Methods for constructing uncertainty intervals for queries of Bayesian nets

In this paper the issue of finding uncertainty intervals for queries in a Bayesian Network is reconsidered. The investigation focuses on Bayesian Nets with discrete nodes and finite populations. An earlier asymptotic approach is compared with a simulation-based approach, together with further alternatives, one based on a single sample of the Bayesian Net of a particular finite population size, and another which uses expected population sizes together with exact probabilities. We conclude that a query of a Bayesian Net should be expressed as a probability embedded in an uncertainty interval. Based on an investigation of two Bayesian Net structures, the preferred method is the simulation method. However, both the single sample method and the expected sample size methods may be useful and are simpler to compute. Any method at all is more useful than none, when assessing a Bayesian Net under development, or when drawing conclusions from an ‘expert’ system.

Survey : The design studio now

In this book for the AASA I provide a response to the question asked by the editors: What is Architecture Studio?

“It’s in the syllabus”: Identifying information literacy and data information literacy opportunities using a grounded theory approach

Developing innovative library services requires a real world understanding of faculty members' desired curricular goals. This study aimed to develop a comprehensive and deeper understanding of Purdue's nutrition science and political science faculties' expectations for student learning related to information and data information literacies. Course syllabi were examined using grounded theory techniques that allowed us to identify how faculty were addressing information and data information literacies in their courses, but it also enabled us to understand the interconnectedness of these literacies to other departmental intentions for student learning, such as developing a professional identity or learning to conduct original research. The holistic understanding developed through this research provides the necessary information for designing and suggesting information literacy and data information literacy services to departmental faculty in ways supportive of curricular learning outcomes.

Autosomal dominant spondylocostal dysostosis is caused by mutation in TBX6

In humans, congenital spinal defects occur with an incidence of 0.5-1 per 1000 live births. One of the most severe syndromes with such defects is spondylocostal dysostosis (SCD). Over the past decade, the genetic basis of several forms of autosomal recessive SCD cases has been solved with the identification of four causative genes (DLL3, MESP2, LFNG and HES7). Autosomal dominant forms of SCD have also been reported, but to date no genetic etiology has been described for these. Here, we have used exome capture and next-generation sequencing to identify a stoploss mutation in TBX6 that segregates with disease in two generations of one family. We show that this mutation has a deleterious effect on the transcriptional activation activity of the TBX6 protein, likely due to haploinsufficiency. In mouse, Tbx6 is essential for the patterning of the vertebral precursor tissues, somites; thus, mutation of TBX6 is likely to be causative of SCD in this family. This is the first identification of the genetic cause of an autosomal dominant form of SCD, and also demonstrates the potential of exome sequencing to identify genetic causes of dominant diseases even in small families with few affected individuals.

Mosaic PPM1D mutations are associated with predisposition to breast and ovarian cancer

Improved sequencing technologies offer unprecedented opportunities for investigating the role of rare genetic variation in common disease. However, there are considerable challenges with respect to study design, data analysis and replication. Using pooled next-generation sequencing of 507 genes implicated in the repair of DNA in 1,150 samples, an analytical strategy focused on protein-truncating variants (PTVs) and a large-scale sequencing case-control replication experiment in 13,642 individuals, here we show that rare PTVs in the p53-inducible protein phosphatase PPM1D are associated with predisposition to breast cancer and ovarian cancer. PPM1D PTV mutations were present in 25 out of 7,781 cases versus 1 out of 5,861 controls (P = 1.12 × 10-5), including 18 mutations in 6,912 individuals with breast cancer (P = 2.42 × 10-4) and 12 mutations in 1,121 individuals with ovarian cancer (P = 3.10 × 10-9). Notably, all of the identified PPM1D PTVs were mosaic in lymphocyte DNA and clustered within a 370-base-pair region in the final exon of the gene, carboxy-terminal to the phosphatase catalytic domain. Functional studies demonstrate that the mutations result in enhanced suppression of p53 in response to ionizing radiation exposure, suggesting that the mutant alleles encode hyperactive PPM1D isoforms. Thus, although the mutations cause premature protein truncation, they do not result in the simple loss-of-function effect typically associated with this class of variant, but instead probably have a gain-of-function effect. Our results have implications for the detection and management of breast and ovarian cancer risk. More generally, these data provide new insights into the role of rare and of mosaic genetic variants in common conditions, and the use of sequencing in their identification.

