Development of a Bayesian Joint Logistic Model to Better Study the Association between Haplotypes and Disease

In 2011, there will be an estimated 1,596,670 new cancer cases and 571,950 cancer-related deaths in the US. With the ever-increasing applications of cancer genetics in epidemiology, there is great potential to identify genetic risk factors that would help identify individuals with increased genetic susceptibility to cancer, which could be used to develop interventions or targeted therapies that could hopefully reduce cancer risk and mortality. In this dissertation, I propose to develop a new statistical method to evaluate the role of haplotypes in cancer susceptibility and development. This model will be flexible enough to handle not only haplotypes of any size, but also a variety of covariates. I will then apply this method to three cancer-related data sets (Hodgkin Disease, Glioma, and Lung Cancer). I hypothesize that there is substantial improvement in the estimation of association between haplotypes and disease, with the use of a Bayesian mathematical method to infer haplotypes that uses prior information from known genetics sources. Analysis based on haplotypes using information from publically available genetic sources generally show increased odds ratios and smaller p-values in both the Hodgkin, Glioma, and Lung data sets. For instance, the Bayesian Joint Logistic Model (BJLM) inferred haplotype TC had a substantially higher estimated effect size (OR=12.16, 95% CI = 2.47-90.1 vs. 9.24, 95% CI = 1.81-47.2) and more significant p-value (0.00044 vs. 0.008) for Hodgkin Disease compared to a traditional logistic regression approach. Also, the effect sizes of haplotypes modeled with recessive genetic effects were higher (and had more significant p-values) when analyzed with the BJLM. Full genetic models with haplotype information developed with the BJLM resulted in significantly higher discriminatory power and a significantly higher Net Reclassification Index compared to those developed with haplo.stats for lung cancer. Future analysis for this work could be to incorporate the 1000 Genomes project, which offers a larger selection of SNPs can be incorporated into the information from known genetic sources as well. Other future analysis include testing non-binary outcomes, like the levels of biomarkers that are present in lung cancer (NNK), and extending this analysis to full GWAS studies.

A study of the relationship between physical activity and cardiovascular fitness and coronary heart disease risk factors in female adolescents

The association of measures of physical activity with coronary heart disease (CHD) risk factors in children, especially those for atherosclerosis, is unknown. The purpose of this study was to determine the association of physical activity and cardiovascular fitness with blood lipids and lipoproteins in pre-adolescent and adolescent girls.^ The study population was comprised of 131 girls aged 9 to 16 years who participated in the Children's Nutrition Research Center's Adolescent Study. The dependent variables, blood lipids and lipoproteins, were measured by standard techniques. The independent variables were physical activity measured as the difference between total energy expenditure (TEE) and basal metabolic rate (BMR), and cardiovascular fitness, VO$\rm\sb{2max}$(ml/min/kg). TEE was measured by the doubly-labeled water (DLW) method, and BMR by whole-room calorimetry. Cardiovascular fitness, VO$\rm\sb{2max}$(ml/min/kg), was measured on a motorized treadmill. The potential confounding variables were sexual maturation (Tanner breast stage), ethnic group, body fat percent, and dietary variables. A systematic strategy for data analysis was used to isolate the effects of physical activity and cardiovascular fitness on blood lipids, beginning with assessment of confounding and interaction. Next, from regression models predicting each blood lipid and controlling for covariables, hypotheses were evaluated by the direction and value of the coefficients for physical activity and cardiovascular fitness.^ The main result was that cardiovascular fitness appeared to be more strongly associated with blood lipids than physical activity. An interaction between cardiovascular fitness and sexual maturation indicated that the effect of cardiovascular fitness on most blood lipids was dependent on the stage of sexual maturation.^ A difference of 760 kcal/d physical activity (which represents the difference between the 25th and 75th percentile of physical activity) was associated with negligible differences in blood lipids. In contrast, a difference in 10 ml/min/kg of VO$\rm\sb{2max}$ or cardiovascular fitness (which represents the difference between the 25th and 75th percentile in cardiovascular fitness) in the early stages of sexual maturation was associated with an average positive difference of 15 mg/100 ml ApoA-1 and 10 mg/100 ml HDL-C. ^

