Assessing farmers' vulnerability to climate change : a case study in Karnataka, India

In the context of observed climate change impacts and their effect on agriculture and crop production, this study intends to assess the vulnerability of rural livelihoods through a study case in Karnataka, India. The social approach of climate change vulnerability in this study case includes defining and exploring factors that determine farmers’ vulnerability in four villages. Key informant interviews, farmer workshops and structured household interviews were used for data collection. To analyse the data, we adapted and applied three vulnerability indices: Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI), LVI-IPCC and the Livelihood Effect Index (LEI), and used descriptive statistical methods. The data was analysed at two scales: whole sample-level and household level. The results from applying the indices for the whole-sample level show that this community's vulnerability to climate change is moderate, whereas the household-level results show that most of the households' vulnerability is high-very high, while 15 key drivers of vulnerability were identified. Results and limitations of the study are discussed under the rural livelihoods framework, in which the indices are based, allowing a better understanding of the social behaviouraltrends, as well as an holistic and integrated view of the climate change, agriculture, and livelihoods processes shaping vulnerability. We conclude that these indices, although a straightforward method to assess vulnerability, have limitations that could account for inaccuracies and inability to be standardised for benchmarking, therefore we stress the need for further research.

PixFRET, an ImageJ plug-in for FRET calculation that can accommodate variations in spectral bleed-throughs.

Fluorescence resonance energy transfer (FRET) allows the user to investigate interactions between fluorescent partners. One crucial issue when calculating sensitized emission FRET is the correction for spectral bleed-throughs (SBTs), which requires to calculate the ratios between the intensities in the FRET and in the donor or acceptor settings, when only the donor or acceptor are present. Theoretically, SBT ratios should be constant. However, experimentally, these ratios can vary as a function of fluorophore intensity, and assuming constant values may hinder precise FRET calculation. One possible cause for such a variation is the use of a microscope set-up with different photomultipliers for the donor and FRET channels, a set-up allowing higher speed acquisitions on very dynamic fluorescent molecules in living cells. Herein, we show that the bias introduced by the differential response of the two PMTs can be circumvented by a simple modeling of the SBT ratios as a function of fluorophore intensity. Another important issue when performing FRET is the localization of FRET within the cell or a population of cells. We hence developed a freely available ImageJ plug-in, called PixFRET, that allows a simple and rapid determination of SBT parameters and the display of normalized FRET images. The usefulness of this modeling and of the plug-in are exemplified by the study of FRET in a system where two interacting nuclear receptors labeled with ECFP and EYFP are coexpressed in living cells.

Phosphorus burial in the ocean over glacial-interglacial time scales

The role of nutrients, such as phosphorus (P), and their impact on primary productivity and the fluctuations in atmospheric CO2 over glacial-interglacial periods are intensely debated. Suggestions as to the importance of P evolved from an earlier proposal that P actively participated in changing productivity rates and therefore climate change, to most recent ones that changes in the glacial ocean inventory of phosphorus were important but not influential if compared to other macronutrients, such as nitrate. Using new data coming from a selection of ODP sites, we analyzed the distribution of oceanic P sedimentary phases and calculate reactive P burial fluxes, and we show how P burial fluxes changed over the last glacial-interglacial period at these sites. Concentrations of reactive P are generally lower during glacial times, while mass accumulation rates (MAR) of reactive P show higher variability. If we extrapolate for the analyzed sites, we may assume that in general glacial burial fluxes of reactive P are lower than those during interglacial periods by about 8%, because the lack of burial of reactive P on the glacial shelf reduced in size, was apparently not compensated by burial in other regions of the ocean. Using the calculated changes in P burial, we evaluate their possible impact on the phosphate inventory in the world oceans. Using a simple mathematical approach, we find that these changes alone could have increased the phosphate inventory of glacial ocean waters by 17-40% compared to interglacial stages. Variations in the distribution of sedimentary P phases at the investigated sites seem to indicate that at the onset of interglacial stages, shallower sites experienced an increase in reactive P concentrations, which seems to point to P-richer waters at glacial terminations. All these findings would support the Shelf-Nutrient Hypothesis, which assumes that during glacial low stands nutrients are transferred from shallow sites to deep sea with possible feedback on the carbon cycle.

