Translating climate forecasts into agricultural terms: advances and challenges

Seasonal climate prediction offers the potential to anticipate variations in crop production early enough to adjust critical decisions. Until recently, interest in exploiting seasonal forecasts from dynamic climate models (e.g. general circulation models, GCMs) for applications that involve crop simulation models has been hampered by the difference in spatial and temporal scale of GCMs and crop models, and by the dynamic, nonlinear relationship between meteorological variables and crop response. Although GCMs simulate the atmosphere on a sub-daily time step, their coarse spatial resolution and resulting distortion of day-to-day variability limits the use of their daily output. Crop models have used daily GCM output with some success by either calibrating simulated yields or correcting the daily rainfall output of the GCM to approximate the statistical properties of historic observations. Stochastic weather generators are used to disaggregate seasonal forecasts either by adjusting input parameters in a manner that captures the predictable components of climate, or by constraining synthetic weather sequences to match predicted values. Predicting crop yields, simulated with historic weather data, as a statistical function of seasonal climatic predictors, eliminates the need for daily weather data conditioned on the forecast, but must often address poor statistical properties of the crop-climate relationship. Most of the work on using crop simulation with seasonal climate forecasts has employed historic analogs based on categorical ENSO indices. Other methods based on classification of predictors or weather types can provide daily weather inputs to crop models conditioned on forecasts. Advances in climate-based crop forecasting in the coming decade are likely to include more robust evaluation of the methods reviewed here, dynamically embedding crop models within climate models to account for crop influence on regional climate, enhanced use of remote sensing, and research in the emerging area of 'weather within climate'.

Translating climate forecasts into agricultural terms: advances and challenges

Seasonal climate prediction offers the potential to anticipate variations in crop production early enough to adjust critical decisions. Until recently, interest in exploiting seasonal forecasts from dynamic climate models (e.g. general circulation models, GCMs) for applications that involve crop simulation models has been hampered by the difference in spatial and temporal scale of GCMs and crop models, and by the dynamic, nonlinear relationship between meteorological variables and crop response. Although GCMs simulate the atmosphere on a sub-daily time step, their coarse spatial resolution and resulting distortion of day-to-day variability limits the use of their daily output. Crop models have used daily GCM output with some success by either calibrating simulated yields or correcting the daily rainfall output of the GCM to approximate the statistical properties of historic observations. Stochastic weather generators are used to disaggregate seasonal forecasts either by adjusting input parameters in a manner that captures the predictable components of climate, or by constraining synthetic weather sequences to match predicted values. Predicting crop yields, simulated with historic weather data, as a statistical function of seasonal climatic predictors, eliminates the need for daily weather data conditioned on the forecast, but must often address poor statistical properties of the crop-climate relationship. Most of the work on using crop simulation with seasonal climate forecasts has employed historic analogs based on categorical ENSO indices. Other methods based on classification of predictors or weather types can provide daily weather inputs to crop models conditioned on forecasts. Advances in climate-based crop forecasting in the coming decade are likely to include more robust evaluation of the methods reviewed here, dynamically embedding crop models within climate models to account for crop influence on regional climate, enhanced use of remote sensing, and research in the emerging area of 'weather within climate'.

'Fair trade gold': Antecedents, prospects and challenges

This paper critically examines the challenges with, and impacts of, adopting the models in place for fair trade agriculture in the artisanal gold mining sector. Over the past two years, an NGO-led 'fair trade gold' movement has surfaced, its crystallization fuelled by a burgeoning body of evidence that points to impoverished artisanal miners in developing countries receiving low payments for their gold, as well as working in hazardous and unsanitary conditions. Proponents of fair trade gold contest that increased interaction between artisanal miners and Western jewellers could facilitate the former receiving fairer prices for gold, accessing support services, and ultimately, improving their quality of life. In the case of sub-Saharan Africa, however, the gold being mined on an artisanal scale does not supply Western retailers as perhaps believed; it is rather an important source of foreign exchange, which host governments employ buyers to collect for their coffers. It is maintained here that if the underlying purpose of fair trade is to improve the livelihoods and well-being of subsistence producers in developing countries, then the models that have proved so successful in alleviating the hardships of agro-producers of 'tropical' commodities such as coffee, tea, bananas and cocoa, should be adapted to artisanal gold mining in sub-Saharan Africa. Campaigns promoting 'fair trade gold' in the region should view host governments, and not Western retailers, as the 'end consumer', and focus on improving governance at the grassroots, organizing informal operators into working cooperatives, and addressing complications with purchasing arrangements - all of which would go a long way toward improving the livelihoods of subsistence artisanal miners. A case study of Noyem, Ghana, the location of a sprawling illegal gold mining community, is presented, which magnifies these challenges further and provides perspective on how they can be overcome. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Improving awareness of mercury pollution in small-scale gold mining communities: Challenges and ways forward in rural Ghana

