How well do we understand and evaluate climate change feedback processes?

Processes in the climate system that can either amplify or dampen the climate response to an external perturbation are referred to as climate feedbacks. Climate sensitivity estimates depend critically on radiative feedbacks associated with water vapor, lapse rate, clouds, snow, and sea ice, and global estimates of these feedbacks differ among general circulation models. By reviewing recent observational, numerical, and theoretical studies, this paper shows that there has been progress since the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in (i) the understanding of the physical mechanisms involved in these feedbacks, (ii) the interpretation of intermodel differences in global estimates of these feedbacks, and (iii) the development of methodologies of evaluation of these feedbacks (or of some components) using observations. This suggests that continuing developments in climate feedback research will progressively help make it possible to constrain the GCMs’ range of climate feedbacks and climate sensitivity through an ensemble of diagnostics based on physical understanding and observations.

Understanding the processes governing climate variability and change, climate predictability and the probability of extreme events

The purpose of Research Theme 4 (RT4) was to advance understanding of the basic science issues at the heart of the ENSEMBLES project, focusing on the key processes that govern climate variability and change, and that determine the predictability of climate. Particular attention was given to understanding linear and non-linear feedbacks that may lead to climate surprises,and to understanding the factors that govern the probability of extreme events. Improved understanding of these issues will contribute significantly to the quantification and reduction of uncertainty in seasonal to decadal predictions and projections of climate change. RT4 exploited the ENSEMBLES integrations (stream 1) performed in RT2A as well as undertaking its own experimentation to explore key processes within the climate system. It was working at the cutting edge of problems related to climate feedbacks, the interaction between climate variability and climate change � especially how climate change pertains to extreme events, and the predictability of the climate system on a range of time-scales. The statisticalmethodologies developed for extreme event analysis are new and state-of-the-art. The RT4-coordinated experiments, which have been conducted with six different atmospheric GCMs forced by common timeinvariant sea surface temperature (SST) and sea-ice fields (removing some sources of inter-model variability), are designed to help to understand model uncertainty (rather than scenario or initial condition uncertainty) in predictions of the response to greenhouse-gas-induced warming. RT4 links strongly with RT5 on the evaluation of the ENSEMBLES prediction system and feeds back its results to RT1 to guide improvements in the Earth system models and, through its research on predictability, to steer the development of methods for initialising the ensembles

Modelling climate change: the role of unresolved processes

Our understanding of the climate system has been revolutionized recently, by the development of sophisticated computer models. The predictions of such models are used to formulate international protocols, intended to mitigate the severity of global warming and its impacts. Yet, these models are not perfect representations of reality, because they remove from explicit consideration many physical processes which are known to be key aspects of the climate system, but which are too small or fast to be modelled. The purpose of this paper is to give a personal perspective of the current state of knowledge regarding the problem of unresolved scales in climate models. A recent novel solution to the problem is discussed, in which it is proposed, somewhat counter-intuitively, that the performance of models may be improved by adding random noise to represent the unresolved processes.

Surface wave processes in air-sea interaction

We review briefly recent progress on understanding the role of surface waves on the marine atmospheric boundary layer and the ocean mixed layer and give a global perspective on these processes by analysing ERA-40 data. Ocean surface waves interact with the marine atmospheric boundary layer in two broad regimes: (i) the conventional wind-driven wave regime, when fast winds blow over slower moving waves, and (ii) a wave-driven wind regime when long wavelength swell propagates under low winds, and generates a wave-driven jet in the lower part of the marine boundary layer. Analysis of ERA-40 data indicates that the wave-driven wind regime is as prevalent as the conventional wind-driven regime. Ocean surface waves also change profoundly mixing in the ocean mixed layer through generation of Langmuir circulation. Results from large-eddy simulation are used here to develop a scaling for the resulting Langmuir turbulence, which is a necessary step in developing a parametrization of the process. ERA-40 data is then used to show that the Langmuir regime is the predominant regime over much of the global ocean, providing a compelling motivation for parameterising this process in ocean general circulation models.

