The predicting power of models for eutrophication

Restoration of water-bodies from eutrophication has proved to be extremely difficult. Mathematical models have been used extensively to provide guidance for management decisions. The aim of this paper is to elucidate important problems of using models for predicting environmental changes. First, the necessity for a proper uncertainty assessment of the model, upon calibration, has not been widely recognized. Predictions must not be a single time trajectory; they should be a band, expressing system uncertainty and natural variability. Availability of this information may alter the decision to be taken. Second, even with well-calibrated models, there is no guarantee they will give correct projections in situations where the model is used to predict the effects of measures designed to bring the system into an entirely different ”operating point”, as is typically the case in eutrophication abatement. The concept of educated speculation is introduced to partially overcome this difficulty. Lake Veluwe is used as a case to illustrate the point. Third, as questions become more detailed, such as ”what about expected algal composition”, there is a greater probability of running into fundamental problems that are associated with predicting the behaviour of complex non-linear systems. Some of these systems show extreme initial condition sensitivity and even, perhaps, chaotic behaviour, and are therefore fundamentally unpredictable.

Of angels and demons: Virginia Woolfs homicidal legacy in Sylvia Plaths: The bell jar.

Esta dissertação é um estudo comparativo do legado vitoriano deixado para as escritoras do século XX, Virginia Woolf e Sylvia Plath. Primeiro discutem-se as agências controladoras do corpo feminino na era vitoriana e a formação de um ideal de feminilidade que chamamos de Anjo do Lar. Em seguida, discute-se como Virginia Woolf apreende essa imagem e a subverte, criando seu duplo, que chamamos de Demônio do Lar. Por fim, promovemos o diálogo entre Sylvia Plath e Virginia Woolf. Plath parece escrever aos moldes de Woolf, criando uma literatura de morte, feita para assassinar o Anjo do Lar. Usamos para tal estudo o conceito de écriture féminine, criado pelas francófonas Hélène Cixous, Luce Irigaray, e Julia Kristeva, entre outras, para traçar os paralelos entre um lugar para o feminino na escrita e a busca de uma tradição por Woolf. A abjeção de Kristeva, a dinâmica de poder entre alma e corpo de Foucault e o conceito de duplo de Otto Rank nos ajudarão, por fim, a entender como se dá a morte do Anjo na literatura, especificamente no romance A redoma de vidro (1963) de Sylvia Plath

Intensity-moments characterization of general pulsed paraxial beams with the Wigner distribution function

On the basis of the space-time Wigner distribution function (STWDF), we use the matrix formalism to study the propagation laws for the intensity moments of quasi-monochromatic and polychromatic pulsed paraxial beams. The advantages of this approach are reviewed. Also, a least-squares fitting method for interpreting the physical meaning of the effective curvature matrix is described by means of the STWDF. Then the concept is extended to the higher-order situation, and what me believe is a novel technique for characterizing the beam phase is presented. (C) 1999 Optical Society of America [S0740-3232(99)001009-1].