Climate change and plant distribution: local models predict high-elevation persistence

Mountain ecosystems will likely be affected by global warming during the 21st century, with substantial biodiversity loss predicted by species distribution models (SDMs). Depending on the geographic extent, elevation range and spatial resolution of data used in making these models, different rates of habitat loss have been predicted, with associated risk of species extinction. Few coordinated across-scale comparisons have been made using data of different resolution and geographic extent. Here, we assess whether climate-change induced habitat losses predicted at the European scale (10x10' grid cells) are also predicted from local scale data and modeling (25x25m grid cells) in two regions of the Swiss Alps. We show that local-scale models predict persistence of suitable habitats in up to 100% of species that were predicted by a European-scale model to lose all their suitable habitats in the area. Proportion of habitat loss depends on climate change scenario and study area. We find good agreement between the mismatch in predictions between scales and the fine-grain elevation range within 10x10' cells. The greatest prediction discrepancy for alpine species occurs in the area with the largest nival zone. Our results suggest elevation range as the main driver for the observed prediction discrepancies. Local scale projections may better reflect the possibility for species to track their climatic requirement toward higher elevations.

Variations in PROKR2, But Not PROK2, Are Associated With Hypopituitarism and Septo-optic Dysplasia.

Context:Loss-of-function mutations in PROK2 and PROKR2 have been implicated in Kallmann syndrome (KS), characterized by hypogonadotropic hypogonadism and anosmia. Recent data suggest overlapping phenotypes/genotypes between KS and congenital hypopituitarism (CH), including septo-optic dysplasia (SOD).Objective:We screened a cohort of patients with complex forms of CH (n = 422) for mutations in PROK2 and PROKR2.Results:We detected 5 PROKR2 variants in 11 patients with SOD/CH: novel p.G371R and previously reported p.A51T, p.R85L, p.L173R, and p.R268C-the latter 3 being known functionally deleterious variants. Surprisingly, 1 patient with SOD was heterozygous for the p.L173R variant, whereas his phenotypically unaffected mother was homozygous for the variant. We sought to clarify the role of PROKR2 in hypothalamopituitary development through analysis of Prokr2(-/-) mice. Interestingly, these revealed predominantly normal hypothalamopituitary development and terminal cell differentiation, with the exception of reduced LH; this was inconsistent with patient phenotypes and more analogous to the healthy mother, although she did not have KS, unlike the Prokr2(-/-) mice.Conclusions:The role of PROKR2 in the etiology of CH, SOD, and KS is uncertain, as demonstrated by no clear phenotype-genotype correlation; loss-of-function variants in heterozygosity or homozygosity can be associated with these disorders. However, we report a phenotypically normal parent, homozygous for p.L173R. Our data suggest that the variants identified herein are unlikely to be implicated in isolation in these disorders; other genetic or environmental modifiers may also impact on the etiology. Given the phenotypic variability, genetic counseling may presently be inappropriate.

A propos des "small area variations": opérations pour fracture de hanche dans le canton de Vaud. [Small area variations: surgery for hip fractures in the canton of Vaud].

OBJECTIVES: Studies of small area variations of health care utilization are more and more frequent. Such variations are often considered to be an indication of variations in the quality of medical care. The variations in the rate of operations for hip fractures are among the lowest studied to date, due to the fact that a consensus exists concerning this surgery. Our objective is to examine these variations within the context of relatively small and heterogeneous districts. METHOD: Based on anonymous computerized data on public hospital stays, this study describes the variations in population rates (crude and standardized) of operations for hip fracture among the health districts of the Canton of Vaud for the period from 1986 to 1991. District populations vary from 22,000 to 164,000. Using the extremal quotient (EQ), the importance of these variations was determined. RESULTS: The study population consists of 2363 cases, of which 78% are women. Mean age is 80.4 for women and 70.6 for men. Standardized rates of operation for hip fracture per 100,000 in the Canton Vaud for the years 1986 to 1991 are, respectively: 56; 67; 86; 91; 89 and 94. The EQ for the years 1986 to 1991 are respectively: 8.2; 4.0; 3.5; 2.7; 1.9 and 1.9. The high EQ, especially for the earlier years, are contrary to the initial premise of absence of variation. The progressive implementation in the Canton Vaud of VESKA medical statistics could play a role, as could the small size of many of the districts, with resultant instability of rates. CONCLUSIONS: Considering the wide variations shown here for an operation hardly regarded as subject to variations, it is important to exercise caution in interpreting published data of small area variations.

