Structural time series models and the Kalman filter: A concise review

The continued increase in availability of economic data in recent years and, more importantly, the possibility to construct larger frequency time series, have fostered the use (and development) of statistical and econometric techniques to treat them more accurately. This paper presents an exposition of structural time series models by which a time series can be decomposed as the sum of a trend, seasonal and irregular components. In addition to a detailled analysis of univariate speci fications we also address the SUTSE multivariate case and the issue of cointegration. Finally, the recursive estimation and smoothing by means of the Kalman filter algorithm is described taking into account its different stages, from initialisation to parameter s estimation.

Positive self-image over time

This paper incorporates egocentric comparisons into a human capital accumulation model and studies the evolution of positive self image over time. The paper shows that the process of human capital accumulation together with egocentric comparisons imply that positive self image of a cohort is first increasing and then decreasing over time. Additionally, the paper finds that positive self image: (1) peaks earlier in activities where skill depreciation is higher, (2) is smaller in activities where the distribution of income is more dispersed, (3) is not a stable characteristic of an individual, and (4) is higher for more patient individuals.

A clustering approach for vehicle routing problems with hard time windows

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Logica Computicional

Design of a Continuous-Time (CT) Sigma-Delta modulator for class D audio power amplifiers

Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores

Options and Requirements for a potential market entry into Portugal with renewable energy technologies that are applicable for heating and cooling of buildings

NSBE-UNL

Evaporation from porous building materials and its cooling potential

Evaporative cooling is a traditional strategy to improve summer comfort, which has gained renewed relevance in the context of the transition to a greener economy. Here, the potential for evaporative cooling of two common porous building materials, natural stone and ceramic brick, was evaluated. The work has relevance also to the protection of built heritage becauseevaporation underlies the problems of dampness and salt crystallization, which are so harmful and frequent in this heritage. It was observed that the drying rate of the materials is, in some cases, higher than the evaporation rate of a free water surface. Surface area measurements by a three-dimensional optical technique suggested, as probable cause of this behavior, that surface irregularity gives rise to a large effective surface of evaporation in the material. Surface temperature measurements by infrared were performed afterward during evaporation experiments outside during a hot summer day in Lisbon. Their results indicate that ordinary building materials can be very efficient evaporative media and, thus, may help in achieving higher energy efficiency while maintaining a simultaneous constructive or architectural function.

Human activity recognition with accelerometry: novel time and frequency features

Human Activity Recognition systems require objective and reliable methods that can be used in the daily routine and must offer consistent results according with the performed activities. These systems are under development and offer objective and personalized support for several applications such as the healthcare area. This thesis aims to create a framework for human activities recognition based on accelerometry signals. Some new features and techniques inspired in the audio recognition methodology are introduced in this work, namely Log Scale Power Bandwidth and the Markov Models application. The Forward Feature Selection was adopted as the feature selection algorithm in order to improve the clustering performances and limit the computational demands. This method selects the most suitable set of features for activities recognition in accelerometry from a 423th dimensional feature vector. Several Machine Learning algorithms were applied to the used accelerometry databases – FCHA and PAMAP databases - and these showed promising results in activities recognition. The developed algorithm set constitutes a mighty contribution for the development of reliable evaluation methods of movement disorders for diagnosis and treatment applications.

State detection in a financial portfolio: a self-organizing maps approach for financial time series

This study analyses financial data using the result characterization of a self-organized neural network model. The goal was prototyping a tool that may help an economist or a market analyst to analyse stock market series. To reach this goal, the tool shows economic dependencies and statistics measures over stock market series. The neural network SOM (self-organizing maps) model was used to ex-tract behavioural patterns of the data analysed. Based on this model, it was de-veloped an application to analyse financial data. This application uses a portfo-lio of correlated markets or inverse-correlated markets as input. After the anal-ysis with SOM, the result is represented by micro clusters that are organized by its behaviour tendency. During the study appeared the need of a better analysis for SOM algo-rithm results. This problem was solved with a cluster solution technique, which groups the micro clusters from SOM U-Matrix analyses. The study showed that the correlation and inverse-correlation markets projects multiple clusters of data. These clusters represent multiple trend states that may be useful for technical professionals.