Osteopontin (OPN) and neoplastic disease: Circulating levels and tissue distribution

OPN is a secreted phosphate containing protein which is expressed by osteoblasts and a variety of other cells in vivo. Data from in vitro studies has accumulated which relates OPN to cellular transformation. We hypothesize that OPN expression is associated with neoplastic disease in humans as suggested by cell culture models. The overall objective of the current study was to determine the tissue distribution of OPN in human malignancy and to determine whether or not a correlation exists between OPN serum levels and malignancy. At the inception of this project, no study had been made demonstrating the relevance of OPN expression with naturally occurring neoplastic disease in humans. To date, few studies have reported OPN distribution in human neoplasia and are limited by either the number of specimens analyzed or the technique used in analysis. In this dissertation study, OPN was purified from human milk and $\alpha$-OPN antiserum developed and characterized. Following antibody development, the distribution and prevalence of OPN in human oral squamous cell carcinoma and human prostate carcinoma was evaluated using immunohistochemical localization. OPN immunolocalization was found in a high percentage of oral epithelial dysplasia and oral squamous cell carcinoma in humans. One oral squamous cell carcinoma cells line, UMSCC-1, was found to express OPN mRNA using Northern blotting. OPN localized to a high percentage of primary prostate adenocarcinomas. OPN localized to 52% of androgen dependent cases and 100% of androgen independent cases. Androgen dependent cell lines such as LNCap and NbE showed minimal OPN mRNA expression while the androgen independent lines C4-2 and PC3 produced ample OPN mRNA. An OPN sandwich assay was developed and used to determine the serum level of OPN in normal males, patients with BPH (benign prostate hypertrophy), and patients with prostate carcinoma. No statistically significant difference was found in OPN serum levels among the three groups. However, a trend of increasing OPN in the serum was noted in patients with BPH and prostate cancer. ^

The metabolomic window into hepatobiliary disease

The emergent discipline of metabolomics has attracted considerable research effort in hepatology. Here we review the metabolomic data for non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), cholangiocarcinoma (CCA), alcoholic liver disease (ALD), hepatitis B and C, cholecystitis, cholestasis, liver transplantation, and acute hepatotoxicity in animal models. A metabolomic window has permitted a view into the changing biochemistry occurring in the transitional phases between a healthy liver and hepatocellular carcinoma or cholangiocarcinoma. Whether provoked by obesity and diabetes, alcohol use or oncogenic viruses, the liver develops a core metabolomic phenotype (CMP) that involves dysregulation of bile acid and phospholipid homeostasis. The CMP commences at the transition between the healthy liver (Phase 0) and NAFLD/NASH, ALD or viral hepatitis (Phase 1). This CMP is maintained in the presence or absence of cirrhosis (Phase 2) and whether or not either HCC or CCA (Phase 3) develops. Inflammatory signalling in the liver triggers the appearance of the CMP. Many other metabolomic markers distinguish between Phases 0, 1, 2 and 3. A metabolic remodelling in HCC has been described but metabolomic data from all four Phases demonstrate that the Warburg shift from mitochondrial respiration to cytosolic glycolysis foreshadows HCC and may occur as early as Phase 1. The metabolic remodelling also involves an upregulation of fatty acid β-oxidation, also beginning in Phase 1. The storage of triglycerides in fatty liver provides high energy-yielding substrates for Phases 2 and 3 of liver pathology. The metabolomic window into hepatobiliary disease sheds new light on the systems pathology of the liver.

