Bidding at sequential first-price auctions with(out) supply uncertainty: a laboratory analysis

We report on a series of experiments that test the effects of an uncertain supply on the formation of bids and prices in sequential first-price auctions with private-independent values and unit-demands. Supply is assumed uncertain when buyers do not know the exact number of units to be sold (i.e., the length of the sequence). Although we observe a non-monotone behavior when supply is certain and an important overbidding, the data qualitatively support our price trend predictions and the risk neutral Nash equilibrium model of bidding for the last stage of a sequence, whether supply is certain or not. Our study shows that behavior in these markets changes significantly with the presence of an uncertain supply, and that it can be explained by assuming that bidders formulate pessimistic beliefs about the occurrence of another stage.

Sensitivity of simulation results to competing SAM updates

Recently there has been a renewed research interest in the properties of non survey updates of input-output tables and social accounting matrices (SAM). Along with the venerable and well known scaling RAS method, several alternative new procedures related to entropy minimization and other metrics have been suggested, tested and used in the literature. Whether these procedures will eventually substitute or merely complement the RAS approach is still an open question without a definite answer. The performance of many of the updating procedures has been tested using some kind of proximity or closeness measure to a reference input-output table or SAM. The first goal of this paper, in contrast, is the proposal of checking the operational performance of updating mechanisms by way of comparing the simulation results that ensue from adopting alternative databases for calibration of a reference applied general equilibrium model. The second goal is to introduce a new updatin! g procedure based on information retrieval principles. This new procedure is then compared as far as performance is concerned to two well-known updating approaches: RAS and cross-entropy. The rationale for the suggested cross validation is that the driving force for having more up to date databases is to be able to conduct more current, and hopefully more credible, policy analyses.

Sequential formation of coalitions through bilateral agreements

We study a sequential protocol of endogenous coalition formation based on a process of bilateral agreements among the players. We apply the game to a Cournot environment with linear demand and constant average costs. We show that the final outcome of any Subgame Perfect Equilibrium of the game is the grand coalition, provided the initial number of firms is high enough and they are sufficiently patient.

Employment and public capital in spain

This paper analyses the e¤ects on employment of increasing the stock of public capital. To this end, we derive a wage equation so that wages are endogenized. This allows us to show that, by means of a higher elasticity of labour demand with respect to wages, a rise in public capital increases employment. The estimation of a structural model for the Spanish private sector tests and con…rms empirically this relationship. The results show that an increase in public capital has a significant and positive direct influence on employment, and indirect e¤ects derived from lower wages and higher economic growth. Finally, we undertake a simulation exercise to assess the long run efects on employment and economic growth of increasing public capital.

Welfare comparisons: sequential procedures for heterogenous populations

Some analysts use sequential dominance criteria, and others use equivalence scales in combination with non-sequential dominance tests, to make welfare comparisons of oint distributions of income and needs. In this paper we present a new sequential procedure hich copes with situations in which sequential dominance fails. We also demonstrate that there commendations deriving from the sequential approach are valid for distributions of equivalent income whatever equivalence scale the analyst might adopt. Thus the paper marries together the sequential and equivalizing approaches, seen as alternatives in much previous literature. All results are specified in forms which allow for demographic differences in the populations being compared.

Ab initio modeling and molecular dynamics simulation of the alpha 1b-adrenergic receptor activation.

This work describes the ab initio procedure employed to build an activation model for the alpha 1b-adrenergic receptor (alpha 1b-AR). The first version of the model was progressively modified and complicated by means of a many-step iterative procedure characterized by the employment of experimental validations of the model in each upgrading step. A combined simulated (molecular dynamics) and experimental mutagenesis approach was used to determine the structural and dynamic features characterizing the inactive and active states of alpha 1b-AR. The latest version of the model has been successfully challenged with respect to its ability to interpret and predict the functional properties of a large number of mutants. The iterative approach employed to describe alpha 1b-AR activation in terms of molecular structure and dynamics allows further complications of the model to allow prediction and interpretation of an ever-increasing number of experimental data.

