993 resultados para Bayesian logistic regression
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Age and sex have been identified as predictors of outcome in malignant melanoma (MM). This aim of this multicentre, cross-sectional study was to analyse the role of age and sex as explanatory variables for the diagnosis of thin MM. A total of 2430 patients with MM were recruited. Cases of in situ-T1 MM were more frequent than T2-T4 MM (56.26% vs. 43.74%). Breslow thickness increased throughout decades of life (analysis of variance (ANOVA) p < 0.001), with a weak correlation between Breslow thickness and patient's age (r = 0.202, p < 0.001). Breslow thickness was significantly less in women (1.79 vs. 2.38 mm, p = 0.0001). Binary logistic regression showed a significant (p < 0.001) odds ratio for age 0-29 years (1.18), and 30-59 years (1.16), and for women (1.09). Age and sex explained 3.64% of the variation observed in Tis-T1 frequency (R2 = 0.0364). Age and sex appear to explain a low percentage of the variation in the early detection of MM.
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Immigrants from high-burden countries and HIV-coinfected individuals are risk groups for tuberculosis (TB) in countries with low TB incidence. Therefore, we studied their role in transmission of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in Switzerland. We included all TB patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort and a sample of patients from the national TB registry. We identified molecular clusters by spoligotyping and mycobacterial interspersed repetitive-unit-variable-number tandem-repeat (MIRU-VNTR) analysis and used weighted logistic regression adjusted for age and sex to identify risk factors for clustering, taking sampling proportions into account. In total, we analyzed 520 TB cases diagnosed between 2000 and 2008; 401 were foreign born, and 113 were HIV coinfected. The Euro-American M. tuberculosis lineage dominated throughout the study period (378 strains; 72.7%), with no evidence for another lineage, such as the Beijing genotype, emerging. We identified 35 molecular clusters with 90 patients, indicating recent transmission; 31 clusters involved foreign-born patients, and 15 involved HIV-infected patients. Birth origin was not associated with clustering (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.58; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.73 to 3.43; P = 0.25, comparing Swiss-born with foreign-born patients), but clustering was reduced in HIV-infected patients (aOR, 0.49; 95% CI, 0.26 to 0.93; P = 0.030). Cavitary disease, male sex, and younger age were all associated with molecular clustering. In conclusion, most TB patients in Switzerland were foreign born, but transmission of M. tuberculosis was not more common among immigrants and was reduced in HIV-infected patients followed up in the national HIV cohort study. Continued access to health services and clinical follow-up will be essential to control TB in this population.
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Late career is often seen as a more vulnerable life-stage in the labour market, in which workers may experience a deterioration in job quality. Using a life course perspective and longitudinal data, this article analyses the vulnerability associated with late career by focusing on four occupational dimensions: working-time, career continuity, retirement timing and income change. The research is carried out using data from Switzerland, a country where the age profile of the labour force is an increasing issue. The paper also adopts a cumulative disadvantage perspective to examine the impact of previous work and family life experiences on work life vulnerability at older age. Our data come from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARELIFE). The paper uses cluster analysis, sequence analysis and ordered logistic regression. Results show that women with previous family responsibilities resulting in long-term unemployment or caring, often with health complications, are more likely to be vulnerable to deterioration in job quality in late career. This suggests that experiences in the last period of the working life may be just as gendered as earlier periods.
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BACKGROUND Mental and body weight disorders are among the major global health challenges, and their comorbidity may play an important role in treatment and prevention of both pathologies. A growing number of studies have examined the relationship between psychiatric status and body weight, but our knowledge is still limited. OBJECTIVE The present study aims to investigate the cross-sectional relationships of psychiatric status and body mass index (BMI) in Málaga, a Mediterranean city in the South of Spain. MATERIALS AND METHODS A total of 563 participants were recruited from those who came to his primary care physician, using a systematic random sampling, non-proportional stratified by BMI categories. Structured clinical interviews were used to assess current Axes-I and II mental disorders according to the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition, Text Revision (DSM-IV-TR). BMI was calculated as weight (Kg) divided by square of height in meters (m2). Logistic regression was used to investigate the association between BMI and the presence of any mental disorder. BMI was introduced in the models using restricted cubic splines. RESULTS We found that high BMI values were directly associated with mood and adjustment disorders, and low BMI values were directly associated with avoidant and dependent personality disorders (PDs). We observed an inverse relationship between low BMI values and cluster A PDs. There were not significant relationships between anxiety or substance-related disorders and BMI. CONCLUSION Psychiatric status and BMI are related in a Mediterranean Spanish population. A multidisciplinary approach to both pathologies becomes increasingly more necessary.