Positive affect moderates the effect of negative affect on cardiovascular disease-related hospitalizations and all-cause mortality after cardiac rehabilitation

BACKGROUND Little is known as to whether negative emotions adversely impact the prognosis of patients who undergo cardiac rehabilitation. We prospectively investigated the predictive value of state negative affect (NA) assessed at discharge from cardiac rehabilitation for prognosis and the moderating role of positive affect (PA) on the effect of NA on outcomes. METHODS A total of 564 cardiac patients (62.49 ± 11.51) completed a comprehensive three-month outpatient cardiac rehabilitation program, filling in the Global Mood Scale (GMS) at discharge. The combined endpoint was cardiovascular disease (CVD)-related hospitalizations plus all-cause mortality at follow-up. Cox regression models estimated the predictive value of NA, as well as the moderating influence of PA on outcomes. Survival models were adjusted for sociodemographic factors, traditional cardiovascular risk factors, and severity of disease. RESULTS During a mean follow-up period of 3.4 years, 71 patients were hospitalized for a CVD-related event and 15 patients died. NA score (range 0-20) was a significant and independent predictor (hazard ratio (HR) 1.091, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.012-1.175; p = 0.023) with a three-point higher level in NA increasing the relative risk by 9.1%. Furthermore, PA interacted significantly with NA (p < 0.001). The relative risk of poor prognosis with NA was increased in patients with low PA (p = 0.012) but remained unchanged in combination with high PA (p = 0.12). CONCLUSION The combination of NA with low PA was particularly predictive of poor prognosis. Whether reduction of NA and increase of PA, particularly in those with high NA, improves outcome needs to be tested.

Evidence of an association between sleep and levodopa-induced dyskinesia in an animal model of Parkinson's disease.

Levodopa-induced dyskinesia (LID) represents a major challenge for clinicians treating patients affected by Parkinson's disease (PD). Although levodopa is the most effective treatment for PD, the remodeling effects induced by disease progression and the pharmacologic treatment itself cause a narrowing of the therapeutic window because of the development of LID. Although animal models of PD provide strong evidence that striatal plasticity underlies the development of dyskinetic movements, the pathogenesis of LID is not entirely understood. In recent years, slow homeostatic adjustment of intrinsic excitability occurring during sleep has been considered fundamental for network stabilization by gradually modifying plasticity thresholds. So far, how sleep affects on LID has not been investigated. Therefore, we measured synaptic downscaling across sleep episodes in a parkinsonian animal model showing dyskinetic movements similar to LID. Our electrophysiological, molecular, and behavioral results are consistent with an impaired synaptic homeostasis during sleep in animals showing dyskinesia. Accordingly, sleep deprivation causes an anticipation and worsening of LID supporting a link between sleep and the development of LID.

The ADO index as a predictor of two-year mortality in general practice-based chronic obstructive pulmonary disease cohorts.

BACKGROUND Existing prediction models for mortality in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients have not yet been validated in primary care, which is where the majority of patients receive care. OBJECTIVES Our aim was to validate the ADO (age, dyspnoea, airflow obstruction) index as a predictor of 2-year mortality in 2 general practice-based COPD cohorts. METHODS Six hundred and forty-six patients with COPD with GOLD (Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease) stages I-IV were enrolled by their general practitioners and followed for 2 years. The ADO regression equation was used to predict a 2-year risk of all-cause mortality in each patient and this risk was compared with the observed 2-year mortality. Discrimination and calibration were assessed as well as the strength of association between the 15-point ADO score and the observed 2-year all-cause mortality. RESULTS Fifty-two (8.1%) patients died during the 2-year follow-up period. Discrimination with the ADO index was excellent with an area under the curve of 0.78 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.71-0.84]. Overall, the predicted and observed risks matched well and visual inspection revealed no important differences between them across 10 risk classes (p = 0.68). The odds ratio for death per point increase according to the ADO index was 1.50 (95% CI 1.31-1.71). CONCLUSIONS The ADO index showed excellent prediction properties in an out-of-population validation carried out in COPD patients from primary care settings.

