Strategy selection: An introduction to the modeling challenge

Modeling the mechanisms that determine how humans and other agents choose among different behavioral and cognitive processes-be they strategies, routines, actions, or operators-represents a paramount theoretical stumbling block across disciplines, ranging from the cognitive and decision sciences to economics, biology, and machine learning. By using the cognitive and decision sciences as a case study, we provide an introduction to what is also known as the strategy selection problem. First, we explain why many researchers assume humans and other animals to come equipped with a repertoire of behavioral and cognitive processes. Second, we expose three descriptive, predictive, and prescriptive challenges that are common to all disciplines which aim to model the choice among these processes. Third, we give an overview of different approaches to strategy selection. These include cost‐benefit, ecological, learning, memory, unified, connectionist, sequential sampling, and maximization approaches. We conclude by pointing to opportunities for future research and by stressing that the selection problem is far from being resolved.

Laboratory Investigation of Concrete Beam-End Treatments, RB08-013, 2015

The ends of prestressed concrete beams under expansion joints are often exposed to moisture and chlorides. Left unprotected, the moisture and chlorides come in contact with the ends of the prestressing strands and/or the mild reinforcing, resulting in corrosion. Once deterioration begins, it progresses unless some process is employed to address it. Deterioration can lead to loss of bearing area and therefore a reduction in bridge capacity. Previous research has looked into the use of concrete coatings (silanes, epoxies, fiber-reinforced polymers, etc.) for protecting prestressed concrete beam ends but found that little to no laboratory research has been done related to the performance of these coatings in this specific type of application. The Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT) currently specifies coating the ends of exposed prestressed concrete beams with Sikagard 62 (a high-build, protective, solvent-free, epoxy coating) at the precast plant prior to installation on the bridge. However, no physical testing of Sikagard 62 in this application has been completed. In addition, the Iowa DOT continues to see deterioration in the prestressed concrete beam ends, even those treated with Sikagard 62. The goals of this project were to evaluate the performance of the Iowa DOT-specified beam-end coating as well as other concrete coating alternatives based on the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) T259-80 chloride ion penetration test and to test their performance on in-service bridges throughout the duration of the project. In addition, alternative beam-end forming details were developed and evaluated for their potential to mitigate and/or eliminate the deterioration caused by corrosion of the prestressing strands on prestressed concrete beam ends used in bridges with expansion joints. The alternative beam-end details consisted of individual strand blockouts, an individual blockout for a cluster of strands, dual blockouts for two clusters of strands, and drilling out the strands after they are flush cut. The goal of all of the forming alternatives was to offset the ends of the prestressing strands from the end face of the beam and then cover them with a grout/concrete layer, thereby limiting or eliminating their exposure to moisture and chlorides.

Breeding strategies for recurrent selection of maize

The objectives of this work were to analyze theoretical genetic gains of maize due to recurrent selection among full-sib and half-sib families, obtained by Design I, Full-Sib Design and Half-Sib Design, and genotypic variability and gene loss with long term selection. The designs were evaluated by simulation, based on average estimated gains after ten selection cycles. The simulation process was based on seven gene systems with ten genes (with distinct degrees of dominance), three population classes (with different gene frequencies), under three environmental conditions (heritability values), and four selection strategies. Each combination was repeated ten times, amounting to 25, 200 simulations. Full-sib selection is generally more efficient than half-sib selection, mainly with favorable dominant genes. The use of full-sib families derived by Design I is generally more efficient than using progenies obtained by Full-Sib Design. Using Design I with 50 males and 200 females (effective size of 160) did not result in improved populations with minimum genotypic variability. In the populations with lower effective size (160 and 400) the loss of favorable genes was restricted to recessive genes with reduced frequencies.