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BACKGROUND Obesity is positively associated with colorectal cancer. Recently, body size subtypes categorised by the prevalence of hyperinsulinaemia have been defined, and metabolically healthy overweight/obese individuals (without hyperinsulinaemia) have been suggested to be at lower risk of cardiovascular disease than their metabolically unhealthy (hyperinsulinaemic) overweight/obese counterparts. Whether similarly variable relationships exist for metabolically defined body size phenotypes and colorectal cancer risk is unknown. METHODS AND FINDINGS The association of metabolically defined body size phenotypes with colorectal cancer was investigated in a case-control study nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. Metabolic health/body size phenotypes were defined according to hyperinsulinaemia status using serum concentrations of C-peptide, a marker of insulin secretion. A total of 737 incident colorectal cancer cases and 737 matched controls were divided into tertiles based on the distribution of C-peptide concentration amongst the control population, and participants were classified as metabolically healthy if below the first tertile of C-peptide and metabolically unhealthy if above the first tertile. These metabolic health definitions were then combined with body mass index (BMI) measurements to create four metabolic health/body size phenotype categories: (1) metabolically healthy/normal weight (BMI < 25 kg/m2), (2) metabolically healthy/overweight (BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2), (3) metabolically unhealthy/normal weight (BMI < 25 kg/m2), and (4) metabolically unhealthy/overweight (BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2). Additionally, in separate models, waist circumference measurements (using the International Diabetes Federation cut-points [≥80 cm for women and ≥94 cm for men]) were used (instead of BMI) to create the four metabolic health/body size phenotype categories. Statistical tests used in the analysis were all two-sided, and a p-value of <0.05 was considered statistically significant. In multivariable-adjusted conditional logistic regression models with BMI used to define adiposity, compared with metabolically healthy/normal weight individuals, we observed a higher colorectal cancer risk among metabolically unhealthy/normal weight (odds ratio [OR] = 1.59, 95% CI 1.10-2.28) and metabolically unhealthy/overweight (OR = 1.40, 95% CI 1.01-1.94) participants, but not among metabolically healthy/overweight individuals (OR = 0.96, 95% CI 0.65-1.42). Among the overweight individuals, lower colorectal cancer risk was observed for metabolically healthy/overweight individuals compared with metabolically unhealthy/overweight individuals (OR = 0.69, 95% CI 0.49-0.96). These associations were generally consistent when waist circumference was used as the measure of adiposity. To our knowledge, there is no universally accepted clinical definition for using C-peptide level as an indication of hyperinsulinaemia. Therefore, a possible limitation of our analysis was that the classification of individuals as being hyperinsulinaemic-based on their C-peptide level-was arbitrary. However, when we used quartiles or the median of C-peptide, instead of tertiles, as the cut-point of hyperinsulinaemia, a similar pattern of associations was observed. CONCLUSIONS These results support the idea that individuals with the metabolically healthy/overweight phenotype (with normal insulin levels) are at lower colorectal cancer risk than those with hyperinsulinaemia. The combination of anthropometric measures with metabolic parameters, such as C-peptide, may be useful for defining strata of the population at greater risk of colorectal cancer.
