Effects of interdecadal climate variability on the oceanic ecosystems of the northeast Pacific Ocean [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): It is increasingly apparent that a major reorganization of the Northeast Pacific biota transpired following a climatic "regime shift" in the mid-1970s. In this paper, we characterize the effects of interdecadal climate forcing on the oceanic ecosystems of the northeastern Pacific Ocean.

Tree-ring reconstructions of winter climate and circulation indices for the southwestern United States

A key to understanding the causes for climate variability lies in understanding how atmospheric circulation influences regional climate. The goal of this research is to investigate the long-term relationships between atmospheric circulation and winter climate in the southwestern United States. Patterns of atmospheric circulation are described by circulation indices, and winter climate is defined as number of days with precipitation and mean maximum temperature for the winter wet season, November through March. Records of both circulation indices and climate variables were reconstructed with tree-ring chronologies for the period 1702-1983. The years of the highest and lowest values of circulation indices and climate variables were compared in order to investigate possible spatial and temporal relationships between extremes in circulation and climate.

History and variability of Asian interior aridity recorded by eolian flux in the Chinese Loess Plateau during the past 7 Ma

Eolian flux in the Chinese Loess Plateau was reconstructed by measuring the dry bulk density and CaCO3 content of the late Cenozoic loess-paleosol-red clay sequences in the Lingtai profile. Comparison of eolian flux variation between the Lingtai profile and the ODP sites 885/886 in the North Pacific shows a significant wet-dry variability in addition to a gradual drying trend in the dust source regions in interior Asia. Especially, the increase of eolian fluxes from both continental and pelagic eolian sediments indicates a sharp drying of the dust source regions between 3.6 and 2.6 MaBP, which might be attributed to the tectonic uplift of the Tibetan Plateau, which cut down the moisture input to the interior Asia. The average value and variability of eolian flux are higher after 2.6 MaBP than before, which may be related to the Quaternary climatic fluctuations on the glacial-interglacial timescale after the commencement of major Northern Hemisphere Glaciations. The eolian fluxes of the Lingtai profile and Core V21-146 in northwest Pacific show a synchronous variation on the 10(4)-10(5) a timescale, indicating that the flux variations from both continental and marine records are closely correlated to the Quaternary climatic fluctuation forced by the ice volume changes on a global scale.

Dynamics of intraseasonal sea level and thermocline variability in the equatorial Atlantic during 2002-03

Satellite and in situ observations in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean during 2002-03 show dominant spectral peaks at 40-60 days and secondary peaks at 10-40 days in sea level and thermocline within the intraseasonal period band (10-80 days). A detailed investigation of the dynamics of the intraseasonal variations is carried out using an ocean general circulation model, namely, the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM). Two parallel experiments are performed in the tropical Atlantic Ocean basin for the period 2000-03: one is forced by daily scatterometer winds from the Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) satellite together with other forcing fields, and the other is forced by the low-passed 80-day version of the above fields. To help in understanding the role played by the wind-driven equatorial waves, a linear continuously stratified ocean model is also used. Within 3 degrees S-3 degrees N of the equatorial region, the strong 40-60-day sea surface height anomaly (SSHA) and thermocline variability result mainly from the first and second baroclinic modes equatorial Kelvin waves that are forced by intraseasonal zonal winds, with the second baroclinic mode playing a more important role. Sharp 40-50-day peaks of zonal and meridional winds appear in both the QuikSCAT and Pilot Research Moored Array in the Tropical Atlantic (PIRATA) data for the period 2002-03, and they are especially strong in 2002. Zonal wind anomaly in the central-western equatorial basin for the period 2000-06 is significantly correlated with SSHA across the equatorial basin, with simultaneous/ lag correlation ranging from-0.62 to 0.74 above 95% significance. Away from the equator (3 degrees-5 degrees N), however, sea level and thermocline variations in the 40-60-day band are caused largely by tropical instability waves (TIWs). On 10-40-day time scales and west of 10 degrees W, the spectral power of sea level and thermocline appears to be dominated by TIWs within 5 degrees S-5 degrees N of the equatorial region. The wind-driven circulation, however, also provides a significant contribution. Interestingly, east of 10 W, SSHA and thermocline variations at 10 40- day periods result almost entirely from wind-driven equatorial waves. During the boreal spring of 2002 when TIWs are weak, Kelvin waves dominate the SSHA across the equatorial basin (2 degrees S-2 degrees N). The observed quasi-biweekly Yanai waves are excited mainly by the quasi-biweekly meridional winds, and they contribute significantly to the SSHA and thermocline variations in 1 degrees-5 degrees N and 1 degrees-5 degrees S regions.

