Constraining uncertainty in regional hydrologic impacts of climate change: Nonstationarity in downscaling

Regional impacts of climate change remain subject to large uncertainties accumulating from various sources, including those due to choice of general circulation models (GCMs), scenarios, and downscaling methods. Objective constraints to reduce the uncertainty in regional predictions have proven elusive. In most studies to date the nature of the downscaling relationship (DSR) used for such regional predictions has been assumed to remain unchanged in a future climate. However,studies have shown that climate change may manifest in terms of changes in frequencies of occurrence of the leading modes of variability, and hence, stationarity of DSRs is not really a valid assumption in regional climate impact assessment. This work presents an uncertainty modeling framework where, in addition to GCM and scenario uncertainty, uncertainty in the nature of the DSR is explored by linking downscaling with changes in frequencies of such modes of natural variability. Future projections of the regional hydrologic variable obtained by training a conditional random field (CRF) model on each natural cluster are combined using the weighted Dempster-Shafer (D-S) theory of evidence combination. Each projection is weighted with the future projected frequency of occurrence of that cluster (''cluster linking'') and scaled by the GCM performance with respect to the associated cluster for the present period (''frequency scaling''). The D-S theory was chosen for its ability to express beliefs in some hypotheses, describe uncertainty and ignorance in the system, and give a quantitative measurement of belief and plausibility in results. The methodology is tested for predicting monsoon streamflow of the Mahanadi River at Hirakud Reservoir in Orissa, India. The results show an increasing probability of extreme, severe, and moderate droughts due to limate change. Significantly improved agreement between GCM predictions owing to cluster linking and frequency scaling is seen, suggesting that by linking regional impacts to natural regime frequencies, uncertainty in regional predictions can be realistically quantified. Additionally, by using a measure of GCM performance in simulating natural regimes, this uncertainty can be effectively constrained.

The traditionalism-inclusionism controversy in special education : a conceptual analysis

The aim of this study has been to challenge or expand the present views on special education. In a series of six articles this thesis will directly or indirectly debate questions relating to inclusive and exclusive mechanisms in society. It is claimed that the tension between traditionalism and inclusionism within special education may harm the legitimation of special education as a profession of the welfare state. The articles address the relationship between these two approaches. The traditionalism-inclusionism controversy is partly rooted in different ways of understanding the role of special education with respect to democracy. It seems, however, that the traditionalism-inclusionism controversy tends to lead researchers to debate paradigmatic positions with each other than to develop alternative strategies for dealing with the delicate challenge of the differences within education. ---- There are three major areas of this discussion. The first part presents the theory of research programmes as a way of describing the content, the possibilities, and the problems of the different approaches. The main argument is that the concept of research programmes more clearly emphasizes the ethical responsibilities involved in research within the field of special education than does the paradigmatic approach. The second part considers the social aspects of the debate between traditionalism and inclusionism from different perspectives. A central claim made is that the work seen within special education must be understood as a reaction to the social and political world that the profession is part of, and that this also is part of a specific historical development. Even though it is possible to claim that the main aim for special education is to help people that are looked at as disabled or feel disabled, it is also necessary to understand that the profession is highly constrained by the grand narrative of the welfare state and the historical discourse that this profession is part of. The third part focuses on a central aspect of special education: the humanistic solutions towards people who are left behind by ordinary education. The humanistic obligation for special education is part of the general aim of the welfare state to provide an education for a democratic and an inclusive society. This humanistic aim and the goal to offer an education for democracy seem therefore, to dominate the understanding of how special education works.