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INTRODUCTION: The aim of the present study was to assess the association between remembered previous work place environment and return to work (RTW) after hospitalisation in a rehabilitation hospital. METHODS: A cohort of 291 orthopedic trauma patients discharged from hospital between 15 December 2004 and 31 December 2005 was included in a study addressing quality of life and work-related questions. Remembered previous work environment was measured by Karasek's 31-item Job Content Questionnaire (JCQ), given to the patients during hospitalisation. Post-hospitalisation work status was assessed 3 months, 1, and 2 years after discharge, using a questionnaire sent to the ex-patients. Logistic regression models were used to test the role of four JCQ variables on RTW at each time point while controlling for relevant confounders. RESULTS: Subjects perceiving a higher physical demand were less likely to return to work 1 year after hospital discharge. Social support at work was positively associated with RTW at all time points. A high job strain appeared to be positively associated with RTW 1 year after rehabilitation, with limitations due to large confidence intervals. CONCLUSIONS: Perceptions of previous work environment may influence the probability of RTW. In a rehabilitation setting, efforts should be made to assess those perceptions and, if needed, interventions to modify them should be applied.
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BACKGROUND: Elevated serum concentrations of insulin-like growth factor (IGF)-1 have been associated with increased risk of breast cancer. Previously, we reported a similar association in samples obtained during pregnancy. The current study was conducted to further characterize the association of IGF-1 during pregnancy with maternal breast cancer risk. METHODS: A case-control study was nested within the Finnish Maternity Cohort. The study was limited to primiparous women less than 40 years of age, who donated blood samples during early (median, 12 weeks) pregnancy and delivered a single child at term. Seven hundred and nineteen women with invasive breast cancer were eligible. Two controls (n = 1,434) were matched to each case on age and date at blood donation. Serum IGF-1 concentration was measured using an Immulite 2000 analyzer. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI).RESULTS: No significant associations were observed between serum IGF-1 concentrations and breast cancer risk in both the overall analysis (OR 1.08 (95% CI 0.80-1.47) and in analyses stratified by histological subtype, lag-time to cancer diagnosis, age at pregnancy or age at diagnosis.CONCLUSIONS: There was no association between IGF-1 and maternal breast cancer risk during early pregnancy in this large nested case-control study.Impact:Serum IGF-1 concentrations during early pregnancy may not be related to maternal risk of breast cancer.
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BACKGROUND: The Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI) estimates the risk of 30-day mortality in patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE). We constructed a simplified version of the PESI. METHODS: The study retrospectively developed a simplified PESI clinical prediction rule for estimating the risk of 30-day mortality in a derivation cohort of Spanish outpatients. Simplified and original PESI performances were compared in the derivation cohort. The simplified PESI underwent retrospective external validation in an independent multinational cohort (Registro Informatizado de la Enfermedad Tromboembólica [RIETE] cohort) of outpatients. RESULTS: In the derivation data set, univariate logistic regression of the original 11 PESI variables led to the removal of variables that did not reach statistical significance and subsequently produced the simplified PESI that contained the variables of age, cancer, chronic cardiopulmonary disease, heart rate, systolic blood pressure, and oxyhemoglobin saturation levels. The prognostic accuracy of the original and simplified PESI scores did not differ (area under the curve, 0.75 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.69-0.80]). The 305 of 995 patients (30.7%) who were classified as low risk by the simplified PESI had a 30-day mortality of 1.0% (95% CI, 0.0%-2.1%) compared with 10.9% (8.5%-13.2%) in the high-risk group. In the RIETE validation cohort, 2569 of 7106 patients (36.2%) who were classified as low risk by the simplified PESI had a 30-day mortality of 1.1% (95% CI, 0.7%-1.5%) compared with 8.9% (8.1%-9.8%) in the high-risk group. CONCLUSION: The simplified PESI has similar prognostic accuracy and clinical utility and greater ease of use compared with the original PESI.
