Sviluppo e Applicazione di Metodologie per l'Ottimizzazione di Sistemi Energetici

La riduzione dei consumi di combustibili fossili e lo sviluppo di tecnologie per il risparmio energetico sono una questione di centrale importanza sia per l’industria che per la ricerca, a causa dei drastici effetti che le emissioni di inquinanti antropogenici stanno avendo sull’ambiente. Mentre un crescente numero di normative e regolamenti vengono emessi per far fronte a questi problemi, la necessità di sviluppare tecnologie a basse emissioni sta guidando la ricerca in numerosi settori industriali. Nonostante la realizzazione di fonti energetiche rinnovabili sia vista come la soluzione più promettente nel lungo periodo, un’efficace e completa integrazione di tali tecnologie risulta ad oggi impraticabile, a causa sia di vincoli tecnici che della vastità della quota di energia prodotta, attualmente soddisfatta da fonti fossili, che le tecnologie alternative dovrebbero andare a coprire. L’ottimizzazione della produzione e della gestione energetica d’altra parte, associata allo sviluppo di tecnologie per la riduzione dei consumi energetici, rappresenta una soluzione adeguata al problema, che può al contempo essere integrata all’interno di orizzonti temporali più brevi. L’obiettivo della presente tesi è quello di investigare, sviluppare ed applicare un insieme di strumenti numerici per ottimizzare la progettazione e la gestione di processi energetici che possa essere usato per ottenere una riduzione dei consumi di combustibile ed un’ottimizzazione dell’efficienza energetica. La metodologia sviluppata si appoggia su un approccio basato sulla modellazione numerica dei sistemi, che sfrutta le capacità predittive, derivanti da una rappresentazione matematica dei processi, per sviluppare delle strategie di ottimizzazione degli stessi, a fronte di condizioni di impiego realistiche. Nello sviluppo di queste procedure, particolare enfasi viene data alla necessità di derivare delle corrette strategie di gestione, che tengano conto delle dinamiche degli impianti analizzati, per poter ottenere le migliori prestazioni durante l’effettiva fase operativa. Durante lo sviluppo della tesi il problema dell’ottimizzazione energetica è stato affrontato in riferimento a tre diverse applicazioni tecnologiche. Nella prima di queste è stato considerato un impianto multi-fonte per la soddisfazione della domanda energetica di un edificio ad uso commerciale. Poiché tale sistema utilizza una serie di molteplici tecnologie per la produzione dell’energia termica ed elettrica richiesta dalle utenze, è necessario identificare la corretta strategia di ripartizione dei carichi, in grado di garantire la massima efficienza energetica dell’impianto. Basandosi su un modello semplificato dell’impianto, il problema è stato risolto applicando un algoritmo di Programmazione Dinamica deterministico, e i risultati ottenuti sono stati comparati con quelli derivanti dall’adozione di una più semplice strategia a regole, provando in tal modo i vantaggi connessi all’adozione di una strategia di controllo ottimale. Nella seconda applicazione è stata investigata la progettazione di una soluzione ibrida per il recupero energetico da uno scavatore idraulico. Poiché diversi layout tecnologici per implementare questa soluzione possono essere concepiti e l’introduzione di componenti aggiuntivi necessita di un corretto dimensionamento, è necessario lo sviluppo di una metodologia che permetta di valutare le massime prestazioni ottenibili da ognuna di tali soluzioni alternative. Il confronto fra i diversi layout è stato perciò condotto sulla base delle prestazioni energetiche del macchinario durante un ciclo di scavo standardizzato, stimate grazie all’ausilio di un dettagliato modello dell’impianto. Poiché l’aggiunta di dispositivi per il recupero energetico introduce gradi di libertà addizionali nel sistema, è stato inoltre necessario determinare la strategia di controllo ottimale dei medesimi, al fine di poter valutare le massime prestazioni ottenibili da ciascun layout. Tale problema è stato di nuovo risolto grazie all’ausilio di un algoritmo di Programmazione Dinamica, che sfrutta un modello semplificato del sistema, ideato per lo scopo. Una volta che le prestazioni ottimali per ogni soluzione progettuale sono state determinate, è stato possibile effettuare un equo confronto fra le diverse alternative. Nella terza ed ultima applicazione è stato analizzato un impianto a ciclo Rankine organico (ORC) per il recupero di cascami termici dai gas di scarico di autovetture. Nonostante gli impianti ORC siano potenzialmente in grado di produrre rilevanti incrementi nel risparmio di combustibile di un veicolo, è necessario per il loro corretto funzionamento lo sviluppo di complesse strategie di controllo, che siano in grado di far fronte alla variabilità della fonte di calore per il processo; inoltre, contemporaneamente alla massimizzazione dei risparmi di combustibile, il sistema deve essere mantenuto in condizioni di funzionamento sicure. Per far fronte al problema, un robusto ed efficace modello dell’impianto è stato realizzato, basandosi sulla Moving Boundary Methodology, per la simulazione delle dinamiche di cambio di fase del fluido organico e la stima delle prestazioni dell’impianto. Tale modello è stato in seguito utilizzato per progettare un controllore predittivo (MPC) in grado di stimare i parametri di controllo ottimali per la gestione del sistema durante il funzionamento transitorio. Per la soluzione del corrispondente problema di ottimizzazione dinamica non lineare, un algoritmo basato sulla Particle Swarm Optimization è stato sviluppato. I risultati ottenuti con l’adozione di tale controllore sono stati confrontati con quelli ottenibili da un classico controllore proporzionale integrale (PI), mostrando nuovamente i vantaggi, da un punto di vista energetico, derivanti dall’adozione di una strategia di controllo ottima.

