Natural resources, redistribution and Human capital formation

How do resource booms affect human capital accumulation? We exploit time and spatial variation generated by the commodity boom across local governments in Peru to measure the effect of natural resources on human capital formation. We explore the effect of both mining production and tax revenues on test scores, finding a substantial and statistically significant effect for the latter. Transfers to local governments from mining tax revenues are linked to an increase in math test scores of around 0.23 standard deviations. We find that the hiring of permanent teachers as well as the increases in parental employment and improvements in health outcomes of adults and children are plausible mechanisms for such large effect on learning. These findings suggest that redistributive policies could facilitate the accumulation of human capital in resource abundant developing countries as a way to avoid the natural resources curse.

Contrasting Effects of Cattle Grazing Intensity on Upland-Nesting Duck Production at Nest and Field Scales in the Aspen Parkland, Canada

The Aspen Parkland of Canada is one of the most important breeding areas for temperate nesting ducks in North America. The region is dominated by agricultural land use, with approximately 9.3 million ha in pasture land for cattle grazing. However, the effects of using land for cattle grazing on upland-nesting duck production are poorly understood. The current study was undertaken during 2001 and 2002 to investigate how nest density and nesting success of upland-nesting ducks varied with respect to the intensity of cattle grazing in the Aspen Parkland. We predicted that the removal and trampling of vegetation through cattle grazing would reduce duck nest density. Both positive and negative responses of duck nesting success to grazing have been reported in previous studies, leading us to test competing hypotheses that nesting success would (1) decline linearly with grazing intensity or (2) peak at moderate levels of grazing. Nearly 3300 ha of upland cover were searched during the study. Despite extensive and severe drought, nest searches located 302 duck nests. As predicted, nest density was higher in fields with lower grazing intensity and higher pasture health scores. A lightly grazed field with a pasture score of 85 out of a possible 100 was predicted to have 16.1 nests/100 ha (95% CI = 11.7–22.1), more than five times the predicted nest density of a heavily grazed field with a pasture score of 58 (3.3 nests/100 ha, 95% CI = 2.2–4.5). Nesting success was positively related to nest-site vegetation density across most levels of grazing intensity studied, supporting our hypothesis that reductions in vegetation caused by grazing would negatively affect nesting success. However, nesting success increased with grazing intensity at the field scale. For example, nesting success for a well-concealed nest in a lightly grazed field was 11.6% (95% CI = 3.6–25.0%), whereas nesting success for a nest with the same level of nest-site vegetation in a heavily grazed field was 33.9% (95% CI = 17.0–51.8%). Across the range of residual cover observed in this study, nests with above-average nest-site vegetation density had nesting success rates that exceeded the levels believed necessary to maintain duck populations. Our findings on complex and previously unreported relationships between grazing, nest density, and nesting success provide useful insights into the management and conservation of ground-nesting grassland birds.

Estimated Number of Birds Killed by House Cats (Felis catus) in Canada

Predation by house cats (Felis catus) is one of the largest human-related sources of mortality for wild birds in the United States and elsewhere, and has been implicated in extinctions and population declines of several species. However, relatively little is known about this topic in Canada. The objectives of this study were to provide plausible estimates for the number of birds killed by house cats in Canada, identify information that would help improve those estimates, and identify species potentially vulnerable to population impacts. In total, cats are estimated to kill between 100 and 350 million birds per year in Canada (> 95% of estimates were in this range), with the majority likely to be killed by feral cats. This range of estimates is based on surveys indicating that Canadians own about 8.5 million pet cats, a rough approximation of 1.4 to 4.2 million feral cats, and literature values of predation rates from studies conducted elsewhere. Reliability of the total kill estimate would be improved most by better knowledge of feral cat numbers and diet in Canada, though any data on birds killed by cats in Canada would be helpful. These estimates suggest that 2-7% of birds in southern Canada are killed by cats per year. Even at the low end, predation by house cats is probably the largest human-related source of bird mortality in Canada. Many species of birds are potentially vulnerable to at least local population impacts in southern Canada, by virtue of nesting or feeding on or near ground level, and habitat choices that bring them into contact with human-dominated landscapes where cats are abundant. Because cat predation is likely to remain a primary source of bird mortality in Canada for some time, this issue needs more scientific attention in Canada.

