Municipal Health Center in Rio de Janeiro. The interviews were semi-structured and individual. The theoretical framework was based on Levine's Nursing Theory. RESULTS Thematic analysis evidenced the elements that composed the external environment, such as violence perpetrated by intimate partners before and during pregnancy, violence in childhood and adolescence, alcohol consumption and drug use by the partner, unemployment, low education and economic dependency, which affected health and posed risks to the pregnancy. CONCLUSION Violence perpetrated by an intimate partner was the main external factor that influenced the internal environment with repercussions on health. This theory represents a tool in nursing care which will aid in detecting cases and the fight against violence.

From severance pay to self-insurance: Effects of severance payments savings accounts in Colombia

In 1990 Colombia replaced its traditional system of severance paymentswith a new system of severance payments savings accounts (SPSAs). Althoughseverance payments often are justified on the grounds that they provideinsurance against earnings loss, they also increase costs for employersand distort employment decisions. The impact of severance payments dependslargely on how much of the costs to employers can be shifted to workers.The theoretical analysis in this paper shows that, in contrast to atraditional system of severance payments, the system of SPSAs facilitatesthe shifting of severance payments costs to workers in the form of lowerwages. Empirical results using the Colombian National Household Surveysindicate that the introduction of SPSAs shifted around 80% of the totalseverance payments contributions to wages and had a positive effect onweekly hours. Results using the 1997 Colombian Living Standards MeasurementSurvey suggest that, although SPSAs in part replaced employer insurancewith self-insurance, SPSAs continue to play a consumption smoothing rolefor the non-employed.

Wage rigidity and job creation

Recent research in macroeconomics emphasizes the role of wage rigidity in accounting for the volatility of unemployment fluctuations. We use worker-level datafrom the CPS to measure the sensitivity of wages of newly hired workers to changesin aggregate labor market conditions. The wage of new hires, unlike the aggregatewage, is volatile and responds almost one-to-one to changes in labor productivity.We conclude that there is little evidence for wage stickiness in the data. We alsoshow, however, that a little wage rigidity goes a long way in amplifying the responseof job creation to productivity shocks.