Multi-Pattern Viterbi Algorithm for joint decoding of multiple speech patterns

Joint decoding of multiple speech patterns so as to improve speech recognition performance is important, especially in the presence of noise. In this paper, we propose a Multi-Pattern Viterbi algorithm (MPVA) to jointly decode and recognize multiple speech patterns for automatic speech recognition (ASR). The MPVA is a generalization of the Viterbi Algorithm to jointly decode multiple patterns given a Hidden Markov Model (HMM). Unlike the previously proposed two stage Constrained Multi-Pattern Viterbi Algorithm (CMPVA),the MPVA is a single stage algorithm. MPVA has the advantage that it cart be extended to connected word recognition (CWR) and continuous speech recognition (CSR) problems. MPVA is shown to provide better speech recognition performance than the earlier techniques: using only two repetitions of noisy speech patterns (-5 dB SNR, 10% burst noise), the word error rate using MPVA decreased by 28.5%, when compared to using individual decoding. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

On the hardness and elastic modulus of bulk metallic glass matrix composites

The influences of the amorphous matrix and crystalline dendrite phases on the hardness and elastic moduli of Zr/Ti-based bulk metallic glass matrix composites have been assessed. While the moduli of the composites correspond to those predicted by the rule of mixtures, the hardness of the composites is similar to that of the matrix, suggesting that the plastic flow in the composites under constrained conditions such as indentation is controlled by the flow resistance of the contiguous matrix. (C) 2010 Acta Materialia Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sliding Modes for the Simulation of Mechanical and Electrical Systems Defined by Differential-Algebraic Equations

We offer a technique, motivated by feedback control and specifically sliding mode control, for the simulation of differential-algebraic equations (DAEs) that describe common engineering systems such as constrained multibody mechanical structures and electric networks. Our algorithm exploits the basic results from sliding mode control theory to establish a simulation environment that then requires only the most primitive of numerical solvers. We circumvent the most important requisite for the conventionalsimulation of DAEs: the calculation of a set of consistent initial conditions. Our algorithm, which relies on the enforcement and occurrence of sliding mode, will ensure that the algebraic equation is satisfied by the dynamic system even for inconsistent initial conditions and for all time thereafter. [DOI:10.1115/1.4001904]

Hydropower Project Design Incorporating Submergence Costs

Submergence of land is a major impact of large hydropower projects. Such projects are often also dogged by siltation, delays in construction and heavy debt burdens-factors that are not considered in the project planning exercise. A simple constrained optimization model for the benefit~ost analysis of large hydropower projects that considers these features is proposed. The model is then applied to two sites in India. Using the potential productivity of an energy plantation on the submergible land is suggested as a reasonable approach to estimating the opportunity cost of submergence. Optimum project dimensions are calculated for various scenarios. Results indicate that the inclusion of submergence cost may lead to a substanual reduction in net present value and hence in project viability. Parameters such as project lifespan, con$truction time, discount rate and external debt burden are also of significance. The designs proposed by the planners are found to be uneconomic, whIle even the optimal design may not be viable for more typical scenarios. The concept of energy opportunity cost is useful for preliminary screening; some projects may require more detailed calculations. The optimization approach helps identify significant trade-offs between energy generation and land availability.

Poincaré invariance of anomalous gauge theories

We establish the Poincaré invariance of anomalous gauge theories in two dimensions, for both the Abelian and non-Abelian cases, in the canonical Hamiltonian formalism. It is shown that, despite the noncovariant appearance of the constraints of these theories, Poincaré generators can be constructed which obey the correct algebra and yield the correct transformations in the constrained space.

An Axiom of Military Law : Applicability of National Criminal Law to Military Personnel and Associated Civilians Abroad

