Standardized rainfall indices for the West and Central Sahel, and the Guinea Coast

For years, various indices of seasonal West African precipitation have served as useful predictors of the overall tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic Ocean. Since the mid-1990s, the correlation unexpectedly deteriorated. In the present study, statistical techniques are developed to describe the nonstationary nature of the correlations between annual measures of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity and three selected West African precipitation indices (namely, western Sahelian precipitation in June-September, central Sahelian precipitation in June-September, and Guinean coastal precipitation in the preceding year's August-November period). The correlations between these parameters are found to vary over the period from 1921 to 2007 on a range of time scales. Additionally, considerable year-to-year variability in the strength of these correlations is documented by selecting subsamples of years with respect to various meteorological factors. Broadly, in years when the environment in the main development region is generally favorable for enhanced tropical cyclogenesis (e.g., when sea surface temperatures are high, when there is relatively little wind shear through the depth of the troposphere, or when the relative vorticity in the midtroposphere is anomalously high), the correlations between indices of West African monsoon precipitation and Atlantic tropical cyclone activity are considerably weaker than in years when the overall conditions in the region are less conducive. Other more remote climate parameters, such as the phase of the Southern Oscillation, are less effective at modulating the nature of these interactions.

(Appendix) Vertebral number of topsmelt, Atherinops affinis, adults and offspring from different latitudes along the North-American Pacific coast

Organisms that are distributed across spatial climate gradients often exhibit adaptive local variations in morphological and physiological traits, but to what extent such gradients shape evolutionary responses is still unclear. Given the strong natural contrast in latitudinal temperature gradients between the North-American Pacific and Atlantic coast, we asked how increases in vertebral number (VN, known as Jordan's Rule) with latitude would differ between Pacific (Atherinops affinis) and Atlantic Silversides (Menidia menidia), two ecologically equivalent and taxonomically similar fishes with similar latitudinal distributions. VN was determined from radiographs of wild-caught adults (genetic + environmental differences) and its genetic basis confirmed by rearing offspring in common garden experiments. Compared to published data on VN variation in M. menidia (a mean increase of 7.0 vertebrae from 32 to 46°N, VN slope = 0.42/lat), the latitudinal VN increase in Pacific Silversides was approximately half as strong (a mean increase of 3.3 vertebrae from 28 to 43°N, VN slope = 0.23/lat). This mimicked the strong Atlantic (1.11°C/lat) versus weak Pacific latitudinal gradient (0.40°C/lat) in median annual sea surface temperature (SST). Importantly, the relationship of VN to SST was not significantly different between the two species (average slope = -0.39 vertebrae/°C), thus suggesting a common thermal dependency of VN in silverside fishes. Our findings provide novel support for the hypothesis that temperature gradients are the ultimate cause of Jordan's Rule, even though its exact adaptive significance remains speculative. A second investigated trait, the mode of sex determination in Atlantic versus Pacific Silversides, revealed patterns that were inconsistent with our expectation: M. menidia displays temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) at low latitudes, where growing seasons are long or unconstrained, but also a gradual shift to genetic sex determination (GSD) with increasing latitude due to more and more curtailed growing seasons. Sex ratios in A. affinis, on the other hand, were independent of latitude and rearing temperature (indicating GSD), even though growing seasons are thermally unconstrained across most of the geographical distribution of A. affinis. This suggests that additional factors (e.g., longevity) play an important role in shaping the mode of sex determination in silverside fishes.