Plant sterols and plant stanols in the management of dyslipidaemia and prevention of cardiovascular disease

OBJECTIVE This EAS Consensus Panel critically appraised evidence relevant to the benefit to risk relationship of functional foods with added plant sterols and/or plant stanols, as components of a healthy lifestyle, to reduce plasma low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-C) levels, and thereby lower cardiovascular risk. METHODS AND RESULTS Plant sterols/stanols (when taken at 2 g/day) cause significant inhibition of cholesterol absorption and lower LDL-C levels by between 8 and 10%. The relative proportions of cholesterol versus sterol/stanol levels are similar in both plasma and tissue, with levels of sterols/stanols being 500-/10,000-fold lower than those of cholesterol, suggesting they are handled similarly to cholesterol in most cells. Despite possible atherogenicity of marked elevations in circulating levels of plant sterols/stanols, protective effects have been observed in some animal models of atherosclerosis. Higher plasma levels of plant sterols/stanols associated with intakes of 2 g/day in man have not been linked to adverse effects on health in long-term human studies. Importantly, at this dose, plant sterol/stanol-mediated LDL-C lowering is additive to that of statins in dyslipidaemic subjects, equivalent to doubling the dose of statin. The reported 6-9% lowering of plasma triglyceride by 2 g/day in hypertriglyceridaemic patients warrants further evaluation. CONCLUSION Based on LDL-C lowering and the absence of adverse signals, this EAS Consensus Panel concludes that functional foods with plant sterols/stanols may be considered 1) in individuals with high cholesterol levels at intermediate or low global cardiovascular risk who do not qualify for pharmacotherapy, 2) as an adjunct to pharmacologic therapy in high and very high risk patients who fail to achieve LDL-C targets on statins or are statin- intolerant, 3) and in adults and children (>6 years) with familial hypercholesterolaemia, in line with current guidance. However, it must be acknowledged that there are no randomised, controlled clinical trial data with hard end-points to establish clinical benefit from the use of plant sterols or plant stanols.

Functional correction in mouse models of muscular dystrophy using exon-skipping tricyclo-DNA oligomers

Antisense oligonucleotides (AONs) hold promise for therapeutic correction of many genetic diseases via exon skipping, and the first AON-based drugs have entered clinical trials for neuromuscular disorders1, 2. However, despite advances in AON chemistry and design, systemic use of AONs is limited because of poor tissue uptake, and recent clinical reports confirm that sufficient therapeutic efficacy has not yet been achieved. Here we present a new class of AONs made of tricyclo-DNA (tcDNA), which displays unique pharmacological properties and unprecedented uptake by many tissues after systemic administration. We demonstrate these properties in two mouse models of Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD), a neurogenetic disease typically caused by frame-shifting deletions or nonsense mutations in the gene encoding dystrophin3, 4 and characterized by progressive muscle weakness, cardiomyopathy, respiratory failure5 and neurocognitive impairment6. Although current naked AONs do not enter the heart or cross the blood-brain barrier to any substantial extent, we show that systemic delivery of tcDNA-AONs promotes a high degree of rescue of dystrophin expression in skeletal muscles, the heart and, to a lesser extent, the brain. Our results demonstrate for the first time a physiological improvement of cardio-respiratory functions and a correction of behavioral features in DMD model mice. This makes tcDNA-AON chemistry particularly attractive as a potential future therapy for patients with DMD and other neuromuscular disorders or with other diseases that are eligible for exon-skipping approaches requiring whole-body treatment.

Why does placement of persons with Alzheimer's disease into long-term care improve caregivers' well-being? Examination of psychological mediators.