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Intrauterine devices (IUDs), long-acting and reversible contraceptives, induce a number of immunological and biochemical changes in the uterine environment that could affect endometrial cancer (EC) risk. We addressed this relationship through a pooled analysis of data collected in the Epidemiology of Endometrial Cancer Consortium. We combined individual-level data from 4 cohort and 14 case-control studies, in total 8,801 EC cases and 15,357 controls. Using multivariable logistic regression, we estimated pooled odds ratios (pooled-ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for EC risk associated with ever use, type of device, ages at first and last use, duration of use and time since last use, stratified by study and adjusted for confounders. Ever use of IUDs was inversely related to EC risk (pooled-OR = 0.81, 95% CI = 0.74-0.90). Compared with never use, reduced risk of EC was observed for inert IUDs (pooled-OR = 0.69, 95% CI = 0.58-0.82), older age at first use (≥35 years pooled-OR = 0.53, 95% CI = 0.43-0.67), older age at last use (≥45 years pooled-OR = 0.60, 95% CI = 0.50-0.72), longer duration of use (≥10 years pooled-OR = 0.61, 95% CI = 0.52-0.71) and recent use (within 1 year of study entry pooled-OR = 0.39, 95% CI = 0.30-0.49). Future studies are needed to assess the respective roles of detection biases and biologic effects related to foreign body responses in the endometrium, heavier bleeding (and increased clearance of carcinogenic cells) and localized hormonal changes.
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Data on new predictors of outcome include penumbra core or collaterals.Objective: To test the predictive value of recanalization, collaterals, penumbra and core of ischemia for functional outcome in a large group of patients with MCA occlusion. Method: Consecutive events included prospectively in the Acute Stroke Registry and Analysis of Lausanne from April 2002 to April 2009 with an acute stroke due to proximal MCA occlusion (M1) were considered for analysis. Acute CTA were reviewed to grade the collaterals (dichotomized in poor __50% or good _50% compared to the normal side) and localization of M1 occlusion (proximal or mid-distal). Acute CTP were reviewed and reconstructed to determine penumbra, core and stroke index (penumbra/penumbra_core) of brain ischemia. Good outcome was defined by mRS 0-2 at 3 months.Results: Among 242 events (115 male, mean NIHSS 18.1, SD 5.8, mean age 66, SD 15), 42% were treated with intravenous thrombolysis, and 3% with intraarterial thrombolysis. Collateral status was rated as poor in 53% of events and proximal M1 occlusion was present in 64%. Recanalization determined at 24 hours with CTA was complete in 26% events and partial/absent in 54%.CTP was available for 212 events. Mean penumbra was 88.6 cm3 (median 84.4, SD 53.8), mean core was 54.1 cm3 (median 46.2, SD 45.7) and stroke index was 64% (median 68%, SD 25%). Good outcome was observed in 87 events (36%) and was associated in multivariate logistic regression with thrombolysis (p_0.02, OR_2.5, 95% CI 1.2-5.4), recanalization (p_0.001, OR_4.1, 95% CI 1.9-8.9), lower NIHSS (p_0.001, OR_0.84, 95% CI 0.78-0.91), male gender (p_0.01, OR_2.8, 95% CI 1.3-5.9), mRS prior to stroke (p_0.02, OR_0.5, 95% CI 0.28-0.9) and good collateral status (p_0.005, OR_3, 95% CI 1.4-6.4). Nor penumbra, nor core, nor stroke index were significant in the multivariate model, even if an association was present in the univariate model between good functional outcome and penumbra (p_0.004, OR_1.008, 95% CI 1.003-1.01), core (p_0.001, OR_0.98, 95% CI 0.976-0.99) and strokeindex (p_0.001, OR_16.7, 95% CI 4.6 59.9).Conclusion: MCA recanalization is the best predictor for good functional outcome, followed by collateral status. CTP data did not predict the functional outcome in our large group of M1 occlusion. Author Disclosures: C. Odier: None. P. Michel: Research Grant; Significant; Paion, Lundbeck. Speakers; Modest; Boehringer-Ingelheim. Consultant/Advisory Board; Modest; Boehringer- Ingelheim. Consultant/Advisory Board; Significant; Servier, Lundbeck.
