Adaptive designs in the time to event setting: The potential for benefit and risk

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Judicial (in)activism in Australia's secular commonwealth

his article addresses two aspects of Australia's soft secular government. The first aspect explains how, and asks why, judges have been inactive in helping to draw the contours of secular government in Australia. The principal reason is that much of the social regulation that provokes the interest of faith-based groups is the constitutional concern of the States, and no State Constitution claims to coordinate relations between church and state. Moreover, the electorate has twice refused to pass referenda, in 1944 and 1988, for extending a constitutional demand of secular governance to the States. However, this is not so for the Commonwealth. It falls under the restrictions of section 116 of the federal Constitution, which states: The Commonwealth shall not make any law for establishing any religion ('the establishment clause') or for imposing any religious observance, or for prohibiting the free exercise of any religion ('the free exercise clause'), and no religious test shall be required as a qualification for any office or public trust under the Commonwealth. As will be explained, while methods of legal interpretation suggest that section 116's establishment clause could place mild demands of non-discrimination on the federal Parliament, judicial inactivity in policing such demands on the Commonwealth, paradoxically, has arguably been secured by judicial activism in the High Court. A second aspect of secular government addressed is the High Court's disposal of 'the separation of church and state' as a constitutional principle in Australia. The contrast, of course, is to the United States, where for sixty years 'separation' has been given uneven recognition as a rule of constitutional law, and has undoubtedly driven the development of hard forms of secular governance in that country. The centrepiece of American secular government is the 1971 decision in Lemon v Kurtzman, where the US Supreme Court held that valid legislation had to pass three tests, ie: First, the statute must have a secular legislative purpose; second, its principal or primary effect must be one that neither advances nor inhibits religion .. . finally, the statute must not foster 'an excessive government entanglement with religion. The third 'entanglement' prong of Lemon is the modern, less ambitious, form of the 'wall of separation', prohibiting too close an engagement between church and state. As this paper will demonstrate, 'entanglement's' destiny shows how unlikely it is that 'separation' can survive as a meaningful constitutional principle in the USA. And, it will also be argued that 'separation' has even poorer prospects for import to Australia.

Information flow analysis for fail-secure devices

Information security devices must preserve security properties even in the presence of faults. This in turn requires a rigorous evaluation of the system behaviours resulting from component failures, especially how such failures affect information flow. We introduce a compositional method of static analysis for fail-secure behaviour. Our method uses reachability matrices to identify potentially undesirable information flows based on the fault modes of the system's components.

Mesoporous bioactive glasses. I. Synthesis and structural characterization

Highly ordered mesoporous bioactive glasses (MBGs) with different compositions have been synthesized by a combination of surfactant templating, sol-gel method and evaporation-induced self-assembly (EISA) processes. The texture properties and compositional homogeneity of MBGs have been characterized and compared with conventional bioactive glasses (BGs) synthesized in the absence of surfactants by evaporation method. The formation mechanism (pore - composition dependence) and compositional homogeneity in the case of MBG materials are different from those in conventional BGs. Unlike conventional sol-gel-derived BGs that shows a direct correlation between their composition and pore architecture, MBGs with different compositions may possess similar pore volume and uniformly distributed pore size when the same structure-directing agent is utilized. The framework of MBG is homogeneously distributed in composition at the nanoscale and the inorganic species generally exists in the form of amorphous phase. MBGs calcined at temperatures

Mice and men: Their promoter properties

Using the two largest collections of Mus musculus and Homo sapiens transcription start sites ( TSSs) determined based on CAGE tags, ditags, full- length cDNAs, and other transcript data, we describe the compositional landscape surrounding TSSs with the aim of gaining better insight into the properties of mammalian promoters. We classified TSSs into four types based on compositional properties of regions immediately surrounding them. These properties highlighted distinctive features in the extended core promoters that helped us delineate boundaries of the transcription initiation domain space for both species. The TSS types were analyzed for associations with initiating dinucleotides, CpG islands, TATA boxes, and an extensive collection of statistically significant cis- elements in mouse and human. We found that different TSS types show preferences for different sets of initiating dinucleotides and ciselements. Through Gene Ontology and eVOC categories and tissue expression libraries we linked TSS characteristics to expression. Moreover, we show a link of TSS characteristics to very specific genomic organization in an example of immune- response- related genes ( GO: 0006955). Our results shed light on the global properties of the two transcriptomes not revealed before and therefore provide the framework for better understanding of the transcriptional mechanisms in the two species, as well as a framework for development of new and more efficient promoter- and gene- finding tools.