From e-voting to smart-voting : e-Tools in and for elections and direct democracy in Switzerland

To what extent do and could e-tools contribute to a democracy like Switzerland? This paper puts forward experiences and visions concerning the application of e-tools for the most traditional democratic processes- elections and, of special importance in Switzerland, direct-democratic votes.Having the particular voting behaviour of the Swiss electorate in mind (low voter turnout - especially among the youngest age group, low political knowledge, etc.) we believe that e-tools which provide information in the forefront of elections or direct-democratic votes offer an enormous service to the voter. As soon as e-voting will be possible in Switzerland (as planned by the government), those e-tools for gathering information online will become indispensable and will gain power enormously. Therefore political scientists should not only focus on potential effects of e-voting itself but rather on the combination of (connected)e-tools of the pre-voting and the voting sphere. In the case of Switzerland, we argue in this paper, the offer of VAAs such as smartvote for elections and direct-democratic votes can provide the voter with more balanced and qualitatively higher information and thereby make a valuable contribution to the Swiss democracy.

3-T direct MR arthrography of the wrist: value of finger trap distraction to assess intrinsic ligament and triangular fibrocartilage complex tears.

PURPOSE: To determine the value of applying finger trap distraction during direct MR arthrography of the wrist to assess intrinsic ligament and triangular fibrocartilage complex (TFCC) tears. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Twenty consecutive patients were prospectively investigated by three-compartment wrist MR arthrography. Imaging was performed with 3-T scanners using a three-dimensional isotropic (0.4 mm) T1-weighted gradient-recalled echo sequence, with and without finger trap distraction (4 kg). In a blind and independent fashion, two musculoskeletal radiologists measured the width of the scapholunate (SL), lunotriquetral (LT) and ulna-TFC (UTFC) joint spaces. They evaluated the amount of contrast medium within these spaces using a four-point scale, and assessed SL, LT and TFCC tears, as well as the disruption of Gilula's carpal arcs. RESULTS: With finger trap distraction, both readers found a significant increase in width of the SL space (mean Δ = +0.1mm, p ≤ 0.040), and noticed more contrast medium therein (p ≤ 0.035). In contrast, the differences in width of the LT (mean Δ = +0.1 mm, p ≥ 0.057) and UTFC (mean Δ = 0mm, p ≥ 0.728) spaces, as well as the amount of contrast material within these spaces were not statistically significant (p = 0.607 and ≥ 0.157, respectively). Both readers detected more SL (Δ = +1, p = 0.157) and LT (Δ = +2, p = 0.223) tears, although statistical significance was not reached, and Gilula's carpal arcs were more frequently disrupted during finger trap distraction (Δ = +5, p = 0.025). CONCLUSION: The application of finger trap distraction during direct wrist MR arthrography may enhance both detection and characterisation of SL and LT ligament tears by widening the SL space and increasing the amount of contrast within the SL and LT joint spaces.

Numerical simulation of combined heat transfer phenomena (conduction, convection, and radiation). Application to he optimisation of thermal systems

Thermal systems interchanging heat and mass by conduction, convection, radiation (solar and thermal ) occur in many engineering applications like energy storage by solar collectors, window glazing in buildings, refrigeration of plastic moulds, air handling units etc. Often these thermal systems are composed of various elements for example a building with wall, windows, rooms, etc. It would be of particular interest to have a modular thermal system which is formed by connecting different modules for the elements, flexibility to use and change models for individual elements, add or remove elements without changing the entire code. A numerical approach to handle the heat transfer and fluid flow in such systems helps in saving the full scale experiment time, cost and also aids optimisation of parameters of the system. In subsequent sections are presented a short summary of the work done until now on the orientation of the thesis in the field of numerical methods for heat transfer and fluid flow applications, the work in process and the future work.

Comparing impact and cost-effectiveness of primary prevention strategies for lipid-lowering.