Case Study of Seasonal Variation in the Subgrade and Subbase Layers of Highway US 20, TR-516, 2008

Seasonal variations in ground temperature and moisture content influence the load carrying capacity of pavement subgrade layers. To improve pavement performance, pavement design guidelines require knowledge of environmental factors and subgrade stiffness relationships. As part of this study, in-ground instrumentation was installed in the pavement foundation layers of a newly constructed section along US Highway 20 near Fort Dodge, Iowa, to monitor the seasonal variations in temperature, frost depth, groundwater levels, and moisture regime. Dynamic cone penetrometer (DCP), nuclear gauge, and Clegg hammer tests were performed at 64 test points in a 6-ft x 6-ft grid pattern to characterize the subgrade stiffness properties (i.e., resilient modulus) prior to paving. The purpose of this paper is to present the field instrumentation results and the observed changes in soil properties due to seasonal environmental effects.

Wind Loads on Dynamic Message Cabinets and Behavior of Supporting Trusses, TR-612, 2013

Large Dynamic Message Signs (DMSs) have been increasingly used on freeways, expressways and major arterials to better manage the traffic flow by providing accurate and timely information to drivers. Overhead truss structures are typically employed to support those DMSs allowing them to provide wider display to more lanes. In recent years, there is increasing evidence that the truss structures supporting these large and heavy signs are subjected to much more complex loadings than are typically accounted for in the codified design procedures. Consequently, some of these structures have required frequent inspections, retrofitting, and even premature replacement. Two manufacturing processes are primarily utilized on truss structures - welding and bolting. Recently, cracks at welding toes were reported for the structures employed in some states. Extremely large loads (e.g., due to high winds) could cause brittle fractures, and cyclic vibration (e.g., due to diurnal variation in temperature or due to oscillations in the wind force induced by vortex shedding behind the DMS) may lead to fatigue damage, as these are two major failures for the metallic material. Wind and strain resulting from temperature changes are the main loads that affect the structures during their lifetime. The American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) Specification defines the limit loads in dead load, wind load, ice load, and fatigue design for natural wind gust and truck-induced gust. The objectives of this study are to investigate wind and thermal effects in the bridge type overhead DMS truss structures and improve the current design specifications (e.g., for thermal design). In order to accomplish the objective, it is necessary to study structural behavior and detailed strain-stress of the truss structures caused by wind load on the DMS cabinet and thermal load on the truss supporting the DMS cabinet. The study is divided into two parts. The Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) component and part of the structural analysis component of the study were conducted at the University of Iowa while the field study and related structural analysis computations were conducted at the Iowa State University. The CFD simulations were used to determine the air-induced forces (wind loads) on the DMS cabinets and the finite element analysis was used to determine the response of the supporting trusses to these pressure forces. The field observation portion consisted of short-term monitoring of several DMS Cabinet/Trusses and long-term monitoring of one DMS Cabinet/Truss. The short-term monitoring was a single (or two) day event in which several message sign panel/trusses were tested. The long-term monitoring field study extended over several months. Analysis of the data focused on trying to identify important behaviors under both ambient and truck induced winds and the effect of daily temperature changes. Results of the CFD investigation, field experiments and structural analysis of the wind induced forces on the DMS cabinets and their effect on the supporting trusses showed that the passage of trucks cannot be responsible for the problems observed to develop at trusses supporting DMS cabinets. Rather the data pointed toward the important effect of the thermal load induced by cyclic (diurnal) variations of the temperature. Thermal influence is not discussed in the specification, either in limit load or fatigue design. Although the frequency of the thermal load is low, results showed that when temperature range is large the restress range would be significant to the structure, especially near welding areas where stress concentrations may occur. Moreover stress amplitude and range are the primary parameters for brittle fracture and fatigue life estimation. Long-term field monitoring of one of the overhead truss structures in Iowa was used as the research baseline to estimate the effects of diurnal temperature changes to fatigue damage. The evaluation of the collected data is an important approach for understanding the structural behavior and for the advancement of future code provisions. Finite element modeling was developed to estimate the strain and stress magnitudes, which were compared with the field monitoring data. Fatigue life of the truss structures was also estimated based on AASHTO specifications and the numerical modeling. The main conclusion of the study is that thermal induced fatigue damage of the truss structures supporting DMS cabinets is likely a significant contributing cause for the cracks observed to develop at such structures. Other probable causes for fatigue damage not investigated in this study are the cyclic oscillations of the total wind load associated with the vortex shedding behind the DMS cabinet at high wind conditions and fabrication tolerances and induced stresses due to fitting of tube to tube connections.