States regularly deploy elements of their armed forces abroad. When that happens, the military personnel concerned largely remain governed by the penal law of the State that they serve. This extraterritorial extension of national criminal law, which has been treated as axiomatic in domestic law and ignored by international law scholarship, is the subject of this dissertation. The first part of the study considers the ambit of national criminal law without any special regard to the armed forces. It explores the historical development of the currently prevailing system of territorial law and looks at the ambit that national legal systems claim today. Turning then to international law, the study debunks the oddly persistent belief that States enjoy a freedom to extend their laws to extraterritorial conduct as they please, and that they are in this respect constrained only by some specific prohibitions in international law. Six arguments historical, empirical, ideological, functional, doctrinal and systemic are advanced to support a contrary view: that States are prohibited from extending the reach of their legal systems abroad, unless they can rely on a permissive principle of international law for doing so. The second part of the study deals specifically with State jurisdiction in a military context, that is to say, as applied to military personnel in the strict sense (service members) and various civilians serving with or accompanying the forces (associated civilians). While the status of armed forces on foreign soil has transformed from one encapsulated in the customary concept of extraterritoriality to a modern regulation of immunities granted by treaties, elements of armed forces located abroad usually do enjoy some degree of insulation from the legal system of the host State. As a corollary, they should generally remain covered by the law of their own State. The extent of this extraterritorial extension of national law is revealed in a comparative review of national legislation, paying particular attention to recent legal reforms in the United States and the United Kingdom two states that have sought to extend the scope of their national law to cover the conduct of military contractor personnel. The principal argument of the dissertation is that applying national criminal law to service members and associated civilians abroad is distinct from other extraterritorial claims of jurisdiction (in particular, the nationality principle or the protective principle of jurisdiction). The service jurisdiction over the armed forces has a distinct aim: ensuring the coherence and indivisibility of the forces and maintaining discipline. Furthermore, the exercise of service jurisdiction seeks to reduce the chances of the State itself becoming internationally liable for the conduct of its service members and associated civilians. Critically, the legal system of the troop-deploying State, by extending its reach abroad, seeks to avoid accountability gaps that might result from immunities from host State law.

Conformational properties of hybrid peptides containing alpha and omega-amino acids

This review briefly surveys the conformational properties of guest omega-amino acid residues when incorporated into host alpha-peptide sequences. The results presented focus primarily on the use of beta- and gamma-residues in alphaomega sequences. The insertion of additional methylene groups into peptide backbones enhances the range of accessible conformations, introducing additional torsional variables. A nomenclature system, which permits ready comparisons between alpha-peptides and hybrid sequences, is defined. Crystal structure determination of hybrid peptides, which adopt helical and beta-hairpin conformations permits the characterization of backbone conformational parameters for beta- and gamma-residues inserted into regular alpha-polypeptide structures. Substituted beta- and gamma-residues are more limited in the range of accessible conformation than their unsubstituted counterparts. The achiral beta,beta-disubstituted gamma-amino acid, gabapentin, is an example of a stereochemically constrained residue in which the torsion angles about the C-beta-C-gamma (theta(1)) and C-alpha-C-beta (theta(2)) bonds are restricted to the gauche conformation. Hybrid sequences permit the design of novel hydrogen bonded rings in peptide structures.

Kinematics of pantograph masts

This paper deals with the kinematics of pantograph masts. Pantograph masts have widespread use in space application as deployable structures. They are over constrained mechanisms with degree-of-freedom, evaluated by the Grübler–Kutzback formula, as less than one. In this paper, a numerical algorithm is used to evaluate the degree-of-freedom of pantograph masts by obtaining the null space of a constraint Jacobian matrix. In the process redundant joints in the masts are obtained. A method based on symbolic computation, to obtain the closed-form kinematics equations of triangular and box shaped pantograph masts, is presented. In the process, the various configurations such masts can attain during deployment, are obtained. The closed-form solution also helps in identifying the redundant joints in the masts. The symbolic computations involving the Jacobian matrix also leads to a method to evaluate the global degree-of-freedom for these masts.

Voluntary Energy Harvesting Relays and Selection in Cooperative Wireless Networks

The use of energy harvesting (EH) nodes as cooperative relays is a promising and emerging solution in wireless systems such as wireless sensor networks. It harnesses the spatial diversity of a multi-relay network and addresses the vexing problem of a relay's batteries getting drained in forwarding information to the destination. We consider a cooperative system in which EH nodes volunteer to serve as amplify-and-forward relays whenever they have sufficient energy for transmission. For a general class of stationary and ergodic EH processes, we introduce the notion of energy constrained and energy unconstrained relays and analytically characterize the symbol error rate of the system. Further insight is gained by an asymptotic analysis that considers the cases where the signal-to-noise-ratio or the number of relays is large. Our analysis quantifies how the energy usage at an EH relay and, consequently, its availability for relaying, depends not only on the relay's energy harvesting process, but also on its transmit power setting and the other relays in the system. The optimal static transmit power setting at the EH relays is also determined. Altogether, our results demonstrate how a system that uses EH relays differs in significant ways from one that uses conventional cooperative relays.

