Forecasting multivariate time series under present-value-model short- and long-run co-movement restrictions

It is well known that cointegration between the level of two variables (e.g. prices and dividends) is a necessary condition to assess the empirical validity of a present-value model (PVM) linking them. The work on cointegration,namelyon long-run co-movements, has been so prevalent that it is often over-looked that another necessary condition for the PVM to hold is that the forecast error entailed by the model is orthogonal to the past. This amounts to investigate whether short-run co-movememts steming from common cyclical feature restrictions are also present in such a system. In this paper we test for the presence of such co-movement on long- and short-term interest rates and on price and dividend for the U.S. economy. We focuss on the potential improvement in forecasting accuracies when imposing those two types of restrictions coming from economic theory.

Forecasting Multivariate Time Series under Present-Value-Model Short- and Long-run Co-movement Restrictions

This paper has two original contributions. First, we show that the present value model (PVM hereafter), which has a wide application in macroeconomics and fi nance, entails common cyclical feature restrictions in the dynamics of the vector error-correction representation (Vahid and Engle, 1993); something that has been already investigated in that VECM context by Johansen and Swensen (1999, 2011) but has not been discussed before with this new emphasis. We also provide the present value reduced rank constraints to be tested within the log-linear model. Our second contribution relates to forecasting time series that are subject to those long and short-run reduced rank restrictions. The reason why appropriate common cyclical feature restrictions might improve forecasting is because it finds natural exclusion restrictions preventing the estimation of useless parameters, which would otherwise contribute to the increase of forecast variance with no expected reduction in bias. We applied the techniques discussed in this paper to data known to be subject to present value restrictions, i.e. the online series maintained and up-dated by Shiller. We focus on three different data sets. The fi rst includes the levels of interest rates with long and short maturities, the second includes the level of real price and dividend for the S&P composite index, and the third includes the logarithmic transformation of prices and dividends. Our exhaustive investigation of several different multivariate models reveals that better forecasts can be achieved when restrictions are applied to them. Moreover, imposing short-run restrictions produce forecast winners 70% of the time for target variables of PVMs and 63.33% of the time when all variables in the system are considered.

Co-movement between two processes with local persistence

This paper introduces a residual based test where the null hypothesis of c:&InOvement between two processes with local persistenc~ can be tested, even under the presence of an endogenous regressor. It, therefore, fills in an existing lacuna in econometrics, in which longrun relationships can also be tested if the dependent and independent variables do not have a unit root, but do exhibit local persistence.

Forecasting multivariate time series under present-value-model short- and long-run co-movement restrictions

Using a sequence of nested multivariate models that are VAR-based, we discuss different layers of restrictions imposed by present-value models (PVM hereafter) on the VAR in levels for series that are subject to present-value restrictions. Our focus is novel - we are interested in the short-run restrictions entailed by PVMs (Vahid and Engle, 1993, 1997) and their implications for forecasting. Using a well-known database, kept by Robert Shiller, we implement a forecasting competition that imposes different layers of PVM restrictions. Our exhaustive investigation of several different multivariate models reveals that better forecasts can be achieved when restrictions are applied to the unrestricted VAR. Moreover, imposing short-run restrictions produces forecast winners 70% of the time for the target variables of PVMs and 63.33% of the time when all variables in the system are considered.

Indução de morte celular em células de adenocarcinoma cervical humano (HeLa) pela lectina da esponja Cinachyrella apion (CaL)

Cancer is a term used to represent a set of more than 100 diseases, including malignant tumors from different locations. The malignancies are the second leading cause of death in the population, representing approximately 17% of deaths of known cause. Strategies that induce differentiation have had limited success in the treatment of established cancers. In this work, a lectin purified from the marine sponge Cinachyrella apion (CaL) was evaluated due to its hemolytic, cytotoxic and antiproliferative properties, besides the ability to induce cell death via apoptosis in tumor cells. The antiproliferative activity of CaL was tested against cell lines, with the highest inhibition of tumor growth for HeLa, reducing cell growth at a dose dependent manner, with a concentration of 10 μg/mL. The hemolytic activity and toxicity against peripheral blood cells were tested using the concentration of IC50 for both trials and twice the IC50 for analysis in flow cytometry, indicating that CaL is not toxic to these cells. To assess the mechanism of cell death caused by CaL in HeLa cells, we performed flow cytometry and western blotting. The results showed the lectin probably induces cell death by apoptosis activation by pro-apoptotic protein Bax, promoting mitochondrial membrane permeabilization, cell cycle arrest in S phase, with accumulation of cells of approximately 57% in this phase, and acting as both dependent and/or independent of caspases pathway. These results suggest that CaL has the potential to be used as drug treatment against cancer.

Movement of Spodoptera frugiperda Adults (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) in Maize in Brazil

The fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda (J. E. Smith), is one of the most important maize pests in the Americas and particularly in South America. With the adoption of genetically modified plants expressing Bacillus thuringiensis toxins for lepidopterous pest control, there is a need for establishing strategies to delay the development of insect resistance (e.g. refuge areas). Thus, information on target insects' dispersal is essential to improve pest management techniques. The objective of this work was to evaluate the dispersal capacity of S. frugiperda adults using mark-release-recapture techniques. Insects were marked using red oil-soluble dye in the larval artificial diet. Marked adults were released twice in each growing season (dry and wet) in southeastern Brazil in 2006 and 2007. Recapture of marked insects was performed using light and pheromone traps. Males are more attracted to light traps than females and the recapture rate was higher in the dry season than in the rainy season. The most adequate model to explain the relationship between flight distance and number of recaptured insects is y = a(2)/ (1+ (2a(1.8)+ bx))((2.6)), where y is the distance and x is the number captured. The maximum recapture distances were 806 m for males and 608 m for females. Therefore, strategies for establishment of refuges should take such distances into consideration.