Optimal eradication: when to stop looking for an invasive plant

The notion of being sure that you have completely eradicated an invasive species is fanciful because of imperfect detection and persistent seed banks. Eradication is commonly declared either on an ad hoc basis, on notions of seed bank longevity, or on setting arbitrary thresholds of 1% or 5% confidence that the species is not present. Rather than declaring eradication at some arbitrary level of confidence, we take an economic approach in which we stop looking when the expected costs outweigh the expected benefits. We develop theory that determines the number of years of absent surveys required to minimize the net expected cost. Given detection of a species is imperfect, the optimal stopping time is a trade-off between the cost of continued surveying and the cost of escape and damage if eradication is declared too soon. A simple rule of thumb compares well to the exact optimal solution using stochastic dynamic programming. Application of the approach to the eradication programme of Helenium amarum reveals that the actual stopping time was a precautionary one given the ranges for each parameter.

Liberal Democracy and the Inferior 'Other'Other’: Could the peace liberal democracy promises to bring not extend to ‘Others’?

Advocates of liberal democracy argue that its principles and practices contribute directly to peace (at both inter-state and domestic levels). They rely on ideals such as the rule of law, institutional checks and balances on power, an ethos of tolerance, and free market economics to deliver the liberal peace. Liberals, however, overlook three important features embedded in the construction of liberal democracy which can serve to facilitate political violence: 1) the fixed and thus non-negotiable nature of liberal democracy’s core principles, 2) the inferior manner in which it conceives ‘Other’ social orders that do not share its core principles, and 3) the urge to proselytise Others. Together, these constitutive qualities can facilitate moves by leaders of Other groups to argue that liberal democracy threatens ‘their’ preferred identity, and thus its promised peaceful outcomes can be put in doubt.

Modelling frontal discontinuities in wind fields

A Bayesian procedure for the retrieval of wind vectors over the ocean using satellite borne scatterometers requires realistic prior near-surface wind field models over the oceans. We have implemented carefully chosen vector Gaussian Process models; however in some cases these models are too smooth to reproduce real atmospheric features, such as fronts. At the scale of the scatterometer observations, fronts appear as discontinuities in wind direction. Due to the nature of the retrieval problem a simple discontinuity model is not feasible, and hence we have developed a constrained discontinuity vector Gaussian Process model which ensures realistic fronts. We describe the generative model and show how to compute the data likelihood given the model. We show the results of inference using the model with Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods on both synthetic and real data.

The debate on human automatism in mid-Victorian England

During the 1830s, Marshall Hall carried out innumerable experiments on a great variety of animals to establish the concept of a ‘reflex arc’. In France F.L.Goltz showed that decerebrate frogs were still capable of complex behaviours. Thomas Laycock in England and Ivan Sechenov in Russia sought to apply the reflex idea to the brain. This paper follows the debate in the periodical literature of mid-Victorian England and discusses the contributions of WB Carpenter, Herbert Spencer, TH Huxley, W Clifford and others. The previous outing of this issue in the post-Cartesian seventeenth century had been largely suppressed by ecclesiastical authority. In the nineteenth century ecclesiastical power had waned, at least in England, and the debate could take a more open form. As neurophysiology and behavioural science developed, with the widespread acceptance of Darwinian evolution, it became more and more difficult to deny that brain and mind were part of the natural world and subject to the usual laws of cause and effect. This, of course, had powerful implications for the human self-image and for jurisprudence. These implications are still with us and the work of neurophysiologists such as Benjamin Libet have only reinforced them. Should humans be regarded as ‘automata’ and, if so, what becomes of ‘free will’, ‘responsibility’, and the rule of law? The Victorian debate is still useful and relevant.

Fatigue crack initiation and propagation from defects in aluminium welds

Fatigue crack initiation and propagation in aluminium butt welds has been investigated. It is shown that the initiation of cracks from both buried defects and. from the weld reinforcement may be quantified by predictive laws based on either linear elastic fracture mechanics, or on Neuber's rule of stress and strain ooncentrations. The former is preferable on the grounds of theoretical models of crack tip plasticity, although either may be used as the basis of an effeotive design criteria against crack initiation. Fatigue lives fol1owing initiation were found to follow predictions based on the integration of a Paris type power law. The effect of residual stresses from the welding operation on both initiation and propagation was accounted for by a Forman type equation. This incorporated the notional stress ratio produced by the residual stresses after various heat treatments. A fracture mechanics analysis was found to be useful in describing the fatigue behaviour of the weldments at increased temperatures up to 300°C. It is pointed out, however, that the complex interaction of residual stresses, frequency, and changes in fracture mode necessitate great caution in the application of any general design criteria against crack initiation and growth at elevated. temperatures.