Inheritance pattern and selection criteria for resistance to soybean cyst nematode races 3 and 9

The objective of this work was to determine soybean resistance inheritance to Heterodera glycines Ichinohe (soybean cyst nematode - SCN) races 3 and 9, as well as to evaluate the efficiency of direct and indirect selection in a soybean population of 112 recombinant inbred lines (RIL) derived from the resistant cultivar Hartwig. The experiment was conducted in a completely randomized design, in Londrina, PR, Brazil. The estimated narrow-sense heritabilities for resistance to races 3 and 9 were 80.67 and 77.97%. The genetic correlation coefficient (r g = 0.17; p<0.01) shows that some genetic components of resistance to these two races are inherited together. The greatest genetic gain by indirect selection was obtained to race 9, selecting to race 3 due to simpler inheritance of resistance to race 9 and not because these two races share common resistance genes. The resistance of cultivar Hartwig to races 3 and 9 is determined by 4 and 2 genes, respectively. One of these genes confers resistance to both races, explaining a fraction of the significant genetic correlation found between resistance to these SCN races. The inheritance pattern described indicates that selection for resistance to SCN must be performed for each race individually.

Allohexaploid pearl millet x elephantgrass population potential for a recurrent selection program

The objective of this work was to evaluate the potential of allohexaploid pearl millet x elephantgrass (HGL) population for a recurrent selection program through open-pollinated progenies. Seventy-eight progenies, one representative sample of the population, and two commercial cultivars, Pioneiro and Paraíso, were evaluated in a 9x9 triple lattice design, in two sites. Plant height and dry matter yield were evaluated in three and four cuts, respectively. For plant height, the 17 best progenies were similar to both commercial controls, while for dry matter yield they were higher than 'Paraíso' and lower than 'Pioneiro'. The correlation between progenies and cuts indicated that the fourth cut represents the mean of all cuts, and the possibility of using early selection. Heritability estimates considering cuts and sites were 56.9% for plant height and 58.8% for dry matter yield, and the expected response to selection was 23.4% for dry matter yield and 18.1% for plant height. These results demonstrate the promising HGL population potential for a recurrent selection program.

The branch-site test of positive selection is surprisingly robust but lacks power under synonymous substitution saturation and variation in GC

Positive selection is widely estimated from protein coding sequence alignments by the nonsynonymous-to-synonymous ratio omega. Increasingly elaborate codon models are used in a likelihood framework for this estimation. Although there is widespread concern about the robustness of the estimation of the omega ratio, more efforts are needed to estimate this robustness, especially in the context of complex models. Here, we focused on the branch-site codon model. We investigated its robustness on a large set of simulated data. First, we investigated the impact of sequence divergence. We found evidence of underestimation of the synonymous substitution rate for values as small as 0.5, with a slight increase in false positives for the branch-site test. When dS increases further, underestimation of dS is worse, but false positives decrease. Interestingly, the detection of true positives follows a similar distribution, with a maximum for intermediary values of dS. Thus, high dS is more of a concern for a loss of power (false negatives) than for false positives of the test. Second, we investigated the impact of GC content. We showed that there is no significant difference of false positives between high GC (up to similar to 80%) and low GC (similar to 30%) genes. Moreover, neither shifts of GC content on a specific branch nor major shifts in GC along the gene sequence generate many false positives. Our results confirm that the branch-site is a very conservative test.

Iowa Pavement Asset Management Decision-Making Framework & Pavement Treatment Selection Tool for Local Agencies, TR-651, 2015

Most local agencies in Iowa currently make their pavement treatment decisions based on their limited experience due primarily to lack of a systematic decision-making framework and a decision-aid tool. The lack of objective condition assessment data of agency pavements also contributes to this problem. This study developed a systematic pavement treatment selection framework for local agencies to assist them in selecting the most appropriate treatment and to help justify their maintenance and rehabilitation decisions. The framework is based on an extensive literature review of the various pavement treatment techniques in terms of their technical applicability and limitations, meaningful practices of neighboring states, and the results of a survey of local agencies. The treatment selection framework involves three different steps: pavement condition assessment, selection of technically feasible treatments using decision trees, and selection of the most appropriate treatment considering the return-on-investment (ROI) and other non-economic factors. An Excel-based spreadsheet tool that automates the treatment selection framework was also developed, along with a standalone user guide for the tool. The Pavement Treatment Selection Tool (PTST) for Local Agencies allows users to enter the severity and extent levels of existing distresses and then, recommends a set of technically feasible treatments. The tool also evaluates the ROI of each feasible treatment and, if necessary, it can also evaluate the non-economic value of each treatment option to help determine the most appropriate treatment for the pavement. It is expected that the framework and tool will help local agencies improve their pavement asset management practices significantly and make better economic and defensible decisions on pavement treatment selection.