This paper critiques the approach taken by the Ghanaian Government to address mercury pollution in the artisanal and small-scale gold mining sector. Unmonitored releases of mercury-used in the gold-amalgamation process-have caused numerous environmental complications throughout rural Ghana. Certain policy, technological and educational initiatives taken to address the mounting problem, however, have proved marginally effective at best, having been designed and implemented without careful analysis of mine community dynamics, the organization of activities, operators' needs and local geological conditions. Marked improvements can only be achieved in this area through increased government-initiated dialogue with the now-ostracized illegal galamsey mining community; introducing simple, cost-effective techniques for the reduction of mercury emissions; and effecting government-sponsored participatory training exercises as mediums for communicating information about appropriate technologies and the environment. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Challenges with minimising mercury pollution in the small-scale gold mining sector: Experiences from the Guianas

This paper examines the barriers to mitigating mercury pollution at small-scale gold mines in the Guianas (Guyana, French Guiana and Suriname), and prescribes recommendations for overcoming these obstacles. Whilst considerable attention has been paid to analysing the environmental impacts of operations in the region, minimal research has been undertaken to identify appropriate policy and educational initiatives for addressing the mounting mercury problem. Findings from recent fieldwork and selected interviews with operators from Guyanese and Surinamese gold mining regions reveal that legislative incapacity, the region's varied industry policy stances, various technological problems, and low environmental awareness on the part of communities are impeding efforts to facilitate improved mercury management at small-scale gold mines in the Guianas. Marked improvements can be achieved, however, if legislation, particularly that pertaining to mercury, is harmonised in the region; educational seminars continue to be held in important mining districts; and additional outlets for disseminating environmental equipment and mercury-free technologies are provided.

Animal health and welfare in organic livestock production in Europe: Current state and future challenges

Existing data on animal health and welfare in organic livestock production systems in the European Community countries are reviewed in the light of the demands and challenges of the recently implemented EU regulation on organic livestock production. The main conclusions and recommendations of a three-year networking project on organic livestock production are summarised and the future challenges to organic livestock production in terms of welfare and health management are discussed. The authors conclude that, whilst the available data are limited and the implementation of the EC regulation is relatively recent, there is little evidence to suggest that organic livestock management causes major threats to animal health and welfare in comparison with conventional systems. There are, however, some well-identified areas, like parasite control and balanced ration formulation, where efforts are needed to find solutions that meet with organic standard requirements and guarantee high levels of health and welfare. It is suggested that, whilst organic standards offer an implicit framework for animal health and welfare management, there is a need to solve apparent conflicts between the organic farming objectives in regard to environment, public health, farmer income and animal health and welfare. The key challenges for the future of organic livestock production in Europe are related to the feasibility of implementing improved husbandry inputs and the development of evidence-based decision support systems for health and feeding management.

In vitro cumulative gas production techniques: History, methodological considerations and challenges