Multi-valued control problems and mixture density network

We have proposed a novel robust inversion-based neurocontroller that searches for the optimal control law by sampling from the estimated Gaussian distribution of the inverse plant model. However, for problems involving the prediction of continuous variables, a Gaussian model approximation provides only a very limited description of the properties of the inverse model. This is usually the case for problems in which the mapping to be learned is multi-valued or involves hysteritic transfer characteristics. This often arises in the solution of inverse plant models. In order to obtain a complete description of the inverse model, a more general multicomponent distributions must be modeled. In this paper we test whether our proposed sampling approach can be used when considering an arbitrary conditional probability distributions. These arbitrary distributions will be modeled by a mixture density network. Importance sampling provides a structured and principled approach to constrain the complexity of the search space for the ideal control law. The effectiveness of the importance sampling from an arbitrary conditional probability distribution will be demonstrated using a simple single input single output static nonlinear system with hysteretic characteristics in the inverse plant model.

Probability distribution modelling to improve stability in nonlinear MIMO control

We consider the direct adaptive inverse control of nonlinear multivariable systems with different delays between every input-output pair. In direct adaptive inverse control, the inverse mapping is learned from examples of input-output pairs. This makes the obtained controller sub optimal, since the network may have to learn the response of the plant over a larger operational range than necessary. Moreover, in certain applications, the control problem can be redundant, implying that the inverse problem is ill posed. In this paper we propose a new algorithm which allows estimating and exploiting uncertainty in nonlinear multivariable control systems. This approach allows us to model strongly non-Gaussian distribution of control signals as well as processes with hysteresis. The proposed algorithm circumvents the dynamic programming problem by using the predicted neural network uncertainty to localise the possible control solutions to consider.

Responsive systems:an introduction

This paper introduces responsive systems: systems that are real-time, event-based, or time-dependent. There are a number of trends that are accelerating the adoption of responsive systems: timeliness requirements for business information systems are becoming more prevalent, embedded systems are increasingly integrated into soft real-time command-and-control systems, improved message-oriented middleware is facilitating growth in event-processing applications, and advances in service-oriented and component-based techniques are lowering the costs of developing and deploying responsive applications. The use of responsive systems is illustrated here in two application areas: the defense industry and online gaming. The papers in this special issue of the IBM Systems Journal are then introduced. The paper concludes with a discussion of the key remaining challenges in this area and ideas for further work.