Providing more informative projections of climate change impact on plant distribution in a mountain environment

Summary Due to their conic shape and the reduction of area with increasing elevation, mountain ecosystems were early identified as potentially very sensitive to global warming. Moreover, mountain systems may experience unprecedented rates of warming during the next century, two or three times higher than that records of the 20th century. In this context, species distribution models (SDM) have become important tools for rapid assessment of the impact of accelerated land use and climate change on the distribution plant species. In my study, I developed and tested new predictor variables for species distribution models (SDM), specific to current and future geographic projections of plant species in a mountain system, using the Western Swiss Alps as model region. Since meso- and micro-topography are relevant to explain geographic patterns of plant species in mountain environments, I assessed the effect of scale on predictor variables and geographic projections of SDM. I also developed a methodological framework of space-for-time evaluation to test the robustness of SDM when projected in a future changing climate. Finally, I used a cellular automaton to run dynamic simulations of plant migration under climate change in a mountain landscape, including realistic distance of seed dispersal. Results of future projections for the 21st century were also discussed in perspective of vegetation changes monitored during the 20th century. Overall, I showed in this study that, based on the most severe A1 climate change scenario and realistic dispersal simulations of plant dispersal, species extinctions in the Western Swiss Alps could affect nearly one third (28.5%) of the 284 species modeled by 2100. With the less severe 61 scenario, only 4.6% of species are predicted to become extinct. However, even with B1, 54% (153 species) may still loose more than 80% of their initial surface. Results of monitoring of past vegetation changes suggested that plant species can react quickly to the warmer conditions as far as competition is low However, in subalpine grasslands, competition of already present species is probably important and limit establishment of newly arrived species. Results from future simulations also showed that heavy extinctions of alpine plants may start already in 2040, but the latest in 2080. My study also highlighted the importance of fine scale and regional. assessments of climate change impact on mountain vegetation, using more direct predictor variables. Indeed, predictions at the continental scale may fail to predict local refugees or local extinctions, as well as loss of connectivity between local populations. On the other hand, migrations of low-elevation species to higher altitude may be difficult to predict at the local scale. Résumé La forme conique des montagnes ainsi que la diminution de surface dans les hautes altitudes sont reconnues pour exposer plus sensiblement les écosystèmes de montagne au réchauffement global. En outre, les systèmes de montagne seront sans doute soumis durant le 21ème siècle à un réchauffement deux à trois fois plus rapide que celui mesuré durant le 20ème siècle. Dans ce contexte, les modèles prédictifs de distribution géographique de la végétation se sont imposés comme des outils puissants pour de rapides évaluations de l'impact des changements climatiques et de la transformation du paysage par l'homme sur la végétation. Dans mon étude, j'ai développé de nouvelles variables prédictives pour les modèles de distribution, spécifiques à la projection géographique présente et future des plantes dans un système de montagne, en utilisant les Préalpes vaudoises comme zone d'échantillonnage. La méso- et la microtopographie étant particulièrement adaptées pour expliquer les patrons de distribution géographique des plantes dans un environnement montagneux, j'ai testé les effets d'échelle sur les variables prédictives et sur les projections des modèles de distribution. J'ai aussi développé un cadre méthodologique pour tester la robustesse potentielle des modèles lors de projections pour le futur. Finalement, j'ai utilisé un automate cellulaire pour simuler de manière dynamique la migration future des plantes dans le paysage et dans quatre scénarios de changement climatique pour le 21ème siècle. J'ai intégré dans ces simulations des mécanismes et des distances plus réalistes de dispersion de graines. J'ai pu montrer, avec les simulations les plus réalistes, que près du tiers des 284 espèces considérées (28.5%) pourraient être menacées d'extinction en 2100 dans le cas du plus sévère scénario de changement climatique A1. Pour le moins sévère des scénarios B1, seulement 4.6% des espèces sont menacées d'extinctions, mais 54% (153 espèces) risquent de perdre plus 80% de leur habitat initial. Les résultats de monitoring des changements de végétation dans le passé montrent que les plantes peuvent réagir rapidement au réchauffement climatique si la compétition est faible. Dans les prairies subalpines, les espèces déjà présentes limitent certainement l'arrivée de nouvelles espèces par effet de compétition. Les résultats de simulation pour le futur prédisent le début d'extinctions massives dans les Préalpes à partir de 2040, au plus tard en 2080. Mon travail démontre aussi l'importance d'études régionales à échelle fine pour évaluer l'impact des changements climatiques sur la végétation, en intégrant des variables plus directes. En effet, les études à échelle continentale ne tiennent pas compte des micro-refuges, des extinctions locales ni des pertes de connectivité entre populations locales. Malgré cela, la migration des plantes de basses altitudes reste difficile à prédire à l'échelle locale sans modélisation plus globale.