Institutions and female entrepreneurship

This paper compares the impact of institutions on men and women’s decisions to establish new business start-ups between 2001 and 2006. We use data from the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor survey (GEM) which cover at least 2,000 individuals per year in each of up to 55 countries and have merged it with country-level data, from the World Bank, Economist Intelligence Unit, Polity IV and the Heritage Foundation. We find that women are less likely to undertake entrepreneurial activity in countries where the state sector is larger, but the rule of law is not generally found to have gender-specific effects. However, more detailed institutional components of discrimination against women, in particular, restrictions on freedom of movement away from home, make it less likely for women to have high entrepreneurial aspirations in terms of employment growth, even if their entry into entrepreneurial activities, including self-employment, is not affected by this.

Do institutions have a greater effect on female entrepreneurs?

This paper compares the impact of institutions on individual decisions to become entrepreneurs in the form of new business start ups by males and females across 44 developed and developing economies between 1998 and 2004. We test four hypotheses; that women are less likely to undertake entrepreneurial activity in countries where the rule of law is weaker; where the state sector is larger; where the informal financial sector is weaker and where the formal financial sector is weaker. We use data from the Global Enterprise Monitor survey (GEM) which covers at least 2,000 individuals annually in each of up to 44 countries, merged with country-level data, from the WB WDI and Heritage Foundation. We start with a spectrum of institutional variables and by utilizing factor analysis prior to regression estimation models, we are able to obtain results that are more robust and address multicollinearity between the institutional measures. We find that women are less likely to undertake entrepreneurial activity in countries where the state sector is larger, and demonstrate that this result applies to both high aspiration and low aspiration entrepreneurship. We also find that women benefit more from the larger informal financial sector.

Entrepreneurial entry:which institutions matter?

In this paper we explore the relationship between the individual decision to become an entrepreneur and the institutional context. We pinpoint the critical roles of property rights and the size of the state sector for entrepreneurial activity and test the relationships empirically by combining country-level institutional indicators for 44 countries with working age population survey data taken from the Global Enterprise Monitor. A methodological contribution is the use of factor analysis to reduce the statistical problems with the array of highly collinear institutional indicators. We find that the key institutional features that enhance entrepreneurial activity are indeed the rule of law and limits to the state sector. However, these results are sensitive to the level of development.

Strengthening mechanisms in nanostructured copper/304 stainless steel multilayers

Nanostructured Cu/304 stainless steel (SS) multilayers were prepared by magnetron sputtering. 304SS has a face-centered-cubic (fcc) structure in bulk. However, in the Cu/304SS multilayers, the 304SS layers exhibit the fcc structure for layer thickness of =5 nm in epitaxy with the neighboring fcc Cu. For 304SS layer thickness larger than 5 nm, body-centered-cubic (bcc) 304SS grains grow on top of the initial 5 nm fcc SS with the Kurdjumov-Sachs orientation relationship between bcc and fcc SS grains. The maximum hardness of Cu/304SS multilayers is about 5.5 GPa (factor of two enhancement compared to rule-of-mixtures hardness) at a layer thickness of 5 nm. Below 5 nm, hardness decreases with decreasing layer thickness. The peak hardness of fcc/fcc Cu/304SS multilayer is greater than that of Cu/Ni, even though the lattice-parameter mismatch between Cu and Ni is five times greater than that between Cu and 304SS. This result may primarily be attributed to the higher interface barrier stress for single-dislocation transmission across the {111} twinned interfaces in Cu/304SS as compared to the {100} interfaces in Cu/Ni.

Pre-adoption market reaction to IFRS 9:a cross-country event-study

We are the first to examine the market reaction to 13 announcement dates related to IFRS 9 for over 5400 European listed firms. We find an overall positive reaction to the introduction of IFRS 9. The regulation is particularly beneficial to shareholders of firms in countries with weaker rule of law and a smaller divergence between local GAAP and IAS 39. Bootstrap simulations rule out the possibility that sampling error or data mining are driving our findings. Our main findings are also robust to confounding events and the extent of the media coverage for each event. These results suggest that investors perceive the new regulation as shareholder-wealth enhancing and support the view that stronger comparability across accounting standards of European firms is beneficial to international investors and outweighs the costs of poorer firm-specific information.