A systems methodology for analysing and simulating manufacturing systems

The Systems Engineering Group (SEG) at De Montfort University are developing the Boardman Soft Systems Methodology (BSSM) which allows complex human systems to be modelled, this work builds upon Checkland's Soft Systems Methodology (1981). The BSSM has been applied to the modelling of the systems engineering process as used in design and manufacturing companies. The BSSM is used to solicit information from a company and this data is then transformed into systemic diagrams (systemigrams). These systemigrams are posited to be accurate and concise representations of the system which has been modelled. This paper describes the collaboration between SEG and a manufacturing company (MC) in Leicester, England. The purpose of this collaboration was twofold. First, it was to create an objective view of the MC's processes, in the form of systemigrams. It was important to get this modelled by a source outside of the company, as it is difficult for people within a system being modelled to be unbiased. Secondly, it allowed a series of systemigrams to be produced which can then be subjected to simulation, for the purpose of aiding risk management decisions and to reduce the project cycle time

Pragmatic approach to the development of robust real-time protocols

This research is concerned with the development of distributed real-time systems, in which software is used for the control of concurrent physical processes. These distributed control systems are required to periodically coordinate the operation of several autonomous physical processes, with the property of an atomic action. The implementation of this coordination must be fault-tolerant if the integrity of the system is to be maintained in the presence of processor or communication failures. Commit protocols have been widely used to provide this type of atomicity and ensure consistency in distributed computer systems. The objective of this research is the development of a class of robust commit protocols, applicable to the coordination of distributed real-time control systems. Extended forms of the standard two phase commit protocol, that provides fault-tolerant and real-time behaviour, were developed. Petri nets are used for the design of the distributed controllers, and to embed the commit protocol models within these controller designs. This composition of controller and protocol model allows the analysis of the complete system in a unified manner. A common problem for Petri net based techniques is that of state space explosion, a modular approach to both the design and analysis would help cope with this problem. Although extensions to Petri nets that allow module construction exist, generally the modularisation is restricted to the specification, and analysis must be performed on the (flat) detailed net. The Petri net designs for the type of distributed systems considered in this research are both large and complex. The top down, bottom up and hybrid synthesis techniques that are used to model large systems in Petri nets are considered. A hybrid approach to Petri net design for a restricted class of communicating processes is developed. Designs produced using this hybrid approach are modular and allow re-use of verified modules. In order to use this form of modular analysis, it is necessary to project an equivalent but reduced behaviour on the modules used. These projections conceal events local to modules that are not essential for the purpose of analysis. To generate the external behaviour, each firing sequence of the subnet is replaced by an atomic transition internal to the module, and the firing of these transitions transforms the input and output markings of the module. Thus local events are concealed through the projection of the external behaviour of modules. This hybrid design approach preserves properties of interest, such as boundedness and liveness, while the systematic concealment of local events allows the management of state space. The approach presented in this research is particularly suited to distributed systems, as the underlying communication model is used as the basis for the interconnection of modules in the design procedure. This hybrid approach is applied to Petri net based design and analysis of distributed controllers for two industrial applications that incorporate the robust, real-time commit protocols developed. Temporal Petri nets, which combine Petri nets and temporal logic, are used to capture and verify causal and temporal aspects of the designs in a unified manner.

Digital control system programming from process control diagrams

A graphical process control language has been developed as a means of defining process control software. The user configures a block diagram describing the required control system, from a menu of functional blocks, using a graphics software system with graphics terminal. Additions may be made to the menu of functional blocks, to extend the system capability, and a group of blocks may be defined as a composite block. This latter feature provides for segmentation of the overall system diagram and the repeated use of the same group of blocks within the system. The completed diagram is analyzed by a graphics compiler which generates the programs and data structure to realise the run-time software. The run-time software has been designed as a data-driven system which allows for modifications at the run-time level in both parameters and system configuration. Data structures have been specified to ensure efficient execution and minimal storage requirements in the final control software. Machine independence has been accomodated as far as possible using CORAL 66 as the high level language throughout the entire system; the final run-time code being generated by a CORAL 66 compiler appropriate to the target processor.

