BAYESIAN PHASE I DOSE FINDING IN CANCER TRIALS

This dissertation explores phase I dose-finding designs in cancer trials from three perspectives: the alternative Bayesian dose-escalation rules, a design based on a time-to-dose-limiting toxicity (DLT) model, and a design based on a discrete-time multi-state (DTMS) model. We list alternative Bayesian dose-escalation rules and perform a simulation study for the intra-rule and inter-rule comparisons based on two statistical models to identify the most appropriate rule under certain scenarios. We provide evidence that all the Bayesian rules outperform the traditional ``3+3'' design in the allocation of patients and selection of the maximum tolerated dose. The design based on a time-to-DLT model uses patients' DLT information over multiple treatment cycles in estimating the probability of DLT at the end of treatment cycle 1. Dose-escalation decisions are made whenever a cycle-1 DLT occurs, or two months after the previous check point. Compared to the design based on a logistic regression model, the new design shows more safety benefits for trials in which more late-onset toxicities are expected. As a trade-off, the new design requires more patients on average. The design based on a discrete-time multi-state (DTMS) model has three important attributes: (1) Toxicities are categorized over a distribution of severity levels, (2) Early toxicity may inform dose escalation, and (3) No suspension is required between accrual cohorts. The proposed model accounts for the difference in the importance of the toxicity severity levels and for transitions between toxicity levels. We compare the operating characteristics of the proposed design with those from a similar design based on a fully-evaluated model that directly models the maximum observed toxicity level within the patients' entire assessment window. We describe settings in which, under comparable power, the proposed design shortens the trial. The proposed design offers more benefit compared to the alternative design as patient accrual becomes slower.

Development of a Bayesian Joint Logistic Model to Better Study the Association between Haplotypes and Disease

In 2011, there will be an estimated 1,596,670 new cancer cases and 571,950 cancer-related deaths in the US. With the ever-increasing applications of cancer genetics in epidemiology, there is great potential to identify genetic risk factors that would help identify individuals with increased genetic susceptibility to cancer, which could be used to develop interventions or targeted therapies that could hopefully reduce cancer risk and mortality. In this dissertation, I propose to develop a new statistical method to evaluate the role of haplotypes in cancer susceptibility and development. This model will be flexible enough to handle not only haplotypes of any size, but also a variety of covariates. I will then apply this method to three cancer-related data sets (Hodgkin Disease, Glioma, and Lung Cancer). I hypothesize that there is substantial improvement in the estimation of association between haplotypes and disease, with the use of a Bayesian mathematical method to infer haplotypes that uses prior information from known genetics sources. Analysis based on haplotypes using information from publically available genetic sources generally show increased odds ratios and smaller p-values in both the Hodgkin, Glioma, and Lung data sets. For instance, the Bayesian Joint Logistic Model (BJLM) inferred haplotype TC had a substantially higher estimated effect size (OR=12.16, 95% CI = 2.47-90.1 vs. 9.24, 95% CI = 1.81-47.2) and more significant p-value (0.00044 vs. 0.008) for Hodgkin Disease compared to a traditional logistic regression approach. Also, the effect sizes of haplotypes modeled with recessive genetic effects were higher (and had more significant p-values) when analyzed with the BJLM. Full genetic models with haplotype information developed with the BJLM resulted in significantly higher discriminatory power and a significantly higher Net Reclassification Index compared to those developed with haplo.stats for lung cancer. Future analysis for this work could be to incorporate the 1000 Genomes project, which offers a larger selection of SNPs can be incorporated into the information from known genetic sources as well. Other future analysis include testing non-binary outcomes, like the levels of biomarkers that are present in lung cancer (NNK), and extending this analysis to full GWAS studies.