Report on the workshop of tuna-dolphin interactions

ENGLISH: In April 1981 the IATTC convened a working group of scientists in Managua, Nicaragua to discuss the tuna-dolphin association and to suggest priorities for future research which would enable the effects of any interaction to be detected or quantified. The yellowfin tuna, Thunnus albacares, fishery in the eastern tropical Pacific is unique in that a significant proportion of the catch is of fish found in association with one or more species of dolphins. This association has never been fully understood but for many years tuna fishermen have used the more visible and more easily herded dolphin schools to help them locate and capture the tuna. In recent years, the concept of managing renewable resources in relation to their environments has been more fully developed. Any renewable resource is closely linked to other components in its general system and it is becoming increasingly more apparent that the harvesting of one resource affects another. This is the case with yellowfin tuna and dolphins in the eastern tropical Pacific, although the dolphins are killed incidental to the fishery and are not harvested. There would seem to be obvious advantages in managing the tuna-dolphin complex as a whole. To do this it is necessary to understand the effect that tuna and dolphins have on each other and the causal mechanisms of the interactions. SPANISH: En abril de 1981, la CIAT convoco un grupo de trabajo de investigadores en Managua (Nicaragua), para deliberar sobre la asociación atún-delfín e indicar prioridades referentes a una investigación futura que pueda facilitar la cuantificación o el reconocimiento de los efectos de cualquier interacción. La pesca del atún aleta amarilla Thunnus albacares en el Pacifico oriental tropical, es única, ya que una proporción importante de su captura es de peces encontrados en asociación con una o mas especies de delfines. No se ha logrado comprender cabalmente esta asociación, pero por varios anos los pescadores atuneros han utilizado los cardúmenes de delfines que son mas visibles y que pueden agruparse mas fácilmente para poder localizar y capturar los atunes. En los últimos anos, el concepto de administrar los recursos renovables con relación a su ambiente, ha tenido mas auge. Cualquier recurso renovable se vincula estrechamente a otros componentes en el sistema general y actualmente es mas evidente que la explotación de un recurso afecta otro. Este es el caso del atún aleta amarilla y de los delfines en el Pacifico oriental tropical aunque los delfines mueren incidentalmente con relación a la pesca y no son explotados. Parece que se obtendr1an ventajas evidentes si se administrara como un todo el conjunto atún-delfín. Para realizar esto es necesario comprender los efectos que tienen los atunes y delfines los unos sabre los otros y los mecanismos causantes de la interacción.

Population structure of chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) across the Pacific Rim, determined from microsatellite analysis

The Pacific Rim population structure of chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) was examined with a survey of microsatellite variation to describe the distribution of genetic variation and to evaluate whether chum salmon may have originated from two or more glacial refuges following dispersal to newly available habitat after glacial retreat. Variation at 14 microsatellite loci was surveyed for over 53,000 chum salmon sampled from over 380 localities ranging from Korea through Washington State. An index of genetic differentiation, FST, over all populations and loci was 0.033, with individual locus values ranging from 0.009 to 0.104. The most genetically diverse chum salmon were observed from Asia, particularly Japan, whereas chum salmon from the Skeena River and Queen Charlotte Islands in northern British Columbia and those from Washington State displayed the fewest number of alleles compared with chum salmon in other regions. Differentiation in chum salmon allele frequencies among regions and populations within regions was approximately 18 times greater than that of annual variation within populations. A regional structuring of populations was the general pattern observed, with chum salmon spawning in different tributaries within a major river drainage or spawning in smaller rivers in a geographic area generally more similar to each other than to populations in different major river drainages or geographic areas. Population structure of chum salmon on a Pacific Rim basis supports the concept of a minimum of two refuges, northern and southern, during the last glaciation, but four possible refuges fit better the observed distribution of genetic variation. The distribution of microsatellite variation of chum salmon on a Pacific Rim basis likely reflects the origins of salmon radiating from refuges after the last glaciation period.

On the Stability and Equilibrium Points of Multistaged SI (n) R Epidemic Models

This paper relies on the concept of next generation matrix defined ad hoc for a new proposed extended SEIR model referred to as SI(n)R-model to study its stability. The model includes n successive stages of infectious subpopulations, each one acting at the exposed subpopulation of the next infectious stage in a cascade global disposal where each infectious population acts as the exposed subpopulation of the next infectious stage. The model also has internal delays which characterize the time intervals of the coupling of the susceptible dynamics with the infectious populations of the various cascade infectious stages. Since the susceptible subpopulation is common, and then unique, to all the infectious stages, its coupled dynamic action on each of those stages is modeled with an increasing delay as the infectious stage index increases from 1 to n. The physical interpretation of the model is that the dynamics of the disease exhibits different stages in which the infectivity and the mortality rates vary as the individual numbers go through the process of recovery, each stage with a characteristic average time.

A fisheries co-management case study from The Gambia

User involvement in fisheries management has been around for some time, but few analytical papers have been published on the subject in Africa. Most of these initiatives fall under the rubric of co-management. But what is the concept of co-management in theory and how does it work in practice? In reviewing a comprehensive artisanal fisheries development project, we will attempt to answer this question in the context of The Gambia.