Methodology used to measure in vitro gas production is reviewed to determine impacts of sources of variation on resultant gas production profiles (GPP). Current methods include measurement of gas production at constant pressure (e.g., use of gas tight syringes), a system that is inexpensive, but may be less sensitive than others thereby affecting its suitability in some situations. Automated systems that measure gas production at constant volume allow pressure to accumulate in the bottle, which is recorded at different times to produce a GPP, and may result in sufficiently high pressure that solubility of evolved gases in the medium is affected, thereby resulting in a recorded volume of gas that is lower than that predicted from stoichiometric calculations. Several other methods measure gas production at constant pressure and volume with either pressure transducers or sensors, and these may be manual, semi-automated or fully automated in operation. In these systems, gas is released as pressure increases, and vented gas is recorded. Agitating the medium does not consistently produce more gas with automated systems, and little or no effect of agitation was observed with manual systems. The apparatus affects GPP, but mathematical manipulation may enable effects of apparatus to be removed. The amount of substrate affects the volume of gas produced, but not rate of gas production, provided there is sufficient buffering capacity in the medium. Systems that use a very small amount of substrate are prone to experimental error in sample weighing. Effect of sample preparation on GPP has been found to be important, but further research is required to determine the optimum preparation that mimics animal chewing. Inoculum is the single largest source of variation in measuring GPP, as rumen fluid is variable and sampling schedules, diets fed to donor animals and ratios of rumen fluid/medium must be selected such that microbial activity is sufficiently high that it does not affect rate and extent of fermentation. Species of donor animal may also cause differences in GPP. End point measures can be mathematically manipulated to account for species differences, but rates of fermentation are not related. Other sources of inocula that have been used include caecal fluid (primarily for investigating hindgut fermentation in monogastrics), effluent from simulated rumen fermentation (e.g., 'Rusitec', which was as variable as rumen fluid), faeces, and frozen or freeze-dried rumen fluid (which were both less active than fresh rumen fluid). Use of mixtures of cell-free enzymes, or pure cultures of bacteria, may be a way of increasing GPP reproducibility, while reducing reliance on surgically modified animals. However, more research is required to develop these inocula. A number of media have been developed which buffer the incubation and provide relevant micro-nutrients to the microorganisms. To date, little research has been completed on relationships between the composition of the medium and measured GPP. However, comparing GPP from media either rich in N or N-free, allows assessment of contributions of N containing compounds in the sample. (c) 2005 Published by Elsevier B.V.

A longitudinal study of sero-conversion to tick-borne pathogens in smallholder dairy youngstock in Tanzania

A longitudinal study of sero-conversion of youngstock to the tick-borne pathogens Theileria parva, T mutans, Anaplasma marginale, Babesia bigemina and B. bovis was conducted over two years on smallholder dairy farms in Tanga region, Tanzania. There was evidence of maternal antibodies to all tick-borne pathogens in animals less than 18 weeks of age. Seroprevalence increased as expected with age in animals older than this but seroprevalence profiles underestimated the force of infection due to waning antibody levels between samplings. By the end of the 2-year study, less than 50% of study animals had seroconverted to each of the tick-borne pathogens investigated, consistent with the low levels of tick attachment observed on the study animals. Some associations between seroconversion to tick-borne pathogens, and counts of their known tick vectors on the animals, were identified as expected. However, some were not, suggesting that counts of some tick species may act as an index of rates of attachment of other vector species. Variation in acaricide treatment frequencies was not associated with variations in tick-borne pathogen seroprevalence suggesting that acaricides may be used more frequently than necessary on many farms. Most animals were zero-grazed, a management system associated with a significantly lower likelihood that animals seroconverted to any tick-borne pathogen exceptA. marginale. Seroprevalence varied locally with farm location (particularly for Babesia spp.) but was not well predicted by indices of ecological conditions. Our findings suggest that attempts to achieve a state of 'endemic stability' for tick-bome pathogens may be unreasonable on the smallholder dairy farms studied but reductions in the frequency of use of acaricides may be possible following prospective studies of effects on mortality and morbidity due to tick-bome pathogens. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Potential WTO challenges to the CAP

Since the early 1990s the EU's CAP has undergone considerable change with, first, a switch from market price support to direct payments in 1992 and, second, a further decoupling of support with the creation of the single payment scheme in 2003. Nonetheless, whether the current Doha Round of WTO trade negotiations is successfully completed or not, the CAP will come under renewed scrutiny, as a result either of negotiated reductions in support or of litigation through the WTO's dispute settlement process. This article discusses CAP market price and income support in the context of these likely WTO constraints.

Consumers' willingness-to-pay for organic conversion-grade food: Evidence from five EU countries

In recent years, in overall value, the EU has become a net importer of organic food to supply increasing demand. Financial support for farmers during the conversion period has been made to help expand organic production as this was seen as a barrier to conversion. Meanwhile, farmers have been marketing products produced in this conversion period and labelled as such, the extent to which is described here for the UK, Portugal, Denmark, Ireland and Italy. Consumers' attitudes towards, and willingness-to-pay for, conversion-grade food in these countries is examined. It was found that consumers would be prepared to pay a premium for conversion-grade produce of around half the premium for organic produce with vegetables attracting a higher premium than meat. Finally, the potential of policies for marketing conversion-grade products to encourage more conversion is examined, together with barriers to achieving this. It is concluded that barriers to marketing such products, particularly from retailers, will be formidable. Thus, alternative policies are suggested. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.