Microsatellite variations of Quercus aquifolioides populations at varying altitudes in the Wolong Natural Reserve of China

Abstract

Risk analysis of climate change on coffee nematodes and leaf miner in Brazil

The objective of this work was to assess the potential impact of climate change on the spatial distribution of coffee nematodes (races of Meloidogyne incognita) and leaf miner (Leucoptera coffeella), using a Geographic Information System. Assessment of the impacts of climate change on pest infestations and disease epidemics in crops is needed as a basis for revising management practices to minimize crop losses as climatic conditions shift. Future scenarios focused on the decades of the 2020's, 2050's, and 2080's (scenarios A2 and B2) were obtained from five General Circulation Models available on Data Distribution Centre from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Geographic distribution maps were prepared using models to predict the number of generations of the nematodes and leaf miner. Maps obtained in scenario A2 allowed prediction of an increased infestation of the nematode and of the pest, due to greater number of generations per month, than occurred under the climatological normal from 1961-1990. The number of generations also increased in the B2 scenario, but was lower than in the A2 scenario for both organisms.

Survival and early seedling growth of conifers with different shade tolerance in a Sitka spruce spacing trial and relationship to understorey light climate

Abstract

Elevation gradient of successful plant traits for colonizing alpine summits under climate change

Upward migration of plant species due to climate change has become evident in several European mountain ranges. It is still, however, unclear whether certain plant traits increase the probability that a species will colonize mountain summits or vanish, and whether these traits differ with elevation. Here, we used data from a repeat survey of the occurrence of plant species on 120 summits, ranging from 2449 to 3418 m asl, in south-eastern Switzerland to identify plant traits that increase the probability of colonization or extinction in the 20th century. Species numbers increased across all plant traits considered. With some traits, however, numbers increased proportionally more. The most successful colonizers seemed to prefer warmer temperatures and well-developed soils. They produced achene fruits and/or seeds with pappus appendages. Conversely, cushion plants and species with capsule fruits were less efficient as colonizers. Observed changes in traits along the elevation gradient mainly corresponded to the natural distribution of traits. Extinctions did not seem to be clearly related to any trait. Our study showed that plant traits varied along both temporal and elevational gradients. While seeds with pappus seemed to be advantageous for colonization, most of the trait changes also mirrored previous gradients of traits along elevation and hence illustrated the general upward migration of plant species. An understanding of the trait characteristics of colonizing species is crucial for predicting future changes in mountain vegetation under climate change.

Density, climate and varying return points: an analysis of long-term population fluctuations in the threatened European tree frog.

Experimental research has identified many putative agents of amphibian decline, yet the population-level consequences of these agents remain unknown, owing to lack of information on compensatory density dependence in natural populations. Here, we investigate the relative importance of intrinsic (density-dependent) and extrinsic (climatic) factors impacting the dynamics of a tree frog (Hyla arborea) population over 22 years. A combination of log-linear density dependence and rainfall (with a 2-year time lag corresponding to development time) explain 75% of the variance in the rate of increase. Such fluctuations around a variable return point might be responsible for the seemingly erratic demography and disequilibrium dynamics of many amphibian populations.