Contribuição para o estudo da anexina V na apoptose celular em concentrados de eritrócitos

A hemoterapia moderna baseia-se na utilização correcta dos diversos componentes sanguíneos, associados a um maior controle de qualidade do sangue, o que a torna mais segura e, actualmente, muitos doentes sao beneficiados pois, a transfusão de componentes sanguineos, em situaçoes várias, está na linha da frente na manutenção da vida e em casos extremos, o último recurso que salva vidas. A qualidade e a segurança nas transfusões de sangue são grandes preocupações da área médica, autoridades de saúde e doente1. O sangue obtido pelos Centros de Sangue provem de dadores voluntários, dotados de uma enorme sensibilidade social, que periodicamente assumem uma postura benevola e altruista e consequentemente mantêm os bancos de sangue providos de um produto imprescindivel no tratamento de diversas patologias. O produto final disponível – concentrado de eritrócitos (CE´s), plasma e concentrado plaquetário – tem de assumir um carácter seguro e viável de modo a que os riscos para o doente sejam diminutos2. O controlo de qualidade aplicado a todo o sangue doado realiza provas de conformidade nas unidades com especificações previamente definidas, sendo a hémolise um dos parâmetros importantes na avaliação da qualidade dos concentrados de eritrócitos, pois, pode ocasionar implicações clinicas para o receptor. Para além disso a avaliação da concentração de hemoglobina (Hg) no sangue doado mostra-se um controlo imprescindivel que salvaguarda a qualidade e segurança do componente a transfundir3;4.Até se obter um CE há todo um processo moroso e de responsabilidade vital. Todo o sangue obtido passa por várias etapas fundamentais até à obtenção do componente pretendido (analise, produção e armazenamento). Os CE’s obtidos quando armazenados, num ambiente de refrigeração, têm uma vida útil de 42 dias. Após este período, o sangue deve ser inutilizado por se verificar alterações bioquímicas, biomecânicas, e imunológicas nos CE’s e por consequência a sua instabilidade vital no que ao tratamento de patologias, para as quais este componente está indicado, diz respeito5. Foi realizado um estudo experimental com o objetivo de avaliar a contribuição da Anexina V na apoptose celular nos concentrados de eritrócitos, constatando a degradação dos mesmos ao longo de todo o período de armazenamento e validar o paradigma que a ciência preconiza: “Os CE’s após os 42 dias armazenados, em condições específicas (2 a 6º centígrados), são inviaveis para transfundir”6;7. A avaliação dos níveis de apoptose por citometria de fluxo é geralmente realizada por métodos que utilizam Anexina V como marcador vital, que se associa aos resíduos de fosfatidilserina, externalizados no início do processo apoptótico. A Anexina V é uma proteína humana endógena dependente do ião Ca+2, amplamente distribuída intracelularmente em altas concentrações na placenta e em concentrações mais baixas nos eritrócitos, plaquetas e monócitos. Apresenta como principal característica a capacidade de se ligar à fosfatidilserina, um fosfolipído presente na camada interna da bicamada lipídica, que durante a apoptose celular é translocada para a camada externa da membrana celular. A determinação da Anexina V é normalmente utilizada para verificar se as células são viáveis, apoptóticas ou necróticas por meio de diferenças na integridade da membrana plasmática. Assim, ao conjugar a Anexina V ao FITC (Isotiocianato de fluoresceína) é possível identificar e quantificar as células apoptóticas por citometria de fluxo7. Numa amostra de 15 CE’s, a qual foi induzida a hemólise, verificou-se, por citometria de fluxo, que a viabilidade deste componente se desvanesce ao longo do tempo, confirmando assim que o tratamento, manuseamento e armazenamento do sangue compromete a vitalidade terapeutica deste insubstituivel produto vital.

Evaluation of the use of real-time PCR for human T cell lymphotropic virus 1 and 2 as a confirmatory test in screening for blood donors

INTRODUCTION: HTLV-1/2 screening among blood donors commonly utilizes an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (EIA), followed by a confirmatory method such as Western blot (WB) if the EIA is positive. However, this algorithm yields a high rate of inconclusive results, and is expensive. METHODS: Two qualitative real-time PCR assays were developed to detect HTLV-1 and 2, and a total of 318 samples were tested (152 blood donors, 108 asymptomatic carriers, 26 HAM/TSP patients and 30 seronegative individuals). RESULTS: The sensitivity and specificity of PCR in comparison with WB results were 99.4% and 98.5%, respectively. PCR tests were more efficient for identifying the virus type, detecting HTLV-2 infection and defining inconclusive cases. CONCLUSIONS: Because real-time PCR is sensitive and practical and costs much less than WB, this technique can be used as a confirmatory test for HTLV in blood banks, as a replacement for WB.