A Hierarchical Bayesian Model for Measuring Motion Adaptation

Previous research has shown that motion imagery draws on the same neural circuits that are involved in perception of motion, thus leading to a motion aftereffect (Winawer et al., 2010). Imagined stimuli can induce a similar shift in participants’ psychometric functions as neural adaptation due to a perceived stimulus. However, these studies have been criticized on the grounds that they fail to exclude the possibility that the subjects might have guessed the experimental hypothesis, and behaved accordingly (Morgan et al., 2012). In particular, the authors claim that participants can adopt arbitrary response criteria, which results in similar changes of the central tendency μ of psychometric curves as those shown by Winawer et al. (2010).

Sequential updating via dynamic hierarchical models: A Bayesian approach to longitudinal data analysis

Most statistical analysis, theory and practice, is concerned with static models; models with a proposed set of parameters whose values are fixed across observational units. Static models implicitly assume that the quantified relationships remain the same across the design space of the data. While this is reasonable under many circumstances this can be a dangerous assumption when dealing with sequentially ordered data. The mere passage of time always brings fresh considerations and the interrelationships among parameters, or subsets of parameters, may need to be continually revised. ^ When data are gathered sequentially dynamic interim monitoring may be useful as new subject-specific parameters are introduced with each new observational unit. Sequential imputation via dynamic hierarchical models is an efficient strategy for handling missing data and analyzing longitudinal studies. Dynamic conditional independence models offers a flexible framework that exploits the Bayesian updating scheme for capturing the evolution of both the population and individual effects over time. While static models often describe aggregate information well they often do not reflect conflicts in the information at the individual level. Dynamic models prove advantageous over static models in capturing both individual and aggregate trends. Computations for such models can be carried out via the Gibbs sampler. An application using a small sample repeated measures normally distributed growth curve data is presented. ^

β1 integrins regulate myoblast fusion and sarcomere assembly

The mechanisms that regulate the formation of multinucleated muscle fibers from mononucleated myoblasts are not well understood. We show here that extracellular matrix (ECM) receptors of the beta1 integrin family regulate myoblast fusion. beta1-deficient myoblasts adhere to each other, but plasma membrane breakdown is defective. The integrin-associated tetraspanin CD9 that regulates cell fusion is no longer expressed at the cell surface of beta1-deficient myoblasts, suggesting that beta1 integrins regulate the formation of a protein complex important for fusion. Subsequent to fusion, beta1 integrins are required for the assembly of sarcomeres. Other ECM receptors such as the dystrophin glycoprotein complex are still expressed but cannot compensate for the loss of beta1 integrins, providing evidence that different ECM receptors have nonredundant functions in skeletal muscle fibers.

Biodiversity effects on nitrate concentrations in soil solution: a Bayesian model

Ecosystems are faced with high rates of species loss which has consequences for their functions and services. To assess the effects of plant species diversity on the nitrogen (N) cycle, we developed a model for monthly mean nitrate (NO3-N) concentrations in soil solution in 0-30 cm mineral soil depth using plant species and functional group richness and functional composition as drivers and assessing the effects of conversion of arable land to grassland, spatially heterogeneous soil properties, and climate. We used monthly mean NO3-N concentrations from 62 plots of a grassland plant diversity experiment from 2003 to 2006. Plant species richness (1-60) and functional group composition (1-4 functional groups: legumes, grasses, non-leguminous tall herbs, non-leguminous small herbs) were manipulated in a factorial design. Plant community composition, time since conversion from arable land to grassland, soil texture, and climate data (precipitation, soil moisture, air and soil temperature) were used to develop one general Bayesian multiple regression model for the 62 plots to allow an in-depth evaluation using the experimental design. The model simulated NO3-N concentrations with an overall Bayesian coefficient of determination of 0.48. The temporal course of NO3-N concentrations was simulated differently well for the individual plots with a maximum plot-specific Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency of 0.57. The model shows that NO3-N concentrations decrease with species richness, but this relation reverses if more than approx. 25 % of legume species are included in the mixture. Presence of legumes increases and presence of grasses decreases NO3-N concentrations compared to mixtures containing only small and tall herbs. Altogether, our model shows that there is a strong influence of plant community composition on NO3-N concentrations.