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Several cross-sectional studies have shown the ability of the TBS to discriminate between those with and without fractures in European populations. The aim of this study was to assess the ability of TBS to discriminate between those with and without fractures in a large female Caucasian population in the USA. This was a case-control study of 2,165 Caucasian American women aged 40 and older. Patients with illness or taking medications known to affect bone metabolism were excluded. Those in the fracture group (n = 289) had at least one low-energy fracture. BMD was measured at L1-L4, TBS calculated directly from the same DXA image. Descriptive statistics and inferential tests for difference were used. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were created to investigate possible association between independent variables and the status of fracture. Odds ratios per standard deviation decrease (OR) and areas under the ROC curve were calculated for discriminating parameters. Weak correlations were observed between TBS and BMD and between TBS and BMI (r = 0.33 and -0.17, respectively, p < 0.01). Mean age, weight, BMD and TBS were significantly different between control and fracture groups (all p ≤ 0.05), whereas no difference was noted for BMI or height. After adjusting for age, weight, BMD, smoking, and maternal and family history of fracture, TBS (but not BMD) remained a significant predictor of fracture: OR 1.28[1.13-1.46] even after adjustment. In a US female population, TBS again was able to discriminate between those with and those without fractures, even after adjusting for other clinical risk factors.
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Imatinib has revolutionised the treatment of chronic myeloid leukaemia (CML) and gastrointestinal stromal tumours (GIST). Using a nonlinear mixed effects population model, individual estimates of pharmacokinetic parameters were derived and used to estimate imatinib exposure (area under the curve, AUC) in 58 patients. Plasma-free concentration was deduced from a model incorporating plasma levels of alpha(1)-acid glycoprotein. Associations between AUC (or clearance) and response or incidence of side effects were explored by logistic regression analysis. Influence of KIT genotype was also assessed in GIST patients. Both total (in GIST) and free drug exposure (in CML and GIST) correlated with the occurrence and number of side effects (e.g. odds ratio 2.7+/-0.6 for a two-fold free AUC increase in GIST; P<0.001). Higher free AUC also predicted a higher probability of therapeutic response in GIST (odds ratio 2.6+/-1.1; P=0.026) when taking into account tumour KIT genotype (strongest association in patients harbouring exon 9 mutation or wild-type KIT, known to decrease tumour sensitivity towards imatinib). In CML, no straightforward concentration-response relationships were obtained. Our findings represent additional arguments to further evaluate the usefulness of individualizing imatinib prescription based on a therapeutic drug monitoring programme, possibly associated with target genotype profiling of patients.
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OBJECTIVE: To comprehensively assess pre-, intra-, and postoperative delirium risk factors as potential targets for intervention. BACKGROUND: Delirium after cardiac surgery is associated with longer intensive care unit (ICU) stay, and poorer functional and cognitive outcomes. Reports on delirium risk factors so far did not cover the full range of patients' presurgical conditions, intraoperative factors, and postoperative course. METHODS: After written informed consent, 221 consecutive patients ≥ 50 years scheduled for cardiac surgery were assessed for preoperative cognitive performance, and functional and physical status. Clinical and biochemical data were systematically recorded perioperatively. RESULTS: Of the 215 patients remaining for analysis, 31% developed delirium in the intensive care unit. Using logistic regression models, older age [73.3 (71.2-75.4) vs 68.5 (67.0-70.0); P = 0.016], higher Charlson's comorbidity index [3.0 (1.5-4.0) vs 2.0 (1.0-3.0) points; P = 0.009], lower Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) score (MMSE, [27 (23-29) vs 28 (27-30) points; P = 0.021], length of cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) [CPB; 133 (112-163) vs 119 (99-143) min; P = 0.004], and systemic inflammatory response syndrome in the intensive care unit [25 (36.2%) vs 13 (8.9%); P = 0.001] were independently associated with delirium. Combining age, MMSE score, Charlson's comorbidity index, and length of CPB in a regression equation allowed for a prediction of postoperative delirium with a sensitivity of 71.19% and a specificity of 76.26% (receiver operating analysis, area under the curve: 0.791; 95% confidence interval: 0.727-0.845). CONCLUSIONS: Further research will evaluate if modification of these risk factors prevents delirium and improves outcomes.