A field-consistent and variationally correct representation of transverse shear strains in the nine-noded plate element

We present a biquadratic Lagrangian plate bending element with consistent fields for the constrained transverse shear strain functions. A technique involving expansion of the strain interpolations in terms of Legendre polynomials is used to redistribute the kinematically derived shear strain fields so that the field-consistent forms (i.e. avoiding locking) are also variationally correct (i.e. do not violate the variational norms). Also, a rational method of isoparametric Jacobian transformation is incorporated so that the constrained covariant shear strain fields are always consistent in whatever general quadrilateral form the element may take. Finally the element is compared with another formulation which was recently published. The element is subjected to several robust bench mark tests and is found to pass all the tests efficiently.

A homotopy approach for stabilizing single-input systems with control structure constraints

A linear state feedback gain vector used in the control of a single input dynamical system may be constrained because of the way feedback is realized. Some examples of feedback realizations which impose constraints on the gain vector are: static output feedback, constant gain feedback for several operating points of a system, and two-controller feedback. We consider a general class of problems of stabilization of single input dynamical systems with such structural constraints and give a numerical method to solve them. Each of these problems is cast into a problem of solving a system of equalities and inequalities. In this formulation, the coefficients of the quadratic and linear factors of the closed-loop characteristic polynomial are the variables. To solve the system of equalities and inequalities, a continuous realization of the gradient projection method and a barrier method are used under the homotopy framework. Our method is illustrated with an example for each class of control structure constraint.

Microfinance, Efficiency and Agricultural Production in Bangladesh

The objectives of this study were to make a detailed and systematic empirical analysis of microfinance borrowers and non-borrowers in Bangladesh and also examine how efficiency measures are influenced by the access to agricultural microfinance. In the empirical analysis, this study used both parametric and non-parametric frontier approaches to investigate differences in efficiency estimates between microfinance borrowers and non-borrowers. This thesis, based on five articles, applied data obtained from a survey of 360 farm households from north-central and north-western regions in Bangladesh. The methods used in this investigation involve stochastic frontier (SFA) and data envelopment analysis (DEA) in addition to sample selectivity and limited dependent variable models. In article I, technical efficiency (TE) estimation and identification of its determinants were performed by applying an extended Cobb-Douglas stochastic frontier production function. The results show that farm households had a mean TE of 83% with lower TE scores for the non-borrowers of agricultural microfinance. Addressing institutional policies regarding the consolidation of individual plots into farm units, ensuring access to microfinance, extension education for the farmers with longer farming experience are suggested to improve the TE of the farmers. In article II, the objective was to assess the effects of access to microfinance on household production and cost efficiency (CE) and to determine the efficiency differences between the microfinance participating and non-participating farms. In addition, a non-discretionary DEA model was applied to capture directly the influence of microfinance on farm households production and CE. The results suggested that under both pooled DEA models and non-discretionary DEA models, farmers with access to microfinance were significantly more efficient than their non-borrowing counterparts. Results also revealed that land fragmentation, family size, household wealth, on farm-training and off farm income share are the main determinants of inefficiency after effectively correcting for sample selection bias. In article III, the TE of traditional variety (TV) and high-yielding-variety (HYV) rice producers were estimated in addition to investigating the determinants of adoption rate of HYV rice. Furthermore, the role of TE as a potential determinant to explain the differences of adoption rate of HYV rice among the farmers was assessed. The results indicated that in spite of its much higher yield potential, HYV rice production was associated with lower TE and had a greater variability in yield. It was also found that TE had a significant positive influence on the adoption rates of HYV rice. In article IV, we estimated profit efficiency (PE) and profit-loss between microfinance borrowers and non-borrowers by a sample selection framework, which provided a general framework for testing and taking into account the sample selection in the stochastic (profit) frontier function analysis. After effectively correcting for selectivity bias, the mean PE of the microfinance borrowers and non-borrowers were estimated at 68% and 52% respectively. This suggested that a considerable share of profits were lost due to profit inefficiencies in rice production. The results also demonstrated that access to microfinance contributes significantly to increasing PE and reducing profit-loss per hectare land. In article V, the effects of credit constraints on TE, allocative efficiency (AE) and CE were assessed while adequately controlling for sample selection bias. The confidence intervals were determined by the bootstrap method for both samples. The results indicated that differences in average efficiency scores of credit constrained and unconstrained farms were not statistically significant although the average efficiencies tended to be higher in the group of unconstrained farms. After effectively correcting for selectivity bias, household experience, number of dependents, off-farm income, farm size, access to on farm training and yearly savings were found to be the main determinants of inefficiencies. In general, the results of the study revealed the existence substantial technical, allocative, economic inefficiencies and also considerable profit inefficiencies. The results of the study suggested the need to streamline agricultural microfinance by the microfinance institutions (MFIs), donor agencies and government at all tiers. Moreover, formulating policies that ensure greater access to agricultural microfinance to the smallholder farmers on a sustainable basis in the study areas to enhance productivity and efficiency has been recommended. Key Words: Technical, allocative, economic efficiency, DEA, Non-discretionary DEA, selection bias, bootstrapping, microfinance, Bangladesh.