The design of robust protocols for distributed real-time systems

Modern distributed control systems comprise of a set of processors which are interconnected using a suitable communication network. For use in real-time control environments, such systems must be deterministic and generate specified responses within critical timing constraints. Also, they should be sufficiently robust to survive predictable events such as communication or processor faults. This thesis considers the problem of coordinating and synchronizing a distributed real-time control system under normal and abnormal conditions. Distributed control systems need to periodically coordinate the actions of several autonomous sites. Often the type of coordination required is the all or nothing property of an atomic action. Atomic commit protocols have been used to achieve this atomicity in distributed database systems which are not subject to deadlines. This thesis addresses the problem of applying time constraints to atomic commit protocols so that decisions can be made within a deadline. A modified protocol is proposed which is suitable for real-time applications. The thesis also addresses the problem of ensuring that atomicity is provided even if processor or communication failures occur. Previous work has considered the design of atomic commit protocols for use in non time critical distributed database systems. However, in a distributed real-time control system a fault must not allow stringent timing constraints to be violated. This thesis proposes commit protocols using synchronous communications which can be made resilient to a single processor or communication failure and still satisfy deadlines. Previous formal models used to design commit protocols have had adequate state coverability but have omitted timing properties. They also assumed that sites communicated asynchronously and omitted the communications from the model. Timed Petri nets are used in this thesis to specify and design the proposed protocols which are analysed for consistency and timeliness. Also the communication system is mcxielled within the Petri net specifications so that communication failures can be included in the analysis. Analysis of the Timed Petri net and the associated reachability tree is used to show the proposed protocols always terminate consistently and satisfy timing constraints. Finally the applications of this work are described. Two different types of applications are considered, real-time databases and real-time control systems. It is shown that it may be advantageous to use synchronous communications in distributed database systems, especially if predictable response times are required. Emphasis is given to the application of the developed commit protocols to real-time control systems. Using the same analysis techniques as those used for the design of the protocols it can be shown that the overall system performs as expected both functionally and temporally.

The development of hard real-time systems using a formal approach

Hard real-time systems are a class of computer control systems that must react to demands of their environment by providing `correct' and timely responses. Since these systems are increasingly being used in systems with safety implications, it is crucial that they are designed and developed to operate in a correct manner. This thesis is concerned with developing formal techniques that allow the specification, verification and design of hard real-time systems. Formal techniques for hard real-time systems must be capable of capturing the system's functional and performance requirements, and previous work has proposed a number of techniques which range from the mathematically intensive to those with some mathematical content. This thesis develops formal techniques that contain both an informal and a formal component because it is considered that the informality provides ease of understanding and the formality allows precise specification and verification. Specifically, the combination of Petri nets and temporal logic is considered for the specification and verification of hard real-time systems. Approaches that combine Petri nets and temporal logic by allowing a consistent translation between each formalism are examined. Previously, such techniques have been applied to the formal analysis of concurrent systems. This thesis adapts these techniques for use in the modelling, design and formal analysis of hard real-time systems. The techniques are applied to the problem of specifying a controller for a high-speed manufacturing system. It is shown that they can be used to prove liveness and safety properties, including qualitative aspects of system performance. The problem of verifying quantitative real-time properties is addressed by developing a further technique which combines the formalisms of timed Petri nets and real-time temporal logic. A unifying feature of these techniques is the common temporal description of the Petri net. A common problem with Petri net based techniques is the complexity problems associated with generating the reachability graph. This thesis addresses this problem by using concurrency sets to generate a partial reachability graph pertaining to a particular state. These sets also allows each state to be checked for the presence of inconsistencies and hazards. The problem of designing a controller for the high-speed manufacturing system is also considered. The approach adopted mvolves the use of a model-based controller: This type of controller uses the Petri net models developed, thus preservIng the properties already proven of the controller. It. also contains a model of the physical system which is synchronised to the real application to provide timely responses. The various way of forming the synchronization between these processes is considered and the resulting nets are analysed using concurrency sets.

Computer control of machines utilising independent drive mechanisms

The thesis describes an investigation into methods for the specification, design and implementation of computer control systems for flexible manufacturing machines comprising multiple, independent, electromechanically-driven mechanisms. An analysis is made of the elements of conventional mechanically-coupled machines in order that the operational functions of these elements may be identified. This analysis is used to define the scope of requirements necessary to specify the format, function and operation of a flexible, independently driven mechanism machine. A discussion of how this type of machine can accommodate modern manufacturing needs of high-speed and flexibility is presented. A sequential method of capturing requirements for such machines is detailed based on a hierarchical partitioning of machine requirements from product to independent drive mechanism. A classification of mechanisms using notations, including Data flow diagrams and Petri-nets, is described which supports capture and allows validation of requirements. A generic design for a modular, IDM machine controller is derived based upon hierarchy of control identified in these machines. A two mechanism experimental machine is detailed which is used to demonstrate the application of the specification, design and implementation techniques. A computer controller prototype and a fully flexible implementation for the IDM machine, based on Petri-net models described using the concurrent programming language Occam, is detailed. The ability of this modular computer controller to support flexible, safe and fault-tolerant operation of the two intermittent motion, discrete-synchronisation independent drive mechanisms is presented. The application of the machine development methodology to industrial projects is established.