Selection strategies of segregant soybean populations for resistance to Asian rust

The objective of this work was to identify the best selection strategies for the more promising parental combinations to obtain lines with good resistance to soybean Asian rust (Phakopsora pachyrhizi). Two experiments were carried out in the field during the 2006/2007 and 2007/2008 growing seasons, to determine the percentage of infected leaf area of individual plants of five parents and their segregant F2 and F3 populations. The data obtained indicates that additive genetic variance predominates in the control of soybean resistance to Asian rust, and that the year and time of assessment do not significantly influence the estimates of the genetic parameters obtained. The narrow-sense heritability (h²r) ranged from 23.12 to 55.83%, and indicates the possibility of successful selection of resistant individuals in the early generations of the breeding program. All the procedures used to select the most promising populations to generate superior inbred lines for resistance to P. pachyrhizi presented similar results and identified the BR01-18437 x BRS 232 population as the best for inbred line selection.

Leaf plasticity in successive selection cycles of 'Saracura' maize in response to periodic soil flooding

The objective of this work was to assess the effect of successive selection cycles on leaf plasticity of 'Saracura' maize BRS-4154 under periodical flooding in field conditions. Soil flooding started at the six-leaf stage with the application of a 20-cm depth water layer three times a week. At flowering, samples of leaves were collected and fixed. Paradermic and transverse sections were observed under photonic microscope. Several changes were observed throughout the selection cycles, such as modifications in the number and size of the stomata, higher amount of vascular bundles and the resulting decrease of the distance between them, smaller diameter of the metaxylem, decrease of cuticle and epidermis thickness, decrease of number and size of bulliform cells, increase of phloem thickness, smaller sclerenchyma area. Therefore, the successive selection cycles of 'Saracura' maize resulted in changes in the leaf anatomy, which might be favorable to the plant's tolerance to the intermittent flooding of the soil.

Habitat fragmentation, ecology and sexual selection in forest bird species in Monteverde, Costa Rica

Abstract Forest fragmentation is often associated with local extinction and changes in species abundance patterns. The main topic of this thesis is the effect of forest fragmentation on birds in Monteverde, Costa Rica. This thesis also studies aspects of sexual selection and ecology of Long-tailed Manakins, Chiroxiphia Linearis. Chapter 1 investigates bird species assemblages in two degrees of forest fragmentation. It is shown that the distribution, abundance and diversity of forest bird species are strongly influenced by the amount of forest in the landscape matrix. Presence of cattle within the forest influences the presence of some bird species. The prevalence and intensity of ticks and blood parasites on birds in relation to fragmentation is described in Chapter 2. Overall tick prevalence is 3%. Understory birds are significantly more infested with ticks than species at intermediate heights. Tick prevalence on birds does not differ significantly between two degrees of forest fragmentation and individual tick loads tend to be higher in High- than in Low-fragmentation sites. Infestations by the blood parasites Haemoproteus sp. was low except in white-eared ground sparrow, Melozone leucotis, that is 28% and is significantly higher in High- than in Low-fragmentation sites. In chapter 3 results on the ecology and habitat movements of the Bare-necked Umbrellabird, Cephalopterus glabricollis, are presented. The abundance of umbrellabirds at high elevations during the breeding season coincides with the highest peak of fruit abundance. Birds leave the protected area during the non-breeding season moving to unprotected forest fragments. In chapter 4 ontogenetic changes in feather morphology through sexual maturity in Long-tailed Manakins are described. In adult males, rectrices length is positively correlated to testis volume. Changes in male morphology during ontogeny in the long-tailed manakin appear to be associated with their specific-display behaviours. Significant interpopulation differences in the morphology of Long-tailed Manakins are shown in chapter 5. These differences are more accentuated in morphological traits related to flight displays. A field experiment demonstrates that long rectrices impose flying costs for males and females. A reduction in flying ability was found to be strongest in males from a population presenting the highest degree of sexual dimorphism. Résumé La fragmentation des forêts est souvent associée avec des modifications dans l'abondance des espèces et des extinctions locales. Le thème principale de cette thèse est l'étude de l'effet de la fragmentation des forêts sur les oiseaux de Monteverde, Costa Rica. Elle décrit par ailleurs certains aspects de la sélection sexuelle et l'écologie du manakin à longue queue, Chiroxiphia linearis. Dans le Chapitre 1 je montre que la distribution, l'abondance et la diversité des assemblages d'oiseaux vivant dans la forêt sont fortement influencées pas le degré de fragmentation de celle ci. Par ailleurs, la présence ou l'absence de bétail dans les forêts influence la présence de certaines espèces d'oiseaux. Dans le chapitre 2 j'ai étudié la prévalence et l'intensité d'infestation par des tiques ainsi que la présence de parasites sanguins chez les oiseaux en relation avec la fragmentation des forêts. La prévalence globale de tiques est de 3 %, les oiseaux vivant au niveau du sol étaient plus souvent infectés par des tiques que les espèces se déplaçant à un niveau plus élevé. La prévalence de tiques sur les oiseaux n'était pas significativement différente entre les paysages avec différentes fragmentations. Les parasites sanguins du genre Haemoproteus sp. étaient présents à très basse fréquence à l'exception chez Melozone leucotis ou la prevalence était de 28% et significativement plus élevée chez les oiseaux vivant dans les forêts à forte fragmentation. Dans le Chapitre 3 je présente des résultats sur l'écologie et les mouvements entre habitats chez le "Bare-necked umbrellabird", Cephalopterus glabricollis. Cette espèce endémique du Costa Rica niche à haute altitude durant la période d'abondance des fruits et réalise une migration altitudinale vers des zones basses durant la saison de non reproduction. Dans le chapitre 4 je présente les changements ontogénétiques dans la morphologie du plumage des manakins à longue queue. Chez les mâles, les changements de morphologie semblent être associés avec leurs comportements de parade spécifiques. Dans le chapitre 5 je présente des différences morphologiques significative entre deux populations chez le manakin à longue queue et je montre que la capacité de vols chez les mâles est plus fortement influencée dans la population avec le degré de dimorphisme sexuel le plus prononcé.