The German Military Entrepreneur Ernst von Mansfeld and His Conduct of Asymmetrical Warfare in the Thirty Years War

The dissertation examines aspects of asymmetrical warfare in the war-making of the German military entrepreneur Ernst von Mansfeld during his involvement in the Thirty Years War. Due to the nature of the inquiry, which combines history with military-political theory, the methodological approach of the dissertation is interdisciplinary. The theoretical framework used is that of asymmetrical warfare. The primary sources used in the dissertation are mostly political pamphlets and newsletters. Other sources include letters, documents, and contemporaneous chronicles. The secondary sources are divided into two categories, literature on the history of the Thirty Years War and textbooks covering the theory of asymmetrical warfare. The first category includes biographical works on Ernst von Mansfeld, as well as general histories of the Thirty Years War and seventeenth-century warfare. The second category combines military theory and political science. The structure of the dissertation consists of eight lead chapters, including an introduction and conclusion. The introduction covers the theoretical approach and aims of the dissertation, and provides a brief overlook of the sources and previous research on Ernst von Mansfeld and asymmetrical warfare in the Thirty Years War. The second chapter covers aspects of Mansfeld s asymmetrical warfare from the perspective of operational art. The third chapter investigates the illegal and immoral aspects of Mansfeld s war-making. The fourth chapter compares the differing methods by which Mansfeld and his enemies raised and financed their armies. The fifth chapter investigates Mansfeld s involvement in indirect warfare. The sixth chapter presents Mansfeld as an object and an agent of image and information war. The seventh chapter looks into the counter-reactions, which Mansfeld s asymmetrical warfare provoked from his enemies. The eighth chapter offers a conclusion of the findings. The dissertation argues that asymmetrical warfare presented itself in all the aforementioned areas of Mansfeld s conduct during the Thirty Years War. The operational asymmetry arose from the freedom of movement that Mansfeld enjoyed, while his enemies were constrained by the limits of positional warfare. As a non-state operator Mansfeld was also free to flout the rules of seventeenth-century warfare, which his enemies could not do with equal ease. The raising and financing of military forces was another source of asymmetry, because the nature of early seventeenth-century warfare favoured private military entrepreneurs rather than embryonic fiscal-military states. The dissertation also argues that other powers fought their own asymmetrical and indirect wars against the Habsburgs through Mansfeld s agency. Image and information were asymmetrical weapons, which were both aimed against Mansfeld and utilized by him. Finally, Mansfeld s asymmetrical threat forced the Habsburgs to adapt to his methods, which ultimately lead to the formation of a subcontracted Imperial Army under the management and leadership of Albrecht von Wallenstein. Therefore Mansfeld s asymmetrical warfare ultimately paved way for the kind of state-monopolized, organised, and symmetrical warfare that has prevailed from 1648 onwards. The conclusion is that Mansfeld s conduct in the Thirty Years War matched the criteria for asymmetrical warfare. While traditional historiography treated Mansfeld as an anomaly in the age of European state formation, his asymmetrical warfare has begun to bear resemblance to the contemporary conflicts, where nation states no longer hold the monopoly of violence.