CONNECT challenges: towards emergent connectors for eternal networked systems

The CONNECT European project that started in February 2009 aims at dropping the interoperability barrier faced by today’s distributed systems. It does so by adopting a revolutionary approach to the seamless networking of digital systems, that is, synthesizing on the fly the connectors via which networked systems communicate.

Run-time connector synthesis for autonomic systems of systems

A key objective of autonomic computing is to reduce the cost and expertise required for the management of complex IT systems. As a growing number of these systems are implemented as hierarchies or federations of lower-level systems, techniques that support the development of autonomic systems of systems are required. This article introduces one such technique, which involves the run-time synthesis of autonomic system connectors. These connectors are specified by means of a new type of autonomic computing policy termed a resource definition policy, and enable the dynamic realisation of collections of collaborating autonomic systems, as envisaged by the original vision of autonomic computing. We propose a framework for the formal specification of autonomic computing policies, and use it to define the new policy type and to describe its application to the development of autonomic system of systems. To validate the approach, we present a sample data-centre application that was built using connectors synthesised from resource-definition policies.

The development of a new compiler-compiler front-end

The increasing cost of developing complex software systems has created a need for tools which aid software construction. One area in which significant progress has been made is with the so-called Compiler Writing Tools (CWTs); these aim at automated generation of various components of a compiler and hence at expediting the construction of complete programming language translators. A number of CWTs are already in quite general use, but investigation reveals significant drawbacks with current CWTs, such as lex and yacc. The effective use of a CWT typically requires a detailed technical understanding of its operation and involves tedious and error-prone input preparation. Moreover, CWTs such as lex and yacc address only a limited aspect of the compilation process; for example, actions necessary to perform lexical symbol valuation and abstract syntax tree construction must be explicitly coded by the user. This thesis presents a new CWT called CORGI (COmpiler-compiler from Reference Grammar Input) which deals with the entire `front-end' component of a compiler; this includes the provision of necessary data structures and routines to manipulate them, both generated from a single input specification. Compared with earlier CWTs, CORGI has a higher-level and hence more convenient user interface, operating on a specification derived directly from a `reference manual' grammar for the source language. Rather than developing a compiler-compiler from first principles, CORGI has been implemented by building a further shell around two existing compiler construction tools, namely lex and yacc. CORGI has been demonstrated to perform efficiently in realistic tests, both in terms of speed and the effectiveness of its user interface and error-recovery mechanisms.

The realisation of JSD specifications in object oriented languages

Jackson System Development (JSD) is an operational software development method which addresses most of the software lifecycle either directly or by providing a framework into which more specialised techniques can fit. The method has two major phases: first an abstract specification is derived that is in principle executable; second the specification is implemented using a variety of transformations. The object oriented paradigm is based on data abstraction and encapsulation coupled to an inheritance architecture that is able to support software reuse. Its claims of improved programmer productivity and easier program maintenance make it an important technology to be considered for building complex software systems. The mapping of JSD specifications into procedural languages typified by Cobol, Ada, etc., involves techniques such as inversion and state vector separation to produce executable systems of acceptable performance. However, at present, no strategy exists to map JSD specifications into object oriented languages. The aim of this research is to investigate the relationship between JSD and the object oriented paradigm, and to identify and implement transformations capable of mapping JSD specifications into an object oriented language typified by Smalltalk-80. The direction which the transformational strategy follows is one whereby the concurrency of a specification is removed. Two approaches implementing inversion - an architectural transformation resulting in a simulated coroutine mechanism being generated - are described in detail. The first approach directly realises inversions by manipulating Smalltalk-80 system contexts. This is possible in Smalltalk-80 because contexts are first class objects and are accessible to the user like any other system object. However, problems associated with this approach are expounded. The second approach realises coroutine-like behaviour in a structure called a `followmap'. A followmap is the results of a transformation on a JSD process in which a collection of followsets is generated. Each followset represents all possible state transitions a process can undergo from the current state of the process. Followsets, together with exploitation of the class/instance mechanism for implementing state vector separation, form the basis for mapping JSD specifications into Smalltalk-80. A tool, which is also built in Smalltalk-80, supports these derived transformations and enables a user to generate Smalltalk-80 prototypes of JSD specifications.