Caregiving for individuals with Alzheimer's disease is associated with chronic stress and elevated symptoms of depression. Placement of the care receiver (CR) into a long-term care setting may be associated with improved caregiver well-being; however, the psychological mechanisms underlying this relationship are unclear. This study evaluated whether decreases in activity restriction and increases in personal mastery mediated placement-related reductions in caregiver depressive symptoms. In a 5-year longitudinal study of 126 spousal Alzheimer's disease caregivers, we used multilevel models to evaluate placement-related changes in depressive symptoms (short form of the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression scale), activity restriction (Activity Restriction Scale), and personal mastery (Pearlin Mastery Scale) in 44 caregivers who placed their spouses into long-term care relative to caregivers who never placed their CRs. The Monte Carlo method for assessing mediation was used to evaluate the significance of the indirect effect of activity restriction and personal mastery on postplacement changes in depressive symptoms. Placement of the CR was associated with significant reductions in depressive symptoms and activity restriction and was also associated with increased personal mastery. Lower activity restriction and higher personal mastery were associated with reduced depressive symptoms. Furthermore, both variables significantly mediated the effect of placement on depressive symptoms. Placement-related reductions in activity restriction and increases in personal mastery are important psychological factors that help explain postplacement reductions in depressive symptoms. The implications for clinical care provided to caregivers are discussed.

Standardised animal models of host microbial mutualism.

An appreciation of the importance of interactions between microbes and multicellular organisms is currently driving research in biology and biomedicine. Many human diseases involve interactions between the host and the microbiota, so investigating the mechanisms involved is important for human health. Although microbial ecology measurements capture considerable diversity of the communities between individuals, this diversity is highly problematic for reproducible experimental animal models that seek to establish the mechanistic basis for interactions within the overall host-microbial superorganism. Conflicting experimental results may be explained away through unknown differences in the microbiota composition between vivaria or between the microenvironment of different isolated cages. In this position paper, we propose standardised criteria for stabilised and defined experimental animal microbiotas to generate reproducible models of human disease that are suitable for systematic experimentation and are reproducible across different institutions.

Prediction of arrhythmic events by Wedensky modulation in patients with coronary artery disease.

PRINCIPLES Prediction of arrhythmic events (AEs) has gained importance with the availability of implantable cardioverter-defibrillators (ICDs), but is still imprecise. This study evaluated the innovative Wedensky modulation index (WMI) as predictor of AEs. METHODS In this prospective cohort, 179 patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) referred for AE risk assessment underwent baseline evaluation including measurement of R-/T-wave WMI (WMI(RT)) and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). Two endpoints were assessed 3 years after the baseline evaluation: sudden cardiac death or appropriate ICD event (EP1) and any cardiac death or appropriate ICD event (EP2). Associations between baseline predictors (WMI(RT) and LVEF) and endpoints were evaluated in regression models. RESULTS Only three patients were lost to follow-up. EP1 and EP2 occurred in 24 and 27 patients, respectively. WMI(RT) (odds ratio [OR] per 1 point increase for EP1 20.1, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.8-221.4, p = 0.014, and for EP2 73.3, 95% CI 6.6-817.7, p <0.001) and LVEF (OR per 1% increase for EP1 0.94, 95% CI 0.90-0.99, p = 0.013, and for EP2 0.93, 95% CI 0.89-0.97, p = 0.002) were significantly associated with both endpoints. In bivariable regression controlled for LVEF, WMI(RT) was independently associated with EP1 (p = 0.047) and EP2 (p = 0.007). The combination of WMI(RT) ≥0.60 and LVEF ≤30% resulted in a positive predictive value of 36% for EP1 and 50% for EP2. CONCLUSIONS WMI(RT) is a significant predictor of AEs independent of LVEF and has potential to improve AE risk prediction in CAD patients. However, WMI(RT) should be evaluated in larger and independent samples before recommendations for clinical routine can be made.

Neuroprotection through excitability and mTOR required in ALS motoneurons to delay disease and extend survival.

Delaying clinical disease onset would greatly reduce neurodegenerative disease burden, but the mechanisms influencing early preclinical progression are poorly understood. Here, we show that in mouse models of familial motoneuron (MN) disease, SOD1 mutants specifically render vulnerable MNs dependent on endogenous neuroprotection signaling involving excitability and mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR). The most vulnerable low-excitability FF MNs already exhibited evidence of pathology and endogenous neuroprotection recruitment early postnatally. Enhancing MN excitability promoted MN neuroprotection and reversed misfolded SOD1 (misfSOD1) accumulation and MN pathology, whereas reducing MN excitability augmented misfSOD1 accumulation and accelerated disease. Inhibiting metabotropic cholinergic signaling onto MNs reduced ER stress, but enhanced misfSOD1 accumulation and prevented mTOR activation in alpha-MNs. Modulating excitability and/or alpha-MN mTOR activity had comparable effects on the progression rates of motor dysfunction, denervation, and death. Therefore, excitability and mTOR are key endogenous neuroprotection mechanisms in motoneurons to counteract clinically important disease progression in ALS.

