Guidelines on how to assess the validity of results presented in subgroup analysis of clinical trials

In observational studies, identification of associations within particular subgroups is the usual method of investigation. As an exploratory method, it is the bread and butter of epidemiological research. Nearly everything that has been learned in epidemiology has been derived from the analysis of subgroups. In a randomized clinical trial, the entire purpose is the comparison of the test subjects and the controls, and when there is particular interest in the results of treatment in a certain section of trial participants, a subgroup analysis is performed. These subgroups are examined to see if they are liable to a greater benefit or risk from treatment. Thus, analyzing patient subsets is a natural part of the process of improving therapeutic knowledge through clinical trials. Nevertheless, the reliability of subgroup analysis can often be poor because of problems of multiplicity and limitations in the numbers of patients studied. The naive interpretation of the results of such examinations is a cause of great confusion in the therapeutic literature. We emphasize the need for readers to be aware that inferences based on comparisons between subgroups in randomized clinical trials should be approached more cautiously than those based on the main comparison. That is, subgroup analysis results derived from a sound clinical trial are not necessarily valid; one must not jump to conclusions and accept the validity of subgroup analysis results without an appropriate judgment.

Behavior of inflammatory markers of myocardial injury in cardiac surgery: laboratory correlation with the clinical picture of postpericardiotomy syndrome

OBJECTIVE: To verify the association of serum markers of myocardial injury, such as troponin I, creatinine kinase, and creatinine kinase isoenzyme MB, and inflammatory markers, such as tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-alpha), C-reactive protein, and the erythrocyte sedimentation rate in the perioperative period of cardiac surgery, with the occurrence of possible postpericardiotomy syndrome. METHODS: This was a cohort study with 96 patients undergoing cardiac surgery assessed at the following 4 different time periods: the day before surgery (D0); the 3rd postoperative day (D3); between the 7th and 10th postoperative days (D7-10); and the 30th postoperative day (D30). During each period, we evaluated demographic variables (sex and age), surgical variables (type and duration , extracorporeal circulation), and serum dosages of the markers of myocardial injury and inflammatory response. RESULTS: Of all patients, 12 (12.5%) met the clinical criteria for a diagnosis of postpericardiotomy syndrome, and their mean age was 10.3 years lower than the age of the others (P=0.02). The results of the serum markers for tissue injury and inflammatory response were not significantly different between the 2 assessed groups. No significant difference existed regarding either surgery duration or extracorporeal circulation. CONCLUSION: The patients who met the clinical criteria for postpericardiotomy syndrome were significantly younger than the others were. Serum markers for tissue injury and inflammatory response were not different in the clinically affected group, and did not correlate with the different types and duration of surgery or with extracorporeal circulation.

Analysis Treatment Guideline versus Clinical Practice Protocol in Patients Hospitalized due to Heart Failure

Background: Despite the availability of guidelines for treatment of heart failure (HF), only a few studies have assessed how hospitals adhere to the recommended therapies. Objectives: Compare the rates of adherence to the prescription of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or angiotensin II receptor blockers (ACEI/ARB) at hospital discharge, which is considered a quality indicator by the Joint Commission International, and to the prescription of beta-blockers at hospital discharge, which is recommended by national and international guidelines, in a hospital with a case management program to supervise the implementation of a clinical practice protocol (HCP) and another hospital that follows treatment guidelines (HCG). Methods: Prospective observational study that evaluated patients consecutively admitted to both hospitals due to decompensated HF between August 1st, 2006, and December 31st, 2008. We used as comparing parameters the prescription rates of beta-blockers and ACEI/ARB at hospital discharge and in-hospital mortality. Results: We analyzed 1,052 patients (30% female, mean age 70.6 ± 14.1 years), 381 (36%) of whom were seen at HCG and 781 (64%) at HCP. The prescription rates of beta-blockers at discharge at HCG and HCP were both 69% (p = 0.458), whereas those of ACEI/ARB were 83% and 86%, respectively (p = 0.162). In-hospital mortality rates were 16.5% at HCP and 27.8% at HCG (p < 0.001). Conclusion: There was no difference in prescription rates of beta-blocker and ACEI/ARB at hospital discharge between the institutions, but HCP had lower in-hospital mortality. This difference in mortality may be attributed to different clinical characteristics of the patients in both hospitals.