Asymmetric post-natal development of superior cervical ganglion of paca (Agouti paca)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

The Developing Left Superior Cervical Ganglion of Pacas (Agouti Paca)

In this study the main question investigated was the number and size of both binucleate and mononucleate superior cervical ganglion (SCG) neurons and, whether post-natal development would affect these parameters. Twenty left SCGs from 20 male pacas were used. Four different ages were investigated, that is newborn (4 days), young (45 days), adult (2 years), and aged animals (7 years). By using design-based stereo-logical methods, that is the Cavalieri principle and a physical disector combined with serial sectioning, the total volume of ganglion and total number of mononucleate and binucleate neurons were estimated. Furthermore, the mean perikaryal (somal) volume of mononucleate and binucleate neurons was estimated using the vertical nucleator. The main findings of this study were a 154% increase in the SCG volume, a 95% increase in the total number of mononucleate SCG neurons and a 50% increase in the total volume of SCG neurons. In conclusion, apart from neuron number, different adaptive mechanisms may coexist in the autonomic nervous system to guarantee a functional homeostasis during ageing, which is not always associated with neuron losses. Anat Rec, 292:966-975, 2009. (C) 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Activity, movement and secretive behavior of a threatened arboreal folivore, the thin-spined porcupine, in the Atlantic forest of southern Bahia, Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

About the Use of the HdHr Algorithm Group in Integrating the Movement Equation with Nonlinear Terms

This work summarizes the HdHr group of Hermitian integration algorithms for dynamic structural analysis applications. It proposes a procedure for their use when nonlinear terms are present in the equilibrium equation. The simple pendulum problem is solved as a first example and the numerical results are discussed. Directions to be pursued in future research are also mentioned. Copyright (C) 2009 H.M. Bottura and A. C. Rigitano.

Tireóide ectópica cervical lateral: Relato de caso e revisão da literatura

Tireóide ectópica é qualquer tecido tireoideano localizado fora de sua topografia habitual, podendo apresentar-se na linha mediana do pescoço ou, mais raramente, na região cervical lateral. Algumas teorias tentam explicar a origem do tecido tireoideano ectópico: 1. falha na descida da glândula; 2. seqüestro de nódulos tireoideanos; 3. presença de tecido tireoideano na cápsula de linfonodos cervicais; 4. formação teratomatosa; 5. Secundário a anomalias branquiais. Na abordagem diagnóstica, diversos exames têm sido utilizados, sendo o diagnóstico definitivo algumas vezes fornecido apenas pelo estudo histopatológico. Apesar das controvérsias em relação às abordagens terapêuticas apresentadas na literatura, é necessário um planejamento rigoroso para evitar iatrogenias. Conclui-se que a presença de tecido tireoideano ectópico deve ser lembrada no diagnóstico diferencial de massas cervicais laterais, e sua origem histológica considerada, sendo na maioria das vezes metástase de um carcinoma tireoideano oculto. Os autores relatam um caso de tecido tireoideano ectópico lateral no pescoço, em paciente do sexo feminino com bócio colóide mergulhante. Foram realizadas considerações importantes sobre dismorfogênese tireoideana, métodos diagnósticos e opções de tratamento, com revisão da literatura das últimas cinco décadas.

Sistematização da assistência de enfermagem a paciente com luxação de coluna cervical: estudo de caso

Trata-se de um estudo de caso de paciente portador de luxação de coluna cervical. Sem comprometimento medular, no qual as autoras operacionalizaram o processo de enfermagem, segundo Modelo Conceitual de Horta, adaptando a Taxonomia I dos Diagnósticos de Enfermagem proposta pela North American Nursing Diagnosis Association (NANDA). Os resultados demonstraram que as intervenções propostas ao caso contribuíram na sua reabilitação, prevenindo complicações, bem como ajudando-o a retomar ao seu ambiente social para reassumir a sua autonomia.

Cervical Lactobacillus and leukocyte infiltration in preterm premature rupture of membranes

Objectives: To evaluate the possible association between microorganisms present in the cervical secretions and amniotic fluid of pregnant women with preterm premature rupture of membranes (PPROM), and histologic chorioamnionitis. Methods: Thirty-seven pregnant women with PPROM and 21 healthy pregnant women were studied. Secretions from the cervical canal and amniotic fluid were collected to isolate microorganisms present in the genital tract. Cervical smears were Gram stained and evaluated microscopically. At delivery, chorioamniotic membranes were collected for histopathologic analysis. Results: Microscopic examination of the cervical secretion smears obtained from the PPROM group showed a low rate of Lactobacillus species, large numbers of leukocytes, and a wide diversity of microorganisms compared with the control group. The PPROM group presented an 80% rate of chorioamnionitis. Staphylococcus aureus isolation in cervical secretion was associated with intense inflammatory infiltrate in the membranes and might play a role in the pathogenesis of PPROM. Conclusions: the low colonization of cervical flora by Lactobacillus species associated with an intense leukocyte infiltrate detected in Gram-stained cervical smears can be considered a rapid method of detecting chorioamnionitis in pregnant women with PPROM. (C) 2003 International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics. Published by Elsevier B.V. Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Histopathological and immunohistochemical (cytokeratins AE1/AE3) study of the parametrium of patients with early stage cervical cancer

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)