TIGGE: Comparison of the prediction of northern hemisphere extratropical cyclones by different ensemble prediction systems

The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) is a World Weather Research Programme project. One of its main objectives is to enhance collaboration on the development of ensemble prediction between operational centers and universities by increasing the availability of ensemble prediction system (EPS) data for research. This study analyzes the prediction of Northern Hemisphere extratropical cyclones by nine different EPSs archived as part of the TIGGE project for the 6-month time period of 1 February 2008–31 July 2008, which included a sample of 774 cyclones. An objective feature tracking method has been used to identify and track the cyclones along the forecast trajectories. Forecast verification statistics have then been produced [using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational analysis as the truth] for cyclone position, intensity, and propagation speed, showing large differences between the different EPSs. The results show that the ECMWF ensemble mean and control have the highest level of skill for all cyclone properties. The Japanese Meteorological Administration (JMA), the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), the Met Office (UKMO), and the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) have 1 day less skill for the position of cyclones throughout the forecast range. The relative performance of the different EPSs remains the same for cyclone intensity except for NCEP, which has larger errors than for position. NCEP, the Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos (CPTEC), and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) all have faster intensity error growth in the earlier part of the forecast. They are also very underdispersive and significantly underpredict intensities, perhaps due to the comparatively low spatial resolutions of these EPSs not being able to accurately model the tilted structure essential to cyclone growth and decay. There is very little difference between the levels of skill of the ensemble mean and control for cyclone position, but the ensemble mean provides an advantage over the control for all EPSs except CPTEC in cyclone intensity and there is an advantage for propagation speed for all EPSs. ECMWF and JMA have an excellent spread–skill relationship for cyclone position. The EPSs are all much more underdispersive for cyclone intensity and propagation speed than for position, with ECMWF and CMC performing best for intensity and CMC performing best for propagation speed. ECMWF is the only EPS to consistently overpredict cyclone intensity, although the bias is small. BoM, NCEP, UKMO, and CPTEC significantly underpredict intensity and, interestingly, all the EPSs underpredict the propagation speed, that is, the cyclones move too slowly on average in all EPSs.

A study on the capacity of statistical offices of the Caribbean to produce Environment, Social, Economic and Gender Statistics

Statistical organizations of the Caribbean countries continue to face serious challenges posed by the increased demand for more relevant, accurate and timely statistical data. Tangible progress has been made in delivering key products in the area of economic statistics. The central banks of the subregion have assisted greatly in this respect. However, even in this branch of statistics there are still several glaring gaps. The situation is even worse in other areas of statistics including social and environmental statistics. Even though all countries of the subregion have committed to the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) as well as to other internationally agreed development goals serious challenges remain with respect to the compilation of the agreed indicators to assist in assessing progress towards the goals. It is acknowledged that appreciable assistance has been provided by the various donor agencies to develop statistical competence. This assistance has translated into the many gains that have been made. However, the national statistical organizations require much more help if they are to reach the plateau of self reliance in the production of the necessary statistical services. The governments of the subregion have also committed to invest more in statistical development and in promoting a statistics culture in the Caribbean. The training institutions of the subregion have also started to address this urgent need by broadening and deepening their teaching curricula. Funding support is urgently required to develop the appropriate cadre of statistical professionals to deliver the required outputs. However, this training must be continuous and must be sustained over an appropriate period since the current turnover of trained staff is high. This programme of training will need to be intensive for a period of at least five years after which it may be reduced. The modalities of training will also have to be more focused and in addition to formal training at educational institutions there is much room for on-the-job training, group training at the national level and much more south-south capacity building. There is also an urgent need to strengthen cooperation and collaboration among the donor community in the delivery of assistance for statistical development. Several development agencies with very good intentions are currently operating in the Caribbean. There is a danger however, that efforts can be duplicated if agencies do not collaborate adequately. Development agencies therefore need to consult with each other much more and share there development agenda more freely if duplication is to be averted. Moreover, the pooling of resources can surely maximize the benefits to the countries of the subregion.