The impact of moist processes on the African easterly jet-African easterly wave system

The African Easterly Jet-Easterly Wave (AEJ-AEW) system was explored in an idealised model. Prescribed zonally symmetric surface temperature and moisture profiles determine the AEJ which becomes established through meridional contrasts in dry and moist convection.As in previous studies, a realistic AEJ developed with only dry convection. Including moist processes, increased its development rate, but reduced its speed and meridional extent. AEWs grew through barotropic-baroclinic conversions. Negative meridional potential vorticity (PV) gradients arose in the zonally symmetric state through the intrusion of the low-PV Saharan boundary layer. Since moist processes strengthened this significantly through diabatically generated PV in the Intertropical Convergence Zone, moist AEWs were three times stronger. Larger barotropic conversions and faster AEJ development increased the moist wave growth-rate. Jet-level and northerly low-level amplitudes grew, but in the moist case the low-level amplitudes weakened as the AEW interacted with convection, consistent with their absence from observations during the peak monsoon. Striking dependencies between the AEJ, AEW and rainfall existed. Two time-scales governed their evolution, depending on the transfer coefficients: (1) the AEJ's replenishment rate influenced by heat fluxes, and (2) the wave growth-rate, by damping, and the slower jet development rate.Moist AEWs were characterized by intermittent growth/decay, with growth preceded by increased mean rainfall and later, weakening AEJs. These dependencies established an internal 8-10-day variability, consistent with intra-seasonal observations of 9-day rainy sequences. This internal variability offers an alternative explanation to the previously proposed external forcing and a new view of the moist AEW life cycle. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

Abrasion control on dune colour: Muleshoe Dunes, SW USA

The Muleshoe Dunes, an east-west trending dunefield on the border separating Texas and New Mexico, consist of two distinct components: a white (carbonate rich) component and an overlying pink (quartz rich) component. The pink component exhibits significant spatial variation in redness. The reddest sands, in the western part of the dunefield, decrease in redness towards the east. This gradient is thought to result from abrasion of all iron-rich, red clay coating as the sediments were transported eastward by Late Quaternary aeolian processes. The effects of aeolian abrasion on the spectral signature and surface texture of the sediments were examined using laboratory abrasion experiments. Changes in spectral reflectance of abrasion samples from the laboratory were compared to field samples that were abraded naturally because of sediment transport. The changes resulting from increased time of abrasion are similar to those observed with increased distance downwind in the dunefield. These results suggest that downwind abrasion can explain the pattern of dune colour in the Muleshoe Dunes, although this does not preclude other possible causes. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spectral properties, iron oxide content and provenance of Namib dune sands

This paper applies multispectral remote sensing techniques to map the Fe-oxide content over the entire Namib sand sea. Spectrometric analysis is applied to field samples to identify the reflectance properties of the dune sands which enable remotely sensed Fe-oxide mapping. The results indicate that the pattern of dune colour in the Namib sand sea arises from the mixing of at least two distinct sources of sand; a red component of high Fe-oxide content (present as a coating on the sand grains) which derives from the inland regions, particularly from major embayments into the Southern African escarpment; and a yellow coastal component of low Fe-oxide content which is brought into the area by northward-moving aeolian transport processes. These major provenances are separated by a mixing zone between 20 kin and 90 kin from the coast throughout the entire length of the sand sea. Previous workers have also recognised a third, fluvial, provenance, but the methodology applied here is not able to map this source as a distinct spectral component. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A geomatics-based approach for the derivation of the spatial distribution of sediment transport processes in periglacial mountain environments

Within this paper modern techniques such as satellite image analysis and tools provided by geographic information systems (GIS.) are exploited in order to extend and improve existing techniques for mapping the spatial distribution of sediment transport processes. The processes of interest comprise mass movements such as solifluction, slope wash, dirty avalanches and rock- and boulder falls. They differ considerably in nature and therefore different approaches for the derivation of their spatial extent are required. A major challenge is addressing the differences between the comparably coarse resolution of the available satellite data (Landsat TM/ETM+, 30 in x 30 m) and the actual scale of sediment transport in this environment. A three-stepped approach has been developed which is based on the concept of Geomorphic Process Units (GPUs): parameterization, process area delineation and combination. Parameters include land cover from satellite data and digital elevation model derivatives. Process areas are identified using a hierarchical classification scheme utilizing thresholds and definition of topology. The approach has been developed for the Karkevagge in Sweden and could be successfully transferred to the Rabotsbekken catchment at Okstindan, Norway using similar input data. Copyright (C) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Quantifying sediment transport processes in periglacial mountain environments at a catchment scale using geomorphic process units

The research record on the quantification of sediment transport processes in periglacial mountain environments in Scandimvia dates back to the 1950s. A wide range of measurements is. available, especially from the Karkevagge region of northern Sweden. Within this paper satellite image analysis and tools provided by geographic information systems (GIS) are exploited in order to extend and improve this research and to complement geophysical methods. The processes of interest include mass movements such as solifluction, slope wash, dirty avalanches and rock-and boulder falls. Geomorphic process units have been derived in order to allow quantification via GIS techniques at a catchment scale. Mass movement rates based on existing Field measurements are employed in the budget calculation. In the Karkevagge catch ment. 80% of the area can be identified either as a source area for sediments or as a zone where sediments are deposited. The overall budget for the slopes beneath the rockwalls in the Karkevagge is approximately 680 t a(-1) whilst about 150 : a-1 are transported into the fluvial System.