A Century of Copepods: The U.S. Fisheries Steamer Albatross

The marine invertebrates of North America received little attention before the arrival of Louis Agassiz in 1846. Agassiz and his students, particularly Addison E. Verrill and Richard Rathbun, and Agassiz's colleague Spencer F. Baird, provided the concept and stimulus for expanded investigations. Baird's U.S. Commission of Fish and Fisheries (1871) provided a principal means, especially through the U.S. Fisheries Steamer Albatross (1882). Rathbun participated in the first and third Albatrossscientific cruises in 1883-84 and published the fist accounts of Albatross parasitic copepods. The first report of Albatross planktonic copepods was published in 1895 by Wilhelm Giesbrecht of the Naples Zoological Station. Other collections were sent to the Norwegian Georg Ossian Sars. The American Charles Branch Wilson eventually added planktonic copepods to his extensive published works on the parasitic copepods from the Albatross. The Albatross copepods from San Francisco Bay were reported upon by Calvin Olin Esterly in 1924. Henry Bryant Bigelow accompanied the last scientific cruise of the Albatross in 1920. Bigelow incorporated the 1920 copepods into his definitive study of the plankton of the Gulf of Maine. The late Otohiko Tanaka, in 1969, published two reviews of Albatross copepods. Albatross copepods will long be worked and reworked. This great ship and her shipmates were mutually inspiring, and they inspire us still.

The River Axe SAP Consultation Document

This is the River Axe Salmon Action Plan Consultation document produced by the Environment Agency in 2003. The report pays attention on the external consultation of the River Axe Salmon Action Plan (SAP). This strategy represents an entirely new approach to salmon management within the UK and introduces the concept of river-specific salmon spawning targets as a salmon management tool. This document is part of a national initiative to produce action plans for the management of all the main salmon rivers of England and Wales by 2003. The aim of this plan is (i) to assess the status of the salmon stocks and fisheries of the River Axe - including the use of Conservation Limits as part of this process, (ii) to identify factors which may be limiting stock and fishery performance and (iii) to propose remedial measures address these factors. The salmon stock of the River Axe was apparently in a healthy state in the 1950s, supporting net and rod fisheries with average annual catches of around 100 and 50 fish respectively. Catches declined through the 1970s and 1980s to the extent where no salmon were recorded in the late 1980s and early 1990s. This decline was probably due largely to the effects of agricultural pollution, which virtually extinguished the salmon stock of the River Axe. Water quality has subsequently improved, but has deteriorated again in recent years.

The River Dart SAP Consultation Document

This is the River Dart Salmon Action Plan Consultation document produced by the Environment Agency in 2003. The report pays attention on the external consultation of the River Dart Salmon Action Plan (SAP). This strategy represents an entirely new approach to salmon management within the UK and introduces the concept of river-specific salmon spawning targets as a salmon management tool. The north of the River Dart catchment is included in the Dartmoor candidate Special Area of Conservation (cSAC), designated under the Council EC Directive 92/43/EEC, the “Habitats Directive”. One of the conservation objectives for the cSAC is to maintain the habitat for Atlantic Salmon, Salmo Salar in favourable condition. The River Dart is an important salmon, sea trout and brown trout fishery with no significant coarse fishery. However, eels are ubiquitous throughout the catchment and are lightly exploited. The River Dart SAP contains a description of the river catchment and highlights particular features that are relevant to the salmon population and the associated fishery.

The River Exe SAP Consultation Document

This is the River Exe Salmon Action Plan Consultation document produced by the Environment Agency in 2003. The report pays attention on the external consultation of the River Exe Salmon Action Plan (SAP). This strategy represents an entirely new approach to salmon management within the UK and introduces the concept of river-specific salmon spawning targets as a salmon management tool. The River Exe SAP follows the format of those completed for the Rivers Teign, Torridge, Taw and Dart. It is the fifth of eight action plans that will be produced for salmon rivers within Devon Area. The River Exe SAP contains a description of the river catchment and highlights particular features that are relevant to the salmon population and the associated fishery. The Exe salmon stock is judged to be meeting its Conservation Limit. However, this assessment is uncertain as it is based on an estimate of rod exploitation rate, which in itself is also uncertain. At present there is no means of accurately assessing the River Exe salmon run. In common with many other rivers, estimation of stock using catch statistics and rod exploitation rate is the model used, when direct assessment is not possible. The installation of a fish counter on the lower river, or the use of other direct counting methods, would help to provide a direct assessment of the annual run of salmon into the river. This would improve our ability to estimate the spawning escapement and hence assess compliance with the Conservation Limit.