Competition with forward contracts: a laboratory analysis motivated by electricity market design

We use experiments to study the efficiency effects for a market as a whole of adding the possibility of forward contracting to a pre-existing spot market. We deal separately with the cases where spot market competition is in quantities and where it is in supply functions. In both cases we compare the effect of adding a contract market with the introduction of an additional competitor, changing the market structure from a triopoly to a quadropoly. We find that, as theory suggests, for both types of competition the introduction of a forward market significantly lowers prices. The combination of supply function competition with a forward market leads to high efficiency levels.

Bidding at sequential first-price auctions with(out) supply uncertainty: a laboratory analysis

We report on a series of experiments that test the effects of an uncertain supply on the formation of bids and prices in sequential first-price auctions with private-independent values and unit-demands. Supply is assumed uncertain when buyers do not know the exact number of units to be sold (i.e., the length of the sequence). Although we observe a non-monotone behavior when supply is certain and an important overbidding, the data qualitatively support our price trend predictions and the risk neutral Nash equilibrium model of bidding for the last stage of a sequence, whether supply is certain or not. Our study shows that behavior in these markets changes significantly with the presence of an uncertain supply, and that it can be explained by assuming that bidders formulate pessimistic beliefs about the occurrence of another stage.

Price competition under cost uncertainty: A laboratory analysis

We study the relation between the number of firms and price-cost margins under price competition with uncertainty about competitors' costs. We present results of an experiment in which two, three and four identical firms repeatedly interact in this environment. In line with the theoretical prediction, market prices decrease with the number of firms, but on average stay above marginal costs. Pricing is less aggressive in duopolies than in triopolies and tetrapolies. However, independently from the number of firms, pricing is more aggressive than in the theoretical equilibrium. Both the absolute and the relative surpluses increase with the number of firms. Total surplus is close to the equilibrium level, since enhanced consumer surplus through lower prices is counteracted by occasional displacements of the most efficient firm in production.

Congenital heart disease in pregnancies complicated by maternal diabetes mellitus. An international clinical collaboration, literature review, and meta-analysis.

PURPOSE: Investigation of the incidence and distribution of congenital structural cardiac malformations among the offspring of mothers with diabetes type 1 and of the influence of periconceptional glycemic control. METHODS: Multicenter retrospective clinical study, literature review, and meta-analysis. The incidence and pattern of congenital heart disease in the own study population and in the literature on the offspring of type 1 diabetic mothers were compared with the incidence and spectrum of the various cardiovascular defects in the offspring of nondiabetic mothers as registered by EUROCAT Northern Netherlands. Medical records were, in addition, reviewed for HbA(1c) during the 1st trimester. RESULTS: The distribution of congenital heart anomalies in the own diabetic study population was in accordance with the distribution encountered in the literature. This distribution differed considerably from that in the nondiabetic population. Approximately half the cardiovascular defects were conotruncal anomalies. The authors' study demonstrated a remarkable increase in the likelihood of visceral heterotaxia and variants of single ventricle among these patients. As expected, elevated HbA(1c) values during the 1st trimester were associated with offspring fetal cardiovascular defects. CONCLUSION: This study shows an increased likelihood of specific heart anomalies, namely transposition of the great arteries, persistent truncus arteriosus, visceral heterotaxia and single ventricle, among offspring of diabetic mothers. This suggests a profound teratogenic effect at a very early stage in cardiogenesis. The study emphasizes the frequency with which the offspring of diabetes-complicated pregnancies suffer from complex forms of congenital heart disease. Pregnancies with poor 1st-trimester glycemic control are more prone to the presence of fetal heart disease.

Molecular detection and identification of zygomycetes species from paraffin-embedded tissues in a murine model of disseminated zygomycosis: a collaborative European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases (ESCMID) Fungal Infection Study Group (EFISG) evaluation.