An Early-Warning System for Hypo-/Hyperglycemic Events Based on Fusion of Adaptive Prediction Models

Introduction: Early warning of future hypoglycemic and hyperglycemic events can improve the safety of type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) patients. The aim of this study is to design and evaluate a hypoglycemia / hyperglycemia early warning system (EWS) for T1DM patients under sensor-augmented pump (SAP) therapy. Methods: The EWS is based on the combination of data-driven online adaptive prediction models and a warning algorithm. Three modeling approaches have been investigated: (i) autoregressive (ARX) models, (ii) auto-regressive with an output correction module (cARX) models, and (iii) recurrent neural network (RNN) models. The warning algorithm performs postprocessing of the models′ outputs and issues alerts if upcoming hypoglycemic/hyperglycemic events are detected. Fusion of the cARX and RNN models, due to their complementary prediction performances, resulted in the hybrid autoregressive with an output correction module/recurrent neural network (cARN)-based EWS. Results: The EWS was evaluated on 23 T1DM patients under SAP therapy. The ARX-based system achieved hypoglycemic (hyperglycemic) event prediction with median values of accuracy of 100.0% (100.0%), detection time of 10.0 (8.0) min, and daily false alarms of 0.7 (0.5). The respective values for the cARX-based system were 100.0% (100.0%), 17.5 (14.8) min, and 1.5 (1.3) and, for the RNN-based system, were 100.0% (92.0%), 8.4 (7.0) min, and 0.1 (0.2). The hybrid cARN-based EWS presented outperforming results with 100.0% (100.0%) prediction accuracy, detection 16.7 (14.7) min in advance, and 0.8 (0.8) daily false alarms. Conclusion: Combined use of cARX and RNN models for the development of an EWS outperformed the single use of each model, achieving accurate and prompt event prediction with few false alarms, thus providing increased safety and comfort.

Improved Localization of Implanted Subdural Electrode Contacts on MRI Using an Elastic Image Fusion Algorithm in Invasive EEG Recording

BACKGROUND: Accurate projection of implanted subdural electrode contacts in presurgical evaluation of pharmacoresistant epilepsy cases by invasive EEG is highly relevant. Linear fusion of CT and MRI images may display the contacts in the wrong position due to brain shift effects. OBJECTIVE: A retrospective study in five patients with pharmacoresistant epilepsy was performed to evaluate whether an elastic image fusion algorithm can provide a more accurate projection of the electrode contacts on the pre-implantation MRI as compared to linear fusion. METHODS: An automated elastic image fusion algorithm (AEF), a guided elastic image fusion algorithm (GEF), and a standard linear fusion algorithm (LF) were used on preoperative MRI and post-implantation CT scans. Vertical correction of virtual contact positions, total virtual contact shift, corrections of midline shift and brain shifts due to pneumencephalus were measured. RESULTS: Both AEF and GEF worked well with all 5 cases. An average midline shift of 1.7mm (SD 1.25) was corrected to 0.4mm (SD 0.8) after AEF and to 0.0mm (SD 0) after GEF. Median virtual distances between contacts and cortical surface were corrected by a significant amount, from 2.3mm after LF to 0.0mm after AEF and GEF (p<.001). Mean total relative corrections of 3.1 mm (SD 1.85) after AEF and 3.0mm (SD 1.77) after GEF were achieved. The tested version of GEF did not achieve a satisfying virtual correction of pneumencephalus. CONCLUSION: The technique provided a clear improvement in fusion of pre- and post-implantation scans, although the accuracy is difficult to evaluate.

A new Bayesian approach to the reconstruction of spectral functions

We present a novel approach for the reconstruction of spectra from Euclidean correlator data that makes close contact to modern Bayesian concepts. It is based upon an axiomatically justified dimensionless prior distribution, which in the case of constant prior function m(ω) only imprints smoothness on the reconstructed spectrum. In addition we are able to analytically integrate out the only relevant overall hyper-parameter α in the prior, removing the necessity for Gaussian approximations found e.g. in the Maximum Entropy Method. Using a quasi-Newton minimizer and high-precision arithmetic, we are then able to find the unique global extremum of P[ρ|D] in the full Nω » Nτ dimensional search space. The method actually yields gradually improving reconstruction results if the quality of the supplied input data increases, without introducing artificial peak structures, often encountered in the MEM. To support these statements we present mock data analyses for the case of zero width delta peaks and more realistic scenarios, based on the perturbative Euclidean Wilson Loop as well as the Wilson Line correlator in Coulomb gauge.