IMPACTS OF THE TROPICAL PACIFIC COUPLED PROCESS ON THE INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY IN THE INDIAN OCEAN

The basic features of climatology and interannual variations of tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans were analyzed using a coupled general circulation model (CGCM), which was constituted with an intermediate 2.5-layer ocean model and atmosphere model ECHAM4. The CGCM well captures the spatial and temporal structure of the Pacific El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the variability features in the tropical Indian Ocean. The influence of Pacific air-sea coupled process on the Indian Ocean variability was investigated carefully by conducting numerical experiments. Results show that the occurrence frequency of positive/negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event will decrease/increase with the presence/absence of the coupled process in the Pacific Ocean. Further analysis demonstrated that the air-sea coupled process in the Pacific Ocean affects the IOD variability mainly by influencing the zonal gradient of thermocline via modulating the background sea surface wind.

Roles of equatorial waves and western boundary reflection in the seasonal circulation of the equatorial Indian Ocean

An ocean general circulation model (OGCM) is used to study the roles of equatorial waves and western boundary reflection in the seasonal circulation of the equatorial Indian Ocean. The western boundary reflection is defined as the total Kelvin waves leaving the western boundary, which include the reflection of the equatorial Rossby waves as well as the effects of alongshore winds, off-equatorial Rossby waves, and nonlinear processes near the western boundary. The evaluation of the reflection is based on a wave decomposition of the OGCM results and experiments with linear models. It is found that the alongshore winds along the east coast of Africa and the Rossby waves in the off-equatorial areas contribute significantly to the annual harmonics of the equatorial Kelvin waves at the western boundary. The semiannual harmonics of the Kelvin waves, on the other hand, originate primarily from a linear reflection of the equatorial Rossby waves. The dynamics of a dominant annual oscillation of sea level coexisting with the dominant semiannual oscillations of surface zonal currents in the central equatorial Indian Ocean are investigated. These sea level and zonal current patterns are found to be closely related to the linear reflections of the semiannual harmonics at the meridional boundaries. Because of the reflections, the second baroclinic mode resonates with the semiannual wind forcing; that is, the semiannual zonal currents carried by the reflected waves enhance the wind-forced currents at the central basin. Because of the different behavior of the zonal current and sea level during the reflections, the semiannual sea levels of the directly forced and reflected waves cancel each other significantly at the central basin. In the meantime, the annual harmonic of the sea level remains large, producing a dominant annual oscillation of sea level in the central equatorial Indian Ocean. The linear reflection causes the semiannual harmonics of the incoming and reflected sea levels to enhance each other at the meridional boundaries. In addition, the weak annual harmonics of sea level in the western basin, resulting from a combined effect of the western boundary reflection and the equatorial zonal wind forcing, facilitate the dominance by the semiannual harmonics near the western boundary despite the strong local wind forcing at the annual period. The Rossby waves are found to have a much larger contribution to the observed equatorial semiannual oscillations of surface zonal currents than the Kelvin waves. The westward progressive reversal of seasonal surface zonal currents along the equator in the observations is primarily due to the Rossby wave propagation.