The use of databases of social and gender statistics in the development of policies and programmes

The unavailability of data to inform policy planning and formulation has been repeatedly cited as the main challenge to economic and social progress in the Caribbean. Furthermore, even in instances when data is produced, broader gaps exist between its production and eventual use for evidence-based policy formulation. Owing to those challenges, this report explores the use of databases of social and gender statistics in the development of policies and programmes in the Caribbean subregion. The report offers a general appraisal of databases against two main considerations: (i) maximizing the use of existing databases in relevant policies and programmes; and (ii) bridging the gaps in data availability of relevant statistical databases and their analyses. The assessment entailed an inventory of social and gender databases maintained by data producers in the region and analysis of the extent to which the databases are used for policy formulation. To that end, a literature search as well as consultations with a number of knowledgeable persons active in the field of statistics and data provision was conducted. Based on the review, a set of recommendations were produced to improve current practices within the region with respect evidence based policy formulation.

Statistical Innovations Improve Prevalence Estimates of Nutrient Risk Populations: Applications in Sao Paulo, Brazil

The objective of this study was to estimate the prevalence of inadequate micronutrient intake and excess sodium intake among adults age 19 years and older in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Twenty-four hour dietary recall and sociodemographic data were collected from each participant (n=1,663) in a cross-sectional study, Inquiry of Health of Sao Paulo, of a representative sample of the adult population of the city of Sao Paulo in 2003 (ISA-2003). The variability in intake was measured through two replications of the 24-hour recall in a subsample of this population in 2007 (ISA-2007). Usual intake was estimated by the PC-SIDE program (version 1.0, 2003, Department of Statistics, Iowa State University), which uses an approach developed by Iowa State University. The prevalence of nutrient inadequacy was calculated using the Estimated Average Requirement cut-point method for vitamins A and C, thiamin, riboflavin, niacin, copper, phosphorus, and selenium. For vitamin D, pantothenic acid, manganese, and sodium, the proportion of individuals with usual intake equal to or more than the Adequate Intake value was calculated. The percentage of individuals with intake equal to more than the Tolerable Upper Intake Level was calculated for sodium. The highest prevalence of inadequacy for males and females, respectively, occurred for vitamin A (67% and 58%), vitamin C (52% and 62%), thiamin (41% and 50%), and riboflavin (29% and 19%). The adjustment for the within-person variation presented lower prevalence of inadequacy due to removal of within-person variability. All adult residents of Sao Paulo had excess sodium intake, and the rates of nutrient inadequacy were high for certain key micronutrients. J Acad Nutr Diet. 2012;112:1614-1618.

"Making Sense of Figures": Statistics, Computing and Information Technologies in Agriculture and Biology in Britain, 1920s-1960s

Throughout the twentieth century statistical methods have increasingly become part of experimental research. In particular, statistics has made quantification processes meaningful in the soft sciences, which had traditionally relied on activities such as collecting and describing diversity rather than timing variation. The thesis explores this change in relation to agriculture and biology, focusing on analysis of variance and experimental design, the statistical methods developed by the mathematician and geneticist Ronald Aylmer Fisher during the 1920s. The role that Fisher’s methods acquired as tools of scientific research, side by side with the laboratory equipment and the field practices adopted by research workers, is here investigated bottom-up, beginning with the computing instruments and the information technologies that were the tools of the trade for statisticians. Four case studies show under several perspectives the interaction of statistics, computing and information technologies, giving on the one hand an overview of the main tools – mechanical calculators, statistical tables, punched and index cards, standardised forms, digital computers – adopted in the period, and on the other pointing out how these tools complemented each other and were instrumental for the development and dissemination of analysis of variance and experimental design. The period considered is the half-century from the early 1920s to the late 1960s, the institutions investigated are Rothamsted Experimental Station and the Galton Laboratory, and the statisticians examined are Ronald Fisher and Frank Yates.