Benchmarking the Bayesian reconstruction of the non-perturbative heavy ǪǬ potential

The extraction of the finite temperature heavy quark potential from lattice QCD relies on a spectral analysis of the real-time Wilson loop. Through its position and shape, the lowest lying spectral peak encodes the real and imaginary part of this complex potential. We benchmark this extraction strategy using leading order hard-thermal loop (HTL) calculations. I.e. we analytically calculate the Wilson loop and determine the corresponding spectrum. By fitting its lowest lying peak we obtain the real- and imaginary part and confirm that the knowledge of the lowest peak alone is sufficient for obtaining the potential. We deploy a novel Bayesian approach to the reconstruction of spectral functions to HTL correlators in Euclidean time and observe how well the known spectral function and values for the real and imaginary part are reproduced. Finally we apply the method to quenched lattice QCD data and perform an improved estimate of both real and imaginary part of the non-perturbative heavy ǪǬ potential.

Landmark Detection for Fusion of Fundus and MRI Towards a Patient-Specific Multi-Modal Eye Model

Ophthalmologists typically acquire different image modalities to diagnose eye pathologies. They comprise e.g., Fundus photography, Optical Coherence Tomography (OCT), Computed Tomography (CT) and Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI). Yet, these images are often complementary and do express the same pathologies in a different way. Some pathologies are only visible in a particular modality. Thus, it is beneficial for the ophthalmologist to have these modalities fused into a single patient-specific model. The presented article’s goal is a fusion of Fundus photography with segmented MRI volumes. This adds information to MRI which was not visible before like vessels and the macula. This article’s contributions include automatic detection of the optic disc, the fovea, the optic axis and an automatic segmentation of the vitreous humor of the eye.

Novel Prodrug-Like Fusion Toxin with Protease-Sensitive Bioorthogonal PEGylation for Tumor Targeting

Highly potent biotoxins like Pseudomonas exotoxin A (ETA) are attractive payloads for tumor targeting. However, despite replacement of the natural cell-binding domain of ETA by tumor-selective antibodies or alternative binding proteins like designed ankyrin repeat proteins (DARPins) the therapeutic window of such fusion toxins is still limited by target-independent cellular uptake, resulting in toxicity in normal tissues. Furthermore, the strong immunogenicity of the bacterial toxin precludes repeated administration in most patients. Site-specific modification to convert ETA into a prodrug-like toxin which is reactivated specifically in the tumor, and at the same time has a longer circulation half-life and is less immunogenic, is therefore appealing. To engineer a prodrug-like fusion toxin consisting of the anti-EpCAM DARPin Ec1 and a domain I-deleted variant of ETA (ETA″), we used strain-promoted azide alkyne cycloaddition for bioorthogonal conjugation of linear or branched polyethylene glycol (PEG) polymers at defined positions within the toxin moiety. Reversibility of the shielding was provided by a designed peptide linker containing the cleavage site for the rhinovirus 3C model protease. We identified two distinct sites, one within the catalytic domain and one close to the C-terminal KDEL sequence of Ec1-ETA″, simultaneous PEGylation of which resulted in up to 1000-fold lower cytotoxicity in EpCAM-positive tumor cells. Importantly, the potency of the fusion toxin was fully restored by proteolytic unveiling. Upon systemic administration in mice, PEGylated Ec1-ETA″ was much better tolerated than Ec1-ETA″; it showed a longer circulation half-life and an almost 10-fold increased area under the curve (AUC). Our strategy of engineering prodrug-like fusion toxins by bioorthogonal veiling opens new possibilities for targeting tumors with more specificity and efficacy.