A new regulatory variant in the interleukin-6 receptor gene associates with asthma risk

The main genetic determinant of soluble interleukin 6 receptor (sIL-6R) levels is the missense variant rs2228145 that maps to the cleavage site of IL-6R. For each Ala allele, sIL-6R serum levels increase by ∼20 ng ml -1 and asthma risk by 1.09-fold. However, this variant does not explain the total heritability for sIL-6R levels. Additional independent variants in IL6R may therefore contribute to variation in sIL-6R levels and influence asthma risk. We imputed 471 variants in IL6R and tested these for association with sIL-6R serum levels in 360 individuals. An intronic variant (rs12083537) was associated with sIL-6R levels independently of rs4129267 (P=0.0005), a proxy single-nucleotide polymorphism for rs2228145. A significant and consistent association for rs12083537 was observed in a replication panel of 354 individuals (P=0.033). Each rs12083537:A allele increased sIL-6R serum levels by 2.4 ng ml -1. Analysis of mRNA levels in two cohorts did not identify significant associations between rs12083537 and IL6R transcription levels. On the other hand, results from 16 705 asthmatics and 30 809 controls showed that the rs12083537:A allele increased asthma risk by 1.04-fold (P=0.0419). Genetic risk scores based on IL6R regulatory variants may prove useful in explaining variation in clinical response to tocilizumab, an anti-IL-6R monoclonal antibody.

Fine mapping and replication of genetic risk Loci in primary sclerosing cholangitis

Background and aims. Primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) is a chronic cholestatic liver disease characterized by progressive inflammation and fibrosis of the bile ducts eventually leading to biliary cirrhosis. Recent genetic studies in PSC have identified associations at 2q13, 2q35, 3p21, 4q27, 13q31 and suggestive association at 10p15. The aim of this study was to further characterize and refine the genetic architecture of PSC. Methods. We analyzed previously reported associated SNPs at four of these non-HLA loci and 59 SNPs tagging the IL-2/IL-21 (4q27) and IL2RA (10p15) loci in 992 UK PSC cases and 5162 healthy UK controls. Results. The most associated SNPs identified were rs3197999 (3p21 (MST1), p = 1.9 × 10 -6, OR A vs G = 1.28, 95% CI (1.16-1.42)); rs4147359 (10p15 (IL2RA), p = 2.6 × 10 -4, OR A vs G = 1.20, 95% CI (1.09-1.33)) and rs12511287 (4q27 (IL-2/IL-21), p = 3.0 × 10 -4, OR A vs T = 1.21, 95% CI (1.09-1.35)). In addition, we performed a meta-analysis for selected SNPs using published summary statistics from recent studies. We observed genome-wide significance for rs3197999 (3p21 (MST1), P combined = 3.8 × 10 -12) and rs4147359 (10p15 (IL2RA), P combined = 1.5 × 10 -8). Conclusion. We have for the first time confirmed the association of PSC with genetic variants at 10p15 (IL2RA) locus at genome-wide significance and replicated the associations at MST1 and IL-2/IL-21 loci in a large homogeneous UK population. These results strongly implicate the role of IL-2/IL2RA pathway in PSC and provide further confirmation of MST1 association. © Informa Healthcare.

Toll-like receptor 4 and CD14 polymorphisms in ankylosing spondylitis: Evidence of a weak association in finns

Objective To investigate the association of CD14 and Toll-like receptor (TLR4) with ankylosing spondylitis (AS). Methods A promoter variant in CD14 and 2 coding polymorphisms in TLR4 were investigated in UK and Finnish families with AS and in a UK case-control study. A metaanalysis of published TLR4 and CD14 studies was performed. Results In the Finnish study the CD74-260bp T variant showed an association (p = 0.006), and the common 2-marker TLR4 haplotype showed a weak association (global p = 0.03), with AS. No associations were seen in the UK based studies or in the metaanalyses. Conclusion CD14 and TLR4 showed an association with AS in the Finns only.