Seasonal and interannual variability of primary and export production in the South China Sea: a three-dimensional physical-biogeochemical model study

To investigate the seasonal and interannual variations in biological productivity in the South China Sea (SCS), a Pacific basin-wide physical - biogeochemical model has been developed and used to estimate the biological productivity and export flux in the SCS. The Pacific circulation model, based on the Regional Ocean Model Systems (ROMS), is forced with daily air-sea fluxes derived from the NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) reanalysis between 1990 and 2004. The biogeochemical processes are simulated with a carbon, Si(OH)(4), and nitrogen ecosystem (CoSiNE) model consisting of silicate, nitrate, ammonium, two phytoplankton groups (small phytoplankton and large phytoplankton), two zooplankton grazers (small micrograzers and large mesozooplankton), and two detritus pools. The ROMS-CoSiNE model favourably reproduces many of the observed features, such as ChI a, nutrients, and primary production (PP) in the SCS. The modelled depth-integrated PP over the euphotic zone (0-125 m) varies seasonally, with the highest value of 386 mg C m (-2) d (-1) during winter and the lowest value of 156 mg C m (-2) d (-1) during early summer. The annual mean value is 196 mg C m (-2) d (-1). The model-integrated annual mean new production (uptake of nitrate), in carbon units, is 64.4 mg C m (-2) d (-1) which yields an f-ratio of 0.33 for the entire SCS. The modelled export ratio (e-ratio: the ratio of export to PP) is 0.24 for the basin-wide SCS. The year-to-year variation of biological productivity in the SCS is weaker than the seasonal variation. The large phytoplankton group tends to dominate over the smaller phytoplankton group, and likely plays an important role in determining the interannual variability of primary and new production.

Macroecological study of Centropages typicus in the North Atlantic Ocean

Centropages typicus is a temperate neritic-coastal species of the North Atlantic Oceans, generally found between the latitudes of the Mediterranean and the Norwegian Sea. Therefore, the species experiences a large number of environments and adjusts its life cycle in response to changes in key abiotic parameters such as temperature. Using data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) Survey, we review the macroecology of C. typicus and factors that influence its spatial distribution, phenology and year-to-year to decadal variability. The ecological preferences are identified and quantified. Mechanisms that allow the species to occur in such different environments are discussed and hypotheses are proposed as to how the species adapts to its environment. We show that temperature and both quantity and quality of phytoplankton are important factors explaining the space and time variability of C. typicus. These results show that C. typicus will not respond only to temperature increase in the region but also to changes in phytoplankton abundance, structure and composition and timing of occurrence. Methods such as a decision tree can help to forecast expected changes in the distribution of this species with hydro-climatic forcing. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Mediterranean Sea Regime Shift at the End of the 1980s, and Intriguing Parallelisms with Other European Basins

Regime shifts are abrupt changes encompassing a multitude of physical properties and ecosystem variables, which lead to new regime conditions. Recent investigations focus on the changes in ecosystem diversity and functioning associated to such shifts. Of particular interest, because of the implication on climate drivers, are shifts that occur synchronously in separated basins. In this work we analyze and review long-term records of Mediterranean ecological and hydro-climate variables and find that all point to a synchronous change in the late 1980s. A quantitative synthesis of the literature (including observed oceanic data, models and satellite analyses) shows that these years mark a major change in Mediterranean hydrographic properties, surface circulation, and deep water convection (the Eastern Mediterranean Transient). We provide novel analyses that link local, regional and basin scale hydrological properties with two major indicators of large scale climate, the North Atlantic Oscillation index and the Northern Hemisphere Temperature index, suggesting that the Mediterranean shift is part of a large scale change in the Northern Hemisphere. We provide a simplified scheme of the different effects of climate vs. temperature on pelagic ecosystems.