The River Lyn SAP Consultation Document

This is the River Lyn Salmon Action Plan Consultation document produced by the Environment Agency in 2003. The report pays attention on the external consultation of the River Lyn Salmon Action Plan (SAP). This approach to salmon management within the England and Wales introduces the concept of river-specific Conservation Limits as a method of assessing the status of the salmon stock. The River Lyn Salmon Action Plan follows the format of those completed for the Rivers Exe, Axe, Avon & Erme, Teign, Torridge, Taw and Dart. It is the last of eight action plans that have been produced for salmon rivers within Devon Area. The River Lyn Salmon Action Plan contains a description of the river catchment and highlights particular features that are relevant to the salmon population and the associated fishery. The Lyn salmon stock is judged to be meeting its Conservation Limit. However, this assessment is uncertain as it is based on an estimate of rod exploitation rate, which in itself is also uncertain.

The River Taw SAP Consultation Document

This is the River Taw Salmon Action Plan Consultation document produced by the Environment Agency in 2000. The report pays attention on the external consultation of the River Taw Salmon Action Plan (SAP). This approach to salmon management within the England and Wales introduces the concept of river-specific Conservation Limits as a method of assessing the status of the salmon stock. The River Taw Salmon Action Plan (SAP) includes a description of the current status of the rod and net fisheries and historical trends. The Taw salmon stock has declined since the 1960s and is currently failing to meet the spawning target. The decline in the spring fish component has accounted largely for the overall decrease in stocks. The reasons for the decline are unclear, but the spring fish problem is recognised as a national issue. The rate of survival over the marine phase has reduced in recent years for both the grilse and MSW components. This is undoubtedly a contributory factor, which may now constrain stocks to lower levels than have existed historically.

The River Teign SAP Consultation Document

This is the River Teign Salmon Action Plan Consultation document produced by the Environment Agency in 2003. The report pays attention on the external consultation of the River Teign Salmon Action Plan (SAP). This approach to salmon management within the England and Wales introduces the concept of river-specific Conservation Limits as a method of assessing the status of the salmon stock. The River Teign Salmon Action Plan follows the format of those completed for the Rivers Torridge, Taw and Dart. It is the fourth of eight action plans that will be produced for salmon rivers within the Devon Area Fisheries, Recreation and Biodiversity Team. The River Teign SAP contains a description of the river catchment and highlights particular features that are relevant to the salmon population and the associated fishery. The Teign salmon stock is currently failing to meet its conservation limit. This failure is largely attributed to the reduction in the survival rate during the marine phase of the salmon life cycle. This is likely to constrain stocks to lower levels than have existed historically. Still further catch controls may contribute to a reduction in exploitation rates and allow stocks to recover to meet their conservation limit. Other important actions include the continuation of habitat improvement works which aim to maximise spawning habitat utilisation, spawning success, and juvenile survival and production.

James's rule and causes and consequences of a latitudinal cline in the demography of John's Snapper (Lutjanus johnii) in coastal waters of Australia

Demographic parameters were derived from sectioned otoliths of John’s Snapper (Lutjanus johnii) from 4 regions across 9° of latitude and 23° of longitude in northern Australia. Latitudinal variation in size and growth rates of this species greatly exceeded longitudinal variation. Populations of John’s Snapper farthest from the equator had the largest body sizes, in line with James’s rule, and the fastest growth rates, contrary to the temperature-size rule for ectotherms. A maximum age of 28.6 years, nearly 3 times previous estimates, was recorded and the largest individual was 990 mm in fork length. Females grew to a larger mean asymptotic fork length (L∞) than did males, a finding consistent with functional gonochorism. Otolith weight at age and gonad weight at length followed the same latitudinal trends seen in length at age. Length at maturity was ~72–87% of L∞ and varied by ~23% across the full latitudinal gradient, but age at first maturity was consistently in the range of 6–10 years, indicating that basic growth trajectories were similar across vastly different environments. We discuss both the need for complementary reproductive data in age-based studies and the insights gained from experiments where the concept of oxygen- and capacity-limited thermal tolerance is applied to explain the mechanistic causes of James’s rule in tropical fish species.