The present study was performed to assess the interlaboratory reproducibility of the molecular detection and identification of species of Zygomycetes from formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded kidney and brain tissues obtained from experimentally infected mice. Animals were infected with one of five species (Rhizopus oryzae, Rhizopus microsporus, Lichtheimia corymbifera, Rhizomucor pusillus, and Mucor circinelloides). Samples with 1, 10, or 30 slide cuts of the tissues were prepared from each paraffin block, the sample identities were blinded for analysis, and the samples were mailed to each of seven laboratories for the assessment of sensitivity. A protocol describing the extraction method and the PCR amplification procedure was provided. The internal transcribed spacer 1 (ITS1) region was amplified by PCR with the fungal universal primers ITS1 and ITS2 and sequenced. As negative results were obtained for 93% of the tissue specimens infected by M. circinelloides, the data for this species were excluded from the analysis. Positive PCR results were obtained for 93% (52/56), 89% (50/56), and 27% (15/56) of the samples with 30, 10, and 1 slide cuts, respectively. There were minor differences, depending on the organ tissue, fungal species, and laboratory. Correct species identification was possible for 100% (30 cuts), 98% (10 cuts), and 93% (1 cut) of the cases. With the protocol used in the present study, the interlaboratory reproducibility of ITS sequencing for the identification of major Zygomycetes species from formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tissues can reach 100%, when enough material is available.

Respiratory viruses in lung transplant recipients: a critical review and pooled analysis of clinical studies.

Lung transplant recipients present an increased risk for severe complications associated with respiratory infections. We conducted a review of the literature examining the clinical relationship between viral respiratory infection and graft complications. Thirty-four studies describing the clinical impact of influenza, respiratory syncytial virus, parainfluenza, human metapneumovirus, rhinovirus, enterovirus, coronavirus, bocavirus or adenovirus were identified. The detection rate of respiratory viral infection ranged from 1.4% to 60%. Viruses were detected five times more frequently when respiratory symptoms were present [odds ratio (OR) = 4.97; 95% CI = 2.11-11.68]. Based on available observations, we could not observe an association between respiratory viral infection and acute rejection (OR = 1.35; 95% CI = 0.41-4.43). We found a pooled incidence of 18% (9/50) of bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome (BOS) in virus-positive cases compared to 11.6% (37/319) in virus-negative cases; however, limited number of BOS events did not allow to confirm the association. Our review confirms a causal relationship between respiratory viruses and respiratory symptoms, but cannot confirm a link between respiratory viruses and acute lung rejection. This is related in part to the heterogeneity and limitations of available studies. The link with BOS needs also to be reassessed in appropriate prospective studies.

Can the trabecular bone score be considered as a major clinical risk factor of osteoporotic fractures? A meta-like analysis.

To have an added value over BMD, a CRF of osteoporotic fracture must be predictable of the fracture, independent of BMD, reversible and quantifiable. Many major recognized CRF exist. Out of these factors many of them are indirect factor of bone quality. TBS predicts fracture independently of BMD as demonstrated from previous studies. The aim of the study is to verify if TBS can be considered as a major CRF of osteoporotic fracture. Existing validated datasets of Caucasian women were analyzed. These datasets stem from different studies performed by the authors of this report or provided to our group. However, the level of evidence of these studies will vary. Thus, the different datasets were weighted differently according to their design. This meta-like analysis involves more than 32000 women (≥50years) with 2000 osteoporotic fractures from two prospective studies (OFELY&MANITOBA) and 7 cross-sectional studies. Weighted relative risk (RR) for TBS was expressed for each decrease of one standard deviation as well as per tertile difference (TBS=1.300 and 1.200) and compared with those obtained for the major CRF included in FRAX®. Overall TBS RR obtained (adjusted for age) was 1.79 [95%CI-1.37-2.37]. For all women combined, RR for fracture for the lowest compared with the middle TBS tertile was 1.55[1.46-1.68] and for the lowest compared with the highest TBS tertile was 2.8[2.70-3.00]. TBS is comparable to most of the major CRF and thus could be used as one of them. Further studies have to be conducted to confirm these first findings.