The impact of cancer on the population of Salvador-Bahia, Brazil

The impact of cancer on the population of Salvador-Bahia, Brazil was studied using mortality data available from the Brazilian National Bureau of Vital Statistics. Average annual site, age, and gender specific and adjusted cancer mortality rates were determined for the years 1977-83 and contrasted with United States cancer mortality rates for the year of 1977. The accuracy of the cancer mortality rates generated by this research was determined by comparing the underlying causes of death as coded on death certificates to pathology reports and to hospital diagnosis of a sample of 966 deaths occurring in Salvador during the year of 1983. To further explore the information available on the death certificate, a population based decedent case control study was used to determine the relationship between type of occupation (proxy for exposure) and mortality by cancer sites known to be occupationally related.^ The rates in Salvador for cancer of the stomach, oral cavity, and biliary passages are, on average, two fold higher than the U.S. rates.^ The death certificate was found to be accurate for 65 percent of the 485 cancer deaths studied. Thirty five histologically confirmed cancer deaths were found in a random sample of 481 deaths from other causes. This means that, approximately 700 more deaths may be lost among the remainder 10,073 death certificates stating a cause other than cancer.^ In addition, despite the known limitations of decedent case-control studies, cancers of the oral cavity OR = 2.44, CI = 1.17-5.09, stomach OR = 2.31, CI = 1.18-4.52, liver OR = 4.06, CI = 1.27-12.99, bladder OR = 6.77, CI = 1.5-30.67, and lymphoma OR = 2.55, CI = 1.04-6.25 had elevated point estimates, for different age strata indicating an association between these cancers and occupations that led to exposure to petroleum and its derivates. ^

Presence of three pesticides in rural drinking water sources in Kenya

A cross-sectional study on the use of three pesticides and their presence in drinking water sources was conducted in Githunguri/Kiaria community between January 1994-March 1995. The main objective of the study was to determine the extent to which some of the pesticides used by the Githunguri/Kiaria agricultural community were polluting their drinking water sources. Due to monetary and physical limitations, only DDT, its isomers and metabolites, carbofuran and carbaryl pesticides were identified and used as surrogates of pollution for the other pesticides.^ The study area was divided into high and low lying geographic surface areas. Thirty-four and 38 water sampling sites were randomly selected respectively. During wet and dry seasons, a total of 144 water samples were collected and analyzed at the Kenya Bureau of Standards Laboratory in Nairobi. Gas chromatography was used to analyze samples for possible presence of DDT, its isomers and metabolites, while high pressure liquid chromatography was used to analyze samples for carbofuran and carbaryl pesticides.^ Six sites testing positively for DDT, its isomers and metabolites represented 19.4% of the total sampled sites, with a mean concentration of 0.00310 ppb in the dry season and 0.0130 ppb in the wet season. All the six sites testing positively for the same pesticide exceeded the European maximum contaminant limit (MCL) in the wet season, and only one site exceeded the European MCL in the dry season.^ Those sites testing positively for carbofuran and carbaryl represented 5.6% of the total sampled sites. The mean concentration for the carbofuran at the sites was 2.500 ppb and 1.590 ppb in the dry and wet seasons respectively. Similarly, the mean concentration for carbaryl at the sites was 0.281 ppb in the dry season and 0.326 ppb in the wet season.^ One site testing positively for carbofuran exceeded the European MCL and WHO set limit in the wet season, while one site testing positively for the same pesticide exceeded the USA, Canada, European and WHO MCLs in the dry season. Similarly, one site which tested positively for carbaryl pesticide exceeded the European MCL in both seasons.^ Out of the 2,587 community members in the study area, 333 (13%) were exposed through their drinking water sources to the three pesticides investigated by this study. As a public health measure, integrated pest management approaches (IPM), protection of the wells and education of the community is necessary to minimize the pollution of the environment and safeguard the drinking water sources from pollution by the pesticides. ^