Mapping the spatial distribution of geomorphological processes in the Okstindan area of northern Norway, using Geomorphic Process Units as derived from remote sensing and ground survey

The delineation of Geomorphic Process Units (GPUs) aims to quantify past, current and future geomorphological processes and the sediment flux associated with them. Five GPUs have been identified for the Okstindan area of northern Norway and these were derived from the combination of Landsat satellite imagery (TM and ETM+) with stereo aerial photographs (used to construct a Digital Elevation Model) and ground survey. The Okstindan study area is sub-arctic and mountainous and is dominated by glacial and periglacial processes. The GPUs exclude the glacial system (some 37% of the study area) and hence they are focussed upon periglacial and colluvial processes. The identified GPUs are: 1. solifluction and rill erosion; 2. talus creep, slope wash and rill erosion; 3. accumulation of debris by rock and boulder fall; 4. rockwalls; and 5. stable ground with dissolved transport. The GPUs have been applied to a ‘test site’ within the study area in order to illustrate their potential for mapping the spatial distribution of geomorphological processes. The test site within the study area is a catchment which is representative of the range of geomorphological processes identified.

Mineralised organic remains from cesspits at the Roman town of Silchester: Processes and preservation

Mineralised organic remains (including apple pips and cereal grains) collected during the ongoing excavations of Insula IX at the Roman town of Silchester, Hampshire have been analysed by a combination of SEM-EDX, powder XRD and IR spectroscopy. The experiments included mapping experiments using spatially resolved versions of each technique. IR and powder XRD mapping have been carried out utilising the synchrotron source at The Daresbury Laboratory oil stations 11.1 and 9.6. It is concluded that these samples are preserved by rapid mineralisation in the carbonate-substituted calcium phosphate mineral, dahllite. The rapid mineralisation leads to excellent preservation of the samples and a small crystal size. The value of IR spectroscopy in studying materials like this where the crystal size is small is demonstrated. A comparison is made between the excellent preservation seen in this context and the much poorer preservation of mineralised remains seen in Context 5276 or Cesspit 5251. Comments on the possible mechanism of mineralisation of these samples are made. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V.. All rights reserved.

Abrasion control on dune colour: Muleshoe Dunes, SW USA

The Muleshoe Dunes, an east-west trending dunefield on the border separating Texas and New Mexico, consist of two distinct components: a white (carbonate rich) component and an overlying pink (quartz rich) component. The pink component exhibits significant spatial variation in redness. The reddest sands, in the western part of the dunefield, decrease in redness towards the east. This gradient is thought to result from abrasion of all iron-rich, red clay coating as the sediments were transported eastward by Late Quaternary aeolian processes. The effects of aeolian abrasion on the spectral signature and surface texture of the sediments were examined using laboratory abrasion experiments. Changes in spectral reflectance of abrasion samples from the laboratory were compared to field samples that were abraded naturally because of sediment transport. The changes resulting from increased time of abrasion are similar to those observed with increased distance downwind in the dunefield. These results suggest that downwind abrasion can explain the pattern of dune colour in the Muleshoe Dunes, although this does not preclude other possible causes. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spectral properties, iron oxide content and provenance of Namib dune sands

This paper applies multispectral remote sensing techniques to map the Fe-oxide content over the entire Namib sand sea. Spectrometric analysis is applied to field samples to identify the reflectance properties of the dune sands which enable remotely sensed Fe-oxide mapping. The results indicate that the pattern of dune colour in the Namib sand sea arises from the mixing of at least two distinct sources of sand; a red component of high Fe-oxide content (present as a coating on the sand grains) which derives from the inland regions, particularly from major embayments into the Southern African escarpment; and a yellow coastal component of low Fe-oxide content which is brought into the area by northward-moving aeolian transport processes. These major provenances are separated by a mixing zone between 20 kin and 90 kin from the coast throughout the entire length of the sand sea. Previous workers have also recognised a third, fluvial, provenance, but the methodology applied here is not able to map this source as a distinct spectral component. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.