Marginal adaptation in vitro and clinical outcome of Class V restorations

OBJECTIVES: We examined the correlation between the quantitative margin analysis of two laboratory test methods (Berlin, Zurich) and the clinical outcome in Class V restorations. METHODS: Prospective clinical studies with an observation period of at least 18 months were searched in the literature, for which laboratory data were also available. The clinical outcome variables were retention loss, marginal discoloration, detectable margins and secondary caries. Forty-four clinical studies matched the inclusion criteria, including 34 adhesive systems for which laboratory data were also present. For both laboratory test methods and the clinical studies, an index was formulated to better compare the in vitro and in vivo results. Linear mixed models which included a random study effect were calculated. As most clinical data were available for 12 and 24 months, the main analysis was restricted to these recall intervals. RESULTS: The comparative analysis revealed a weak correlation between the clinical index and both in vitro indices. The correlation was statistically significant for the Berlin method but not for the Zurich method and only present if studies were compared which used the same composite in the in vitro and in vivo study. When defining specific cut-off values, the prognosis for the good clinical performance of an adhesive system based on in vitro results was 78% (Berlin) or 100% (Zurich). For poor performance it was 67% and 60%, respectively. No correlation was found between both in vitro methods. SIGNIFICANCE: The surrogate parameter "marginal adaptation" of restorations placed in extracted teeth has a mediocre value to predict the clinical performance of an adhesive system in cervical cavities. The composite is an important factor for a successful prediction. The comparison between in vitro/in vivo is sometimes hampered by the great variability of clinical results on the same adhesive system.

Analysis of Respiratory Syncytial Virus in Clinical Samples by Reverse Transcriptase-Polymerase Chain Reaction Restriction Mapping

The aim of this study was to develop a polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for the detection of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) genomes. The primers were designed from published sequences and selected from conserved regions of the genome encoding for the N protein of subgroups A and B of RSV. PCR was applied to 20 specimens from children admitted to the respiratory ward of "William Soler" Pediatric Hospital in Havana City with a clinical diagnosis of bronchiolitis. The PCR was compared with viral isolation and with an indirect immunofluorescence technique that employs monoclonal antibodies of subgroups A and B. Of 20 nasopharyngeal exudates, 10 were found positive by the three assayed methods. In only two cases, samples that yielded positive RNA-PCR were found negative by indirect immunofluorescence and cell culture. Considering viral isolation as the "gold standard" technique, RNA-PCR had 100% sensitivity and 80% specificity. RNA-PCR is a specific and sensitive technique for the detection of the RSV genome. Technical advantages are discussed

Morphometric Analysis of McCoy Cells Inoculated with Cerebrospinal Fluid from Patients with Rabies

To demonstrate the potential of McCoy cells for the isolation of rabies virus from the cerebrospinal (CSF) fluid of a patient with a diagnosis of rabies, McCoy cells were inoculated with CSF from a patient with a clinical diagnosis of rabies and investigated in terms of morphometric aspect using the JAVA analysis system for the quantification of the increased size of infected cells compared to noninfected cells. The cells were also examined in terms of specific staining for the diagnosis of rabies by the method of Sellers for the observation of intracytoplasmic inclusions and by specific immunofluorescence staining for rabies virus. Infected cells showed changes in cell permeability and morphologic modifications which differed significantly compared to normal cells (P<0.001) when analyzed by the Mann-Whitney and Kruskal-Wallis tests. Intense activity of the endoplasmic reticulum was also observed, as indicated by the presence of intracytoplasmic inclusions visualized by specific staining. The present study demonstrated the isolation of rabies virus from the CSF of a patient with rabies, showing that McCoy cells can be used for the laboratory diagnosis of patients suspected to have rabies.

Identification of Mycobacteria by Thin Layer Chromatographic Analysis of Mycolic Acids and Conventional Biochemical Method: Four Years of Experience

Mycolic acids analysis by thin-layer chromatography (TLC) has been employed by several laboratories worldwide as a method for fast identification of mycobacteria. This method was introduced in Brazil by our laboratory in 1992 as a routine identification technique. Up to the present, 861 strains isolated were identified by mycolic acids TLC and by standard biochemical tests; 61% out of these strains came as clinical samples, 4% isolated from frogs and 35% as environmental samples. Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains identified by classical methods were confirmed by their mycolic acids contents (I, III and IV). The method allowed earlier differentiation of M. avium complex - MAC (mycolic acids I, IV and VI) from M. simiae (acids I, II and IV), both with similar biochemical properties. The method also permitted to distinguish M. fortuitum (acids I and V) from M. chelonae (acids I and II) , and to detect mixed mycobacterial infections cases as M. tuberculosis with MAC and M. fortuitum with MAC. Concluding, four years experience shows that mycolic acids TLC is an easy, reliable, fast and inexpensive method, an important tool to put together conventional mycobacteria identification methods.