Real-time collaborative editing of OutSystems DSL models

Real-time collaborative editing systems are common nowadays, and their advantages are widely recognized. Examples of such systems include Google Docs, ShareLaTeX, among others. This thesis aims to adopt this paradigm in a software development environment. The OutSystems visual language lends itself very appropriate to this kind of collaboration, since the visual code enables a natural flow of knowledge between developers regarding the developed code. Furthermore, communication and coordination are simplified. This proposal explores the field of collaboration on a very structured and rigid model, where collaboration is made through the copy-modify-merge paradigm, in which a developer gets its own private copy from the shared repository, modifies it in isolation and later uploads his changes to be merged with modifications concurrently produced by other developers. To this end, we designed and implemented an extension to the OutSystems Platform, in order to enable real-time collaborative editing. The solution guarantees consistency among the artefacts distributed across several developers working on the same project. We believe that it is possible to achieve a much more intense collaboration over the same models with a low negative impact on the individual productivity of each developer.

Glomerulonephritis in schistosomiasis mansoni: a time to reappraise

INTRODUCTION: The current prevalence of glomerulonephritis in patients with hepatosplenic schistosomiasis mansoni in Brazil was evaluated. METHODS: Sixty three patients (mean age 45.5±11 years) attending the outpatient infectious disease clinic of a University Hospital in Belo Horizonte, Brazil, from 2007 to 2009, were consecutively examined and enrolled in the present investigation. Diagnosis of hepatosplenic schistosomiasis was based on epidemiological, clinical and parasitological data and imaging techniques. Eight patients, who presented >30mg/day albuminuria, were submitted to percutaneous ultrasound guided renal biopsy. Kidney tissue fragments were examined under light, direct immunofluorescence and electron microscopy. RESULTS: All patients showed mesangial enlargement. In five, mesangial hypercellularity was observed and four presented duplication of the glomerular basement membrane. Areas of glomerular sclerosis were diagnosed in four. Deposits of immunoglobulin M and C3 were present in six samples; deposits of IgG in four, IgA in three and C1q in two samples. In all patients, immunoglobulin A was reported in the lumen of renal tubules. Deposits of kappa and lambda were observed in six samples. Electron microscopy revealed dense deposits in the glomerular tissue of three patients. Arterial hypertension, small esophageal varices, slight increases in serum creatinine and decreases in serum albumin were associated with glomerular disease. CONCLUSIONS: Renal disease associated with hepatosplenic schistosomiasis was verified in 12.7% of patients and type I membranoproliferative glomerulonephritis was observed in 50% of them. Schistosomal glomerulopathy still is an important problem in patients with hepatosplenic schistosomiasis in Brazil.

A matter of time: Phases of customer co-creation community participation and their impact on customer behavior

Despite the growing relevance of co-creating customer communities only little scientific evidence is available on their impact on transactional behavior of participants. Previous research has mostly used self-reported data or distinguished only between during and pre-community phases obtaining mixed results. However, the author proposes that co-creating community activity takes place in five distinguishable phases and changes in transactional behavior are limited to certain phases. Using 33 months of transactional data of a Dutch online auction provider a study was conducted covering all five phases of the community co-creation process from community planning over community set-up, co-development and co-testing to post-launch. The overall results indicate mixed effects of community participation on the different transactional variables during the co-creation process. Community participation had positive effects on auctions listing behavior at the community set-up, co-development and post-launch phases, whereby the number of auctions listed peaked during the community set-up phase. These results suggest that the impact on transactional behavior differs between co-creation phases and different psychological mechanism limited to certain phases might trigger the respective changes.

Chagas disease in the State of Pernambuco, Brazil: analysis of admissions and mortality time series

INTRODUCTION: A time series study of admissions, deaths and acute cases was conducted in order to evaluate the context of Chagas disease in Pernambuco. METHODS: Data reported to the Information Technology Department of the Brazilian National Health Service between 1980 and 2008 was collected for regions and Federal Units of Brazil; and microregions and municipalities of Pernambuco. Rates (per 100,000 inhabitants) of hospitalization, mortality and acute cases were calculated using a national hospital database (SIH), a national mortality database (SIM) and the national Information System for Notifiable Diseases (SINAN), respectively. RESULTS: The national average for Chagas disease admissions was 0.99 from 1995 to 2008. Pernambuco obtained a mean of 0.39 in the same period, with the highest rates being concentrated in the interior of the state. The state obtained a mean mortality rate of 1.56 between 1980 and 2007, which was lower than the national average (3.66). The mortality rate has tended to decline nationally, while it has remained relatively unchanged in Pernambuco. Interpolating national rates of admissions and deaths, mortality rates were higher than hospitalization rates between 1995 and 2007. The same occurred in Pernambuco, except for 2003. Between 2001 and 2006, rates for acute cases were 0.56 and 0.21 for Brazil and Pernambuco, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Although a decrease in Chagas mortality has occurred in Brazil, the disease remains a serious public health problem, especially in the Northeast region. It is thus essential that medical care, prevention and control regarding Chagas disease be maintained and improved.