BACKGROUND: Lipid-lowering therapy is costly but effective at reducing coronary heart disease (CHD) risk. OBJECTIVE: To assess the cost-effectiveness and public health impact of Adult Treatment Panel III (ATP III) guidelines and compare with a range of risk- and age-based alternative strategies. DESIGN: The CHD Policy Model, a Markov-type cost-effectiveness model. DATA SOURCES: National surveys (1999 to 2004), vital statistics (2000), the Framingham Heart Study (1948 to 2000), other published data, and a direct survey of statin costs (2008). TARGET POPULATION: U.S. population age 35 to 85 years. Time Horizon: 2010 to 2040. PERSPECTIVE: Health care system. INTERVENTION: Lowering of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol with HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors (statins). OUTCOME MEASURE: Incremental cost-effectiveness. RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS: Full adherence to ATP III primary prevention guidelines would require starting (9.7 million) or intensifying (1.4 million) statin therapy for 11.1 million adults and would prevent 20,000 myocardial infarctions and 10,000 CHD deaths per year at an annual net cost of $3.6 billion ($42,000/QALY) if low-intensity statins cost $2.11 per pill. The ATP III guidelines would be preferred over alternative strategies if society is willing to pay $50,000/QALY and statins cost $1.54 to $2.21 per pill. At higher statin costs, ATP III is not cost-effective; at lower costs, more liberal statin-prescribing strategies would be preferred; and at costs less than $0.10 per pill, treating all persons with low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels greater than 3.4 mmol/L (>130 mg/dL) would yield net cost savings. RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: Results are sensitive to the assumptions that LDL cholesterol becomes less important as a risk factor with increasing age and that little disutility results from taking a pill every day. LIMITATION: Randomized trial evidence for statin effectiveness is not available for all subgroups. CONCLUSION: The ATP III guidelines are relatively cost-effective and would have a large public health impact if implemented fully in the United States. Alternate strategies may be preferred, however, depending on the cost of statins and how much society is willing to pay for better health outcomes. FUNDING: Flight Attendants' Medical Research Institute and the Swanson Family Fund. The Framingham Heart Study and Framingham Offspring Study are conducted and supported by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute.

Direct angiotensin type 2 receptor (AT2R) stimulation attenuates T-cell and microglia activation and prevents demyelination in experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis in mice.

In the present study, we evaluated stimulation of the angiotensin type 2 receptor (AT2R) by the selective non-peptide agonist Compound 21 (C21) as a novel therapeutic concept for the treatment of multiple sclerosis using the model of experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis (EAE) in mice. C57BL-6 mice were immunized with myelin-oligodendrocyte peptide and treated for 4 weeks with C21 (0.3 mg/kg/day i.p.). Potential effects on myelination, microglia and T-cell composition were estimated by immunostaining and FACS analyses of lumbar spinal cords. The in vivo study was complemented by experiments in aggregating brain cell cultures and microglia in vitro. In the EAE model, treatment with C21 ameliorated microglia activation and decreased the number of total T-cells and CD4+ T-cells in the spinal cord. Fluorescent myelin staining of spinal cords further revealed a significant reduction in EAE-induced demyelinated areas in lumbar spinal cord tissue after AT2R stimulation. C21-treated mice had a significantly better neurological score than vehicle-treated controls. In aggregating brain cell cultures challenged with lipopolysaccharide (LPS) plus interferon-γ (IFNγ), AT2R stimulation prevented demyelination, accelerated re-myelination and reduced the number of microglia. Cytokine synthesis and nitric oxide production by microglia in vitro were significantly reduced after C21 treatment. These results suggest that AT2R stimulation protects the myelin sheaths in autoimmune central nervous system inflammation by inhibiting the T-cell response and microglia activation. Our findings identify the AT2R as a potential new pharmacological target for demyelinating diseases such as multiple sclerosis.

Effort, reward and self-reported mental health: a simulation study on negative affectivity bias.

Background : In the present article, we propose an alternative method for dealing with negative affectivity (NA) biases in research, while investigating the association between a deleterious psychosocial environment at work and poor mental health. First, we investigated how strong NA must be to cause an observed correlation between the independent and dependent variables. Second, we subjectively assessed whether NA can have a large enough impact on a large enough number of subjects to invalidate the observed correlations between dependent and independent variables.Methods : We simulated 10,000 populations of 300 subjects each, using the marginal distribution of workers in an actual population that had answered the Siegrist's questionnaire on effort and reward imbalance (ERI) and the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ).Results : The results of the present study suggested that simulated NA has a minimal effect on the mean scores for effort and reward. However, the correlations between the effort and reward imbalance (ERI) ratio and the GHQ score might be important, even in simulated populations with a limited NA.Conclusions : When investigating the relationship between the ERI ratio and the GHQ score, we suggest the following rules for the interpretation of the results: correlations with an explained variance of 5% and below should be considered with caution; correlations with an explained variance between 5% and 10% may result from NA, although this effect does not seem likely; and correlations with an explained variance of 10% and above are not likely to be the result of NA biases. [Authors]

Direct binding of peptides to MHC class I molecules on living cells. Analysis at the single cell level.