Spatial variability of marine climate change impacts in the North Atlantic

There is an accumulating body of evidence to suggest that many marine ecosystems in the North Atlantic, both physically and biologically are responding to changes in regional climate caused predominately by the warming of air and sea surface temperatures (SST) and to a varying degree by the modification of oceanic currents, precipitation regimes and wind patterns. The biological manifestations of rising SST and oceanographic changes have variously taken the form of biogeographical, phenological, physiological and community changes. For example, during the last 40 years there has been a northerly movement of warmer water plankton by 10 degree latitude in the north-east Atlantic and a similar retreat of colder water plankton to the north. This geographical movement is much more pronounced than any documented terrestrial study, presumably due to advective processes playing an important role. Other research has shown that the plankton community in the North Sea has responded to changes in SST by adjusting their seasonality (in some cases a shift in seasonal cycles of over six weeks has been detected), but more importantly the response to climate warming varied between different functional groups and trophic levels, leading to mismatch. Therefore, while it has been documented that marine ecosystems in certain regions of the Atlantic have undergone some conspicuous changes over the last few decades it is not known whether this is a pan-oceanic homogenous response. Using these two most prominent responses and/or indicative signals of pelagic ecosystems to hydro-climatic change, changes in species phenology and the biogeographical movement of populations, we attempt to identify vulnerable regional areas in terms of particularly rapid and marked change.

Mediterranean marine copepods: basin-scale trends of the calanoid Centropages typicus

The Mediterranean Sea is located in a crossroad of mid-latitude and subtropical climatic modes that enhance contrasting environmental conditions over both latitudinal and longitudinal ranges. Here, we show that the large-scale environmental forcing is reflected in the basin scale trends of the adult population of the calanoid copepod Centropages typicus. The species is distributed over the whole Mediterranean basin, and maximal abundances were found in the north-western basin associated to oceanic fronts, and in the Adriatic Sea associated to shallow and semi enclosed waters. The peak of main abundances of C. typicus correlates with the latitudinal temperature gradient and the highest seasonal abundances occurred in spring within the 14–18°C temperature window. Such thermal cline may define the latitudinal geographic region where C. typicus seasonally dominates the >200 μm-sized spring copepod community in the Mediterranean Sea. The approach used here is generally applicable to investigate the large-scale spatial patterns of other planktonic organisms and to identify favourable environmental windows for population development.

Improving the performance of a Mediterranean demersal fishery towards societal objectives beyond MSY

Mediterranean demersal fisheries are highly multispecific and many of their target stocks are overexploited. In addition, rocketing fuel costs and low market prices of traditionally high-value species are challenging the viability of fisheries. Here, based on the numeric results of a simulation model, we conclude that this situation can be remedied by reducing both fishing mortality and fishing costs. According to our model results, fishing effort reductions of 48–71% would improve the health of fish stocks while increasing the economic profits of Mallorca islands bottom trawl fishery to as much as 1.9 M€ (146% higher than current profits). If all fish stocks were exploited at their MSY (or below) level, the reduction in fishing effort would have to be of 71% from current values. If equilibrium profits from the fishery were to be maximized (MEY), fishing effort would need to be reduced by 48%. These results must be taken with caution due the many sources of uncertainty of our analysis. The modeling tools used to estimate these values are conditional to the adequate treatment of two sources of uncertainty that are particularly problematic in Mediterranean fisheries: insufficiently known recruitment variability and lack of periodic evaluations of the state of many species. Our results show that fishing effort reductions would produce economic yield gains after a period of transition. Further studies on the benefits of changing the size-selection pattern of fisheries, on better estimation of stock–recruitment relationships and on better quantifications of the contribution of secondary species to these fisheries, are expected to improve the scientific recommendations for Mediterranean demersal fisheries toward sustainability principles.