In vitro negative selection of viral superantigen-reactive thymocytes by thymic dendritic cells.

Intrathymic expression of endogenous mouse mammary tumor virus (MMTV)-encoded superantigens (SAg) induces the clonal deletion of T cells bearing SAg-reactive T-cell receptor (TCR) Vbeta elements. However, the identity of the thymic antigen-presenting cells (APC) involved in the induction of SAg tolerance remains to be defined. We have analyzed the potential of dendritic cells (DC) to mediate the clonal deletion of Mtv-7-reactive TCR alphabeta P14 transgenic thymocytes in an in vitro assay. Our results show that both thymic and splenic DC induced the deletion of TCR transgenic double positive (DP) thymocytes. DC appear to be more efficient than splenic B cells as negatively selecting APC in this experimental system. Interestingly, thymic and splenic DC display a differential ability to induce CD4+ SP thymocyte proliferation. These observations suggest that thymic DC may have an important role in the induction of SAg tolerance in vivo.

Parent selection for cocoa resistance to witches'-broom

The objective of this work was to identify genotypes with high general combining ability for resistance to witches'-broom (Moniliophthora perniciosa) in populations formed from a first cycle of recurrent selection. Highly productive and resistant clones from different origins were interbred using the North Carolina II design. The clones SCA 6, CSUL 7, RB 39, CEPEC 89, OC 67, BE 4, EEG 29 and ICS 98 were used as paternal parents, while the maternal ones were NA 33, CCN 10, IMC 67, P 4B, CCN 51, CEPEC 86, SGU 54 and ICS 9. Twenty days after germination, 56 seedlings of each cross (four replicates of 14 seedlings) received the inoculation of a 1-mL suspension with 7.5x10(4 ) basidiospores mL-1. Symptoms were evaluated 60 days after inoculation. Significant differences were observed among paternal and among maternal parents, for resistance to witches'-broom assessed according to the proportion of progeny seedlings with the disease symptoms. Differences were also observed between groups of mothers or fathers previously defined as resistant, and groups previously defined as susceptible. It is possible to obtain a combination of genes that can increase the level of resistance to witches'-broom directly from the first cycle of recurrent selection.