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990–2013: Quantifying the epidemiological transition

Background The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age–sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development. Methods We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time. Findings Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6·2 years (95% UI 5·6–6·6), from 65·3 years (65·0–65·6) in 1990 to 71·5 years (71·0–71·9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5·4 years (4·9–5·8), from 56·9 years (54·5–59·1) to 62·3 years (59·7–64·8), total DALYs fell by 3·6% (0·3–7·4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26·7% (24·6–29·1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non–communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries. Interpretation Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition—in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden—is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk–outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990–2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8–58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1–43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5–89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

A.c. conductivity studies on the silver molybdo-arsenate glassy system

A new quaternary fast-ion conducting silver molybdo-arsenate [Agl-Ag2O-(MoO3 + As2O5)] (SMA) glassy system has been prepared using the melt-quenching technique for various dopant salt (Agl) concentrations by fixing the formers (MoO3 + As2O5) composition and the modifier (Ag2O) to formers (M/F) ratio. The prepared compounds were characterized by X-ray diffraction. The impedance measurements were made on different Agl compositions of the SMA glasses as a function of frequency (6.5 Hz-65 kHz) and temperature (303-343 K), using the Solatron frequency-response analyser(model 1250). The bulk conductivity and the appropriate physical model (equivalent circuit) of the SMA glass were obtained from the impedance analysis. The a.c. conductivity was calculated for different Agl compositions of SMA glasses at various temperatures and the obtained a.c. conductivity results were analysed using Jonscher's Universal Law. The conduction mechanism for the highest conducting SMA glassy compound has been explained using the diffusion path model.

Dynamics of a dilute sheared inelastic fluid. II. The effect of correlations

The effect of correlations on the viscosity of a dilute sheared inelastic fluid is analyzed using the ring-kinetic equation for the two-particle correlation function. The leading-order contribution to the stress in an expansion in epsilon=(1-e)(1/2) is calculated, and it is shown that the leading-order viscosity is identical to that obtained from the Green-Kubo formula, provided the stress autocorrelation function in a sheared steady state is used in the Green-Kubo formula. A systemmatic extension of this to higher orders is also formulated, and the higher-order contributions to the stress from the ring-kinetic equation are determined in terms of the terms in the Chapman-Enskog solution for the Boltzmann equation. The series is resummed analytically to obtain a renormalized stress equation. The most dominant contributions to the two-particle correlation function are products of the eigenvectors of the conserved hydrodynamic modes of the two correlated particles. In Part I, it was shown that the long-time tails of the velocity autocorrelation function are not present in a sheared fluid. Using those results, we show that correlations do not cause a divergence in the transport coefficients; the viscosity is not divergent in two dimensions, and the Burnett coefficients are not divergent in three dimensions. The equations for three-particle and higher correlations are analyzed diagrammatically. It is found that the contributions due to the three-particle and higher correlation functions to the renormalized viscosity are smaller than those due to the two-particle distribution function in the limit epsilon -> 0. This implies that the most dominant correlation effects are due to the two-particle correlations.

Critical Reappraisal Of Plasticity Index Of Soils

A fundamental approach, based on Gouy-Chapman theory of double layer, has been provided to micromechanistically interpret the plasticity index of soils and their relationship with liquid limit. The relationships between plasticity index and liquid limit, developed earlier, through statistical approaches and critical state concepts, have been reexamined. The statistical analysis of extensive published data has resulted in the relationship, IP = 0.74 (wL - 8). On comparison with other relationships in vogue the proposed equation has been found to give better agreement. From the reappraisal of critical state approaches consistent with the micromechanistic interpretation, the possible range of parameters have been computed and compared with those obtained by statistical means to enhance the credibility of the proposed relationship.

Groucho homologue Grg5 interacts with the transcription factor Runx2-Cbfa1 and modulates its activity during postnatal growth in mice

Runx2-Cbfal, a Runt transcription factor, plays important roles during skeletal development. It is required for differentiation and function of osteoblasts. In its absence, chondrocyte hypertrophy is severely impaired and there is no vascularization of cartilage templates during skeletal development. These tissue-specific functions of Runx2 are likely to be dependent on its interaction with other proteins. We have therefore searched for proteins that may modulate the activity of Runx2. The yeast two-hybrid system was used to identify a groucho homologue, Grg5, as a Runx2-interacting protein. Grg5 enhances Runx2 activity in a cell culture-based assay and by analyses of postnatal growth in mice we demonstrate that Grg5 and Runx2 interact genetically. We also show that Runx2 haploinsufficiency in the absence of Grg5 results in a more severe delay in ossification of cranial sutures and fontanels than occurs with Runx2 haploinsufficiency on a wild-type background. Finally, we find shortening of the proliferative and hypertrophic zones, and expansion of the resting zone in the growth plates of Runx2(+/-)Grg5(-/-) mice that are associated with reduced Ihh expression and Indian hedgehog (Ihh) signaling. We therefore conclude that Grg5 enhances Runx2 activity in vivo.