To directly assess the binding of exogenous peptides to cell surface-associated MHC class I molecules at the single cell level, we examined the possibility of combining the use of biotinylated peptide derivatives with an immunofluorescence detection system based on flow cytometry. Various biotinylated derivatives of the adenovirus 5 early region 1A peptide 234-243, an antigenic peptide recognized by CTL in the context of H-2Db, were first screened in functional assays for their ability to bind efficiently to Db molecules on living cells. Suitable peptide derivatives were then tested for their ability to generate positive fluorescence signals upon addition of phycoerythrin-labeled streptavidin to peptide derivative-bearing cells. Strong fluorescent staining of Db-expressing cells was achieved after incubation with a peptide derivative containing a biotin group at the C-terminus. Competition experiments using the unmodified parental peptide as well as unrelated peptides known to bind to Kd, Kb, or Db, respectively, established that binding of the biotinylated peptide to living cells was Db-specific. By using Con A blasts derived from different H-2 congenic mouse strains, it could be shown that the biotinylated peptide bound only to Db among > 20 class I alleles tested. Moreover, binding of the biotinylated peptide to cells expressing the Dbm13 and Dbm14 mutant molecules was drastically reduced compared to Db. Binding of the biotinylated peptide to freshly isolated Db+ cells was readily detectable, allowing direct assessment of the relative amount of peptide bound to distinct lymphocyte subpopulations by three-color flow cytometry. While minor differences between peripheral T and B cells could be documented, thymocytes were found to differ widely in their peptide binding activity. In all cases, these differences correlated positively with the differential expression of Db at the cell surface. Finally, kinetic studies at different temperatures strongly suggested that the biotinylated peptide first associated with Db molecules available constitutively at the cell surface and then with newly arrived Db molecules.

Detection of micrometastases in sentinel lymph nodes from melanoma patients: direct comparison of multimarker molecular and immunopathological methods.

The technique of sentinel lymph node (SLN) dissection is a reliable predictor of metastatic disease in the lymphatic basin draining the primary melanoma. Reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) is emerging as a highly sensitive technique to detect micrometastases in SLNs, but its specificity has been questioned. A prospective SLN study in melanoma patients was undertaken to compare in detail immunopathological versus molecular detection methods. Sentinel lymphadenectomy was performed on 57 patients, with a total of 71 SLNs analysed. SLNs were cut in slices, which were alternatively subjected to parallel multimarker analysis by microscopy (haematoxylin and eosin and immunohistochemistry for HMB-45, S100, tyrosinase and Melan-A/MART-1) and RT-PCR (for tyrosinase and Melan-A/MART-1). Metastases were detected by both methods in 23% of the SLNs (28% of the patients). The combined use of Melan-A/MART-1 and tyrosinase amplification increased the sensitivity of PCR detection of microscopically proven micrometastases. Of the 55 immunopathologically negative SLNs, 25 were found to be positive on RT-PCR. Notably, eight of these SLNs contained naevi, all of which were positive for tyrosinase and/or Melan-A/MART-1, as detected at both mRNA and protein level. The remaining 41% of the SLNs were negative on both immunohistochemistry and RT-PCR. Analysis of a series of adjacent non-SLNs by RT-PCR confirmed the concept of orderly progression of metastasis. Clinical follow-up showed disease recurrence in 12% of the RT-PCR-positive immunopathology-negative SLNs, indicating that even an extensive immunohistochemical analysis may underestimate the presence of micrometastases. However, molecular analyses, albeit more sensitive, need to be further improved in order to attain acceptable specificity before they can be applied diagnostically.

Political Risk, Economic Integration, and the Foreign Direct Investment Decision

In this paper we analyse the impact of policy uncertainty on foreign direct investment strategies. We also consider the impact of economic integration upon FDI decisions. The paper follows the real options approach, which allows investigating the value to a firm of waiting to invest and/or disinvest, when payoffs are stochastic due to political uncertainty and investments are partially reversible. Across the board we find that political uncertainty can be very detrimental to FDI decisions while economic integration leads to an increasing benefit of investing abroad.