Impact of cardiovascular risk factors on severity of peripheral artery disease

OBJECTIVE The development of peripheral artery disease is affected by the presence of cardiovascular risk factors. It is unclear, whether particular risk factors are leading to different clinical stages of peripheral artery disease. The aim of this retrospective cross-sectional study was to assess the association of cardiovascular risk factors with the presence of critical limb ischaemia. METHODS The study cohort was derived from a consecutive registry of patients undergoing endovascular therapy in a tertiary referral centre between January 2000 and April 2014. Patients undergoing first-time endovascular intervention for chronic peripheral artery disease of the lower extremities were included. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were used to assess the association of age, sex, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, dyslipidaemia, smoking, and renal insufficiency with critical limb ischaemia vs. intermittent claudication. RESULTS A total of 3406 patients were included in the study (mean age 71.7 ± 11.8 years, 2075 [61%] male). There was a significant association of age (OR 1.67, 95%-CI 1.53-1.82, p < 0.001), male gender (OR 1.23, 95%-CI 1.04-1.47, p = 0.016), diabetes (OR 1.99, 95%-CI 1.68-2.36, p < 0.001) and renal insufficiency (OR 1.62, 95%-CI 1.35-1.96, p < 0.001) with the likelihood of critical limb ischaemia. Smoking was associated with intermittent claudication rather than critical limb ischaemia (OR 0.78, 95%-CI 0.65-0.94, p = 0.010), while hypertension and dyslipidaemia did not show an association with critical limb ischaemia. CONCLUSIONS In peripheral artery disease patients undergoing first-time endovascular treatment, age, male gender, diabetes, and renal insufficiency were the strongest predictors for the presence of critical limb ischaemia.

Minimal residual disease in cancer therapy - Small things make all the difference

Minimal residual disease (MRD) is a major hurdle in the eradication of malignant tumors. Despite the high sensitivity of various cancers to treatment, some residual cancer cells persist and lead to tumor recurrence and treatment failure. Obvious reasons for residual disease include mechanisms of secondary therapy resistance, such as the presence of mutant cells that are insensitive to the drugs, or the presence of cells that become drug resistant due to activation of survival pathways. In addition to such unambiguous resistance modalities, several patients with relapsing tumors do not show refractory disease and respond again when the initial therapy is repeated. These cases cannot be explained by the selection of mutant tumor cells, and the precise mechanisms underlying this clinical drug resistance are ill-defined. In the current review, we put special emphasis on cell-intrinsic and -extrinsic mechanisms that may explain mechanisms of MRD that are independent of secondary therapy resistance. In particular, we show that studying genetically engineered mouse models (GEMMs), which highly resemble the disease in humans, provides a complementary approach to understand MRD. In these animal models, specific mechanisms of secondary resistance can be excluded by targeted genetic modifications. This allows a clear distinction between the selection of cells with stable secondary resistance and mechanisms that result in the survival of residual cells but do not provoke secondary drug resistance. Mechanisms that may explain the latter feature include special biochemical defense properties of cancer stem cells, metabolic peculiarities such as the dependence on autophagy, drug-tolerant persisting cells, intratumoral heterogeneity, secreted factors from the microenvironment, tumor vascularization patterns and immunosurveillance-related factors. We propose in the current review that a common feature of these various mechanisms is cancer cell dormancy. Therefore, dormant cancer cells appear to be an important target in the attempt to eradicate residual cancer cells, and eventually cure patients who repeatedly respond to anticancer therapy but lack complete tumor eradication.