Improving the performance of a Mediterranean demersal fishery toward economic objectives beyond MSY

Mediterranean demersal fisheries are highly multispecific and many of their target stocks are overexploited. In addition, rocketing fuel costs and low market prices of traditionally high-value species are challenging the viability of fisheries. Here, based on the numeric results of a simulation model, we conclude that this situation can be remedied by reducing both fishing mortality and fishing costs. According to our model results, fishing effort reductions of 48-71% would improve the health of fish stocks while increasing the economic profits of Mallorca islands bottom trawl fishery to as much as 1.9 M(sic) (146% higher than current profits). If all fish stocks were exploited at their MSY (or below) level, the reduction in fishing effort would have to be of 71% from current values. If equilibrium profits from the fishery were to be maximized (MEY), fishing effort would need to be reduced by 48%. These results must be taken with caution due the many sources of uncertainty of our analysis. The modeling tools used to estimate these values are conditional to the adequate treatment of two sources of uncertainty that are particularly problematic in Mediterranean fisheries: insufficiently known recruitment variability and lack of periodic evaluations of the state of many species. Our results show that fishing effort reductions would produce economic yield gains after a period of transition. Further studies on the benefits of changing the size-selection pattern of fisheries, on better estimation of stock recruitment relationships and on better quantifications of the contribution of secondary species to these fisheries, are expected to improve the scientific recommendations for Mediterranean demersal fisheries toward sustainability principles.

Distribution, extent of inter-annual variability and diet of the bloom-forming jellyfish Rhizostoma in European waters

Jellyfish (Cnidaria: Scyphozoa) are increasingly thought to play a number of important ecosystem roles, but often fundamental knowledge of their distribution, seasonality and inter-annual variability is lacking. Bloom forming species, due to their high densities, can have particularly intense trophic and socio-economic impacts. In northern Europe it is known that one particularly large (up to 30 kg wet weight) bloom forming jellyfish is Rhizostoma spp. Given the potential importance, we set out to review all known records from peer-reviewed and broader public literature of the jellyfish R. octopus (Linnaeus) and R. pulmo (Macri) (Scyphozoa: Rhizostomae) across western Europe. These data revealed distinct hotspots where regular Rhizostoma spp. aggregations appeared to form, with other sites characterized by occasional abundances and a widespread distribution of infrequent observations. Surveys of known R. octopus hotspots around the Irish Sea also revealed marked inter-annual variation with particularly high abundances forming during 2003. The location of such consistent aggregations and inter-annual variances are discussed in relation to physical, climatic and dietary variations.

Modeling the Western Iberian margin circulation: present and future

The purpose of this work is to carry out a comprehensive study on the Western Iberian Margin (WIM) circulation my means of numerical modeling, and to postulate what this circulation will be in the future. The adopted approach was the development of a regional ocean model configuration with high resolution, capable of reproducing the largeand small-scale dynamics of the coastal transition zone. Four numerical experiences were carried out according to these objectives: (1) a climatological run, in order to study the system’s seasonal behavior and its mean state; (2) a run forced with real winds and fluxes for period 2001-2011 in order to study the interannual variability of the system; (3) a run forced with mean fields from Global Climate Models (GCMs) for the present, in order to validate GCMs as adequate forcing for regional ocean modeling; (4) a similar run (3) for period 2071-2100, in order to assess possible consequences of a future climate scenario on the hydrography and dynamics of the WIM. Furthermore, two Lagrangian particle studies were carried out: one in order to trace the origin of the upwelled waters along the WIM; the other in order to portrait the patterns of larval dispersal, accumulation and connectivity. The numerical configuration proved to be adequate in the reproduction of the system’s mean state, seasonal characterization and an interannual variability study. There is prevalence of poleward flow at the slope, which coexists with the upwelling jet during summer, although there is evidence of its shifting offshore, and which is associated with the Mediterranean Water flow at deeper levels, suggesting a barotropic character. From the future climate scenario essay, the following conclusions were drawn: there is general warming and freshening of upper level waters; there is still poleward tendency, and despite the upwellingfavorable winds strengthening in summer the respective coastal band becomes more restricted in width and depth. In what concerns larval connectivity and dispersion along the WIM, diel vertical migration was observed to increase recruitment throughout the domain, and while smooth coastlines are better suppliers, there is higher accumulation where the topography is rougher.