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Bone ultrasound measures (QUSs) can assess fracture risk in the elderly. We compared three QUSs and their association with nonvertebral fracture history in 7562 Swiss women 70-80 years of age. The association between nonvertebral fracture was higher for heel than phalangeal QUS. INTRODUCTION: Because of the high morbidity and mortality associated with osteoporotic fractures, it is essential to detect subjects at risk for such fractures with screening methods. Because quantitative bone ultrasound (QUS) discriminated subjects with osteoporotic fractures from controls in several cross-sectional studies and predicted fractures in prospective studies, QUS could be more practical than DXA for screening. MATERIAL AND METHODS: This cross-sectional and retrospective multicenter (10 centers) study was performed to compare three QUSs (two heel ultrasounds: Achilles+ [GE-Lunar] and Sahara [Hologic]; the phalanges: ultrasound DBM sonic 1200 [IGEA]) for determining by logistic regression nonvertebral fracture odds ratio (OR) in a sample of 7562 Swiss women, 75.3 +/- 3.1 years of age. The two heel QUSs measured the broadband ultrasound attenuation (BUA) and the speed of sound (SOS). In addition, Achilles+ calculated the stiffness index (SI) and the Sahara calculated the quantitative ultrasound index (QUI) from BUA and SOS. The DBM sonic 1200 measured the amplitude-dependent SOS (AD-SOS). RESULTS: Eighty-six women had a history of a traumatic hip fracture after the age of 50, 1594 had a history of forearm fracture, and 2016 had other nonvertebral fractures. No fracture history was reported by 3866 women. Discrimination for hip fracture was higher than for the other nonvertebral fractures. The two heel QUSs had a significantly higher discrimination power than the QUSs of the phalanges, with standardized ORs, adjusted for age and body mass index, ranging from 2.1 to 2.7 (95% CI = 1.6, 3.5) compared with 1.4 (95% CI = 1.1, 1.7) for the AD-SOS of DBM sonic 1200. CONCLUSION: This study showed a high association between heel QUS and hip fracture history in elderly Swiss women. This could justify integration of QUS among screening strategies for identifying elderly women at risk for osteoporotic fractures.
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INTRODUCTION: Several studies have shown an increased risk of type 2 diabetes among smokers. Therefore, the aim of this analysis was to assess the relationship between smoking, cumulative smoking exposure and nicotine dependence with pre-diabetes. METHODS: We performed a cross-sectional analysis of healthy adults aged 25-41 in the Principality of Liechtenstein. Individuals with known diabetes, Body Mass Index (BMI) >35 kg/m² and prevalent cardiovascular disease were excluded. Smoking behaviour was assessed by self-report. Pre-diabetes was defined as glycosylated haemoglobin between 5.7% and 6.4%. Multivariable logistic regression models were done. RESULTS: Of the 2142 participants (median age 37 years), 499 (23.3%) had pre-diabetes. There were 1,168 (55%) never smokers, 503 (23%) past smokers and 471 (22%) current smokers, with a prevalence of pre-diabetes of 21.2%, 20.9% and 31.2%, respectively (p <0.0001). In multivariable regression models, current smokers had an odds ratio (OR) of pre-diabetes of 1.82 (95% confidential interval (CI) 1.39; 2.38, p <0.0001). Individuals with a smoking exposure of <5, 5-10 and >10 pack-years had an OR (95% CI) for pre-diabetes of 1.34 (0.90; 2.00), 1.80 (1.07; 3.01) and 2.51 (1.80; 3.59) (p linear trend <0.0001) compared with never smokers. A Fagerström score of 2, 3-5 and >5 among current smokers was associated with an OR (95% CI) for pre-diabetes of 1.27 (0.89; 1.82), 2.15 (1.48; 3.13) and 3.35 (1.73; 6.48) (p linear trend <0.0001). DISCUSSION: Smoking is strongly associated with pre-diabetes in young adults with a low burden of smoking exposure. Nicotine dependence could be a potential mechanism of this relationship.